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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #11,261
  • Apr 4, 2019 10:25am Apr 4, 2019 10:25am
A show in 4 acts.

DAX

The Wrath!
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"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #11,262
  • Apr 4, 2019 11:34am Apr 4, 2019 11:34am
Quoting Rub
{quote}P.s. have another look at the big boss and boss charts for USDCAD. Particularly the highs and lows of the boss recently in relation to where and what the price is doing now. Tell me what you see.
cant believe what i just did. took me about an hour to get all this info typed out and i go and delete the post when all i wanted to do was add two charts that i forgot to attach. now i start again.

hi Rub....so, monthly USDCAD chart has LH's bouncing off resistance. is also forming a triangle/coil. the HL's and LL suggest no real direction but the LH's could be a clue to a move down.
the weekly is in a channel with price being at the lower end of its range.

back to my Basic PASR analysis AGAIN.....

1st green up arrow. BUOB (engulfing) closed above resistance and confluence of resistance and 50MA. buy stop would have been placed 10 pips above high of the BUOB. stop loss 10 pips below support. exit at close of BEOB (engulfing).

next trade, 2nd green down arrow. BEEB closed strongly below support. following bar, inverted hammer tests resistance. buy stop would have been placed below the low of the inverted hammer. stop loss 10 pips above SR. hammer (white up arrow) shows profit taking, BEEB (white down arrow) would have kept me in the trade. exit would have been at following red arrow, big green bar, once it breached its previous bar.

next green up arrow BUOB (engulfing) closed above major, major resistance. entry 10 pips above the high of this bar. stop loss 10 pips below minor support (thin white line) stopped out on red arrow, BEEB.

purple arrow, BUOB (engulfing). 140ish pip stop loss, if it was placed 10 pips below minor support. too much risk for my tolerance, and with PA in the previous 4 bars, would have most likely kept me out.

next green arrow. nice hammer formed on major major support. closed above. buy stop would have been placed 10 pips above high of the hammer. stop loss 10 pips below minor support line. 80ish pips risk. pretty perfect setup. exit would have been at red arrow, big green bar as it approached resistance. if i was being greedy i would have waited till it touched resistance, then i would have ended up closing around the close of the next red bar. (to be greedy or not to be greedy, that is the question).

next green up arrow BUOB (engulfing). would have never taken a trade here. price action bar closed too close to resistance and risk would have been way too high placing a buy stop 10 pips above the high of the BUOB, even though the confluence of support at BRN 1.3000 plus the 2 MA's is strong.

next green down arrow, BEOB (engulfing). close below resistance. again, too much risk placing a buy stop below the low of the bar. if i placed a trade here i would have been stopped out anyway with the following bar.

No Intention of Editing This Post For Whatever Reason.....
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If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,263
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:20pm Apr 4, 2019 1:20pm
I'm not going to attempt to edit the above post again but just wanted to add the word "inverted" up above. I'm sure everyone will know where it's supposed to go. I corrected it on the post I accidentally deleted but missed it when typing this out again.
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,264
  • Apr 5, 2019 1:12am Apr 5, 2019 1:12am
Quoting Alesiosc
{quote} cant believe what i just did. took me about an hour to get all this info typed out and i go and delete the post when all i wanted to do was add two charts that i forgot to attach. now i start again. hi Rub....so, monthly USDCAD chart has LH's bouncing off resistance. is also forming a triangle/coil. the HL's and LL suggest no real direction but the LH's could be a clue to a move down. the weekly is in a channel with price being at the lower end of its range. back to my Basic PASR analysis AGAIN..... 1st green up arrow. BUOB (engulfing) closed...
Ok I've attached a couple of charts showing my what I see on USDCAD, from big boss on down. Short version is I'd want to see a break out one way or another before I'd trade it at the moment. It's got no clear direction.

Final chart is my annotations to your worker chart. I think it should make sense, you've highlighted most of the decent price action candles, I've added an arrow in red and a couple of explanations. Looks like you've got the S/R right too. Let me know if it's not clear enough.
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  • #11,265
  • Apr 5, 2019 1:42am Apr 5, 2019 1:42am
Quoting Rub
{quote} Ok I've attached a couple of charts showing my what I see on USDCAD, from big boss on down. Short version is I'd want to see a break out one way or another before I'd trade it at the moment. It's got no clear direction. Final chart is my annotations to your worker chart. I think it should make sense, you've highlighted most of the decent price action candles, I've added an arrow in red and a couple of explanations. Looks like you've got the S/R right too. Let me know if it's not clear enough. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Rub, thanks so much. You have given me some of my confidence back. Had it knocked recently and really started doubting myself and what I see. I'm not as good as some on here, the way they can translate the charts using the correct terminology and I am no university student either which makes me feel inferior sometimes but you have really boosted my confidence in your analysis of my analysis, if that is even correct English. Been waiting eagerly like a school kid for his exams to be marked. Cheers Rub. Starting my day with a smile.
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,266
  • Apr 5, 2019 1:58am Apr 5, 2019 1:58am
Quoting Alesiosc
{quote} Rub, thanks so much. You have given me some of my confidence back. Had it knocked recently and really started doubting myself and what I see. I'm not as good as some on here, the way they can translate the charts using the correct terminology and I am no university student either which makes me feel inferior sometimes but you have really boosted my confidence in your analysis of my analysis, if that is even correct English. Been waiting eagerly like a school kid for his exams to be marked. Cheers Rub. Starting my day with a smile.
Jesus, don't knock yourself because you didn't go to uni, have you met some of the idiots they're spitting out these days? Don't worry about everyone else, they don't matter. Keep at it and you'll be there eventually.

No worries giving you a helping hand, just remember this is a long term project, get consistent then the rest is scale.
  • #11,267
  • Apr 5, 2019 5:47am Apr 5, 2019 5:47am
Friday thoughts...

WHere do you see best your setups?
M1 or M5
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"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #11,268
  • Apr 5, 2019 2:25pm Apr 5, 2019 2:25pm
dont know if daily bar closing time is still a topic of conversation as i read alot about it in the 1st thread. ive been using FXTM, amongst a few other brokers. for a while now, and just noticed yesterday that it has a 10pm GMT daily candle close for any UK traders that are still looking.

for those going to ask how come it took me this long to notice, well i opened it about a month, or so, ago but only started using it since the beginning of this week.....

hope it helps some.....
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,269
  • Apr 6, 2019 5:00am Apr 6, 2019 5:00am
been studying your chart below BTS......think ive just connected a few dots. not telling yet. i want to find the same thing on a live trade and see whether what i think im seeing works in a similar way. just thought id give you a heads up.
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If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,270
  • Apr 7, 2019 3:12am Apr 7, 2019 3:12am
Quoting Alesiosc
been studying your chart below BTS......think ive just connected a few dots. not telling yet. i want to find the same thing on a live trade and see whether what i think im seeing works in a similar way. just thought id give you a heads up. {image}
Just had a thought Cj.cn. something that has been niggling me for a couple of days now. I think you might be interested in my follow up to this post too. I'll try and find what I'm looking for this week.
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,271
  • Apr 8, 2019 2:46am Apr 8, 2019 2:46am
G'day all!
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"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #11,272
  • Apr 8, 2019 3:22pm Apr 8, 2019 3:22pm
EURCAD caught my eye this morning, but there's not enough room to next support to make it worth taking in my opinion.
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  • #11,273
  • Apr 8, 2019 4:25pm Apr 8, 2019 4:25pm
Quoting Rub
EURCAD caught my eye this morning, but there's not enough room to next support to make it worth taking in my opinion. {image} {image} {image}
Hi Rub. I can see your PA entry on the daily but how are your seeing your Boss and Big Boss alignment in harmony with the daily. It hasn't clicked with me how best to read the Strat Shadow as I haven't f12ed on it yet and I haven't come across enough info in the thread to tell me either. I've gone back to 20 and 50 MA's to look for harmony in the Boss and Big Boss.
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,274
  • Apr 8, 2019 6:56pm Apr 8, 2019 6:56pm
Quoting Rub
EURCAD caught my eye this morning, but there's not enough room to next support to make it worth taking in my opinion. {image} {image} {image}
.......or, is this a "Seeing Beyond The Candles" example.
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,275
  • Apr 9, 2019 12:13am Apr 9, 2019 12:13am
Quoting Alesiosc
{quote} Hi Rub. I can see your PA entry on the daily but how are your seeing your Boss and Big Boss alignment in harmony with the daily. It hasn't clicked with me how best to read the Strat Shadow as I haven't f12ed on it yet and I haven't come across enough info in the thread to tell me either. I've gone back to 20 and 50 MA's to look for harmony in the Boss and Big Boss.
Not seeing beyond the candles, but I see the pair as in a range, big boss had a huge down move, boss is currently in a weekly control candle that was also a bearish engulfing bar, and you've already said you can see the price action on the worker. Could probably get a better risk:reward on a lower time frame chart like the four hour, but I am not going to be home tonight to be see. See the charts for more detail.
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  • #11,276
  • Apr 9, 2019 3:20am Apr 9, 2019 3:20am
small scalp on GOLD
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"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #11,277
  • Apr 9, 2019 7:40am Apr 9, 2019 7:40am
Quoting Alesiosc
been studying your chart below BTS......think ive just connected a few dots. not telling yet. i want to find the same thing on a live trade and see whether what i think im seeing works in a similar way. just thought id give you a heads up. {image}
ok BTS. here goes. found what i was looking for today. had to wait over an hour for it to prove itself, and me. hopefully i got it right. i definitely got the trade right as you can see. it is now my interpretation of what went on before price made its move that i would appreciate your views on.....

so, how to identify the move before it happens. further on from the buyer seller equalibrium before no.1 red arrow, the BB's made there stop run. they seem to do this in the morning mostly on trending pairs. they must have seen lots of long orders up above and filled them all, also taking out the stops of anyone short the market. as the trend prior to the stop run was up it was harder for me to decipher which way next for price. then the consolidation at arrows 2 and 3 was showing the buyers and sellers showing no real bias.. this is now where im a bit confused. dont ask me why but i saw the market as bearish and the only real pA bars telling me anything were IB's plus a few long upper wicks and some indecision doji bars. i entered short at the close below the 200MA no. 4 arrow. gained confidence when i saw the BEEB 3 bars later only to be ready to close and take the loss 2 bars later. i held my nerve and stuck to my plan and lo and behold price did what i think the market was telling me. dont want to blow my own trumpet cos i know Strat will knock me right back off my pedestal but this is what i sw in your chart.

so, in short. there were no real trading decisions being made buy the buer and sellers in the consolidation no2 & 3 arrows then supply out balanced demand and made price move......

sorry about the $ signs on my trades. i forgot to change the settings to pips. the first ones took about 12 pips and the 2nd one reaped about 25 pips. first trade i placed was 1 lot but with my added confidence due to what i was reading from the market i added another 5 lots. 5 lots closed at $7.60. 1 lot closed at $2.60.

hope this all makes sense
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If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,278
  • Apr 9, 2019 7:41am Apr 9, 2019 7:41am
sorry, forgot the arrows....
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If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #11,279
  • Apr 9, 2019 8:19am Apr 9, 2019 8:19am
Quoting flyaway7
Try 60 day ATR, 10 day atr and 3 day Atr bars- the are superb on TOS
hi
are you sure you are in the correct thread?
  • #11,280
  • Apr 9, 2019 10:25am Apr 9, 2019 10:25am
just did a detailed statement for the first time since starting with The Path and trading Strat's method to the best of my ability, even though ive not done it to the T, cut corners here and there, not understood certain things and created some bad habits along the way including coming on board with some of my own bad habits. ive made a total of 37 trades since the 1st of April 2019 till now. at risk of being clobbered by Strat, this is my current equity curve.....
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If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
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