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Plan the Trade

  • #11,761
  • Apr 5, 2019 12:39pm Apr 5, 2019 12:39pm
Quoting Divergence
the last 123 i took also but when price takes out point 3 i move target up to +1
I am ashamed to say that this is also pretty clear!!

On trade 4, once the point 3 was taken out by that “pin bar” looking, then you moved your TP to +1, kind of trying if possible to “recover” the trade and avoid the full loss if the price was playing game and coming back, which it did.

That and the +25T set up you posted today, it is pretty impressive trading I have to say.

Thanks again, and have a good week end.
Cheers,
J-F
Attached Image
  • #11,762
  • Apr 5, 2019 12:44pm Apr 5, 2019 12:44pm
Quoting j-f
{quote} i am ashamed to say that this is also pretty clear!! On trade 4, once the point 3 was taken out by that “pin bar” looking, then you moved your tp to +1, kind of trying if possible to “recover” the trade and avoid the full loss if the price was playing game and coming back, which it did. That and the +25t set up you posted today, it is pretty impressive trading i have to say. Thanks again, and have a good week end. Cheers, j-f {image}
its all about identifying the pattern action then once in trade the price and pattern action
  • #11,763
  • Apr 5, 2019 12:45pm Apr 5, 2019 12:45pm
Quoting J-f
{quote} I am so stupid, you told me exactly the same a couple of days back, and I had worked on it from yours and Erasmus’ charts. And I do the same thing again. Pathetic. Anyway, step by step hopefully forward. Once more thanks a lot Divergence for your time and help. Thus on Trade 1, point 2 and 3 “seem” OK, but the big bar forming the point 1 is never over taken to form point 2, and thus it is not a 123s. {image}
correct in time you will identify the pattern and then profits will come with consistantcy
  • #11,764
  • Apr 5, 2019 2:38pm Apr 5, 2019 2:38pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} So far today -1.5 points and currently in second trade of the day long at 2892, with a profit target at 2896.
As I discussed on the blog last night, I decided today to switch to +4 point profit target and let the actual risk stop run for the duration of the trade. It took almost three hours and price came within one tick of the stop, but finally had the 4 point profit target filled. So -1.5 and +4 for the day, for a +2.5 net.

I'll go over today's price action in a blog post tonight.

Here is screen grab I took while the trade was still open with price jus one tick or so away from profit. The target was filled a minute or two later. Patience was rewarded today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: patience.JPG Size: 234 KB
  • #11,765
  • Apr 5, 2019 3:04pm Apr 5, 2019 3:04pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} As I discussed on the blog last night, I decided today to switch to +4 point profit target and let the actual risk stop run for the duration of the trade. It took almost three hours and price came within one tick of the stop, but finally had the 4 point profit target filled. So -1.5 and +4 for the day, for a +2.5 net. I'll go over today's price action in a blog post tonight. Here is screen grab I took while the trade was still open with price jus one tick or so away from profit. The target was filled a minute or two later. Patience was rewarded...
3 hours man thats patience after 1 minute i lose focus lol
  • #11,766
  • Apr 5, 2019 3:29pm Apr 5, 2019 3:29pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} 3 hours man thats patience after 1 minute i lose focus lol
You need extreme focus to do what you do, and most of us can probably only maintain it for a short while. Trading like this, on the other hand, especially with the set it and forget it stop loss and profit target is the opposite. I actually left for an appointment, and then picked up my son at school all the while this thing was meandering along. I got home and was surprised it was still open. I figured for sure it either had taken a profit or stopped for a loss.
  • #11,767
  • Apr 5, 2019 3:37pm Apr 5, 2019 3:37pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} You need extreme focus to do what you do, and most of us can probably only maintain it for a short while. Trading like this, on the other hand, especially with the set it and forget it stop loss and profit target is the opposite. I actually left for an appointment, and then picked up my son at school all the while this thing was meandering along. I got home and was surprised it was still open. I figured for sure it either had taken a profit or stopped for a loss.
i would never leave a trade on without me being there what if it gap past stop and went into deep negative position just saying
  • #11,768
  • Apr 5, 2019 3:47pm Apr 5, 2019 3:47pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} i would never leave a trade on without me being there what if it gap past stop and went into deep negative position just saying
Stop market not stop limit. And slippage on ES very rare unlike the NQ
  • #11,769
  • Apr 5, 2019 5:29pm Apr 5, 2019 5:29pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Stop market not stop limit. And slippage on ES very rare unlike the NQ
This is only partially true. If there is a liquidity gap and your Stop Market order does not find a match after few attempts, your order will need to be resubmitted, manually. These events are rare, but do occur.
  • #11,770
  • Apr 5, 2019 6:22pm Apr 5, 2019 6:22pm
Quoting Nik-Nyc
{quote} This is only partially true. If there is a liquidity gap and your Stop Market order does not find a match after few attempts, your order will need to be resubmitted, manually. These events are rare, but do occur.
I traded the ES for the first time in 1998. Not once has a stop not been filled. Except for a very few instances where I was trading large positions, I have had almost no adverse slippage. Right now I am trading piker size. I doubt I’d have a problem with a liquidity gap during RTH on the ES.
  • #11,771
  • Apr 5, 2019 7:51pm Apr 5, 2019 7:51pm
Blog update will be sometime over the weekend ... probably tomorrow afternoon or evening.

https://ddaytrader.com/
  • #11,772
  • Apr 5, 2019 8:02pm Apr 5, 2019 8:02pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} I traded the ES for the first time in 1998. Not once has a stop not been filled. Except for a very few instances where I was trading large positions, I have had almost no adverse slippage. Right now I am trading piker size. I doubt I’d have a problem with a liquidity gap during RTH on the ES.
DD,

I just wanted to point out that illiquidity events do occur, not often, but often enough to consider how to potentially mitigate the risk. If your Stop market order is not matched, eventually isn't resubmitted, and then the market runs 100/200/300 ticks against you, that will cause some pain. Potentially lots of pain. On the bright side, this could also occur in your favor, then again, most TP's are limit orders so this will not apply.
  • #11,773
  • Apr 5, 2019 8:23pm Apr 5, 2019 8:23pm
Quoting Nik-Nyc
{quote} This is only partially true. If there is a liquidity gap and your Stop Market order does not find a match after few attempts, your order will need to be resubmitted, manually. These events are rare, but do occur.
Hmm... So there is no way to 100% gaurantee stop loss execution in futures either by broker or via algo? I have no regard for slippage but no stop execution at next available price is an incredible risk we would take in market...a risk that would personally be unacceptable to me beyond a few contracts.
Staying in my lane...
  • #11,774
  • Apr 5, 2019 8:28pm Apr 5, 2019 8:28pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Hmm... So there is no way to 100% gaurantee stop loss execution in futures either by broker or via algo? I have no regard for slippage but no stop execution at next available price is an incredible risk we would take in market...a risk that would personally be unacceptable to me beyond a few contracts.
but if you are at computer all you need to do is click flatten
  • #11,775
  • Apr 5, 2019 8:32pm Apr 5, 2019 8:32pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Hmm... So there is no way to 100% gaurantee stop loss execution in futures either by broker or via algo? I have no regard for slippage but no stop execution at next available price is an incredible risk we would take in market...a risk that would personally be unacceptable to me beyond a few contracts.
V,

You need to be enjoying your vacation, not worrying about liquidity gaps. Go get a cocktail with an umbrella in it.

When you get back i'll share a few algo functions that can help mitigate the risks. These are what some of big boys use.

Then again, as harold mentions, if you are at your computer, you can resubmit you exit order(flatten) until it finally gets filled.
  • #11,776
  • Apr 5, 2019 8:58pm Apr 5, 2019 8:58pm
Quoting Nik-Nyc
{quote} V, You need to be enjoying your vacation, not worrying about liquidity gaps. Go get a cocktail with an umbrella in it. When you get back i'll share a few algo functions that can help mitigate the risks. These are what some of big boys use. Then again, as harold mentions, if you are at your computer, you can resubmit you exit order(flatten) until it finally gets filled.
Lol. I could use a bucket of antidepressants today to get me off this ship. Tonight was formal Gala night and ...well, I respect seniors too much to talk shit about them so let's leave it at that.

I will sort this out myself man. I was just curious why the need for manual submission. My design always factors in a decent slippage so not a huge concern
Staying in my lane...
  • #11,777
  • Edited 7:30am Apr 6, 2019 5:06am | Edited 7:30am
Quoting Nik-Nyc
{quote} DD, I just wanted to point out that illiquidity events do occur, not often, but often enough to consider how to potentially mitigate the risk.
Can you date and time the last time such an event occurred on the ES during RTH hours where a CFTC broker let their customers orders get cancelled by the exchange without fills? I have never seen it. I have seen gaps between sessions. I have seen big slippage during news events, both scheduled and surprise. But you’d have to show me data that shows what you claim to be a risk has happened on the ES during RTH. During Globex? Absolutely. I have seen that often enough (though to my knowledge, I've not heard of orders being cancelled unfilled by the exchange).

But we are day trading NYC hours here. The chance of what you are talking about happening is so remote that as to be nearly impossible. I’ll never say something can’t happen. But you’re saying something that I’ve never seen happen happens with enough frequency to be worried about it wiping out your account.

If what you are saying is true, then the date supporting it is available somewhere. I’d request you post a link to it here. Again, we are talking ES, RTH, orders getting cancelled due to illiquidity. Not slippage. I get that slippage can and does happen - especially the NQ and YM. But please share date concerning these liquidity events you are talking about.
  • #11,778
  • Apr 6, 2019 9:00am Apr 6, 2019 9:00am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Can you date and time the last time such an event occurred on the ES during RTH hours where a CFTC broker let their customers orders get cancelled by the exchange without fills? I have never seen it. I have seen gaps between sessions. I have seen big slippage during news events, both scheduled and surprise. But you’d have to show me data that shows what you claim to be a risk has happened on the ES during RTH. During Globex? Absolutely. I have seen that often enough (though to my knowledge, I've not heard of orders being cancelled unfilled...
DD,

I added dates to the bottom of this post, however, its important to understand that a black/grey swan type event is not required for a Stop Market order to not be "respected".

If you really want to understand the risk i described, these are much better questions to ask:

1) Ask your platform provider (ninja, sierra, etc) what happens to a Stop Market order if the CME rejects the order(order rejection is the crux of illiquidity)? Will the platform automatically resubmit the order for you? If so, how many times?

2) Ask your data provider (not your broker) at what offset(in ticks) will an unfilled Stop Market order be cancelled?(This assume you use server side orders)(Before anyone asks, YES, there can be server side orders that are not Limit orders)

3) Ask the CME what conditions could cause an order to be rejected?

I am sure the answers to these questions will surprise you. The good news is many simple solutions exist, the first of which is to not leave trades unattended, so in the unlikely event a Stop Market "fails", you can simply click flatten until you are exited. Easy.


(5-6-2010, 8-24-2015, better exercise is once you have the answer to question 2, look for gaps of that size during RTH)
  • #11,779
  • Apr 6, 2019 2:19pm Apr 6, 2019 2:19pm
Strategy review for Friday APril 5, 2019:

https://ddaytrader.com/2019/04/06/ap...rategy-review/
  • #11,780
  • Apr 6, 2019 2:41pm Apr 6, 2019 2:41pm
Special Post about being realistic

https://ddaytrader.com/2019/04/06/sp...-be-realistic/
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