The median line did move below last weeks lower bound, but PA is just choppy sideways.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
2
- #643
- Apr 16, 2019 3:01pm Apr 16, 2019 3:01pm
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,931 Posts
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
- #646
- Apr 16, 2019 11:34pm Apr 16, 2019 11:34pm
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,931 Posts
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
- #647
- Apr 17, 2019 10:55am Apr 17, 2019 10:55am
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,931 Posts
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
- #648
- Apr 17, 2019 1:42pm Apr 17, 2019 1:42pm
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,931 Posts
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
- #649
- Apr 17, 2019 3:25pm Apr 17, 2019 3:25pm
Hi guys! In my opinion don't rush to trade, see what happened under 60.00 line, a 1-week consolidation before the next move. We have to wait for a "corrective structure" here under 65 too to show us the "next long term" direction. Of course, we can take many short term trades in this consolidation (Preferably sell) for small profits too, but the real down move / deep pullback depends on the pattern of daily consolidation. The bigger and the longer the consolidation the faster and longer-term move after {image} For another example please check out...
Yesterday I noticed we are making a complex pattern like this but on a smaller scale:
Check out the current pattern with the copied one here (so beautiful huh?):
If I'm right, from tomorrow the move should start
What do you think guys?
Cheers
We can't control the sea, but we can learn how to surf the waves.
Sleep well.
Hello everyone, I'm really enjoying this little community of traders. It's always good to bounce ideas of each other in my opinion. Here is my contribution I hope you find it of some use. {image} Thanks Jack
As requested here is how I use COT reports and IV
How I use Implied Volatility Premiums/Discounts
Volatility is just another factor I use when trading markets along with price and volume
I'm sure you know the old saying buy low sell high? When using implied vol terms we say sell complacency and buy fear.
When implied vol is at a discount we assume investors are becoming complacent and are bullish on the market. Conversely, when implied volatility is at a premium those same investors are becoming fearful.
I try to avoid becoming part of the herd as the herd generally lose. Implied volatility is a great way of measuring the sentiment of investors for a particular asset.
Z-scores for implied volatility give us a reference point in which to judge the current level of premium/discount. A 32% premium on oil is not the same as a 32% for the S&P. A Z-score of -3 indicates 3 standard deviations away from the mean and extreme levels of complacency amongst investors compared to the average. A +3 indicates an extreme level of fear compared to the average.
How I use the COT report
As said above I try to avoid following the herd. My reasoning for this is price has a tendency to mean revert when we reach extreme levels. When will that reversion happen? We don’t know. What we do know is that reversion is closer than it was before.
When the herd are Net short the euro with a Z-Score of -1.55 I stop shorting the euro.
These indicators are tools like a compass helping us navigate the asset you are trading. What they are not is BUY/SELL signals. Don’t buy the euro just because everyone else is short and don’t sell oil just because of an implied volatility discount. Please use these tools to augment your current trading process and manage risk more effectively
On that note here is today implied vol for Oil today
I hope this helps and please be patient with my grammar. I’m a trader, not an English teacher.
Thanks, Jack
How I use Implied Volatility Premiums/Discounts
Volatility is just another factor I use when trading markets along with price and volume
I'm sure you know the old saying buy low sell high? When using implied vol terms we say sell complacency and buy fear.
When implied vol is at a discount we assume investors are becoming complacent and are bullish on the market. Conversely, when implied volatility is at a premium those same investors are becoming fearful.
I try to avoid becoming part of the herd as the herd generally lose. Implied volatility is a great way of measuring the sentiment of investors for a particular asset.
Z-scores for implied volatility give us a reference point in which to judge the current level of premium/discount. A 32% premium on oil is not the same as a 32% for the S&P. A Z-score of -3 indicates 3 standard deviations away from the mean and extreme levels of complacency amongst investors compared to the average. A +3 indicates an extreme level of fear compared to the average.
How I use the COT report
As said above I try to avoid following the herd. My reasoning for this is price has a tendency to mean revert when we reach extreme levels. When will that reversion happen? We don’t know. What we do know is that reversion is closer than it was before.
When the herd are Net short the euro with a Z-Score of -1.55 I stop shorting the euro.
These indicators are tools like a compass helping us navigate the asset you are trading. What they are not is BUY/SELL signals. Don’t buy the euro just because everyone else is short and don’t sell oil just because of an implied volatility discount. Please use these tools to augment your current trading process and manage risk more effectively
On that note here is today implied vol for Oil today
I hope this helps and please be patient with my grammar. I’m a trader, not an English teacher.
Thanks, Jack