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  • #661
  • Apr 19, 2019 12:50am Apr 19, 2019 12:50am
Quoting data.trade
Hello everyone, I'm really enjoying this little community of traders. It's always good to bounce ideas of each other in my opinion. Here is my contribution I hope you find it of some use. {image} Thanks Jack
Glad to have you on board Jack!
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #662
  • Apr 19, 2019 5:50am Apr 19, 2019 5:50am
Quoting data.trade
As requested here is how I use COT reports and IV How I use Implied Volatility Premiums/Discounts Volatility is just another factor I use when trading markets along with price and volume I'm sure you know the old saying buy low sell high? When using implied vol terms we say sell complacency and buy fear. When implied vol is at a discount we assume investors are becoming complacent and are bullish on the market. Conversely, when implied volatility is at a premium those same investors are becoming fearful. I try to avoid becoming part of the herd...
Very interesting. Please keep us updated with your VOL & COT reports.

Good to have you here.
Focus.
  • #663
  • Apr 19, 2019 9:29am Apr 19, 2019 9:29am
Quoting data.trade
As requested here is how I use COT reports and IV How I use Implied Volatility Premiums/Discounts Volatility is just another factor I use when trading markets along with price and volume I'm sure you know the old saying buy low sell high? When using implied vol terms we say sell complacency and buy fear. When implied vol is at a ..........................
Hello Jack,
great post, thanks.
It would be good if you could post from time to time some update of Z-score.
thanks
Valter
  • #664
  • Apr 19, 2019 7:16pm Apr 19, 2019 7:16pm
Quoting Marco-Kanto
{quote} Very interesting. Please keep us updated with your VOL & COT reports. Good to have you here.
No worries mate happy to keep you all updated on the oil side of things. I post the same thing for FOREX traders on my trading journal if that's of interest to you?

I'll be sure to post all my data on oil here as I update it.

Thanks
Jack
  • #665
  • Apr 22, 2019 2:36am Apr 22, 2019 2:36am
IRAN SANCTIONS POWER CRUDE OIL TO 5-MONTH HIGHS
22 April 2019, 04:16


Oil prices jumped on Monday on a report that the US is likely to ask all importers of Iranian oil to end their purchases.
Brent oil added 75 cents or 1 percent to $72.68 per barrel, the highest level since November 2018.
The US, which reimposed sanctions on Iran’s energy sector after unilaterally pulling out of a 2015 nuclear accord, now reportedly wants to force Iranian oil exports to zero.

The world’s largest economy will likely announce later today that all importers of Iranian crude will have to end their purchases shortly or be ready to face US sanctions, according to Washington Post.
That is widely seen exacerbating supply concerns. Hence, the black gold may extend gains during the day ahead, weakening currencies of the oil importing current account deficit economies like India. The Canadian dollar could also find takers amid oil rally.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #666
  • Apr 22, 2019 3:41am Apr 22, 2019 3:41am
Hi,

The range for today, 64.7-9 for down.
Attached Image
  • #667
  • Apr 22, 2019 8:43am Apr 22, 2019 8:43am
Update on long oil trade

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locked in 1.5% but leaving the position open

Thanks
Jack
  • #668
  • Apr 22, 2019 9:04am Apr 22, 2019 9:04am
good trade after 2week side way price break in h4 so trend will be up
  • #669
  • Apr 22, 2019 11:32am Apr 22, 2019 11:32am
Just caution when going long.

It is likely the Oil to continue to climb but watching the chart I see almost unnatural overbought state (not a single red week candle) - there will be 6-8$ correction at least - it will happen somewhere in the next 2-4 weeks.

The absolute gain for the number of green week candles is not that big and yet there is no real problem or panic on the oil markets. I would seek for long opportunities but there should be some deeper correction first.
  • #670
  • Apr 22, 2019 1:15pm Apr 22, 2019 1:15pm
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #671
  • Apr 22, 2019 2:48pm Apr 22, 2019 2:48pm
Quoting michaelpelly
Just caution when going long. It is likely the Oil to continue to climb but watching the chart I see almost unnatural overbought state (not a single red week candle) - there will be 6-8$ correction at least - it will happen somewhere in the next 2-4 weeks. The absolute gain for the number of green week candles is not that big and yet there is no real problem or panic on the oil markets. I would seek for long opportunities but there should be some deeper correction first.

I agree. I am looking for it to go back down to the 60 area and then getting in long .. waiting ......
  • #672
  • Apr 22, 2019 4:31pm Apr 22, 2019 4:31pm
The opening bar came off of EMA20 and broke above the 2-week-old trading range. High reached 65.99, at the 3rd upper band (UB3), closed 65.68. This is a new contract for the chart, expiring May 21.
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  • #673
  • Apr 22, 2019 10:31pm Apr 22, 2019 10:31pm
Quoting michaelpelly
Just caution when going long. It is likely the Oil to continue to climb but watching the chart I see almost unnatural overbought state (not a single red week candle) - there will be 6-8$ correction at least - it will happen somewhere in the next 2-4 weeks. The absolute gain for the number of green week candles is not that big and yet there is no real problem or panic on the oil markets. I would seek for long opportunities but there should be some deeper correction first.

you can see left in the chart on 30-9-2018 the rally start it never end oil and gold are commodity their trading volumes are huge and they are operated by exchanges in NYMC and for hongkong and for india they are operated under exchanges volumes are real not kike forex no centralised exchange no one knows how many buyers and sellers and fully manipulates market by banks and market maker

75.40 is their target retrace may happen buy at every dip you can see in daily chart evey month they make and retracement and buy

i am buy from feb dip
  • #674
  • Apr 23, 2019 12:06am Apr 23, 2019 12:06am
Well, the problem with the hype when oil or commodities are hysterical in the financial media is that trends suddenly end and reverse - I still remember when I was saying when WTI was about $50 back in November 2018 that downtrend is near - everyone was shouting how it might go to 12$. It was like oil downtrend will never end. Four months later it is like oil trend up will never end - can you smell the resemblance?

I’m not implying trend reversal, but there will be some period of deep corrections and wider ranges than what we’ve seen for the last 4 months.

Just a quick chart overview (weekly - screenshot from my phone) for the last couple years:
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  • #675
  • Apr 23, 2019 2:25am Apr 23, 2019 2:25am
October 2018 saw the WTI sell off begin we are now challenging it's low at 64.85

It's possible it will fail or retest

64.85/65.42 are significant levels for the bulls imo

4 hr and below look a bit bearish atm
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All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #676
  • Apr 23, 2019 5:58am Apr 23, 2019 5:58am
Gday everyone, update on the oil trade.

Still long and holding with 2% now locked in
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I'll update when I close the trade. Bullish on oil from a macro perspective although $65 is the top end the data trade range so I will not be buying again until we are at the lows of the range.

I'll continue moving my take profit up with each move until the position is closed. Then as I said wait for the bottom end of the range before going long again with the correct setup.

Good luck everyone!
  • #677
  • Apr 23, 2019 7:55am Apr 23, 2019 7:55am
COT and Implied Vol Data
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Good Luck

Jack
  • #678
  • Apr 23, 2019 4:56pm Apr 23, 2019 4:56pm
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  • #679
  • Apr 23, 2019 6:54pm Apr 23, 2019 6:54pm
Hello all, some great informative posts of late, closed my short due to not being home for a while but watching closely, posted up my thoughts, it does help to be on the right contract, was wondering what the fuss was all about!!!, D

Opened my short/s for speculation based on technical, D
Maybe a little ambitious, but trading what I see, if the trend line is breached, it may fall further to 64, do understand the bullrun but the slow rise will give way to a mighty fall, my opinion only, D
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I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #680
  • Apr 23, 2019 8:20pm Apr 23, 2019 8:20pm
Hey All,

Long on Brent Crude Via Oanda (BCOUSD) since late March with an entry @ 68.00. Every time I think it is slowing down, it continues on. I have no real target in mind other than 85.00 which October 2018s high. If USA keeps sanctions on Iran, I think we can see 77.00 - 80.00 before summer ends. Demand will be higher as supply shrinks. At this point there is a CLOSE TRADE set at 72.00 in case it all goes to hell.

Gas prices in the USA have crept up for the last 2 months straight. California, the United States largest economy and 5th largest in the world, has seen a massive uptick in fuel prices that are fueling, , an investigation as price climb to nearly $5.00 a gallon in the San Francisco and Los Angeles areas.

We shall see..

- Ric
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Be humble or get humbled
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