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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #11,401
  • Apr 17, 2019 8:16am Apr 17, 2019 8:16am
Quoting bistolis
{quote} Makes you think, that sometimes it is exactly that. Or we ourselves setup up the way we enter trades exactly for something like that to happen What I would like to see first is a confirmed high. which doesnt exist yet on the daily or weekly {image} Is it really going down ? I am not yet comfortable with higher frames. I am just "talking".
You are correct. There is no confirmed swing high. I was not seeing things, I was tweaking reality to match my bias - or I just haven't paid enough attention. In general this set up wasn't an A+. Now in hindsight not even a C setup. Back to the market, now with focus on better set ups and closer look to the details. Thanks bistolis.
Accept the risk!
  • #11,402
  • Apr 17, 2019 8:29am Apr 17, 2019 8:29am
Quoting Rub
{quote} Well looking back at it, I'm not sure where exactly I went wrong on this NZDCAD trade. Any comments?
I got smashed. Maybe premature entry?
  • #11,403
  • Apr 17, 2019 8:56am Apr 17, 2019 8:56am
madafakaaaaaa
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jhPxSGfOZ6.jpg Size: 108 KB
"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #11,404
  • Apr 17, 2019 9:41am Apr 17, 2019 9:41am
Quoting Scrumy
{quote} GBPNZD, short, H4 bistolis, thank you for asking. Below what I thought to enter the trade. Big Boss (W1): Ranging in the WCC, lots of wicks. PRICE at EMA200, which I didn't consider too much. Boss (D1): BEEB into Strat Shadow. Immediate trend down. Worker (H4): Immediate trend down. Therefore aligned with Boss. Closed below my SR line. Pending sell order below EMA200. Edit: H, L, LH structure on Worker. {image} And the aftermath: {image}
i have no idea why this wouldnt work. your explanations are good and easy to understand. but looking at your chart analysis the only thing i couldnt really see much of was the bearish long wicks like you said "lots of wicks". or did i get it wrong....
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,405
  • Apr 17, 2019 10:07am Apr 17, 2019 10:07am
Scrumy,

My thoughts on GBPNZD.

A WWC is a function of the boss. It:
1. has no direction ( it's a consolidation)
2. has a top (resistance)
3. has a bottom ( support)
4. has a range (which is the same on all lower time frames)
5. is meant to be traded with PA within its range
6. PA on daily normally has ATR to great to trade
7. drop to H4 to achieve a smaller ATR
8. I'm still trading the daily (worker) but doing so on a H4 chart to achieve smaller ATR
9. a breakout occurs when a WEEKLY close occurs outside of the range

What have I forgotten guys. Add to it or argue with it. As you like.

Best regards

Frank
  • #11,406
  • Apr 17, 2019 11:08am Apr 17, 2019 11:08am
Quoting Fxentropy
madafakaaaaaa {image}

madafakkkaaaaaa 2
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Click to Enlarge Name: iRAEfVIPOL.jpg Size: 237 KB
"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #11,407
  • Apr 17, 2019 11:16am Apr 17, 2019 11:16am
Quoting Frank0
Scrumy, My thoughts on GBPNZD. A WWC is a function of the boss. It: 1. has no direction ( it's a consolidation) 2. has a top (resistance) 3. has a bottom ( support) 4. has a range (which is the same on all lower time frames) 5. is meant to be traded with PA within its range 6. PA on daily normally has ATR to great to trade 7. drop to H4 to achieve a smaller ATR 8. I'm still trading the daily (worker) but doing so on a H4 chart to achieve smaller ATR 9. a breakout occurs when a WEEKLY close occurs outside of the range What have I forgotten guys....
After Boss close outside of WCC range drop to worker and wait for pullback to S or R and confirmation of support or resistance of WCC range to ensure it is not a false breakout.

Regards
Pete
  • #11,408
  • Edited 2:58pm Apr 17, 2019 11:49am | Edited 2:58pm
Quoting JCMPete
{quote} After Boss close outside of WCC range drop to worker and wait for pullback to S or R and confirmation of support or resistance of WCC range to ensure it is not a false breakout. Regards Pete
Pete,

Please allow me some paraphrasing. I think you have an excellent point here.

If the boss WCC breakout is long, that WCC resistance line has been broken and now could become a support line.
If that line holds as support on the worker (daily), it is conformation of the breakout.

Did I say the same thing ( I hope)?

best to you

Frank
  • #11,409
  • Apr 17, 2019 5:55pm Apr 17, 2019 5:55pm
Quoting pippoacher
{quote} I got smashed. Maybe premature entry?
I had also entered long on close above the 9sma but after looking more closely I closed the trade.

Once I did my analysis on Power of Time Frames it seems that the most reasonable trade would be down.

My approach is somewhat different than I have been using lately.

Setting most recent Big Boss close (green line)

Then setting most recent Boss close indicates price is moving down (red line)

Then setting most recent Worker close which occurred and rejected the shadow (blue line) also down
Last but not least the worker shadow is red and down.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,410
  • Apr 18, 2019 1:30am Apr 18, 2019 1:30am
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} I had also entered long on close above the 9sma but after looking more closely I closed the trade. Once I did my analysis on Power of Time Frames it seems that the most reasonable trade would be down. My approach is somewhat different than I have been using lately. Setting most recent Big Boss close (green line) Then setting most recent Boss close indicates price is moving down (red line) Then setting most recent Worker close which occurred and rejected the shadow (blue line) also down Last but not least the worker shadow is red and down....
Hi Terry, thanks for your reply. I couldn't agree with you more. I have made certain changes in the way I trade PASR, i only trade two instruments and NZD/CAD isnt one of them, but I charged in without applying my mind significantly. A major difficulty I have with PASR, is that the previous strategy I traded is not dissimilar to PASR and I have some very bad habits. When Rub mentioned he was looking at it I got very excited lol, but maybe I must stick to my knitting.
Learning everyday

green pips mate
  • #11,411
  • Apr 18, 2019 1:44am Apr 18, 2019 1:44am
Quoting Frank0
{quote} Pete, Please allow me some paraphrasing. I think you have an excellent point here. If the boss WCC breakout is long, that WCC resistance line has been broken and now could become a support line. If that line holds as support on the worker (daily), it is conformation of the breakout. Did I say the same thing ( I hope)? best to you Frank
Hi Frank

Yes, agreed. If the support does not hold it will be a false breakout from the WCC.

Regards
Pete
  • #11,412
  • Apr 18, 2019 3:11am Apr 18, 2019 3:11am
Quoting Scrumy
{quote} Rub's NZDCAD long Big Boss: last months candle showed long wick Boss: currently in a "young" two week WCC. Bears have been strong. Now taking a pause. PRICE at bottom of WCC. Worker: you had Strat Shadow Dynamic SR directly above ahead. {image} The primary trend was down (the primary trend is the immediate trend of the next higher timeframe). So your entry was a bit "early". But as I posted yesterday, there are plenty of examples in the threads that don't consider...
Thanks Scrumy. What you've written there is about what I concluded in my dissection. The big one was trading against the immediate trend, I wasn't trading what the price action was telling me so much as what I wanted it to do.

Regarding your GBPNZD trade, the long wick on a couple of candles before your 4hr trade would've had me cautious, and if that blue dotted line is support I think you maybe did that classic I've been struggling with of trading directly into support. Also looking at your weekly chart I see bigger moves up and small, doji like downs in this consolidation. Might be the benefit of hindsight though!

Quoting pippoacher
{quote} I got smashed. Maybe premature entry?
pippoacher, Scrumy gave me a good reply on the last page, and you can see above my conclusion is similar.

Thanks Terry for chiming in too, your approch makes sense, and if it works for you keep doing it!
  • #11,413
  • Apr 18, 2019 4:44am Apr 18, 2019 4:44am
Quoting Rub
{quote} Thanks Scrumy. What you've written there is about what I concluded in my dissection. The big one was trading against the immediate trend, I wasn't trading what the price action was telling me so much as what I wanted it to do. Regarding your GBPNZD trade, the long wick on a couple of candles before your 4hr trade would've had me cautious, and if that blue dotted line is support I think you maybe did that classic I've been struggling with of trading directly into support. Also looking at your weekly chart I see bigger moves up and small,...
I saw that matey, Thanks Scrumy
  • #11,414
  • Apr 18, 2019 2:50pm Apr 18, 2019 2:50pm
Quoting Scrumy
{quote} I agree. But there are plenty examples (see below), which didn't have confluence of the higher time frames. Examples: strat: no confluence of higher timeframe, just a BUEB into Strat Shadow (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...90#post7400690) patrick25: lots of tails, no confluence of higher timeframes (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...64#post6680364) strat: entry based on PA at SR - again no confluence of higher timeframes (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...70#post7093770)...
Additional informations on my previous post. In the old thread strat shows some PASR trades and declaring them explicitly as counter trend trades. So this confirms my "observations". Lots of examples starting here:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...41#post7108141

So for us beginners it is always better to enter those trades in the direction of the PRIMARY trend (the immediate trend on the next higher timeframe). I guess if we get more experienced at PASR, we can enter those counter trend trades that aren't aligned with the PRIMARY trend as well.
Accept the risk!
  • #11,415
  • Apr 19, 2019 4:46am Apr 19, 2019 4:46am
HAPPY EASTER GOOD TRADERS


Happy Hols.......
Cameron
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,416
  • Apr 21, 2019 4:58am Apr 21, 2019 4:58am
"Old" Videos about PASR

While searching for strat's old website due to the latest discussions in the old thread (thanks again Shadow2017 and Corinna), I found two interesting videos on a YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXc...fmVGlpFjJpQ1HA. Don't know if it is strat's channel (cause PASR is written incorrectly and that does not look like "strats handwriting"), but one video is from strat, the other from a 3 star trader explaining things to a 1 star trader.

"NZDUSD Trend vs PSAR" (PASR!!!)
Inserted Video


"Video 1379871909"
(Why autofocus on the mouse? )
Inserted Video
Accept the risk!
  • #11,417
  • Apr 21, 2019 5:49am Apr 21, 2019 5:49am
Trading Week #16 Review

After two weeks of watching and trading Basic PASR on M1 Bootcamp, I was focussing on H4 Basic PASR trading this week.

Here was my plan for week 16:
Attached Image


This week's trades:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TradesCW16.png Size: 521 KB


And here is the week's summary:
Attached Image


I closed all of my trades on Friday, because I didn't want to leave anything open during the easter holidays.

If you look closely, I have lost way more EUR than I have gained. But that is due to my small account size -> on big stops I risk far more percentages. In total, the week was a (small) success, making 0.67R.

Example: my GBPNZD trade on Wed, 17.04 resulted in a loss of 13.09EUR, which was 1R. Compare this to my trade on USDCAD on Monday - this was a win of 0.5R but only 2.42 EUR win.

This is the limitation of a small acccount, because you can't go lower than 1 microlot (0.01 Lots). And how much you will loose depends on how far you put your stop loss. E.g. you want to risk 1% of a 500 EUR account. That is 5 EUR risk per trade. If you want to put a SL of 200 on GBPNZD that means you are already risking 11.90 EUR on a Microlot.
Either you skip that trade or you accept the risk for this particular trade.

To summarize: don't focus on PL on small accounts, focus on R-Multiples. Decreasing P/L doesn't necessarily mean you are a bad trader.
Accept the risk!
  • #11,418
  • Apr 21, 2019 11:06am Apr 21, 2019 11:06am
Scrumy,

Thank you for posting the videos.
They are most helpful.

Frank
  • #11,419
  • Apr 21, 2019 2:15pm Apr 21, 2019 2:15pm
Quoting Scrumy
"Old" Videos about PASR While searching for strat's old website due to the latest discussions in the old thread (thanks again Shadow2017 and Corinna), I found two interesting videos on a YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXc...fmVGlpFjJpQ1HA. Don't know if it is strat's channel (cause PASR is written incorrectly and that does not look like "strats handwriting"), but one video is from strat, the other from a 3 star trader explaining things...
Wow. what a privelege it is to hear the voice of the person behind this unique sharing of information in this thread and the next. 2nd video was cool. i havent had the opportunity to say thanks Strat for your generosity, kindness and ability to see and do something about some of us traders, fighting against the pitfalls, which would allow us the opportunity to learn what only the priveleged seem to have access to. Given some of us are slower than others i would hope that we all come to this thread eating humble pie.

You are an Exceptional Individual Strat.

Thank You
Cameron
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,420
  • Apr 21, 2019 3:03pm Apr 21, 2019 3:03pm
Strat might need to pause on the Forum, nevertheless one can see on his profile that he stopped ignoring many people, strange
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