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  • #681
  • Apr 23, 2019 8:30pm Apr 23, 2019 8:30pm
Quoting riclater211
...California, the United States largest economy and 5th largest in the world, has seen a massive uptick in fuel prices that are fueling, , an investigation as price climb to nearly $5.00 a gallon in the San Francisco and Los Angeles areas. We shall see.. - Ric {image}
It's not too late to escape from California. I did in '78 and never looked back!
  • #682
  • Apr 23, 2019 8:39pm Apr 23, 2019 8:39pm
Quoting timingchain
{quote} It's not too late to escape from California. I did in '78 and never looked back!
Or the long position!!!, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #683
  • Apr 24, 2019 1:18am Apr 24, 2019 1:18am
Since API numbers released (see below) i am considering a short on the inventory news

UNITED STATES API WEEKLY CRUDE OIL STOCK INCREASED TO 6.9M IN APRIL 19 FROM PREVIOUS -3.096M
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #684
  • Apr 24, 2019 1:38am Apr 24, 2019 1:38am
Quoting riclater211
Hey All, Long on Brent Crude Via Oanda (BCOUSD) since late March with an entry @ 68.00. Every time I think it is slowing down, it continues on. I have no real target in mind other than 85.00 which October 2018s high. If USA keeps sanctions on Iran, I think we can see 77.00 - 80.00 before summer ends. Demand will be higher as supply shrinks. At this point there is a CLOSE TRADE set at 72.00 in case it all goes to hell. Gas prices in the USA have crept up for the last 2 months straight. California, the United States largest economy and 5th largest...

Ric, Loved you analysis mate. Thanks!

Jack
  • #685
  • Apr 24, 2019 1:59am Apr 24, 2019 1:59am
Quoting Ll1979
Since API numbers released (see below) i am considering a short on the inventory news UNITED STATES API WEEKLY CRUDE OIL STOCK INCREASED TO 6.9M IN APRIL 19 FROM PREVIOUS -3.096M
65.50 has some support, be interesting if it slips below, organic movement looking for direction,favour down, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #686
  • Apr 24, 2019 3:44am Apr 24, 2019 3:44am
2 news about Iran and 1 about Saudi Arabia:

Iran willing to negotiate with America only when US lifts pressure and apologizes

Reuters reports the latest update on the looming US-Iran geopolitical tensions, citing that Iran reportedly is willing to negotiate with America only when the US lifts pressure and apologizes.
Nothing further is reported on the same.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei: Iran can export as much oil as it needs

Saudi OilMin Al-Falih: Actions will be guided by fundamentals of the oil market
Reuters reports the latest comments by Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, with the key headlines found below.

  1. Global inventories continuing to rise, don't see need to do anything immediately.
  2. Global inventories are what will guide policy action.
  3. Actions will be guided by the fundamentals of the oil market.
  4. “We will make sure that global oil market remains balanced.”
  5. The sentiment, in general, is that "we should not lift our hands off the wheel".
  6. “We will not get surprised like we did in Q4 2018.”
  7. “We will not leave our customers scrambling not finding oil they need.”

We can't control the sea, but we can learn how to surf the waves.
  • #687
  • Apr 24, 2019 6:40am Apr 24, 2019 6:40am
Gday everyone, thought I would post my analysis/process instead of just posting open trades.

Still long XTI/USD - Take Profit = +2%

I have a top-down macro process that relies heavily on the relationship between growth, inflation and price. This was very much inspired by the goat Mr Ray Dalio.

With growth forecast to slow and inflation accelerating, I'm bullish on oil and have been for all of Q12019.

The bread and butter is my dynamic range that is calculated using price volume and volatility. I'm aware volume is controversial and I'm not here to debate that with anyone, it's just how I do things.

The range moves daily as the data changes. Don't think of it as support and resistance that price bounces off. The idea is to provide a quantitative compass to help manage risk, are we high or are we low? No opinions here just math.

I buy at the low end of the range and sell at the top inline with my macro bias.

Taking all this into account im holding my XTI/USD long but as we are at the top end of the range im managing risk and locking in 2%. If my take profit is hit then ill wait it out until we touch the low end and buy some more when price action gives the signal.
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Thanks
Jack
  • #688
  • Apr 24, 2019 9:32am Apr 24, 2019 9:32am
EIA: Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.5 million barrels from previous week
Below are some key highlights from the weekly oil market report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

 

  1. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million barrels per day during the week ending April 19, 2019.
  2. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.8 million barrels per day.
  3. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day.
  4. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.5 million barrels from the previous week.
  5. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million barrels per day, down by 1.0% from the same period last year.

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #689
  • Apr 24, 2019 9:47am Apr 24, 2019 9:47am
still locked in the wedge on H1
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #690
  • Apr 24, 2019 9:59am Apr 24, 2019 9:59am
With little more than world events keeping this pumped, unless anymore news arises, I can see some value lost, price has failed to hold through the trend line, D
Is 64.50 next stop?
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I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #691
  • Apr 24, 2019 10:02am Apr 24, 2019 10:02am
Quoting detector
With little more than world events keeping this pumped, unless anymore news arises, I can see some value lost, price has failed to hold through the trend line, D {image}
still bad news and WTI doesn't fall like brick (like it used to do) makes me think the bulls aren't done yet
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #692
  • Apr 24, 2019 10:27am Apr 24, 2019 10:27am
The smaller frames still look a bit bearish but of course the main trend is up.

I'd like to see a move back to retest 64.85

Possible support levels imo

65.56, 65.42, 64.85
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #693
  • Apr 24, 2019 11:35am Apr 24, 2019 11:35am
Quoting sponge
The smaller frames still look a bit bearish but of course the main trend is up. I'd like to see a move back to retest 64.85 Possible support levels imo 65.56, 65.42, 64.85
I agree on apparent support ~65.6, which is now not very far away.

The uptrend from late December remains intact. Overdue for a big correction?
  • #694
  • Apr 24, 2019 4:54pm Apr 24, 2019 4:54pm
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  • #695
  • Apr 24, 2019 5:12pm Apr 24, 2019 5:12pm
Suppose you cannot beat sentiment until it runs out, just a case of when, D
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I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #696
  • Apr 25, 2019 2:00am Apr 25, 2019 2:00am
Quoting timingchain
{quote} I agree on apparent support ~65.6, which is now not very far away. The uptrend from late December remains intact. Overdue for a big correction?
Yes a correction is possible, 65.6 could bring it on but another shallow one if we stay above 64.85 which I think is the big one for the bulls.

For now I think if it holds above 65.6 we could see another push up.

Mondays volume at 65.97 seems to be resistance for now.

I have no idea with fundies

Good luck
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #697
  • Apr 25, 2019 2:59am Apr 25, 2019 2:59am
Quoting sponge
{quote} Yes a correction is possible, 65.6 could bring it on but another shallow one if we stay above 64.85 which I think is the big one for the bulls. For now I think if it holds above 65.6 we could see another push up. Mondays volume at 65.97 seems to be resistance for now. I have no idea with fundies Good luck
The fundamentals aren't that hard as compared to currency pairs. Basically it's all about supply and demand and the us dollar (like other commodities).

So keep your eye on:

  1. Weekly inventories (API + EIA)
  2. Montly reports (EIA, OPEC + API)
  3. Global supply and demand (Iran, libya + venuzuela)
  4. New Permian pipelines (Q3 2019)

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #698
  • Apr 25, 2019 7:01am Apr 25, 2019 7:01am
WTI bounced at ~65.6, which is also location of EMA20 that can also act as support. Now up about 50 pips from there, but no clear signal that I can see.
  • #699
  • Apr 25, 2019 8:18am Apr 25, 2019 8:18am
No matter what fundamentals are, I'm waiting for something at least like this:

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We can't control the sea, but we can learn how to surf the waves.
  • #700
  • Apr 25, 2019 8:33am Apr 25, 2019 8:33am
I got long from Mondays high tested at arrow but short lived
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All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
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