Fundamental and technical analysis

Opened a short position on AUDJPY. Looks like the risk-on sentiment are changing to risk-off and if this happens we will see an inflow to safe-haven currencies liek the Japanese yen. With that it also looks like commodity prices are coming under pressure. When this happens with equity markets also turning negative it effects the high-beta currencies liek the AUD that are sensitive to equity and commodity prices. We are also seeing a strong bullish engulfing candle being rejected off the R38 pivot level (between the R78 & R100 pivot levels of last week), with a keybar indicator which is also a strong bearish signal.

Took a bit of time away from posting due to Easter break.
I have added a new PA indicator and template to post 1. Added a test for Doji candles to the indicator. Doji candles are not as common as engulfing candles in the Forex market but they give a good signal if interpreted correctly.

I hope this is useful for all members.

Small bugfix to the PA indicator - v1.5 in post one guys (and gals)!

To demonstrate the use of Doji candles, I opened this tactical trade earlier today due to a Doji candle appearing on the USDJPY pair on the H4 time frame. The important thing here is that price was close to some major resistance levels and priceclosed between the S38 & S61 pivots. You can see how price responded.

I think this proof is sufficient but we have to test it on several trades to be more confident in its use.

I will not have any trades of JPY crosses open next week, I am closing my UJ position just before end of trade today. Take note of this article:
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/jap...crash-20190426

I think if there is a beat of today's expected US GDP number it will be a further catalyst for the USD to strengthen (and EU to go down further). A miss might lead to some upside for the EU pair.
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/hea...riday-20190426

Fundamental currency analysis - week commencing 20 May 2019:
AUD: - very bearish. At their May meeting, the RBA stressed that in order to avoid any future easing, there would have to be a marked improvement in Australia's labour market. Last week's employment report for April saw the Unemployment Rate tick higher from March's 5.0%. Although Employment Change was positive, a deeper look into the report shows a gloomier picture than the headline would suggest with Full-Time Employment Change printing at -6.3K. The market now expects the RBA to ease rates at their June meeting. Tensions between the US and China over trade negotiations continue to escalate, further supporting this bearish bias.

EUR:- Bearish. Although recent data has improved, the bias for Europe remains to the downside and the risk of an eventual recession remain significant. US/China negotiations are expected to ultimately prove negative for European global trade and the UK's eventual exit from the EU will also be a significant burden for Europe's economy. As significant economic risks are likely to persist and even increase in the foreseeable future, EUR's outlook remains bearish.

GBP:- Bearish. The primary driver for GBP remains Brexit and UK political developments and as such I do not currently trade any GBP pairs due to political uncertainty.

NZD:- Bearish. With Governor Orr suggesting that the RBNZ are now in a wait and see mode, from a monetary policy perspective, the outlook is neutral. However, as a high-beta commodity-linked currency, a significant drive for NZD is the global economic outlook and the market's overall risk appetite. Considering there remains numerous risks to the global economy, the outlook for global growth and the market's risk appetite are both to the downside and likely to weigh on NZD. With external market factors likely to continue weighing on NZD until monetary policy comes back into focus, there is a weak bearish bias for NZD.

USD:- Bullish. In spite of increasing expectations for a rate cut by the end of 2019, USD holds a bullish fundamental bias. This is due to the fact that a slowing global economy tends to result in increased demand for USD and that comparatively speaking, the US economy continues to outperform the majority of its major counterparts. While the US economy remains resilient and USD can expect to see increased demand due to a globally slowing economy, USD is likely to remain supported and hold a fundamentally bullish bias.

CAD:- Neutral. Following April's stellar employment report, the outlook is arguably looking up. Employment change printed its highest ever number since records began. Additionally, with the low Unemployment Rate, Canada's labour market is the healthiest it's been since the 1970s.
Although one positive report won't be enough to see the BoC bring back their hiking bias, the next move is still expected to be a hike. CAD currently holds a neutral
bias and if economic data continues to improve, rate hike expectations will likely be brought forward and CAD turn bullish. If economic data continues to suggest that the overall economy remains sluggish, eventually forcing the BoC to adopt a more dovish tone, CAD will likely turn bearish.