Dbrown101's Training Wheels

Hello DBrown,

Those are good posts to remind where we have been and actually are.

I always start my mission analysis with Daily charts and economic calendar.
Importantly, as regards the "full force" term, to me it's a size which is still manageable in terms of contingencies.
I would deploy all the army if I knew my counterpart for 100%. But I never do so since the market is always a matter of probabilities and we need a strategic reserve. Have we also been in situation with all prerequisites in line (Candles, patterns, trends -Daily, hourly, 15, 5, 1MIN, confirmed by recce in the field) and... a spring/ upthrust occurred.
And yet, we may see our successful - bold colleagues being always favored by fortune. Victories are achieved through a thorough preparation, proper execution, commander's charisma and skills and ... luck.

Trade safe,
Exnav

exnav,

Thanks for the reply!


I do this too. I start with 3k's/7ks to see if i can catch market bias, then i check the news (just starting to dig into fundamentals). Then I do a top down approach from daily to hourly to 5 min. Its good to have an wide overall view of the market i think.


I am in agreement with you. never trade more than you can manage in case of counter move. Even fti mentions in that post above about the attack sequence that all 20 positions can be at a loss.


This is why I highlighted that attack sequence post. what i read from it is since the Daily, hourly, and 5 min are all flowing in the same direction the probabilities are are higher in that direction as all the TF are saying the same thing...like currents to a river or ocean. sometimes currents cross and impede each others flow. other times they sync up and create an even stronger push.


it is good to remember that even in the event of these higher probability situations...nothing is set in stone. Nothing is infallible.

thank you exnav

this is what Im looking at now
complex H+S on h1

running stops as we speak. will look for retrace to get long.

eur/usd H1 changed to uptrend. 5m now in open range

recap of PA analysis in eur...

Complex head and shoulders (multiple shoulders ) confirmed yesterday with an impulsive break of the Neckline...which confirmed the change in the H1 trend, The retrace of the break formed a pennant (bullish pattern) which tested the level that the Pin bar in the yellow circle had touched and bounced away. Notice the price didnt make it back to the neckline signaling to me weakness in the bears. price did a small bounce after the pennant off that level and returned to create a double bottom (bullish) before marching upward , confirming the bias that the pennant had given me. lots of bullish price action in this pic.

There were lots of signals the trend was changing last week as well. Notice the bull impulse creating the right side of the Head showing that the bulls were around. that push formed a symmetrical triangle at the neckline (continuation or reversal). It ended up being a reversal of the bullish move but failed to retest the previous lows, creating a higher low (another clue to the changing trend). Interesting to note that the H1 trend line had broken a couple days before all this started forming...which gave even more technical weight that the trend had changed.

Yep. Fti teachings. Good, old, classical Technical Analysis.
Train your mind to see. Well done, good job.

Now: action and control. Always in control.

About control.
Never forget the Lesson.
fti #48908 - TAF - With the Market you are either on her flow or you are on the platter.

sharks play? ducks roasted.... dragging them deep if they're still hanging on
h1 trendline still holding

Just wanted to post these words so they are here to reflect on. Thank you to Phil and Franco for leading me to this.

THE BANDWAGON THEORY: A GLIMPSE AT HOW THE MARKET REALLY WORKS
Imagine a bandwagon that is rolling forward at a quickened pace. Music
that is very pleasing to the ear is being played from speakers on each side
of this bandwagon, and a few people currently on the back of the wagon
are partying, having the time of their lives. The music, loud and clear,
starts to attract many other onlookers that happen to be idly standing on
the sidelines. These onlookers, unable to resist the sweet sounds being
played, run to join the party that seems to be going on. Progressively,
more and more onlookers jump on the back of this bandwagon, and
those few who were initially enjoying the first phase of the party begin to
leave. As the crowd of new party animals on this bandwagon grows
larger, the bandwagon finds it harder and harder to move forward at the
same pace. It slows, enabling more and more late onlookers, witnessing
the great fun, the chance to jump on. The crowd grows even larger.
Larger and larger this crowd grows, until the bandwagon, heavily laden
with the bodies of drunken party animals, can no longer move forward.
It finally comes to a complete stop. Now that the bandwagon is at a com-
plete standstill, more people jump on. And why not? At this point, joining
the fun is easy. Absolutely no work is required, for individuals wanting
to join the crowd no longer have to run to jump on board. But the nature
of the bandwagon is to move forward. Its motionless state is unnatural,
and therefore cannot last. It tries to move forward again, but can’t. The
crowd, piled on back, is much too large. It must free itself of the heavy
burden. And it does. It quickly shifts into reverse, and jolts backward,
knocking a few of the party animals off the back. The music stops. Puz-
zled faces from the crowd begin to emerge. Before anyone figures out
what’s going on, another backward jerk takes place, only this one is more
violent. Another large group of people gets thrown off the back. Now, re-
ality sets in. The fun has turned into a nightmare of epic proportions, and
panic begins to run rampant. Some decide to jump to their deaths. An-
other thrust backwards sends an even larger group of drunken, off-
balance people, hurling to the muddy ground. It doesn’t stop. The jolts
backward continue, each successive one more violent than the last. At
this point, only a few die-hard wagon dwellers are holding on, their very
lives hanging in the balance by a very thin thread. Failing to be com-
pletely free, the bandwagon angrily puts the pedal to the metal, and this
final thrust backward is so vicious that its front wheels lift high off the
ground, momentarily suspending the wagon in a perpendicular posi-
tion. The last of the hangers-on crash to the ground, broken and maimed
to no end. At this point, a new group of onlookers emerge from the
nearby woods. They are clean and serene. Each movement they make is
deliberate and powerfully energetic, for they did not take part in the
tragedy that just transpired. Or did they? A few of the dejected souls ly-
ing on the ground take a closer look, a look that reveals something very
interesting. This seemingly new group is not new at all. It is the same
group that was seen quietly exiting the party before it came to its violent
end. An even closer examination by a few more beaten-down onlookers
reveals something even more stunning. This group not only exited the
party early, they were the originators of it! “My God,” someone exclaims.
Paralyzed, and unable to move freely, all these dejected souls can do is
watch, as the masters of the game go to work, again. No sooner does the
bandwagon’s wheels hit the ground than this professional platoon bolts
for the wagon. In a flash they are on board. Easy. The bandwagon, now
free of the larger crowd, can move forward freely and gracefully, com-
fortably carrying the more astute group with it. Its pace quickens, and
before long a smooth elegant stride is in place. After a few miles of unin-
terrupted movement, someone from this masterful group flips on a
switch, and suddenly the loud sounds of entertaining music start again.
Someone yells, “OK everyone. Here they come. Let’s do it again.” Within
moments, those who were the former victims of the backward crash be-
come interested again. The music almost calling them from the grave.
And once more, the never-ending cycle repeats.

wanted to share this trade for multiple reasons...

First when I opened up my charts I checked 3k-7k....they seemed mixed with the majority being bullish dollar. Gbp 5m trend was up and it seemed that it was in retrace mode so I entered scout long (first green circle) .scout was playing well so I entered small attack at second green circle. then the bears came in directly after my entry and I noticed it was a strong push. so I switched back to my 7k charts and noticed that all the majors were lining up to be bullish dollar. It then appeared to me that the GBP and eur were lining up for h1 trend impulse. so I cut at orange square and flipped with a smaller exposure. I managed to make some of the losses back but squared too early as I was caught out of step. I wanted to get back in but Im always afraid that I missed the boat and the moment I re-enter it'll go against me again. This is something I need to deal with. As Stated before in my thread " its never too late to buy an uptrend or too late to sell a downtrend". especially when the 5m trend has lined up with h1 and d1 because you'll have the wind at your back.

lessons learned with this trade...

1. always be aware of 3k-7k bias. try not to trade against the majority bias..choose a pair that is in line with it.
2. when flipping from a small exposure consider fti recommendation of last size+ next level up in the fib sequence. to recover quickly
3. shouldve allowed the flipped position to run as it was Impulsive move with increasing volitility.
4. even when i exited early . couldve gotten in at the retrace at the bottom.

lessons 2-4 have to do with an aspect of fear that I need to deal with... The fear that my judgement is wrong. or that Im making an error on my assessment of terrain/changing conditions. definitely something I need to get over. In all actuality I am usually right and feel like I have good instincts in knowing whether Ive made a bad choice or not.

Hello DBrown,

Thank you for your demonstration. Flipping requires the utmost flexibility and flow/ chart reading skill. Of course it's much easier if positions are yet small and it was a pre-planned design (... if PA turns and moves swiftly...) . In fact, it's already a kind of contingency action. Fear is a natural thingy for a human being. In case of... we need an exact actions plan. Not making it all a fire on a sinking ship but maintaining your fire extinguishing and water fighting system and team in good order and well trained. For those matters we must train and check time by time. I like Phil13 method of putting yourself to the uttermost scenarios to build the necessary skills as well as your confidence.
Fixing the contingency plans (own COAs) in my head may help with the fear-dealing.

Best regards,
Exnav

exnav,

Yes...fear is natural..something we all must overcome. contingency plans help with that fear quite a bit. I do have an issue with bailing out because of fear instead of utilizing my other contingency options (although bailing is one option). something I must overcome. all apart of the learning process.

7k is usd bull. euro double topping near trend line. a little late to the dance though

newsy week...

...if you flip at same nos you have in, you put a lock on the trade in effect limiting the loss amount but locking that in too ... not sure if that will help you or not.......

FTI:
But remember when you flip positions, do it only if you "experiencing" high momentum . Otherwise can get "screwed" both positions. The timing is crucial.

When i detect impulse against my blotter i respond. In so far as flips, never more than 2 times. 3rd one already means its shitty , very very high skews already. There's no way be on 2 buses.

Alex

alex,

unfortunately in the US there is no hedging so I cant lock....well there are ways around it as I have discussed with Phil(opening up a separate account in order to trade opposite ways). something I may look into in the future. I agree with fti and I believe thats what I experienced in that trade. I felt momentum increasing and the pictures changing. luckily I caught wind of it before it took me too deep.

Did not know that re lock...

The higher time frame probably told the story...... I stopped calling it flip as I did not like the term - I call it reverse into trend and this seems to help me. I sometimes get into trouble re higher time frame trend versus now trend.




Alex

yes the h1 tf + 7k cued me into what was happening. Made me realize that all things were against my position (except maybe the 5m trend hadnt officially changed according to my definition of trend. but being against 1h trend (my rules dictate that i must be nimble and ready to flip) and against 7k and against increasing momentum...which i noticed on all pairs. Just didnt feel right...this is part of the feel I believe fti was eluding to. I also agree on the term flip....i prefer realigning or rescuing into trend. i feel just the difference of terms creates a better mindset. I also agree with not flipping more than 2 times. that usually indicated that you are trading assassin (broadening pattern). although I havent encountered this often.

now trend seems to still be up. troops bleeding

a break in the upper horizontal line and I might bail and realign. put L3 in @1165

my avg 1158.5

Hello Dbrown,

That's right. I believe that it should come naturally along with our experience. Each trade must bring some input in order to evolve (I don't mean only profits).
E.g., I am now working on the point of increasing sizes (thus on You, my mindset). Meanwhile listening to the Fti's words: don't force,... stay at least a year in your comfort zone... it takes 5 to 8 years.. start with 5 cents...

Best regards,
Exnav

looks like possible topping on m1...just noting my dance steps