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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #58,221
  • Apr 3, 2019 1:08pm Apr 3, 2019 1:08pm
Quoting rasyoko2008
Is trading easy or hard? if you think it's hard so it's hard, just simple is better, as my trading system.
Oooops… now you are commercial member, again… another one,…do not come to this this thread with your snake oil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #58,222
  • Apr 3, 2019 10:13pm Apr 3, 2019 10:13pm
Quoting rasyoko2008
Is trading easy or hard? if you think it's hard so it's hard, just simple is better, as my trading system.
"Return This Year: 261.7%"

This could be called a good commercial profit. It's indeed simple and easy (on FF).

One of the difference with TAF is that you are only selling but we may be doing either way. Seemingly we don't buy trading systems, we sell/ buy different Fx market instruments. And yes, to me it's hard. I like to be rewarded for my efforts though. One may call it a sort of masochism.
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,223
  • Apr 3, 2019 10:19pm Apr 3, 2019 10:19pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Differnt strokes for different folks ... you describe 2 completely different games https://youtu.be/Uimfx7oURQM
I described a simple math arithmetic equality. So, a retailer could be capitalized for his/ her game.

And games are (=) games. That's right indeed.

Bankers, businessmen may once go bankrupt, due to different reasons in their games.
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,224
  • Apr 3, 2019 10:43pm Apr 3, 2019 10:43pm
Thank you, Exnav.
  • #58,225
  • Apr 3, 2019 11:47pm Apr 3, 2019 11:47pm
Quoting antmindset
Thank you, Exnav.
Hello Ant,

You are more than welcome.

It is not me, it is FTI - great man. I am learning through my sweat and blood: since we are not the guys who dictate and run the flow/ rules, we (players in their game but not exactly knowing their rules, intention) may only adapt and react accordingly and nimbly, always watching the Size. It's my personal/ subjective understanding and focus. For those who know the rules it's much easier. I might know just a little.

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,226
  • Apr 4, 2019 10:19am Apr 4, 2019 10:19am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} "Return This Year: 261.7%" This could be called a good commercial profit. It's indeed simple and easy (on FF). One of the difference with TAF is that you are only selling but we may be doing either way. Seemingly we don't buy trading systems, we sell/ buy different Fx market instruments. And yes, to me it's hard. I like to be rewarded for my efforts though. One may call it a sort of masochism.
OMG

What a brilliant piece of parallels you drew, yet it what we do (buy and sell) not just buy.
it may even take another light years for me to think in such a creative way.

god bless.
  • #58,227
  • Edited 6:59pm Apr 4, 2019 6:45pm | Edited 6:59pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} (My take) .. Depends on your cap... they will do it definitely if its worth doing. I wouldn’t call it manipulation just good business. To fill big orders requires liquidity. often the obvious place for a stop loss is in line with 95% of others on the same side of the trade. So maybe an individual position is not worth hunting but because it is in a horde of many others that share the same view it becomes a profitable transaction to first buy into it then sell the outcome (in the case of a “Buy” stop hunt). Sellers need buyers; a banker recieves...
And isn't that how you read for stop hunts and is part of a facet of pulsing the market?

So since you mentioned usually there is a cluster of stops around for mm to hunt, won't those areas be good to profile for sharks? So effectively won't you be using someone else's stops to feel the markets?

And yes on adapting, when you get to that size, you have to adapt. But there are more ways to adapt, some are hinted to in this thread, but I doubt many saw it, seeing the push back I got. Well let's just say, if you expect it to be delivered on a nice platter to you you will never see it.
  • #58,228
  • Apr 4, 2019 8:14pm Apr 4, 2019 8:14pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} And isn't that how you read for stop hunts and is part of a facet of pulsing the market? So since you mentioned usually there is a cluster of stops around for mm to hunt, won't those areas be good to profile for sharks? So effectively won't you be using someone else's stops to feel the markets? And yes on adapting, when you get to that size, you have to adapt. But there are more ways to adapt, some are hinted to in this thread, but I doubt many saw it, seeing the push back I got. Well let's just say, if you expect it to be delivered on a...
Whatever is working for you is generally the go

a peach is what a pear is to a plum to a grape


Inserted Video
Time hides Nothing
  • #58,229
  • Edited 10:20pm Apr 4, 2019 10:07pm | Edited 10:20pm
Quoting pannet1
{quote} OMG What a brilliant piece of parallels you drew, yet it what we do (buy and sell) not just buy. it may even take another light years for me to think in such a creative way. god bless.
Hello Pannet,

Everything is withing this Fti's thread written by simple and humble but generous ladies and gentlemen.
One more secret to reveal: we don't live the light years, we live in Tics, Secs, Mins, Hours. I never look farther than Daily with exception for Dinosaur era levels.

Hope you sweat well with your Oily Lady.
Exnav

P.S. It's worth studying history but can we see years ahead?
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,230
  • Edited 11:01pm Apr 4, 2019 10:17pm | Edited 11:01pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} But there are more ways to adapt, some are hinted to in this thread, but I doubt many saw it, seeing the push back I got.
Hello CookieMonsta,

It's constructively good and privilege to get and read critique. Classics versus reformers and improvisers, hard proven but never rigid basics versus experiments, know-how versus I never know. Isaac Newton, Charles Darwin and Albert Einstein.
I almost always concur with your points and indeed highly appreciate your trader's development.

Best regards,
Exnav

P.S. Why the word almost - because I don't express in no-land-for-me areas when I simply don't know the matter, so I should remain neutral & impartial
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,231
  • Apr 4, 2019 11:06pm Apr 4, 2019 11:06pm
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Pannet, Everything is withing this Fti's thread written by simple and humble but generous ladies and gentlemen. One more secret to reveal: we don't live the light years, we live in Tics, Secs, Mins, Hours. I never look farther than Daily with exception for Dinosaur era levels. Hope you sweat well with your Oily Lady. Exnav P.S. It's worth studying history but can we see years ahead?
it seems you have etched the NOW in your soul. learnt a lot Exnav from your words. thanks.
  • #58,232
  • Edited 1:16am Apr 5, 2019 1:05am | Edited 1:16am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, It's constructively good and privilege to get and read critique. Classics versus reformers and improvisers, hard proven but never rigid basics versus experiments, know-how versus I never know. Isaac Newton, Charles Darwin and Albert Einstein. I almost always concur with your points and indeed highly appreciate your trader's development. Best regards, Exnav P.S. Why the word almost - because I don't express in no-land-for-me areas when I simply don't know the matter, so I should remain neutral & impartial
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...51#post1894851

There are more ways to effect the portfolio volatility using ro3k.
  • #58,233
  • Apr 5, 2019 2:22am Apr 5, 2019 2:22am
one of fti's fav song sung and performed by his old and dear friend...



Inserted Video
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #58,234
  • Apr 5, 2019 2:28am Apr 5, 2019 2:28am
and because it is friday... just reminiscing

this one we listened when we were managing a running battle, i remember... and we were in deep hole, all rescues were mistimed and all bleeding

Inserted Video



another fti's fav music to be in the background when dancing
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #58,235
  • Apr 5, 2019 4:38am Apr 5, 2019 4:38am
After 3 months of Demo Trade, when i am referring back what FTI said ( in First 200 pages), it is like ahh ha moment.
FTI is true teacher, and made the tread lazy proof, and gave it all in style.

One more secret
  • #58,236
  • Apr 5, 2019 4:45am Apr 5, 2019 4:45am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Cindy, Thank you for the point has drawn my attention. However, if only the CAP is considered, there is still a concept of an ant work. The Ant alone (uncapitalized retailer) is unable to raise the size of a bull or bear load (banker). Should the Ant try, will quickly die from the overwork or, the least, it will cause a spine crack... Otherwise, a simple math would make the CAP equal. E.g., the Banker's cash 500M and scout 100K, the Ant's cash 500 (almost everyone can afford this size) and scout 0.1 USD. Then, how long would take to...
I remember when FTI said size is relative.

Ant - $500
Retail : $5000
Pro : $100K
Dealer Limit : $50M
Bank : $500M
CB: $Billions
Coordinated intervention : $$$$$

Size is just relative.....but he said $10K is too tight. So anything $10K + is good. Sky is the limit.
  • #58,237
  • Edited 7:27am Apr 5, 2019 7:14am | Edited 7:27am
Quoting antmindset
{quote} I remember when FTI ... said $10K is too tight. So anything $10K + is good. Sky is the limit.
OK. You got 10K. What would be then a single scout size and that of full attack for an Ant? (Not for Fti or Dongsky, for you).

While counting please pay attention that in no scripts did Fti advocate using of leverage. He mentioned not more than 1:10, 1:7, 1:2 or better not at all.
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,238
  • Edited 11:48pm Apr 5, 2019 11:37pm | Edited 11:48pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...51#post1894851 There are more ways to effect the portfolio volatility using ro3k.
Dear Friend,

Thank you for the reference I have read several times.

My personal emphasis is on this - everyone is right as soon as he/ she is afloat and in green.

And on this of your referred Fti's post "To be able to dance this , you must master the ability to dance single girl first."

Have a nice week-end.
Exnav

P.S. Yesterday a Doctor said to me that emptiness is/ must be always filled.
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,239
  • Apr 6, 2019 4:01am Apr 6, 2019 4:01am
FTIans,

my capital is 40k, the crude oil futures instrument i intend to trade requires a margin of 4k, for 1 lot

1) my rescue sequence is 1,3,8 (=12)
2) my base size is 3 so total troops needed for a full rescue sequence lot size is = 36 (3x12).
3) i assume that there will be temptation to use the leverage in the event of dancing till death.
4) also there will be a margin benefit if rescue contains a reverse like in 1,3,-8

master says no one can recommend a lot size or sequence for others.
but generals, can you please provide your insights on any of the points mentioned above

i remain thankful.
  • #58,240
  • Edited 1:16pm Apr 6, 2019 6:33am | Edited 1:16pm
Quoting pannet1
FTIans, my capital is 40k, the crude oil futures instrument i intend to trade requires a margin of 4k, for 1 lot 1) my rescue sequence is 1,3,8 (=12) 2) my base size is 3 so total troops needed for a full rescue sequence lot size is = 36 (3x12). 3) i assume that there will be temptation to use the leverage in the event of dancing till death. 4) also there will be a margin benefit if rescue contains a reverse like in 1,3,-8 master says no one can recommend a lot size or sequence for others. but generals, can you please provide your insights on any...
Hello Dear Pannet,

Fti followers could write another thread or book in order to give a comprehensive response.

First of all, I am not a general nor familiar with your Oil Lady. These and following are essential restrictions.
Second, you are willing to get a short cut but actually you are one who must reply to the questions you posed.
Third, we must agree with Fti saying that no one can recommend a lot size or sequence.

Nevertheless, I will try. And these will merely be assumptions.
Yours sizes might correspond to your pocket, ambitions and risk. As I see you are focusing on rescue. Thus, you are committed to the rescue and cannot just flip (change direction or cut a minor light force). When you are supposed to attempt the rescue? You read the chart, send a scout, feel a pulse. And what happened?
Price goes in unfavorable/ opposite direction. How far away, why (to likely definitely change the trend or just make a stop-hunt, spring, upthrust)? How strong is the opposite force, volatility, leg length? Where then do you expect friendly forces to come? They might come for what reasons - for attack or make a break-even (their book safety, last resort retracement-spike)?

E.g., Analytic says the price should retrace SHORT to support zone 1.2950 -1.3050 (previous supports, basing point before price had run up North/ the buyers zone, they need fuel). OK, you are patiently waiting and see PA at the level 1.3030 - 1.3040 fitting to analytic and you deploy a scout Long (preparing for an attack). Good, at 1.3051 1.3052 you deployed your attack force. But PA reversed and continued South Short. What then You do and how?

As it has always been stressed by our friends here - don't be rigid (1), be nimble and keep focus, objectivity (no fear, no greed, revenge (2)), look for opportunities and watch your size (3).
In rescue: just to make your BE, where you patiently wait to deploy an adequate size (neither too big nor too small, but quick and sufficient)? Do you wait for PA signal in your favour? Don't you deploy any soldier blindly due to analytic's price level? How far a push back may proceed and how many soldiers would make the BE feasible there?

And finally, reiterating the points of the restrictions above, my knowledge and experience would rather not be advisable. It might be criticized in its substance. And the critique is highly welcome.
You must have your experience on Your own. Through your learning. I won't attempt to merry your Lady

You are to decide: garbage in, garbage out.

Trade safe,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
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