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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #461
  • Apr 4, 2019 12:48pm Apr 4, 2019 12:48pm
I am still long for now, the last wick on H1 made me re-think about the planned short
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  • #462
  • Apr 4, 2019 12:56pm Apr 4, 2019 12:56pm
Just holding on to the gap for good luck.
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I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #463
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:12pm Apr 4, 2019 1:12pm
Quoting aariapoor
No matter what, someone (or team) doesn't want this to go down at all (even for correction) This is not a healthy market move and it's not base on trades. So we can't explain it by technical analysis. For time being I stay away until I close all my positions with break even.
Maybe this weird market behaviour (for WTI) could in some way be linked to the Saudi project to quote Aramco and the recent (first for them) bond emission.
The inventories build up that came out testerday had no effect on price action
  • #464
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:23pm Apr 4, 2019 1:23pm
shorted for a quick scalp on 1 M
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #465
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:26pm Apr 4, 2019 1:26pm
Quoting Ll1979
shorted for a quick scalp on 1 M {image}
Well done, would like to get excited a fall could be coming but the gaps in the 1M may well come back to haunt, D
EDIT
Would like to think my theory was right in previous posts!!!
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #466
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:30pm Apr 4, 2019 1:30pm
Quoting Ll1979
shorted for a quick scalp on 1 M {image}
banked
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #467
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:30pm Apr 4, 2019 1:30pm
Quoting Ll1979
shorted for a quick scalp on 1 M {image}
Actually I wanted to short too base on gut filling, the finger was on the mouse button but last sec I gave up ha ha
Good for you mate
We can't control the sea, but we can learn how to surf the waves.
  • #468
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:35pm Apr 4, 2019 1:35pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Well done, would like to get excited a fall could be coming but the gaps in the 1M may well come back to haunt, D EDIT Would like to think my theory was right in previous posts!!!
Thnx! WTI is to choppy for me right now no clear direction. Although one could play the range between 62.8 and 62.2
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #469
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:39pm Apr 4, 2019 1:39pm
Quoting aariapoor
{quote} Actually I wanted to short too base on gut filling, the finger was on the mouse button but last sec I gave up ha ha Good for you mate
Thnx the trade was needed still 1,5% down for this week
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #470
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:40pm Apr 4, 2019 1:40pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Thnx! WTI is to choppy for me right now no clear direction. Although one could play the range between 62.8 and 62.2 {image}
It's not only about Oil, the market is also so uncertain, check out Gold or GBP for example
We can't control the sea, but we can learn how to surf the waves.
  • #471
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:44pm Apr 4, 2019 1:44pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} banked {image}
May well be hoping you held, good shout, took a position around the same level, going to hold out for $50
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I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #472
  • Apr 4, 2019 2:10pm Apr 4, 2019 2:10pm
Based on what I would like to see here I think aariapoor has a point, I see the bear still ongoing, just a desparate attempt at a market, while technical may align, sentiment never does.
The black line has broken under the blue, in past times it has led the trend direction ( blue still needs to change colour to confirm), buying zones are green but still to turn red, just need selling pressure to emerge, (red bar in the middle), make of it what you will no advice intended, D
Edit
Given what was though it may still not be over, a small battle victory in a bigger war, the masses can change any situation quickly, as can the MM lol, D
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I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #473
  • Apr 4, 2019 2:18pm Apr 4, 2019 2:18pm
WTI MEETS A KEY TECHNICAL THRESHOLD AND SULKS JUST BELOW 63 HANDLE
4 April 2019, 22:04

  1. Following a dip in yesterday's trade, sparked by an unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories, West Texas Intermediate crude remains under pressure on a techncial basis, although fundamentals lean bullish.
  2. WTI is currently trading at $62.21bbls and has travelled in a range of between $61.91bbls and $62.75bbls, spot.

The price of oil is at a crossroads on a techncial basis with momentum indicators leaning bearish while fundamentals continue to support a bullish argument which brings the 70 handle into the picture - at least that futures price action is pointing towards, on track for the fourth gain in the past five sessions and to roughly five-month highs as markets speculate on a positive outcome between Sino/US trade talks taking place in Washington this week, with an anticipated deal and closure to lengthy trade dispute between the two largest conomies in the world

However, an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories with the Energy Information Administration saying that crude inventories rose 7.2 million barrels to 449.5 million barrels in the week ended March 29, leaving them at the five-year average helped to cap prices considering the consensus forecast was for a drop of 100,000 barrels. That, coupled with a bearish technical argument, prices are struggling to get over the line, being the 63 handle ahead of a techncial Fibo target.

WTI levels
Daily stochastics remains overbought and 4HR momentum has extended lower with the price unable to get over the line, being the 63 handle with the 61.8% Fibo as a key target in the 63.70s, meeting Jan 2018 support. Bears could well be inclined to push from here back towards a test of the 200-DMA, and if this does not hold, bulls could well be trapped in a long squeeze to cloud support and the rising wedge's support line. A break of the support line and below $57.80 opens the case for a continuation of the bear trend that would target below the $42 handle and late Dec lows.

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #474
  • Edited 3:11pm Apr 4, 2019 2:33pm | Edited 3:11pm
Quoting Ll1979
WTI MEETS A KEY TECHNICAL THRESHOLD AND SULKS JUST BELOW 63 HANDLE 4 April 2019, 22:04 Following a dip in yesterday's trade, sparked by an unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories, West Texas Intermediate crude remains under pressure on a techncial basis, although fundamentals lean bullish. WTI is currently trading at $62.21bbls and has travelled in a range of between $61.91bbls and $62.75bbls, spot. The price of oil is at a crossroads on a techncial basis with momentum indicators leaning bearish while fundamentals continue to support a bullish...
From a trading point all points lower, think the trade deals were the catalyst, but Trump is against high oil prices, that's if his last "Tweet" was anything to go by, just my thoughts, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #475
  • Apr 4, 2019 4:23pm Apr 4, 2019 4:23pm
The downtrend line was breached, but the median line is moving sideways, leaving no clear direction. Volatile!
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  • #476
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:08pm Apr 4, 2019 5:08pm
Taking the SAR level out would be good progress, the levels all all wayward, think the pundits are baffled by this too, D
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #477
  • Edited 5:49pm Apr 4, 2019 5:36pm | Edited 5:49pm
Quoting valter
{quote} Hello timingchain, could you please share the slope of your trend lines, I tried the +/-36.9 as per Ata thread but seems it is a different gradient from the ones in your chart. many thanks v I believe I have found the mistake I was doing. The copy of the original TL with slope keeps the slope always fixed meanwhile the copy of the TL changes the gradient of the slope when the chart is streched. Sorry Many thanks again v
I don't use a specific slope value. I try slopes that fit some trends well, then stick with them until they don't work well, then try again. They work well on the H4, but don't look good on other time frames.

When the contract changes, I have to slide the lines around to the new anchor points, but last time I did not have to change the actual slope of the lines.
  • #478
  • Apr 5, 2019 9:08am Apr 5, 2019 9:08am
One can only but trade what you see, there may be a glimmer for the bears, but the bull thinking the same way, get out the way I say and give someone else a chance LOL, D
EDIT,
Closed out my mega sell, still holding out of curiosity, and a little luck, D

Stopped out but re-entered, still not convinced the hourly has changed, trend still down,main trend line still yellow, the recent move hasn't moved to blue, anyhow a small punt that could still prove me wrong, just trading what I see as opposed to rumour
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I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #479
  • Apr 5, 2019 12:43pm Apr 5, 2019 12:43pm
UNITED STATES BAKER HUGHES US OIL RIG COUNT: 831 VS 816
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #480
  • Apr 5, 2019 1:54pm Apr 5, 2019 1:54pm
Quoting Ll1979
UNITED STATES BAKER HUGHES US OIL RIG COUNT: 831 VS 816
Think I was just postponing the inevitable, maybe this was what the wait was for but we knew this days ago, it was worth the risk, don't think a huge rise can be sustained, all being built on seems to be in sand, the higher the tower the further to fall,just my opinion, good trading and good weekend all,D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
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