Noob Question - NFP was great today, so why did EURUSD rise? | Forex Factory

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Noob Question - NFP was great today, so why did EURUSD rise?

  • #1
  • First Post: May 3, 2019 1:00pm May 3, 2019 1:00pm
Hi everyone,

I thought I already knew a lot about the Forex markets, but it seems I'm wrong: for example with EURUSD, EUR is the base currency, USD the quote currency.
If the US economy is _stronger_ than the EUR economy, we expect EURUSD to go down, right? Because with time, you get less and less USD for 1 EUR.

Anyway, today was NFP and some other US news, and the numbers were good:

Yahoo Finance:
Quote
"Job creation smashes expectations, unemployment rate falls to 49-year low"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/april...l?guccounter=1


So why then did EURUSD go UP this afternoon during the news? And GBPUSD too. Is it because the expectations of the financial analysts were higher than the actual numbers? So despite the good US economy numbers, it still was a disappointment?
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  • #2
  • May 3, 2019 4:37pm May 3, 2019 4:37pm
For me, it was just a simple stop hunt or literally the majority of the people went short and the market went way around.
(We could have reached extreme levels of low and it was perfect to go long)

Do not rely on the news too much, because there are things blindly fall into and too biased
I make perfect trades. But terribly manage it
  • #3
  • May 3, 2019 5:33pm May 3, 2019 5:33pm
Quoting ForestX
For me, it was just a simple stop hunt or literally the majority of the people went short and the market went way around. (We could have reached extreme levels of low and it was perfect to go long) Do not rely on the news too much, because there are things blindly fall into and too biased
Maybe EurUsd shorts didn't want to hold over the weekend and closed their positions thus pushing the pair higher.. maybe..
  • #4
  • May 4, 2019 1:35am May 4, 2019 1:35am
You're right, NFP hardly did anything. In fact, the dollar went down first on the good news, then reversed later. Around noon eastern time is when the dollar really dropped, I figured it had to be the Fed talks. If I wanted to know "Why?" I would look at that.
  • #5
  • May 4, 2019 5:55am May 4, 2019 5:55am
The number itself doesn't matter, the only thing that matters is how the market interprets it. That being said i don't think fundamental analysis is useless, on the contrary, it moves the price, just interpretations like 'oh red number euro will fall' are childish. This isn't the first time nfp did this and it won't be the last, same goes with every 'high impact' news.
  • #6
  • May 4, 2019 6:26am May 4, 2019 6:26am
Quoting bippo
Hi everyone, I thought I already knew a lot about the Forex markets, but it seems I'm wrong: for example with EURUSD, EUR is the base currency, USD the quote currency. If the US economy is _stronger_ than the EUR economy, we expect EURUSD to go down, right? Because with time, you get less and less USD for 1 EUR. Anyway, today was NFP and some other US news, and the numbers were good: Yahoo Finance: {quote} https://finance.yahoo.com/news/april...l?guccounter=1 So why then did EURUSD go UP this afternoon during...
this is not a noob question but its a naive question if it was really question not some sort of "games "

if anyone can know why the reversal happens that mean hes a king of trading and maybe he has millions and billions ooof dollars
such a guy wont be here for sure giving you answers that if he do exist ofc because i think noone in the world can make money with fx unless he was an ad from the game owners

cheers
  • #7
  • May 4, 2019 6:40am May 4, 2019 6:40am
Simple, the fed are focused on inflation and employment on its own doesn't translate into inflation pressure, wages however does and those prints were worse than expected. This is why the dollar initially appreciated then started losing. All the face value news traders thought it was super and bought but the smart money, the ones that know what the fed are looking at, sold and so all the face value traders were taken to the cleaners.
  • #8
  • May 4, 2019 7:15am May 4, 2019 7:15am
Quoting EcoTrader
Simple, the fed are focused on inflation and employment on its own doesn't translate into inflation pressure, wages however does and those prints were worse than expected. This is why the dollar initially appreciated then started losing. All the face value news traders thought it was super and bought but the smart money, the ones that know what the fed are looking at, sold and so all the face value traders were taken to the cleaners.
i am learning so much from you
i think this is a joke do you feel it

btw, how much millions did you make so far with the smart money boys ?
  • #9
  • May 4, 2019 7:51am May 4, 2019 7:51am
The real question would be, why did the dollar fall in relation to all other currencies, including Russian ruble and a little, Turkish lira?

The decline began before some Fed commentary.

I do not see the other answer except for the joint activities of large banks.

The explanation with the technical levels does not pass the test.

p.s. I do not like the theory of conspiracy, but this is Forex
  • #10
  • May 4, 2019 7:53am May 4, 2019 7:53am
Quoting dicojoxaftr
{quote} i am learning so much from you i think this is a joke do you feel it btw, how much millions did you make so far with the smart money boys ?
Mate, EcoTrader knows his fundamentals and has been posting for quite a while with solid knolwdge.
Juat because the crappy ea you posted in the commercial thread isn't drawing in the suckers like you hoped, and your "quit the game noobs" threads in the rookie section aren't attracting the attention you wanted. Maybe you should stfu and listen to someone who actually knows what they are talking about. Or if that's to hard, you could take your own advise and quit the game. Thanks.
  • #11
  • Edited 9:05am May 4, 2019 8:44am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting dicojoxaftr
{quote} i am learning so much from you i think this is a joke do you feel it btw, how much millions did you make so far with the smart money boys ?
If you bothered to digest their communication instead of assuming then you too would know. It's not rocket science but laziness to read what major influences are doing and thinking. Quoted sentences directly from fomc communication.

"Growth of household spending and business fixed investment slowed in the first quarter" note household spending

"market-based measures of inflation compensation have remained low in recent months" mention of inflation low (mentioned several times in the statement)

" In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes." mentioned again.

And here's the kicker that people who can't be bothered to read their communication miss and why they were slaughtered on nfp

"Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low." now does this sound like a concern given their mandate? If they were concerned and the job number was good then $ would have appreciated.

"the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective" so here again they make it clear they have 2 objectives and one of them is already fulfilled. Can you guess which one isn't and why wages played a part in $ selling off?
  • #12
  • May 4, 2019 9:40am May 4, 2019 9:40am
Quoting BubaYaga
{quote} Mate, EcoTrader knows his fundamentals and has been posting for quite a while with solid knolwdge. Juat because the crappy ea you posted in the commercial thread isn't drawing in the suckers like you hoped, and your "quit the game noobs" threads in the rookie section aren't attracting the attention you wanted. Maybe you should stfu and listen to someone who actually knows what they are talking about. Or if that's to hard, you could take your own advise and quit the game. Thanks.
listen noobs this is exactly how noobs with a high degree play the game,
noobs follow predictions and in most of time their predictions are based on public information

only smart ppl can understand this and agree on it
its not about what you know, read or think, its all about what you can prove cheers
  • #13
  • May 4, 2019 11:03am May 4, 2019 11:03am
" its all about what you can prove " --- tho i dont like that idiot , he's Right on that 1 - - - - PROVE

___________ go check my 1767 post , there u Will find proof - All in Advance Trades on Genuine LIVE Charts - many2 of them , check it out !

_____ just recently i stopped throwin freee bones ooops i mean trades here on ff , cuz they were Not willing to share their profits with d RedCross

______ i dont like greedy MF's period
da n0o0b + $hit_Disturber
  • #14
  • May 4, 2019 1:41pm May 4, 2019 1:41pm
Quoting pipsy7
" its all about what you can prove " --- tho i dont like that idiot , he's Right on that 1 - - - - PROVE ___________ go check my 1767 post , there u Will find proof - All in Advance Trades on Genuine LIVE Charts - many2 of them , check it out ! _____ just recently i stopped throwin freee bones ooops i mean trades here on ff , cuz they were Not willing to share their profits with d RedCross ______ i dont like greedy MF's period

looks like you mean that you are a profitable trader !!, right prettyboy ?
to prove it, start a new thread, post what you see as a good and profitable trade before it happen, and if you got some consistently over time, you win i lose, its simple like that

anyway i'm sure you wont do that because you cant do it, so save your time and dont write any other pretension

did he said that he stop throwing bones do he have dogs trading assets ?

what a world man, if we look at the mirror we see that we are all the same, but if we have a bone we will see that we are geniuses and nobody looks the same as we look humans are stupid, weak and disgusting, i mean humans like this one pipsy7
  • #15
  • Last Post: May 5, 2019 10:25am May 5, 2019 10:25am
Quoting dicojoxaftr
{quote} looks like you mean that you are a profitable trader !!, right prettyboy ? to prove it, start a new thread, post what you see as a good and profitable trade before it happen, and if you got some consistently over time, you win i lose, its simple like that anyway i'm sure you wont do that because you cant do it, so save your time and dont write any other pretension did he said that he stop throwing bones do he have dogs trading assets ? what a world man, if we look at the mirror we see that we are all the same, but...
_____________ lol
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da n0o0b + $hit_Disturber
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