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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #58,321
  • Apr 8, 2019 2:32pm Apr 8, 2019 2:32pm
Men and Lady,

Did I trigger an avalanche of words. Sorry if I did.

What happened to the teachings of great Gods and Masters. First it was written by the disciples. Was it approved by the God, himself. Debatable. Right?

Even if approved by God himself how was it transmitted, to the next generations. Do you believe the great teachings were the same in its purest form. Please answer yourself without getting struck with the religion your are attached to.

Luckily, FTI's words will be intact as he wrote them here in FF. The REAL threat is when FF deletes the thread permanently. So can we work together to copy his teachings somewhere else too. Just in case.

I think most of the.great traders are great human beings. An agitated and a person'
who had given permission to a barking dog on the street to make thyself angry, somehow won't survive this business long.

Fail to understand this. when you are interested in a thread for first time where will you start reading it from. 1st page or last page. 1st page unless you were born in middle East right ? :-)

I would like to thank everyone by calling your individual names. My PC broke so did this from mobile. Apologies for that. I think all who taught.are great human beings. I also.like to think FTI had compelled each one of you to be like that.

I will reply to everyone later for quoting my earlier post.

Special thanks to cookie for constantly reminding me that I don't know a single shit in trading. Awesome guy.

I want to tell changing from Forex to regulated exchange traded instrument of my country was the single main factor in my success. Please do not underestimate this and wishing you good luck.

Reverting...
  • #58,322
  • Apr 8, 2019 3:30pm Apr 8, 2019 3:30pm
Quoting Exnav
{quote} My Brexiting Stop on TAF Thread My Dear Friend, You don't have to prove anything to anyone. Neither please for your health sake, let's go sleeping. The guys enjoy the process, I like them: Delta1 , etc. real PROs, big money (they trade billions as they did in their banks). But, Cookie, it's your life, don't take it as insult. Everything here is just a game. We are Ants here, focus on your own life and your own success. Let them attack you or me. I'm happy. Go ahead. They Stop and Come here to continue. All appreciation...
since you called my name
yes, i´m a pro.
no, i´m not trading billions
how comes you think jupiter is trading demo? more important: he´s giving live trade calls - unlike all that hindsight-heros which are so common on forex facebook. please: proving trading live by posting last weeks peanut-trading? lol rofl lol.
indices are by far better for those who know how to. regulated markets and nearly index arbitrage free instead of otc.

no hindsight. no commercial stuff. no bullshit. just live trade calls. +10.000 of them over the past years.
p.s.: yes, you are an ant.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #58,323
  • Apr 8, 2019 3:36pm Apr 8, 2019 3:36pm
@all


not my opinion but straight from the great man himself...

please read also posts above that lead to this.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...16#post6878816

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #58,324
  • Apr 8, 2019 3:36pm Apr 8, 2019 3:36pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} since you called my name yes, i´m a pro. no, i´m not trading billions how comes you think jupiter is trading demo? more important: he´s giving live trade calls - unlike all that hindsight-heros which are so common on forex facebook. please: proving trading live by posting last weeks peanut-trading? lol rofl lol. indices are by far better for those who know how to. regulated markets and nearly index arbitrage free instead of otc. no hindsight. no commercial stuff....
indices are by far better for those who know how to. regulated markets and nearly index arbitrage free instead of otc

Delta

whenever you have time and or will ... could you explain why indices are far better than Eurusd ... its not a troll but im really trying to understand your view


SB
trying to make everyday the best risk/reward decisions possible
  • #58,325
  • Apr 8, 2019 3:42pm Apr 8, 2019 3:42pm
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} indices are by far better for those who know how to. regulated markets and nearly index arbitrage free instead of otc Delta whenever you have time and or will ... could you explain why indices are far better than Eurusd ... its not a troll but im really trying to understand your view SB
no offence taken; you asked me in a polite manner. so i´ll try to explain. might take some time...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #58,326
  • Apr 8, 2019 4:40pm Apr 8, 2019 4:40pm
1) forex is mainly an otc market. mainly unregulated. dominated by the big boys. nearly no one within the top ten by volume was not convicted by financial market authorities for financial crime, f.e. manipulating price or interest rate esp. around fixing time (front-running, price-rigging, libor etc).
2) indices and futures are highly regulated by authorities. more important, there´s a definite relationship between spot and future market price. index arbitrage needs high volume and is only possible with high frequency trading which is by far faster than any human is possible to do - it´s an algo-thingy. this means that an possible arbitrage opportunity will be eliminated within (nano-) seconds. therefor, price in a normal environment is "fair" at a given moment in time.
3) there´s an order-book for indices futures, available in realtime (eurex f.e.). you can see when volume hits the market. there´s no tool like this in forex market.
4) having said this, i don´t believe markets are random. you might read the books of nassim nicholas taleb (f.e. fooled by randomness, the black swan). banks are still using financial models which are based upon the gaussian normal distribution curve which is WRONG (fat tails)! many of them had to close prop trading due to financial markets regulation because the past results where so disgusting. the main source of liquidity in the short run, also on dark-pools, comes now from hedge-funds and/or algorithm trading firms.
5) a currency is no real asset. while trading forex, you just exchange fiat money to fiat money (ok, there are swaps). but the big money/investment capital is looking for higher interest: dividends. in the long run, there´s a pressure to real investments, and the biggest and most liquid market is the stock market. the trend is your friend, and as long as interest rates stay low, there´s a pressure to buy stocks. in an uptrend, it´s easy to buy the dip.

p.s.: the most important part: volatility is so much higher on indices than on forex. all a trader needs is vola
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #58,327
  • Apr 8, 2019 4:57pm Apr 8, 2019 4:57pm
Quoting deltaone
1) forex is mainly an otc market. mainly unregulated. dominated by the big boys. nearly no one within the top ten by volume was not convicted by financial market authorities for financial crime, f.e. manipulating price or interest rate esp. around fixing time (front-running, price-rigging, libor etc). 2) indices and futures are highly regulated by authorities. more important, there´s a definite relationship between spot and future market price. index arbitrage needs high volume and is only possible with high frequency trading which is by far faster...
whaouuu... excellent food for thoughts .. the way i like it
intreresting explanations
in fact i start to look at indices very closely for the past few weeks.

Thanks a lot for the time and efforts you spend to answer , i really appreciate
SB
trying to make everyday the best risk/reward decisions possible
  • #58,328
  • Apr 8, 2019 5:01pm Apr 8, 2019 5:01pm
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} whaouuu... excellent food for thoughts .. the way i like it intreresting explanations in fact i start to look at indices very closely for the past few weeks. Thanks a lot for the time and efforts you spend to answer , i really appreciate SB
you´re welcome.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #58,329
  • Apr 8, 2019 9:58pm Apr 8, 2019 9:58pm
Good Morning Exnav,

Had nice and deep sleep. It is amazing how mind store all happened in a day when one sleep.

i am reading this thread, few lines from Aow and sleep over it. every day improving mindset and documenting my learning from the trading.

Still difficult to suppress the scorpion, and see the help oldman asked for.

Still working on to identify if it is ego trade or rescue. overcoming one hurdle at a time.

ok. time to do some Ant work.

regards
Ant
  • #58,330
  • Apr 8, 2019 10:09pm Apr 8, 2019 10:09pm
Dolr seems weak.

Eurozone seems leading. cable , yen following.

euro/usd bottomed, already reversed? let's see.

all kingdom aligned.

my bias is usd weak. scout in.
  • #58,331
  • Apr 8, 2019 10:11pm Apr 8, 2019 10:11pm
Quoting deltaone
1) forex is mainly an otc market. mainly unregulated. dominated by the big boys. nearly no one within the top ten by volume was not convicted by financial market authorities for financial crime, f.e. manipulating price or interest rate esp. around fixing time (front-running, price-rigging, libor etc). 2) indices and futures are highly regulated by authorities. more important, there´s a definite relationship between spot and future market price. index arbitrage needs high volume and is only possible with high frequency trading which is by...
This is what I have been trying to highlight all the time and kept being brought out of context by Jupiter.
  • #58,332
  • Apr 8, 2019 10:16pm Apr 8, 2019 10:16pm
guys, let's focus on trade.

by the way i was long eur/usd yesterday and made some foreign capital. kept scout overnight and took some profile in morning.

now in new setup.
  • #58,333
  • Edited 12:35am Apr 9, 2019 12:17am | Edited 12:35am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} since you called my name yes, i´m a pro. no, i´m not trading billions how comes you think jupiter is trading demo? more important: he´s giving live trade calls - unlike all that hindsight-heros which are so common on forex facebook. please: proving trading live by posting last weeks peanut-trading? lol rofl lol. indices are by far better for those who know how to. regulated markets and nearly index arbitrage free instead of otc. no hindsight. no commercial stuff....
My Brexiting "DAXy Trailing STOP" on TAF
Hello DeltaOne,

Thank you for your diligent feedback.
First of all, I like your call sign.
All what is written by you must be true. Everything is relative. +10.000 USD or +10.000 Eurocents. So what? For me or to you?
BTW, did you see Exnav on your Daxy thread? Wasn't that DeltaOne coming on TAF just to show that he is a PRO and other guys here are....? Anyway, I like you - big PRO. Shouldn't we mind our own business better, maybe?
Whatever (if) I must prove, it's only for my own benefit. Since you are a PRO, you are supposed to understand my point. Especially, when it comes to big 10000. I don't teach here, neither prove nor advocate my way of trading.
Enjoy your game.

P.S. As regards "Jupiter's Demo", you could ask him. I mentioned his concerns on 300 pips on my Demo account, for special technical purposes.

My Brexiting "DAXy Trailing STOP" on TAF
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,334
  • Edited 1:07am Apr 9, 2019 12:25am | Edited 1:07am
Quoting pannet1
Men and Lady, Did I trigger an avalanche of words. ..
My Brexiting STOP on TAF

Hello Pannet,

"Special thanks to cookie for constantly reminding me that I don't know a single shit in trading." - Neither nor I and will never do.
You had better asked PROs - in order to make a shortcut, perhaps.

On a serious note, just read what Dongsky has generously replied to you.

P.S. On one traders public forum years ago, a guy stated that he had 250K immediately available but didn't know how to trade... He got numbers of assistants/ teachers/ advisers instantly. Be aware.

All the best,
Exnav

My Brexiting STOP on TAF
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,335
  • Apr 9, 2019 1:18am Apr 9, 2019 1:18am
Quoting antmindset
Good Morning Exnav, Had nice and deep sleep. It is amazing how mind store all happened in a day when one sleep. i am reading this thread, few lines from Aow and sleep over it. every day improving mindset and documenting my learning from the trading. Still difficult to suppress the scorpion, and see the help oldman asked for. Still working on to identify if it is ego trade or rescue. overcoming one hurdle at a time. ok. time to do some Ant work. regards Ant
My Brexiting STOP on TAF

Dear Ant,

The most important that it were not a death rescue as our friend Pannet1 mentioned the other day. Otherwise, at least I can, IMHO, see that you are doing well.

Best regards,
Exnav

My Brexiting STOP on TAF
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,336
  • Apr 9, 2019 1:29am Apr 9, 2019 1:29am
Quoting antmindset
Dolr seems weak. Eurozone seems leading. cable , yen following. euro/usd bottomed, already reversed? let's see. all kingdom aligned. my bias is usd weak. scout in.
Hi antmindset

it (E/U) actually suggested its turn/bottom 6 days ago, then had a final stop run, look at the charts my friend and may you see it, start at daily 6 full days back then look what hourly did, just trying to help show how i see/saw the move (and you will see when i post my next trade that i entered about then).

good luck and keep up the good work of understanding what is here.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #58,337
  • Apr 9, 2019 1:33am Apr 9, 2019 1:33am
Quoting Jupiter
My answers and comments are on my journal. I won't post here anymore. To me this thread is suspended/freezed UNTIL fti sure return. Have a good day on the Market.
My Brexiting STOP on TAF

Thank you for your kind invitation. The same to you, Dear Jupiter

My Brexiting STOP on TAF
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,338
  • Apr 9, 2019 2:18am Apr 9, 2019 2:18am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi antmindset it (E/U) actually suggested its turn/bottom 6 days ago, then had a final stop run, look at the charts my friend and may you see it, start at daily 6 full days back then look what hourly did, just trying to help show how i see/saw the move (and you will see when i post my next trade that i entered about then). good luck and keep up the good work of understanding what is here. regards Phil.
d1 HH interesting and bottoming action too

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,339
  • Apr 9, 2019 9:30am Apr 9, 2019 9:30am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi antmindset it (E/U) actually suggested its turn/bottom 6 days ago, then had a final stop run, look at the charts my friend and may you see it, start at daily 6 full days back then look what hourly did, just trying to help show how i see/saw the move (and you will see when i post my next trade that i entered about then). good luck and keep up the good work of understanding what is here. regards Phil.
thanks Phil. i see it now.
  • #58,340
  • Edited 9:48am Apr 9, 2019 9:35am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting antmindset
Dolr seems weak. Eurozone seems leading. cable , yen following. euro/usd bottomed, already reversed? let's see. all kingdom aligned. my bias is usd weak. scout in.
Hi antminset,

Im in agreement with Phil's and alex's words. lots of PA signals of the change in trend. Ive posted a detailed explanation of my view of how it unfolded on my journal. I have been studying the books on technical analysis fti mentioned in this thread and Im finding them invaluable (patterns/PA, trend lines, s/r, etc) in reading the "flow" (jupiter has great book recommendations in his thread as well). It's also giving me a deeper understanding of fti's words and teachings as he was a technical analyst himself and read these books in his research process. Just my suggestion on what's been helping me understand fti's MO.

disclaimer: TA isnt the end all be all...patterns, trendlines, s/r fail/mutate often but is good to establish the "feel the trend aspect". Used in conjuction with 3k-7k, study of sigma and vega, it is useful. keep in mind these are my realizations and I am still learning so...maybe take it as that. just thought Id share here because many here have shared their knowledge with me freely.
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