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Trading with range bars ichimoku cloud & awesome oscillator

  • #4,121
  • Apr 5, 2019 9:26am Apr 5, 2019 9:26am
I Got One!

Went short on GBPUSD; honestly I had to fight myself not to close the trade at 10 pips. Kept the SL at 20 pips and took profit at 25 pips when I saw divergence on the AO (do you guys think this was a good exit?). Also, ADR was 107 so I figured there wasn't much left. I couldn't wait for it to enter the cloud; I'll probably regret it in an hour or so

Thank you RockyPoint for all the good advice. @CLTader @turnip15 @ichikuse and all the contributors; Thank you for the awesome postings. You guys Rock!

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  • #4,122
  • Edited 10:25am Apr 5, 2019 9:38am | Edited 10:25am
For those of you in Europe who trade in the morning, see if your broker / CFD provider has the Hang Seng Index futures available. You can catch the last hour of the afternoon session there around 8 AM - 9 AM, assuming that you're 5 or 6 hours ahead of New York time. Those in the US can trade the morning session (9:15 PM - 12 AM New York Time).

Here's the HSI last hour of the afternoon session on a 1 min chart. The HSI has recently broken through the 30,000 level for the first time so I'd expect a lot of volatility over the next few weeks as they decide if 30K should be taken out or rejected on the bigger timeframes.

The measurement on this chart gives you an idea of the dollar amount involved when trading 1 contract in a nice trend. From the top of the Ichi to the top of this trend was around 122 pts (1 pt = 1 tick = 50 HKD = $6.37 USD [5.67 Euros]). So 122 pts = $777 USD = 691.8 Euros. Your broker may also have the mini contract version where 1 min contract is 1/5th the amount of the big contract per tick. I would encourage everyone to at least practice with the HSI in sim trading.

The orange line is a 9 wma. The cyan line line is a 20 ema. This was a very strong trend run along the 9 wma. Look at the red bars. If you measure all of the red bar closes from how much each went against you (if you chose it as an actual entry or an add-on contract to an initial RP Ichi entry signal) vs the gain to the top of the trend, every single one was simply outstanding. This is the "personality" of a great trending trading instrument. They're all going to "ride" a 9 wma or 20 ema or both before final breakdown. So don't be afraid to add to your winners b/c your initial entry is far from being the only good entry with low risk / high reward before the trend is over.
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  • #4,123
  • Apr 5, 2019 11:29am Apr 5, 2019 11:29am
Quoting CLTrader
For those of you in Europe who trade in the morning, see if your broker / CFD provider has the Hang Seng Index futures available. You can catch the last hour of the afternoon session there around 8 AM - 9 AM, assuming that you're 5 or 6 hours ahead of New York time. Those in the US can trade the morning session (9:15 PM - 12 AM New York Time). Here's the HSI last hour of the afternoon session on a 1 min chart. The HSI has recently broken through the 30,000 level for the first time so I'd expect a lot of volatility over the next few weeks as they...
I love the HSI. Good call.
  • #4,124
  • Apr 5, 2019 12:13pm Apr 5, 2019 12:13pm
No regrets Minnesota, winning trade, good exit congratulations on your first win
  • #4,125
  • Apr 7, 2019 9:13am Apr 7, 2019 9:13am
After 200 pages of this thread, with all of the chart images posted of good trades, trades that didn't work out, RP showing examples of when "a chart looks good to trade", I am hoping that I can maybe give you an idea of how to have "good taste" without years and years of stored-up patterns in your mind, accessible in real-time trading mainly in the form of intuition.

Below are two sessions of the HSI (Hang Seng Index futures) and the third one is a March 2019 1 min HSI session where trends are starting at the top of clouds (and pulling back to it). All I've marked on the chart are the trends with my perfect 20/20 hindsight so that you can see how far each went (100 pts = $637 USD per contract) and also their relation to an Ichimoku Cloud setting of 9,16,52. Forget for a moment RP's signal to enter a trade. What to you see? I see trends which start at the bottom or tops of the clouds, trends where it is bisected by a cloud (i.e. the cloud being a midpoint area of the trend) and a trend which started completely outside of any cloud and ended halfway into one.

I cannot speak for the currency pairs, but what I have seen on the HSI for the past year is that on the trends which started before an Ichi Cloud and crossed all the way through to the other side before ending, I'm more likely than not entering into that trend just past the midway point of it so I shouldn't be expecting a lot of follow-through. The lower risk entry is a move back to the top or bottom of the cloud before expecting a stronger leg in my intended direction.

You can never know the very start or end of of a trend in real-time with high probability but you can certainly measure them historically and see what volatility tendencies they have per instrument and use whatever statistical/technical microscope you care to use. You *can* identify the top or bottom of a trend in real-time once price has traveled a sufficient distance from a high or low price and use your collected research to give you better reward to risk ratios at no worse than a 40% winning pct (actually, a 40%-60% is the window you'll tend to "slide around" in).

Everyone has to do their own research, but it appears to me that the lower odds of winning trades I have seen posted to this forum have occurred on entries on some break of horizontal support or resistance BEYOND the actual start of the trend, way past where the cloud is bisecting it. That is, the cloud is marking the middle section of the distance the trend is likely to go, on average, and the RP signal entry is probably on the last third of its trend distance (or less) before it significantly reverses. I think this will help filter out your less than 40% chance of winning RP trade signals.
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  • #4,126
  • Apr 7, 2019 1:41pm Apr 7, 2019 1:41pm
Quoting CLTrader
After 200 pages of this thread, with all of the chart images posted of good trades, trades that didn't work out, RP showing examples of when "a chart looks good to trade", I am hoping that I can maybe give you an idea of how to have "good taste" without years and years of stored-up patterns in your mind, accessible in real-time trading mainly in the form of intuition. Below are two sessions of the HSI (Hang Seng Index futures) and the third one is a March 2019 1 min HSI session where trends are starting at the top of clouds (and pulling back to...
A perfect example of the benefits of finding your chosen instrument and mastering its behaviour.

Nicely done.
  • #4,127
  • Apr 8, 2019 1:10am Apr 8, 2019 1:10am
Insightful thoughts/comments as always ClTrader. Will be interesting to cast this over some forex pairs and see if it applies.
Thanks for sharing.
  • #4,128
  • Edited 9:21am Apr 9, 2019 7:41am | Edited 9:21am
HI Everyone, First attempt EUR/CHF 1m , i entered on white line, the gap is the spread, couldn't manage the trade as im working as well, trail stop got me out, is the entry ok ? Also is it ok to not use range bars, i tried them but seemed to confuse me prefer a straight 1m chart, Cheers M.
EDIT: Forgot to say Eur/chf was the only chart i could find that wasn't messy and had a good reading on the strength meter.
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  • #4,129
  • Apr 10, 2019 8:17am Apr 10, 2019 8:17am
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, or equilibrium chart, isolates higher probability trades in the forex market.
  • #4,130
  • Apr 10, 2019 9:53am Apr 10, 2019 9:53am
Quoting JosepeMilo
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, or equilibrium chart, isolates higher probability trades in the forex market.
I see you are posting in many threads, but in case you come back could you explain your post ?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,131
  • Apr 11, 2019 7:16am Apr 11, 2019 7:16am
Hi people.Just closed my sell on gold.
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  • #4,132
  • Apr 11, 2019 9:55am Apr 11, 2019 9:55am
Quoting ichikuse
{quote} I do filter my trades on 15m chart with a 200 ema and i dont trade against the 200 ema on 15m just to try and increase probability in my favour. You said its your last post.Not so fast !Are you retiring from trading?
EDIT:I do sometimes trade against the 200 ema on m15 when its a counter trend trade but has to have high probability.
  • #4,133
  • Apr 11, 2019 10:02am Apr 11, 2019 10:02am
Quoting ichikuse
{quote} Hi.My trading style is to always trade in the direction of the 4h trends.I have not stopped doing that.However, although watching 1h charts was very helpful, i went down to 15m charts to get early entries and stop losses not bigger than 20 pips.For me,trends are much more clearer on 15m charts.I also believe this is because of my trading style so others may disagree.So i dont trade against the 15m 200 ema.The only times i do will be when 4h time frame price is turning when the market is constructing a swing on the 4h.I am a firm believer...
EDIT:Just to clarify, I do multi time frame analysis 4h,1h,15m in particular.
I have shown in the attached photos why i sold gold.

I base trades on h4 that is why i have profit targets around 50 pips plus although i take what the market gives because many trades fail despite any analysis...
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  • #4,134
  • Apr 11, 2019 12:18pm Apr 11, 2019 12:18pm
Been having a string of losses this week. I need to get better at picking strong trending pairs even with the power indicator. This was my last trade for the day. I may have bought too far from the cloud. Is it me or were most pairs choppy this morning?
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  • #4,135
  • Apr 11, 2019 1:48pm Apr 11, 2019 1:48pm
Quoting Minnesota
Been having a string of losses this week. I need to get better at picking strong trending pairs even with the power indicator. This was my last trade for the day. I may have bought too far from the cloud. Is it me or were most pairs choppy this morning? {image}
For me, you're getting in far too late in the move. I would have looked at three entries previous to the one you used (the break and two rejection candles). You have to be careful how many times you poke the bear.
  • #4,136
  • Apr 11, 2019 2:31pm Apr 11, 2019 2:31pm
Quoting Minnesota
Been having a string of losses this week. I need to get better at picking strong trending pairs even with the power indicator. This was my last trade for the day. I may have bought too far from the cloud. Is it me or were most pairs choppy this morning? {image}
Yeah your entry's where shitty .. Exits Too. ... Adr and yh yl are good targets too close a trade. . You don't have to wait to close a trade only when it goes to the other side of the cloud.. .. Next time try to get in just after the break or else wait for the next setup.....you also could get in at a small retrace or a opposite candle after it broke prev high or low..... I do not know wich Ema's or on your chart. ... But also a possibility to enter ..... Keep posting examples .. I think there will more then enough people to help you.. . Have a nice evening .. Cheers
  • #4,137
  • Apr 11, 2019 3:09pm Apr 11, 2019 3:09pm
Quoting Minnesota
Been having a string of losses this week. I need to get better at picking strong trending pairs even with the power indicator. This was my last trade for the day. I may have bought too far from the cloud. Is it me or were most pairs choppy this morning? {image}
I agree with Lemercenaire and Patje.Please check comments in the attached pic.
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  • #4,138
  • Apr 11, 2019 3:31pm Apr 11, 2019 3:31pm
Quoting ichikuse
{quote} I agree with Lemercenaire and Patje.Please check comments in the attached pic. {image}
Thanks guys - makes sense to me in hindsight. I think I was to eager to put on a trade and didn't want to miss this move. I'll stay away from gbpjpy and gbpnzd
  • #4,139
  • Apr 12, 2019 5:38am Apr 12, 2019 5:38am
Dax round up.
A good morning.
See you next week.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,140
  • Apr 12, 2019 7:19am Apr 12, 2019 7:19am
When you catch a 9 period trend like that, you can space out your adds (whatever your standard lot size is) at any approach back to the 9 and your average price will never be challenged. That's the "easiest" way I know how to make large gains without large risk in a short amount of time.
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