{quote} That is reason people thinks i'm adorable. My speak is sexy. You never knows Im telling but sounds mysterious and deep
Take what you can, give nothing back
- #261
- Apr 4, 2019 1:01pm Apr 4, 2019 1:01pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Trader | 4,735 Posts
- #262
- Apr 4, 2019 1:01pm Apr 4, 2019 1:01pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
{quote} Scary thing is I am starting to understand it.
Try don't lose pants never...
- #264
- Apr 4, 2019 3:33pm Apr 4, 2019 3:33pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
{quote} hello...i am a beginner...and i want to grow up with my trading strategies. may you show me how to use the filters please. thanks in advance.
Welcome to the boat
Try don't lose pants never...
- #265
- Apr 4, 2019 7:07pm Apr 4, 2019 7:07pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2015 | 1,380 Posts
When you are successful perhaps give a thought to others ... Kiva dot org
- #266
- Edited 10:21pm Apr 4, 2019 7:25pm | Edited 10:21pm
- Joined May 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,438 Posts
- #267
- Apr 4, 2019 7:26pm Apr 4, 2019 7:26pm
- Joined May 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,438 Posts
Question ... @Brain, your calculations for the formula are based on Calendar days, e.g. 6 weeks x 7 days = 42 but FX is only a 5 day week, so using 7 instead of 5 will depreciate/appreciate the calculations by 28.6% or am I on the wrong track?
- #268
- Apr 5, 2019 12:26am Apr 5, 2019 12:26am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
Try don't lose pants never...
- #269
- Apr 5, 2019 12:28am Apr 5, 2019 12:28am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
I got bored. {image}
Try don't lose pants never...
- #270
- Edited 2:27am Apr 5, 2019 12:39am | Edited 2:27am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
Try don't lose pants never...
- #271
- Edited 2:26am Apr 6, 2019 2:09am | Edited 2:26am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
Try don't lose pants never...
- #272
- Edited 8:22am Apr 6, 2019 5:18am | Edited 8:22am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
First we have understand what we want take really. If we use only max DD ( top ) then we only will know max length movement. But this value itself don't contains any information about how was the movement.
As price moves as waves we need get how were that waves movements along trade life. And we need do it enough simpler for pack all that info in a simple formula. Then we will get an approximation enough valid for can work.
We need first some samples of trades for get this information. Then we will split trades as 2 areas:
1) Profit area ( mainly closed trades )
2) Loss area ( opened trades )
Now we will need take a few samples. For do it easier we will take only 3 trades along 3 strategic areas. All sample trades should be older possible around areas
1) Top ( trade with max DD )
2 ) Middle ( trade closer to half max DD )
3 ) Quarter ( trade closer to 1/4 of max DD )
The candidates:
1) GA ( -650p )
2) GU ( -266p )
3) UH ( -146p )
How trades looks in chart
We will continue in next post...
As price moves as waves we need get how were that waves movements along trade life. And we need do it enough simpler for pack all that info in a simple formula. Then we will get an approximation enough valid for can work.
We need first some samples of trades for get this information. Then we will split trades as 2 areas:
1) Profit area ( mainly closed trades )
2) Loss area ( opened trades )
Now we will need take a few samples. For do it easier we will take only 3 trades along 3 strategic areas. All sample trades should be older possible around areas
1) Top ( trade with max DD )
2 ) Middle ( trade closer to half max DD )
3 ) Quarter ( trade closer to 1/4 of max DD )
The candidates:
1) GA ( -650p )
2) GU ( -266p )
3) UH ( -146p )
How trades looks in chart
We will continue in next post...
Try don't lose pants never...
- #273
- Apr 6, 2019 8:25am Apr 6, 2019 8:25am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
Try don't lose pants never...
- #274
- Apr 6, 2019 12:00pm Apr 6, 2019 12:00pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
Now we will search waves top/bottoms. This is sometimes subjective as it happens in UH capture ( its a breakout following for big retracement ).
TF to search waves is always higher possible. We need at least 2 waves for make calculations but 3 should be recommended. We will count pips of every top/bottom from trade open.
As time edge we have 2 way to calculate pips edge:
1) Precision. Apply formula per pair
2) Fast. Take trades as explained in previous post ( 3 levels per area )
Formula for get trade pivot ( pips edge ) is:
1) We take avg of every reference trade top/bottoms. This will set edge area
GA: ( 560+178+650+144+512+85 ) / 6 = 354p
GU: ( -20+254+40+254 ) / 4 = 132p
UH: ( -10+144+68+133+33+82 ) / 6 = 75p
2) We take calculated pivots in step 1 and we get their weighted average. Top level have more weight than middle and 1/4 level.
( ( 354*3 ) + ( 132*2 ) + 75 ) / 3 = 233p
And 233p will be the edge in all trades. As many people will agree, this limit will be high in low volatility trades but as is a low precision formula then we have take a balance between all pairs used
The recommended for optimize closes is precision way. Formula is same but how is applied is different. It will need a tool for do it then it will be explained in future posts after finish base explanation
TF to search waves is always higher possible. We need at least 2 waves for make calculations but 3 should be recommended. We will count pips of every top/bottom from trade open.
As time edge we have 2 way to calculate pips edge:
1) Precision. Apply formula per pair
2) Fast. Take trades as explained in previous post ( 3 levels per area )
Formula for get trade pivot ( pips edge ) is:
1) We take avg of every reference trade top/bottoms. This will set edge area
GA: ( 560+178+650+144+512+85 ) / 6 = 354p
GU: ( -20+254+40+254 ) / 4 = 132p
UH: ( -10+144+68+133+33+82 ) / 6 = 75p
2) We take calculated pivots in step 1 and we get their weighted average. Top level have more weight than middle and 1/4 level.
( ( 354*3 ) + ( 132*2 ) + 75 ) / 3 = 233p
And 233p will be the edge in all trades. As many people will agree, this limit will be high in low volatility trades but as is a low precision formula then we have take a balance between all pairs used
The recommended for optimize closes is precision way. Formula is same but how is applied is different. It will need a tool for do it then it will be explained in future posts after finish base explanation
Try don't lose pants never...
- #275
- Apr 6, 2019 12:34pm Apr 6, 2019 12:34pm
- Joined May 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,438 Posts
Now we will search waves top/bottoms. This is sometimes subjective as it happens in UH capture ( its a breakout following for big retracement ). TF to search waves is always higher possible. We need at least 2 waves for make calculations but 3 should be recommended. We will count pips of every top/bottom from trade open. As time edge we have 2 way to calculate pips edge: 1) Precision. Apply formula per pair 2) Fast. Take trades as explained in previous post ( 3 levels per area ) Formula for get trade pivot ( pips edge ) is: 1) We take avg of every...
- #276
- Apr 6, 2019 12:45pm Apr 6, 2019 12:45pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
{quote} Very interesting...
Try don't lose pants never...
- #277
- Apr 6, 2019 12:56pm Apr 6, 2019 12:56pm
- Joined May 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,438 Posts
{quote} As you can see edge is not big comparing with max DD. And when you check avg DD per trade, edge is above then a big percentage of trades will be recovered
You are going way beyond just a general theory when you start introducing mathematical calculations and algorithms.
- #278
- Apr 6, 2019 1:39pm Apr 6, 2019 1:39pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
{quote} You better copyright this stuff before somebody bundles it up and tries to sell it.
Try don't lose pants never...
- #280
- Apr 7, 2019 8:10am Apr 7, 2019 8:10am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Coder | 8,521 Posts
Very nice thread. Your trade selection method looks very good. High win% Looking at your past closed trades, it looks like your trading method is a little similar to mine (mean revision to some extent). In my back-testing prior to going live this past September, I had several trades that ran off 1,000 or more pip losses. One of my backtest trades showed a whopping 8,000 pip loss back in 2007 I believe. (That is why I implemented a somewhat loose stop loss that doesn't whipsaw me but tries to avoid disasters like that one) Have you back-tested your...
With non recoverable exits you reduce losses in very bad trades. But as I will explain in last rule ( retracement ) it depends trade moment. Is not same close a bad trade is at range that one started a breakout after be some time in range
Basically I dont expect any close 2x bigger than pips edge explained in previous post. That as worst case
Try don't lose pants never...