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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #441
  • Apr 3, 2019 10:41am Apr 3, 2019 10:41am
Hello guys, i think its time to sell Oil for some time now, i quess today bears gets over and will prevail for more than one month.

Currently i have my guns in short WTI and shorts CADJPY as CAD will react to this as downfall. Also UJ is starting for some down swing, so cross CADJPY is interesting to me.
-._.-
  • #442
  • Apr 3, 2019 11:13am Apr 3, 2019 11:13am
Quoting darksize
Hello guys, i think its time to sell Oil for some time now, i quess today bears gets over and will prevail for more than one month. Currently i have my guns in short WTI and shorts CADJPY as CAD will react to this as downfall. Also UJ is starting for some down swing, so cross CADJPY is interesting to me.
Do you have a stop loss level to share for shorting WTI?
thanks
  • #443
  • Apr 3, 2019 11:45am Apr 3, 2019 11:45am
Quoting darksize
Hello guys, i think its time to sell Oil for some time now, i quess today bears gets over and will prevail for more than one month. Currently i have my guns in short WTI and shorts CADJPY as CAD will react to this as downfall. Also UJ is starting for some down swing, so cross CADJPY is interesting to me.
I am actually taking this opportunity to get LONG
  • #444
  • Apr 3, 2019 11:58am Apr 3, 2019 11:58am
I'm looking for some kind of flag like this (red) to close my hedge and sell from here again
BUT this can repeat the same pattern (green but smaller) in this area for one more push up, then I'll sell from there

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 65 KB
We can't control the sea, but we can learn how to surf the waves.
  • #445
  • Apr 3, 2019 12:31pm Apr 3, 2019 12:31pm
Quoting valter
{quote} Do you have a stop loss level to share for shorting WTI? thanks
Of Course, my stop loss is 71,20. I use bigger stop loss for case there are any unpredictable spikes. But i would not go without any stop loss as there is always a possibility of black swan happening. If i ever get feeling that i was wrong with my prediction, i usually close my trade manually. My SL is usually not hit.
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  • #446
  • Apr 3, 2019 2:41pm Apr 3, 2019 2:41pm
Quoting forexfex
valter the price of wti went really quickly to the 2nd weekly pivot and this area is untested on higher time frames from the sell off last year. in otherwords the resistance here seems legit but nothings for sure in this game
I understand
thanks
v
  • #447
  • Apr 3, 2019 2:44pm Apr 3, 2019 2:44pm
Quoting darksize
{quote} Of Course, my stop loss is 71,20. I use bigger stop loss for case there are any unpredictable spikes. But i would not go without any stop loss as there is always a possibility of black swan happening. If i ever get feeling that i was wrong with my prediction, i usually close my trade manually. My SL is usually not hit.
I also use a stop loss for safety reasons but always close trades before it is hit by price action, although not so wide as yours because I trade lower time frames
thanks
v
  • #448
  • Apr 3, 2019 4:12pm Apr 3, 2019 4:12pm
A moderate retrace with some volatility today. Similar to US equities.

For non-MQ traders: if you want to duplicate my Keltner Channel Gradient, you can use multiple KC indis instead of my indi. I use 20 bars for the EMA centerline and for the ATR. Use 1.62, 3.03, 4.28 for the 3 multipliers to get a smoothly increasing gradient away from the centerline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #449
  • Edited 12:05pm Apr 4, 2019 12:41am | Edited 12:05pm
May get near 63.72 too, got limit orders waiting there. Stops aim may be there before the drop.
-._.-
  • #450
  • Apr 4, 2019 1:00am Apr 4, 2019 1:00am
Quoting darksize
May get near 63.72 too, got limit orders waiting there.
Although WTI being overbought there was no clear rejection from the 63 area. Despites the bad inventory numbers WTI still hoovers around current levels. After yesterdays choppy sessions i will watch the sideline for clear directions. Fib 61,8 level might do the trick.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #451
  • Apr 4, 2019 4:35am Apr 4, 2019 4:35am
A new downtrend line (red) added. While the median does not break above that line, the outlook is negative.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wti_h4_20190404.jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #452
  • Apr 4, 2019 8:06am Apr 4, 2019 8:06am
WTI firm, targets 2019 highs near $63.00/bbl
4 April 2019, 14:34

 

  1. Prices of WTI recover ground above the $62.00 mark today.
  2. US crude oil supplies rose on Wednesday, according to EIA.
  3. OPEC+ deal, sanctions keep bolstering the rally in prices.

The upbeat sentiment around crude oil prices remains everything but abated so far today, with the barrel of American benchmark WTI trading at shouting distance from 2019 highs just below the $63.00 mark.

WTI sustained by OPEC, leaves behind EIA build

Prices of the West Texas Intermediate are reversing yesterday’s small pullback and have returned to the area above the key $62.00 mark per barrel, navigating in levels last seen in early November 2018.

Crude oil prices interrupted their rally on Wednesday in response to an unexpected 7.2M barrel build in US crude oil supplies, as reported by the EIA. Yesterday’s increase in crude supplies adds to last week’s build of 2.8M barrels.

However, the buying pressure in crude oil stays intact, with prices advancing in 11 out of the last 15 weeks, or gaining around 48% since late December lows in the $42.20 area.

What to look for around WTI
WTI has recorded fresh multi-month tops just below the $63.00 mark per barrel earlier in the week. The ongoing rally remains well supported by traders’ sentiment in line with an improved mood surrounding the risk-associated complex. In addition, the underlying bullish view in crude oil is expected to persist propped up by the so-called ‘Saudi put’, tight conditions in the US markets (amidst US net imports in historic low levels and the rising activity in refiners ahead of the summer session), the current OPEC+ agreement to cut oil output and ongoing US sanctions against Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil exports. In addition, speculators increased their long exposure in oil during the week ended on March 26, taking net longs to the highest level since late October 2018. Further out, the OPEC+ could announce an extension of the current agreement to curb oil production at the cartel’s meeting in June.

WTI significant levels
At the moment the barrel of WTI is gaining 0.27% at $62.47 and a breakout of $62.79 (2019 high Apr.3) would open the door for $63.74 (61.8% Fibo of the October-December drop) and finally $68.06 (low Oct.29 2018). On the other hand, immediate contention emerges at $61.52 (200-day SMA) followed by $59.15 (21-day SMA) and then $57.91 (low Mar.25).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #453
  • Apr 4, 2019 9:40am Apr 4, 2019 9:40am
Quoting aariapoor
I'm looking for some kind of flag like this (red) to close my hedge and sell from here again BUT this can repeat the same pattern (green but smaller) in this area for one more push up, then I'll sell from there {image}
So far it's doing exactly as expected.
I closed my buy (hedge) with break-even and replaced it with a buy stop (for safety purpose)

Attached Image


Still couldn't find a good confirmation for selling more

We can't control the sea, but we can learn how to surf the waves.
  • #454
  • Edited 10:39am Apr 4, 2019 10:12am | Edited 10:39am
Quoting timingchain
There are 3 indicators on the charts that I have been posting: 1. Keltner Channel 6-band Gradient Indicator: The Keltner Channel Gradient indicator is one I put together, using 6 bands instead of 2. EMA20 is the centerline. Per the Keltner formula, the bands are centered around the centerline with spacing based on................... {image} {file}
Hello timingchain,
could you please share the slope of your trend lines, I tried the +/-36.9 as per Ata thread but seems it is a different gradient from the ones in your chart.
many thanks
v

I believe I have found the mistake I was doing. The copy of the original TL with slope keeps the slope always fixed meanwhile the copy of the TL changes the gradient of the slope when the chart is streched.
Sorry
Many thanks again
v
  • #455
  • Apr 4, 2019 10:48am Apr 4, 2019 10:48am
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #456
  • Apr 4, 2019 11:06am Apr 4, 2019 11:06am
On any other given day the demise would have been swift, no advice intended, 62.645 may well prove the difference, D
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Oil2.png Size: 27 KB
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #457
  • Apr 4, 2019 12:05pm Apr 4, 2019 12:05pm
Quoting darksize
May get near 63.72 too, got limit orders waiting there. Stops aim may be there before the drop.
63.72 confirmed to me by the last H4 candle. Refuse to go lower shows it. I will anyway not close my shorts as i believe we are going down soon, and as you know, anything can happen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WTIH4.png Size: 100 KB
-._.-
  • #458
  • Apr 4, 2019 12:13pm Apr 4, 2019 12:13pm
No matter what, someone (or team) doesn't want this to go down at all (even for correction)
This is not a healthy market move and it's not base on trades.
So we can't explain it by technical analysis.
For time being I stay away until I close all my positions with break even.
We can't control the sea, but we can learn how to surf the waves.
  • #459
  • Apr 4, 2019 12:25pm Apr 4, 2019 12:25pm
Quoting aariapoor
No matter what, someone (or team) doesn't want this to go down at all (even for correction) This is not a healthy market move and it's not base on trades. So we can't explain it by technical analysis. For time being I stay away until I close all my positions with break even.
We can analyse it by price action.
-._.-
  • #460
  • Apr 4, 2019 12:30pm Apr 4, 2019 12:30pm
Quoting aariapoor
No matter what, someone (or team) doesn't want this to go down at all (even for correction) This is not a healthy market move and it's not base on trades. So we can't explain it by technical analysis. For time being I stay away until I close all my positions with break even.
Maybe a bull trap, how else can money be made, oil been very quite in comparison to indexes, the good times for oil traders may well come back but for now the poor pickings have to be made do with, D
EDIT
According to MR "T" oil prices were to high, surely he alone wants to keep the price down.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
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