Elliottwave-Forecast.com - Official Thread w/ Analysis Blogs

The CAC 40 Long Term Swing Count Suggests Bullish Cycles
April 17, 2019 By EWF Lewis (Edit)
The CAC 40 Long Term Swing Count Suggests Bullish Cycles
Firstly the CAC 40 index has been trending higher with other world indices where in September 2000 it put in an all time high. From there it followed the rest of the world indices lower into the March 2003 lows which was a larger degree pullback. From there the index rallied with other world indices again until June 2007. It then corrected that rally again as did most other world stock indices. It ended this larger degree correction in March 2009. From those 2009 lows, the index shows an incomplete swing sequence that favors further upside.
Secondly, in May 2018 price reached the area of 5623 – 6034 which is the .618 – .764 Fibonacci extension of the March 2009 to April 2015 cycle. This is a usual area for a 5th swing of a cycle to end which it did. The pullback into the December 2018 lows in the 6th swing corrected the cycle up from February 2016 lows. The analysis continues below the chart.
CAC 40 Index Monthly Chart with a swing count.

The extension areas are measured as per the following. Use a Fibonacci extension tool on a charting platform. On this chart, point 1 will be at the beginning of the cycle at the March 2009 lows. From there on up to the April 2015 highs, marked with a 3, will be point 2. The point 3 will be down at the February 2016 lows. This point is marked with a 4. The extension areas shown are the same as long as price remains above those February 2016 lows. As of now, the index appears to have finished the 6th swing pullback at the December 2018 lows. It should stay above there while continuing the trend higher.
Briefly talking about Elliott Wave, we know impulses travel in 5, 9 & 13 swings. Corrective moves travel in 3, 7 & 11 swings. Either way you look at this cycle higher from March 2009, it appears to be incomplete.
Lastly in conclusion, the extension areas higher shown on the chart is where the index should be able to reach during this period of multiple world indices bullish trends higher. I do believe this index will ultimately travel higher in 9 to 13 swings. Conservatively the chart shows a usual target area for a 7 swing at the 6699-7364 area which likely will be surpassed before it ends the bullish cycle up from the March 2009 lows.
Thanks for looking. Feel free to come visit our website and check out our services Free for 14 days to see if we can be of help.
Kind regards & good luck trading.
Lewis Jones of the ElliottWave-Forecast.com Team

Elliott Wave View: EURUSD Remains Bearish in Shorter Cycle

Since topping on February 16, 2018 high (1.255), EURUSD has continued to make a sequence of lower low. In the 1 hour chart below, the decline to 1.1183 ended wave ((i)) and the bounce to 1.132 ended wave ((ii)). The internal of wave ((ii)) subdivided as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Wave (w) of ((ii)) ended at 1.1287 as a zigzag and wave (x) of ((ii)) ended at 1.1228. Pair then rallied in wave (y) of ((ii)) to 1.132 as a zigzag. This is an example of a double zigzag, which is a special type of a double three. A double zigzag happens when both w and y in double three structure take the form of a zigzag.

Wave ((iii)) is in progress to the downside and subdivides as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 1.1324, wave i ended at 1.1277, wave ii ended at 1.132, and wave iii ended at 1.122. Expect another leg lower to end wave v of (i), then it should bounce in wave (ii) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from April 12 high (1.1323) before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying the pair and expect sellers to appear in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 1.132 stays intact.

1 Hour EURUSD Elliott Wave Chart Asia Update

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Elliott Wave View: Further Strength in Oil

Short term Elliott Wave view on Oil suggests the pullback to $63 ended wave 4. Rally in wave 5 is currently in progress and subdivides as an Elliott Wave impulse structure. Up from $63, wave ((i)) ended at $64.61, wave ((ii)) ended at $63.46, and wave ((3)) is expected to complete soon. Both wave ((i)) and wave ((iii)) also subdivide as an Elliott Wave structure of lesser degree.

Wave ((iii)) shows an extension and almost reaches 161.8 Fibonacci extension. In Elliott Wave Principle, wave 3 typically is the longest and usually reaches at least 161.8 Fibonacci extension. Wave ((4)) pullback should hold above $63 in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside. In Elliott Wave Principle, wave ((4)) should not overlap with wave ((1)). Therefore, wave ((4)) should not break into the territory of wave ((i)) at $64.61. Typically wave ((4)) is 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave ((3)). We need wave ((3)) to complete first before we can better measure the potential target for wave ((4)). We don’t like selling Oil and expect extension higher as far as pivot at $63 stays intact.

1 Hour CL_F Elliott Wave Chart Asia Update

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JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) Aiming for New All Time Highs
April 23, 2019 By Ayoub Ben Rejeb (Edit)
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is the largest bank in the United State. It is a multinational banking and financial service provider that was formed as a result of a merger of several banking companies in 1996.
The Banking sector took its biggest hit during the financial crisis in 2008 as many banks announced bankruptcy and other barley managed to survive .However, based on performance of the top 5 US Banks over the past 12 years, JPM outperformed the Banks industry as it managed to double its stock price above 2007 peak while the rest are struggling to recover against the same peak.
US Banks Performance

Looking at the Monthly chart for JPM, we understand that 2008 crash was just part of a larger 9 years technical 3 waves correction which started since 2000 (Dotcom bubble) then ended at 2009 low. Up from there, the stock started rallying higher in an impulsive 5 waves structure making new all time highs along the way.
Based on Elliott Wave Theory, JPM is trading within the wave ((III)) which is considered as the strongest leg in the entire cycle and therefore the stock will be seeking further gains until it ends the cycle from 2009 low. Currently, JPM is advancing in the 5th leg of wave (III) which will be followed by a pullback in wave (IV) then again the stock will resume the rally higher.
JPM Monthly Chart 04.23.2019

Switching to the 4H chart for JPMorgan, we see the current bullish cycle which started since wave IV low in December 2018 approaching the target area around the 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension area $115.4 – $126.1 from where short term pullbacks can be seen in 3 or 7 swings before further upside takes place.
JPM 4H Chart 04.23.2019

We use our proprietary pivot system to tell us when a cycle has ended so we need to switch to a different degree. Consequently as long as pivot at $98 low remain intact, JPM will remain supported and it will be aiming to break higher above 2018 peak making new all time highs.
Get our latest updates about Financial Sector by trying out our services 14 days . You’ll learn how to trade the market in the right side using the 3, 7 or 11 swings sequence and our blue boxes. You will get access to our 78 instruments updated in 4 different time frames, Live Trading & Analysis Session done by our Expert Analysts every day, 24-hour chat room support and much more.

GBPAUD : Top Down Analysis
April 21, 2019 By EWF Aidan (Edit)
GBPAUD Technical Analysis April 2019
Every trader should always view the market in the “bigger picture” first. Viewing the market starting from the higher time frame down to the lower time frames will offer a trader a better perspective on the possible price movements that the market can do. A “top down analysis” will offer a trader a clearer picture of the markets which will in return allow a trader to ultimately decide which side to trade. As you will see in the charts below a top down analysis was used at the start of April 2019 that led us to call the GBPAUD 500 pip move lower that we are currently seeing today.
GBPAUD Weekly Chart 3.31.2019 : Weekly chart contains the possible support/resistance lines where price can possibly move towards. March 31/2019 we saw a strong bearish Weekly candle that formed which signalled that bears were in control and that price had a possibility of moving lower towards next level of support.

GBPAUD Daily Chart 3.31.2019 : On the Daily chart price broke below the ascending trend line which can also be signalling for a possible continuation lower to the next support level in the following days.
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GBPAUD 4 Hour Chart 3.31.2019 : A clear bearish Head and Shoulders breakout pattern on the 4 hour chart triggered SELLS below the H&S neck line. The breakout below the neck line added more confirmation for traders to look for possible selling opportunities in the following days.
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GBPAUD 1 Hour Chart 4.2.2019 : On the 1 hour chart bearish patterns formed which gave us the opportunity to SELL and enter the market. April 2/2019 we published this trade setup calling for the move lower > Click > GBPAUD : Market Patterns Calling More Downside?
Price has since moved 500 pips lower from the 1.86 handle SELL entry area and can still continue lower towards next support level at the 1.80-1.79 area. A “top down analysis” will always allow a trader to get an overall outlook of where price can go.
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Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan
*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***
At Elliottwave-Forecast we cover 78 instruments (Forex, Commodities, Indices, Stocks and ETFs) in 4 different timeframes and we offer 5 Live Session Webinars everyday. We do Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Trade Setup Videos and we have a 24 Chat Room. Our clients are always in the loop for the next market move.
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EURCAD : Bearish Patterns Calling Lower?
April 21, 2019 By EWF Aidan (Edit)
EURCAD Technical Analysis April 21/2019
EURCAD : Bearish market patterns can be seen on the EURCAD pair. In the first chart below both the blue and pink bearish patterns already triggered SELLS on the 15 minute time frame. Blue bearish pattern triggered SELLS at the BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level and the pink bearish pattern triggered SELLS at the XA 0.886% Fib. retracement level. We have yet to see if price will respect these pattern levels and continue lower. At the moment we already had a minor reaction lower from these levels and price has made a small move lower but traders will need to wait for more confirmation after the market opens this week. Zooming out to the EURCAD 1 hour chart there are more clear visible bearish patterns which can also be signalling for a continuation lower this coming week. The 1 hour chart shows price has respected the green bearish AB=CD pattern at the 1.0% Fib. extension level and price has also broken below the bottom of the black channel trend line which can be added confirmation for more downside in the coming week. There is also a bearish pattern (orange) that has triggered SELLS and has yet to hit the target trend line. If looking to trade EURCAD a soft stop should be placed at the point B high of the blue bearish pattern for tight stops and a hard stop at the April 16/2019 high. Above the April 16/2019 high invalidates all bearish scenarios. If price continues lower traders should watch for the move lower to hit targets as shown on the 1 hour chart. The targets (black) are based on the blue bearish pattern BC 0.50% entry. Overall as long as the April 16/2019 high holds EURCAD has a strong possibility of continuing lower. Only time will tell what EURCAD will do but for the meantime we remain bearish.
EURCAD 15 Minute Chart 4.19.2019

EURCAD 1 Hour Chart 4.19.2019
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Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan
*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***
At Elliottwave-Forecast we cover 78 instruments (Forex, Commodities, Indices, Stocks and ETFs) in 4 different timeframes and we offer 5 Live Session Webinars everyday. We do Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Trade Setup Videos and we have a 24 Chat Room. Our clients are always in the loop for the next market move.
Try Elliottwave-Forecast for 14 days FREE !!! Just click here –> 14 day FREE trial

DJI ( $YM_F ) Found Buyers In Blue Box And Rallied
April 21, 2019 By EWF Vlada (Edit)
Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of DJI Mini Futures ( $YM_F ). As our members know DJI is showing incomplete bullish sequences in the cycle from the December 2018 low . Break of 02/25 peak, has made DJI bullish against the 03.08 low( 25223 ). Consequently, we advised members to avoid selling DJI and keep on favouring the long side. In the following article, we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave structure and Forecast.
DJI 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 4.18.2019
DJI ended cycle from the 26058 as 5 waves structure and gave us pull back against that low. Short term pull back has unfolded as Elliott Wave ZIGZAG Pattern ((a))((b))((c)). Pull back has reached important technical area, blue box : 26358-26259. It’s already showing reaction from there, and also having enough number of swings in place. At this moment we are calling pull back completed. However need to see further separation from the current low and ideally break above 1 red ( 04/05) peak to confirm next leg higher is in progress. We don’t recommend selling the index at this stage and favor the long side against the 26058 low. Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce. The main trend is bullish and we expect to see reaction in 3 waves up from the blue box at least. As soon as the bounce reaches 50 fibs against the ((b)) high, we will make long positions risk free and let the profit run.

DJI 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 4.18.2019
Buyers appeared right at the blue box when pull back completed at 26312 low. We got expected rally and as a result members are now enjoying profits in risk free positions. Recently we got a new short term high with a break above 04/05 peak, confirming next leg up is in progress. At this stage DJI can remain bullish against the 263123 pivot in first degree, suggesting more strength potentially. Intraday pull backs can find buyers in 3,7,11 swings for proposed rally or 3 wave bounce at least.
Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site.

Elliott Wave Forecast
We cover 78 instruments in total, but not every chart is trading recommendation. We present Official Trading Recommendations in Live Trading Room. If not a member yet, Sign Up for Free 14 days Trial now and get access to new trading opportunities. Through time we have developed a very respectable trading strategy which defines Entry, Stop Loss and Take Profit levels with high accuracy.
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Elliott Wave View: Further Rally in Amazon (AMZN)

Since bottoming on December 24, 2018 low, Amazon (ticker: AMZN) has continued to recover. The sequence from December 2018 low remains incomplete with 100% extension coming at $2033 – $2143. In shorter cycle, we can see from the chart below that the pullback to $1818.90 ended wave 2. Wave 3 is in progress and subdivides as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from $1818.90, rally to $1876.47 ended wave ((i)) with subdivision also as an impulse of lesser degree. Wave (i) of ((i)) ended at $1853.67, and wave (ii) of ((i)) ended at $1840.26. Wave (iii) of ((i)) ended at $1869.72, wave (iv) of ((i)) ended at $1852.50, and wave (v) of ((i)) ended at $1876.47.

The stock then pullback in wave ((ii)) and ended at $1845.28. Internal of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag where wave (a) ended at $1855.01, wave (b) ended at $1870.82, and wave (c) ended at $1845.28. Wave ((iii)) is in progress and Amazon can see 1 more leg higher to end wave ((iii)) before pulling back in wave ((iv)). Similar to wave ((i)), the internal of wave ((iii)) subdivides as an impulse structure in lesser degree. Wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at $1894.95, wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at $1882.50, wave (iii) of ((iii))) ended at $1929.26, and wave (iv) of ((iii)) ended at $1916.59.

Expect Amazon to see 1 more leg higher to end wave (v) of ((iii)) before pulling back. in wave ((iv)) The stock should continue to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as wave ((ii)) pivot at 1845.28 remains intact. We don’t like selling the stock.

1 Hour AMZN Elliott Wave Chart Asia Update

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Traders Identity, The Key to Succeed in Trading.
April 23, 2019 By EWFEric (Edit)
Trading is a profession that many enter with big dreams, we all have been guilty one way or the other of the illusion of making a living out of trading. Many aspects are part of a trader been able to success like self-control, greed, fear among them. We believe that one of the most important aspects for a trader to know and control is Identity.
Identity by definition is who you are, the way you think about yourself, the way you are viewed by the world and the characteristics that define you.
The market is by nature an entity which tests each trader into the most possible extremes, we fear to lose, we want more, we want to make money fast, we live a dream many times. Many traders do not understand the nature of the Market which many ways is needed to relate to each trader own nature or Identity. Market comes with combinations of time frames and this is aspect in which many fail to understand the oscillations and how each trader is not suitable for each time frame, as we always have said the lower the hardest it becomes, but also the stronger the trader mentality needs to be because of the number of oscillations.
Elliott wave Theory cycle degrees is represented as follow:
Grand Super Cycle: multi-century
Super Cycle: multi-decade (about 40–70 years)
Cycle: one year to several years (or even several decades under an Elliott Extension)
Primary: a few months to a couple of years
Intermediate: weeks to months
Minor: weeks
Minute: days
Minuette: hours
Subminuette: minutes
As we can see, the lower the degree the lower the time frame, but also the hardest it gets, let us explain the most popular degrees.
Intermediate is a degree which can be traded in the Monthly or Weekly chart and trade can last a year more and less, this type of trade is very reliable due to the fact that in one year there is only 12 months and 52 weeks which indicated 12 monthly charts or 52 weekly charts.
Minors, is a degree which can be seen in the Weekly and Daily charts and is very reliable, there are 52 Weekly charts and 365 Daily charts.
Minutes is a degree which is also reliable because can be seen in the Daily charts and 4 Hour charts, there are 365 Daily charts and 1248 4 Hours charts.
Below this degree, the Market becomes more dangerous and consequently more demanding of discipline and self-understanding of each one strength and weakness. Every single tool of Technique will be tested to a higher degree because the number of oscillations will increase tremendously.
Minuette is the degree which can be seen in the 4 Hour and 1 Hour charts which make the trade a small swing trade and can last a few days, ideally the trader will be trading the 4 Hour pullback and entering base in the 1 Hour chart, there are 1248 4 Hour charts and 7488 1 Hour chart in a year.
Subminuette is the most popular degree and the hardest to trade, most of the traders ending losing and not lasting more than 2 years and this degree is the major reason, there are many reasons or myths like the lack of equity which forced traders to trade in this degree, but with the right money management a trader can trade into more reliable higher degrees. Read this article in which we explain how to do it the right way. An Important Lesson on Money Management. There are 7488 1 Hour charts in a year, but when trading this degree, a trader will be entering the base in 15 minutes pullbacks which can be counted as 29952 charts or periods in a year.
As we have explained, the degrees are related to the time frames, but the most important is knowing your self and trying to find the degree that fixes you better, most of the traders tend to trade in the riskiest degrees, but also tend to trade in degrees which do not fit your personality. Even when we all Humans, we do not have the same personality, we are different in how to handle emotions, stress, fear, and greed consequently, we all cannot trade the same degree. Based in the math the higher the degree the better and instead of the Subminuette which is the most popular the Minutes is the better fit for the equity and most personalities, only traders with a higher degree of self-discipline and huge understanding of how to invest in the long run and money management should be trading the below Minuette degrees due the challenging which comes with them. As always, we trying to help traders around the world to become better traders and be able to last and make the dream of becoming professional traders a reality.

GOLD ( $XAUUSD ) Incomplete Bearish Sequences Calling The Decline
April 23, 2019 By EWF Vlada (Edit)
Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the charts of GOLD published in members area of the website. GOLD has had incomplete sequences in the cycle from the February 2oth peak (1347.43) . Consequently , we advised clients to avoid buying GOLD and keep on selling the rallies in 3,7,11 swings when given the opportunity.
In the charts below, we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave Structure and Trading Strategy.
GOLD Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 4.4.2019
Break of 03/07 low made February cycle incomplete to the downside, suggesting the Commodity is bearish against the 03/25peak- B red. As far as the pivot at B red high holds, we should be ideally doing wav C red . The commodity is targeting 1257.63 area- Blue Box.


GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 4.06.2019
As we can see at the charts below, GOLD is bearish against the 1324.45 peak . Proposed short term bounce ((i)) seems to be unfolding as a Elliott Wave Flat pattern when we can be in (c) of ((ii)) . Wave (c) should make 5 waves from the low to complete proposed pattern. We don’t recommend buying GOLD in proposed bounce and although the right side is bearish, we remind our members that Elliott Wave Flats can be tricky to trade and to be more careful at this stage. Anyway as far as pivot at 1324.45 peak holds, we favor short side in the commodity.

GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 4.11.2019
We got expected bounce and 5 waves from the low. Short term rally in wave (c) looks like Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal. Current view suggests that recovery is completed as wave Irregular Flat ((ii)) black. The chart is calling for further weakness within February cycle.

GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 4.20.2019
Eventually we got another short term low in Commodity which has made cycle from the 1324.52 (03/25) peak incomplete as well, confirming further weakness. Current view suggests GOLD is doing short term recovery against the 1295.92 peak. We can get another leg up toward short term blue box area :1279.3-1283.6 ( sell zone) . At that area we like to be sellers for further delcine ideally or 3 wave pull back alternatively. Stop Loss of the trade is a break above 1.618 Fibonacci extension (12836.3). As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a reaction.

GOLD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 4.20.2019
GOLD has made proposed leg up and found sellers right at the blue box : 1279.3-1283.6 . Recovery ended at 1279.99 high and we have already got new short term low, confirming next leg down is in progress. As a result members who took short trades are now enjoying profits with risk free positions.
Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site.
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-...OLD-2-blog.jpg
Elliott Wave Forecast
We cover 78 instruments in total, but not every chart is trading recommendation. We present Official Trading Recommendations in Live Trading Room. If not a member yet, Sign Up for Free 14 days Trial now and get access to new trading opportunities. Through time we have developed a very respectable trading strategy which defines Entry, Stop Loss and Take Profit levels with high accuracy.
Welcome to Elliott Wave Forecast !

Elliott Wave View: AUDUSD Impulsive Decline

Short term Elliott Wave view in AUDUSD is calling the move lower from April 17, 2019 high (0.7206) as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the chart below, we can see rally to 0.7199 ended wave 2 bounce in Minor degree. Wave 3 is in progress and subdivides as an impulse in lesser Minute degree. Down from 0.7199, wave ((i)) ended at 0.7126 and bounce to 0.7139 ended wave ((ii)). Wave ((iii)) ended at 0.7 and while wave ((iv)) bounce fails below 0.714, expect further downside.

Pair is also close to breaking below March 8 low at 0.6999. If pair breaks below the level, it will create a bearish sequence from January 31 high. Wave ((iv)) bounce can potentially reach 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave ((iii)) at 0.703 – 0.7054 before the next leg lower. Ideally, the rally should not go more than 50% retracement of wave ((iii)) at 0.707 or the structure can change again. The alternate view calls the move lower from April 17, 2019 high has ended. This is however seems less likely based on the momentum. We don’t like buying the pair and expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

1 Hour AUDUSD Elliott Wave Chart Asia Update

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Can Caterpillar see more upside after it’s Earning release?
April 24, 2019 By EWFSanjay (Edit)
In today’s blog, we will have a look at the latest price action of the Caterpillar.
Caterpillar is an American company which has its headquarter in Deerfield Illinois. Caterpillar is one of the largest construction equipment manufacturer in the world. It is listed in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The company released yesterday its first-quarter earnings. The revenue came out at $13.47 billion, which was higher than the expectations of $13.27 billion. Adjusted earnings per share: $2.94, beating expectations of $2.83. Even tho the earnings came out pretty strong. The stock dipped in the opening. Below you can see the daily chart of Caterpillar before the opening. It was expected to dip before more upside should be seen.
The stock ended the cycle from 01/25/18 peak at the 10/25/18 low. Above from there, it managed to break above 12/03/18 peak making it an incomplete sequence from that low, indicating more upside into the equal legs (blue box) towards 146.48+ areas. Where a bigger reaction lower should be seen. (Swing counts do not reflect Elliott Wave counts!)

Caterpillar 04.24.2019 Daily Sequence Analysis



In the last chart below you can see the price action after its earnings release. And like expected it pulled back. As long as it manages to stay above 129.24 low it is still capable of trading higher into the equal legs extreme area (blue box) before a bigger reaction in Caterpillar should take place. For now, any pullback against 129.24 low should find buyers again in the sequences of 3-7 or 11 swings, targeting the equal legs area ($146.48-165.22).

Caterpillar 04.24.2019 after the earnings release



I hope you liked this blog and I wish you all good trades. And for all who are interested in learning more about our unique blue box areas and also want to trade profitably in 2019 then sign up for a free 14 days trial you can cancel anytime. Click the link and see you insight

Elliott Wave View: Rally in Boeing (BA) Should Fail

Elliott Wave view in Boeing suggests that the rally to $446.49 ended wave (III) in super cycle degree. The stock is now doing the biggest pullback since 2003 low within wave (4). The decline from $446.49 to $359.01 ended wave ((A)) as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave (1) ended at $416.44, wave (2) ended at $427.70, wave (3) ended at $365.55, wave (4) ended at $402.67, and wave (5) ended at $359.01.

The 5 waves move lower ended wave ((A)) in larger degree as the first leg of a zigzag. The stock has started to recover in wave ((B)). The recovery also takes the form of a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from $359.01, wave (A) ended at $399.95, wave (B) ended at $362.92, and wave (C) of ((B)) is expected to end at $406.26 – $431.97. We expect the rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as the pivot at $446.49 high stays intact. Once wave ((B)) completes, wave ((C)) should start and can take the stock lower and break below $359.01. Potential target for wave (IV) pullback is 23.6 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $285.1 to $346.6.

8 Hour Boeing (BA) Elliott Wave Chart Asia Update

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Strong GDP supports the US Dollar
April 29, 2019 By EWFHendra (Edit)
Summary

1. A strong 3.2% U.S first quarter GDP indicates robust economy.
2. Temporary drivers of the growth however may not be sustainable for the remainder of the year.
3. Strong U.S. economic data can continue to boost global stock market and U.S. Dollar in the short term.

The U.S Commerce Department reported a strong first quarter GDP growth of 3.2% last week. This is the fastest figure since 2015 and put to rest the fear of recession. It also beat the expectation of over 2% growth by the economists. The GDP result was positive for the market causing global stock markets to rise. S&P 500 registered another record closing high. The dollar fell against a basket of other currencies but could just take a breather after a strong rally since early 2019. After all, around the world, things are not looking as bright. Germany is barely growing and Japan is slumping.

Source: Atlas with data from Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
However, not everything in the GDP report is rosy. The drivers of the growth primarily come from two sources: Smaller trade deficit and large inventory. Exports grew by 4%, but recent data indicates contraction in global trade. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis reports the world trade momentum contracts by 1.9%, the sharpest contraction since 2009.

Source: CPB
Strong GDP Number Support Global Market and US Dollar
This suggests that the export growth may be temporary and can’t continue to boost the GDP number for the remainder of this year. The surge in inventory is yet another temporary factor which may not necessarily indicate a strong economy. Although a stock buildup can signal that companies expect future demands to increase, it can also signal sluggish demand as unsold inventory accumulates. Thus, the number doesn’t really tell us the underlying strength of the economy.
However, despite some of the underlying questions on the two elements, the GDP print reveals that the recession fear is overblown. Global stock markets responded favorably with S&P 500 notching a new all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is also close to breaking out the previous 2018 high. With continued optimism and momentum buying, the rally in global markets can continue to extend in the short term. U.S. Dollar can also continue to outperform with the rest of the world market lagging.
USDCHF Daily Elliott Wave

USDCHF Daily chart above shows that sequence from Feb 29, 2018 low remains incomplete with 100% target towards 1.043 – 1.064 area. The pair shows a bullish sequence from 3 different cycles:

1. February 19, 2018 low
2. September 24, 2018 low
3. January 10, 2019 low

Additionally, the pair looks to have broken above the wedge-like pattern which has limited the rally for the past year. We expect the pair to continue finding support in dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
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Elliott Wave View: More Weakness in GDX

Elliott Wave view calls the decline in Gold Miners ETF (GDX) from March 27, 2019 high ($23.40) as an impulse structure. In the chart below, wave 2 of that impulse ended at $22.93. Down from there, wave 3 ended at $20.67 and wave 4 ended at $21.43. The miners still need to break below wave 3 at $20.67 to validate the view and avoid a double correction. The internal of wave 3 subdivides as an impulse Elliott Wave structure of lesser degree. Wave ((i)) of 3 ended at $21.89 and wave ((ii)) of 3 ended at $22.29. Down from there, wave ((iii)) of 3 ended at $20.71, wave ((iv)) of 3 ended at $20.97, and wave ((v)) of 3 ended at $20.67.

Wave 4 bounce unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((a)) ended at $21.19, wave ((b)) ended at $20.76, and wave ((c)) of 4 ended at $21.43. Near term, while bounce stays below $21.43, and more importantly below $22.93, expect the miners to extend lower. Potential target to the downside for wave 5 is $19.6 – $20, which is where wave 1 = wave 5.

1 Hour GDX Elliott Wave Chart Post Market Update

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Karachi Stock Exchange ( KSE-100 ) Elliott Wave Analysis
April 30, 2019 By Hassan Sheikh (Edit)
Karachi Stock Exchange from Pakistan (KSE-100 index) is a major stock market index which tracks the performance of largest companies by market capitalization from each sector of Pakistani economy listed on “The Karachi Stock Exchange”. Since October 15th, 2012 it is a free-float index. The KSE100 has a base value of 1000 as of November 1991.
Top 10 KSE 100 Index Companies
Below is the list of top 10 companies with the largest market capitalization volume and their respective weighting in the index. These companies account for over 74% of the index as of July 2013.

Pakistan’s Economic Outlook
Pakistan’s economy is going through a boom & bust cycle that sees it back at the door of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). When the debt is soaring, the current account deficit is widening, reserves are falling and the currency has been devalued over 34% since the December 2017. High inflation is another challenge for Pakistan’s economy, where the consumer price index has risen to the highest levels since 2013, inflation is way above the central bank’s average forecast range of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent for the year ending June. Due to which, some analysts are expecting another rate increase of 50-100 basis points in the short run.
The central bank has already raised the rates by cumulative 475 basis points since December 2018 to maintain the financial blowouts from Pakistan’s current account deficit and balance of payment crisis. And now, Pakistan’s’ New government lead by PM Imran Khan is looking for 13th bailout package from IMF since the late 1980s looking to meet the current account & balance of payments crisis. However, the negotiations are still underway and delay in the agreement is causing the currency value, while local stocks are soaring to the lowest levels in three years. Causing the KSE-100 index to soar more than 10,000 points since the second quarter of 2018.
KSE-100 Technical Outlook
So now, let’s take a quick look at the technical view of the KSE-100 index using Elliott wave theory. The index has ended the cycle from all time in Grand Super Cycle within wave ((I)) at 53127 high seen at 5/25/2017 peak. Since then, the index has made a strong pullback in the Grand Super Cycle wave ((II)). The pullback from 2017 peak is unfolding as zigzag structure looking to extend lower towards 31732-22247 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area. Then from there, the buyers are expected to appear in that blue box area looking for more upside or for bigger 3 wave reaction higher at least.
KSE-100 Weekly Elliott Wave View

Keep in mind that the market is dynamic and the view could change in the meantime. Success in trading requires proper risk and money management as well as an understanding of Elliott Wave theory, cycle analysis, and correlation. We have developed a very good trading strategy that defines the entry. Stop loss and take profit levels with high accuracy and allows you to take a risk-free position, shortly after taking it by protecting your wallet. If you want to learn all about it and become a professional trader. Then join our service by taking a Free Trial.

AUDCAD : SELL Trade Setup
April 30, 2019 By EWF Aidan (Edit)
AUDCAD Technical Analysis April 30/2019
AUDCAD : A bearish market pattern is forming on the 1 hour chart but has yet to trigger entry. In the chart below the blue bearish pattern still needs to make a small push higher to tag the XA 0.786% Fib. retracement level where price can see a possible reversal lower. At the moment AUDCAD is trading below the XA 0.786% level and if we see a break below 0.9459 level then it is possible the blue bearish pattern will not trigger the SELL entry and the pair may continue lower. If looking to trade AUDCAD traders should watch for a move higher to the blue XA 0.786% Fib. level for the possible selling opportunity. SELL entry is at 0.9518 with stops at 0.9543 looking for price to move lower and hit the targets below (green). The stop loss is based on the invalidation of the blue bearish pattern but as long as the April 17/2019 high holds AUDCAD remains bearish. Only time will tell what AUDCAD will do but at least now you are aware of the possible area where the pair can reverse lower from.
AUDCAD 1 Hour Chart 4.30.2019

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan
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Elliott Wave Theory: SPY What does $318.00 mean
April 29, 2019 By EWFEric (Edit)
SPY. The Elliott wave Theory is a Technical Analysis method that traders use to analyze the market and located the trend by using the relationship between highs and lows and applying a system developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s. Almost 100 years have passed now since it was developed, and the Market has changed. The principle is very simple and comes with clear three rules.
• Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
• Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
• Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation.
Such a simple system to forecast something so complex like the Market will create a lot of subjective outcomes and it is not enough to archive a higher degree of success.
The Elliott Wave Theory main pattern is the one in which the Market always advance in 5 waves and each subdivision is also 5 waves in lesser degree cycles. The idea of the 5 waves is known as Motive or Impulse wave and most of the time go with the main trend based on the original concept, as we are showing in the following chart.



If we look at the chart from the beginning of the cycle. There are 3 big cycles, which are labeled in 1-2-3, but only making a 4-5 will make the whole structure an Impulse. By nature, it is always either wave 1-3-5 which will extend and in most of the cases wave 3 is the extended one.
Looking at the same chart, when the cycle ends and then corrects back in 3 waves, it is what is called an ABC pattern. Which is 3 cycles against the main cycle and comes in a wave of 5-3-5.
Like we mentioned above, Mr. Elliott concept is too simple and opens the door for subjective nature. Therefore, we have added rules to the three originals ones to make the concept better.
One of the new rules is the one that makes the difference between an Impulse and an ABC which is the extension. If wave 3 or C pass the 1.618% it means that it is an impulse over an ABC. By sequences, both structures are the same until wave 3 or C ends. In concept 3 cycles, 2 of them in the same direction and subdivided in 5 waves and a connector between them in 3 waves. The following chart is showing an ABC which is a 5-3-5 structure.



As we can see it is the same as the first 3 legs in the previous 5 waves chart. In our new concept, the difference between them is that in an impulse, wave 3 needs to pass the 1.618% extension between 1-2 and at that moment the ABC pattern will become an impulse by rule. This rule is very simple and it will save a lot of subjection to traders and will make them not to pick the wrong side of the market.
For years, we were mentioning how the SPY is within the Blue Box from the Grand Supercycle and that the $318.00 area is key. Which is the same as $3180 in the SPX Index. This level will make a huge difference for the next years in SPY. When many believe a huge decline in World Indices is about to happen and keep selling them, we keep pushing the upside for the last years. Have a look at the following blog we did in the past.
We are waiting for confirmation yet about the $318.00 level in SPY, which is only 24 points away. If it manages to reach that area it will tell that we can be ending a cycle in the Supercycle degree from 2009 But the Grand Supercycle will be extending higher after a pullback. Which can be seen in the chart below:

SPY Monthly Elliott Wave Chart 04.29.2019


The $318.00 level is the 1.618% extension between (I) and (II) and by reaching it, it will make the difference between an ABC or impulse since the all-time lows.
In 1930s Mr. Elliott did not have tools like we have today. He was a genius in his own way, but with today’s tools, Traders and Elliott Wave Services needs to make it better and follow the progress instead of applying a very open concept which is a century old. $318.00 will open the door to $400.00 in the years to come and provide another multi-year cycle.

Elliot Wave View: Impulsive Decline in CADJPY

Short Term Elliott Wave view in CADJPY calls the bounce to 84.37 on April 17, 2019 as wave 2. The pair is currently in wave 3 lower and the internal subdivides as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 84.37, wave (i) ended at 83.49, wave (ii) ended at 83.925, wave (iii) ended at 82.66, wave (iv) ended at 83.33, and wave (v) ended at 82.53. This 5 waves decline ended higher degree wave ((i)) of 3. Pair is currently in wave ((ii)) of 3 correction and the internal subdivides as a Flat Elliott Wave structure.

A Flat is an ABC structure with subdivision of 3-3-5. Up from 82.53, we can see wave (a) ended at 83.2 and subdivides in 3 waves. Wave (b) ended at 82.59, and wave (c) is in progress and subdivides in 5 waves. The blue box of 83.26 – 83.67 shows 100% – 161.8% fibonacci extension of wave (a)-(b). This is the area where wave ((ii)) can potentially complete. More importantly however, as far as the invalidation level of 84.37 stays intact, expect the bounce to fail and pair to extend lower.

1 Hour CADJPY Elliott Wave Chart Post Market Update

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Gold Elliott Wave View: Showing Impulsive Decline
Gold higher time frame cycles suggest that cycle from 8/16/2018 low ended 5 waves advance on February 20, 2019, at $1346.75 high. Since then, Gold is going lower in an impulse manner as the decline is unfolding as Elliott wave zigzag structure. It’s important to note that the cycle from 2/20/2019 peak remains incomplete to the downside therefore, further downside is expected. Looking for more downside towards $1258.18-1242.45 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of Minor A-B before finding support.
The internals of wave C is unfolding as ending diagonal structure where wave ((i)) ended at $1280.70. Wave ((ii)) ended at $1310.60 high, wave ((iii)) ended at $1266.10 low and wave ((iv)) ended with an overlap in wave ((i)) at $1288.87 high. Down from there, the decline can be nesting lower as impulse structure where Minutte wave (i) ended at $1277.90. Minutte wave (ii) ended at $1287.26 high and now Minutte wave (iii) taking place looking for more downside.
Or another possibility is that, if it manages to take out $1272.70 Subminutte wave i, then it can be ending 5 waves decline from 4/26/2019 peak ( $1288.87) in Minutte wave (i). Then 3 wave bounce can take place against $1288.87 high in Minutte wave (ii) before further downside take place. We do not like buying Gold in the shorter cycle and still favor more downside as far as pivot at $1288.87 remains intact.
Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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