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Learning From Unsuccessful Mouteki Trades - The Search for Filters...

  • #201
  • Oct 19, 2006 4:15am Oct 19, 2006 4:15am
At the moment we recognise this system as Mouteki, any other name will be confusing, we have to pay attention to the essence not the name

howard
Regards
  • #202
  • Oct 19, 2006 7:01am Oct 19, 2006 7:01am
llambert3

The results you had posted, are they from forward testing using the pure Mouteki rules? It would be much appreciated if you can tell me if there were any discretionary trades involved, the SL based on Mouteki, etc, etc... There are too many variations being discussed in the threads, I just want to get an idea since at times in forward testing, its not always rosey....

Thanks...
  • #203
  • Oct 19, 2006 9:12am Oct 19, 2006 9:12am
Quoting Mr Trend
And that's just it, right there. See, I don't care if you call it Billy Bob's Method -- just give props where props are due.

I've used Demark lines for awhile now, and it's just annoying when people don't say, "Hey, Demark is a stud and here's what I've done to modify it and make it my own..."

That's all I'm saying -- just give props. But he didn't. He just came up in here on the forums and got 5,000,000 views on a system that came from a book 12 friggin' years ago, and not even ONCE, did he mention it came from Demark.

And what annoys me more is that he's got this huge following and he didn't even create the darn system.

But that's ok. Look for a new Despair parody poster in my poster thread here soon that addresses these common occurrences on forums.
Mr. Trend, you da bomb.

This is vintage Tom DeMark. While I'm grateful for Mouteki to show us his use of DeMark's use of TLs and projections, I do think it a bit...disingenuious to promote this as "his" method...

Lost my considerable *ss betting against a TDTLX (Tom DeMark 4hr Trend Line Break) this morning. Shoulda listened to Tom...

Now if my trading account was only as considerable as..well...you know...
TULKAS
  • #204
  • Oct 19, 2006 9:24am Oct 19, 2006 9:24am
Quoting Tulkas
Mr. Trend, you da bomb.

This is vintage Tom DeMark. While I'm grateful for Mouteki to show us his use of DeMark's use of TLs and projections, I do think it a bit...disingenuious to promote this as "his" method...

Lost my considerable *ss betting against a TDTLX (Tom DeMark 4hr Trend Line Break) this morning. Shoulda listened to Tom...

Now if my trading account was only as considerable as..well...you know...
Thank you for pointing such things out, but I believe that many of the readers of the Mouteki thread knew it was TomDemark, I hope.... Anyhow, from what I understand, one cannot use TDTL alone to trade. Using strictly TA, one needs to recognize chart patterns and then use TDTL for projections.....
  • #205
  • Oct 19, 2006 10:24am Oct 19, 2006 10:24am
Quoting Tulkas
Mr. Trend, you da bomb.

This is vintage Tom DeMark.
While I first learned of the method from Mouteki I then bought the book by Demark because everybody kept claiming this system was Demark's. After reading the first chapter in the book, The New Science of Technical Analysis, it appears Mouteki plagiarized everything from how trend lines are set to even copying Demark's profit projection. The only idea I that I can say is not plagiarized is how Mouteki set his stops but that may show up in a later chapter.
  • #206
  • Oct 19, 2006 10:27am Oct 19, 2006 10:27am
Quoting et_phonehome_2
Thank you for pointing such things out, but I believe that many of the readers of the Mouteki thread knew it was TomDemark, I hope....
Heh. When you look at a thread, and 99% of the names registered have never posted here and the rest our guests... well... it's newbie heaven and I seriously doubt they even heard of Tom Demark before.
Quoting et_phonehome_2
Anyhow, from what I understand, one cannot use TDTL alone to trade. Using strictly TA, one needs to recognize chart patterns and then use TDTL for projections.....
Really? Hmm, I must be doing something wrong then, because I make money with TD lines all by themselves.

See, that's the problem -- people think trading is complicated. It's not. It's your head that makes it harder than it is. But people don't believe that and they will continue to drain their accounts.
Mr. Trend
  • #207
  • Oct 19, 2006 10:58am Oct 19, 2006 10:58am
Mr Trend

Its great to know that you are doing great with TDTL, are you strictly using the Mouteki rules for entries and exits? I am interested as to how you enter [is it 4HR TF], and the exits....

Thanks...
  • #208
  • Oct 19, 2006 10:59am Oct 19, 2006 10:59am
Quoting Mr Trend
Heh. When you look at a thread, and 99% of the names registered have never posted here and the rest our guests... well... it's newbie heaven and I seriously doubt they even heard of Tom Demark before.Really? Hmm, I must be doing something wrong then, because I make money with TD lines all by themselves.

See, that's the problem -- people think trading is complicated. It's not. It's your head that makes it harder than it is. But people don't believe that and they will continue to drain their accounts.
Mr. Trend, do you draw your tl like Demark says? And when do you enter a position? If you have a thread already of your strategy, I'd be interested to read it.
  • #209
  • Oct 19, 2006 11:01am Oct 19, 2006 11:01am
Quoting et_phonehome_2
llambert3

The results you had posted, are they from forward testing using the pure Mouteki rules? It would be much appreciated if you can tell me if there were any discretionary trades involved, the SL based on Mouteki, etc, etc... There are too many variations being discussed in the threads, I just want to get an idea since at times in forward testing, its not always rosey....

Thanks...
et - just from September was gonig forward. June, July and August were backtesting. All trades purely Mouteki (or to make Mr. Trend happy Demark) or using the one filter.
  • #210
  • Oct 19, 2006 11:57am Oct 19, 2006 11:57am
Quoting et_phonehome_2
Mr Trend

Its great to know that you are doing great with TDTL, are you strictly using the Mouteki rules for entries and exits? I am interested as to how you enter [is it 4HR TF], and the exits....

Thanks...
I don't use 4 hour. I use daily as I have a day job that, fortunately, allows me to check my trades on a constant basis, but I don't really like having to do that because I'd never get any work done. It's also not good for me mentally.

I'm currently testing a 1 hour entry but the price projection must be close to the daily projection. If it is, I will take the trade as I can squeeze a few more pips out.

Filter-wise, I respect Demark's filters, but I don't use them. My backtesting has shown that taking the trades regardless works fine. If anything, the filters just confirm the probability.

Hope that helps.
Mr. Trend
  • #211
  • Oct 19, 2006 11:58am Oct 19, 2006 11:58am
Quoting llambert3
Mr. Trend, do you draw your tl like Demark says? And when do you enter a position? If you have a thread already of your strategy, I'd be interested to read it.
Yes I do. See my other post regarding entries.

No thread about my strategy. I have enough work to do along with keeping my daily journal that having to post the same trades here is more of a hassle.
Mr. Trend
  • #212
  • Oct 19, 2006 5:22pm Oct 19, 2006 5:22pm
Quoting Mr Trend
I have enough work to do along with keeping my daily journal that having to post the same trades here is more of a hassle.
Yeah I feel you there.
  • #213
  • Oct 20, 2006 10:27am Oct 20, 2006 10:27am
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/776/alo5.jpg
what filter should be used to filter out this disaster trade? Its 4Hr EUR/GBP.
  • #214
  • Oct 20, 2006 11:22am Oct 20, 2006 11:22am
in the first instance, a tightish SL or getting out when price crosses back through TL the other way.

Regarding SL, I personally found that few successful Mouteki trades require a wide SL, it seems quite black&white, either price heads the right direction pretty quickly or it goes the other way.
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #215
  • Oct 20, 2006 10:10pm Oct 20, 2006 10:10pm
Quoting belief
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/776/alo5.jpg
what filter should be used to filter out this disaster trade? Its 4Hr EUR/GBP.
Nothing you could've done. Just failed. What really happened was GBP rallied I guess from good gdp numbers. So eur went down against it.

If you looked at the Daily and Monthly it broke support so was going down. Never used Monthly myself, so that probably is too big a span, but daily was down. Problem is knowing when the daily will turn around.....
  • #216
  • Oct 21, 2006 6:55am Oct 21, 2006 6:55am
been using andrew pitchfork to validate mouteki/TD projection for sometime. it seems good for me. here some example :
http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/8807/gbpusdmy9.gif

- in gbp usd chart, almost every trendline breaks from each pitchfork is a good target for mouteki/TD projection.

http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/5581/usdjpyfq8.gif

- in usd/jpy chart, lower tl bounce from magenta pitchfork happened recently, if price breaks upper line of blue pitchfork (its the same line mouteki indicator draw) , most likely mouteki/TD projection will be hit.

so i only take mouteki trades which trendline from mouteki indicator is inline with andrew pitchfork. in addition, price bouncing from lower line of pitchfork, is a good pre entry warning.
Attached Images
  • #217
  • Oct 21, 2006 7:00am Oct 21, 2006 7:00am
Quoting dutdot
- in usd/jpy chart, lower tl bounce from magenta pitchfork happened recently, if price breaks upper line of blue pitchfork (its the same line mouteki indicator draw) , most likely mouteki/TD projection will be hit.
oops it should be :

in usd/jpy chart, lower tl bounce from BLUE pitchfork happened recently, if price breaks upper line of MAGENTA pitchfork (its the same line mouteki indicator draw) , most likely mouteki/TD projection will be hit.
  • #218
  • Oct 21, 2006 10:03am Oct 21, 2006 10:03am
Hello..
Why do u think this trade went like this...

http://www.esnips.com/nsdoc/55ea45b2...0-6597fcc70699
  • #219
  • Oct 25, 2006 3:00pm Oct 25, 2006 3:00pm
Quoting mungo
Once again not Mouteki but the results and method may be of some help to people considering using Mouteki.

I backyested the following pairs for Aug and Sept: aud/jpy,aud/usd,chf/jpy,eur/aud,eur/jpy,eur/gbp,eur/usd,gbp/chf,gbp/jpy,gbp/usd,nzd/usd,usd/cad,usd/jpy,usd/chf.

My filters were:

1. Waited until the candle opening above/below the TL went 5 pips higher or lower than the candle that broke the TL - even if it was along candle.

...snipped
mungo
Your #1 is actually somewhat near my idea that I am currently researching. I wanted to see how much the opening price (after the breakout) "has" to be away (below or up) from the MEAN (open/close or low/high) of the breakout candle to confirm the breakout.

My second candidate is whether the Mean of the breakout candle is over or under TL and thus confirming the breakout.

What do you think of these? Are these already on test?
  • #220
  • Oct 25, 2006 10:28pm Oct 25, 2006 10:28pm
Quoting nchosen
Your #1 is actually somewhat near my idea that I am currently researching. I wanted to see how much the opening price (after the breakout) "has" to be away (below or up) from the MEAN (open/close or low/high) of the breakout candle to confirm the breakout.

My second candidate is whether the Mean of the breakout candle is over or under TL and thus confirming the breakout.

What do you think of these? Are these already on test?

hmmm, we got Nchosen thinking....... : ) Read in some other posts people using 1hour to confirm a 4hr break or maybe waiting when to get in at least.. Haven't looked at it yet, but will.
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