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The Swamp

  • #32,921
  • Apr 4, 2019 6:39am Apr 4, 2019 6:39am
Quoting xav
{quote} zeroth thing, know which way you'll trade it once it happens... Not trying to be a smartass, just trying to point out that shampoo is top5 ways to fleece retail, especially in eu. The lower the timeframe, the more so. I would imagine a lot of retail are already long with a 1209 stop and/or a 1186 stop. And then we can go break the "neckline".
A lot of market psychology in a pattern. If your trading a HS b4 its formed. Your trading something else, that may later develop to a be HS. Using fibs to form a R shoulder is not HS psychology. It may work this time getting in early. Its just not a HS till it breaks neckline. The height of the R should can be close to the low. Doing an ABCD now of 68% retrace, is not a HS. The target will likely be different.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,922
  • Apr 4, 2019 6:40am Apr 4, 2019 6:40am
Quoting gatorinla
no IHS yet.. {image}
26 ADR so far.. 30 more to go.. US session is coming up, we will see either 1206/1189 or 1250/65....
  • #32,923
  • Apr 4, 2019 6:45am Apr 4, 2019 6:45am
1223 holding it up.. st pa still bearish, 15 min below 2h/8h now.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,924
  • Apr 4, 2019 6:47am Apr 4, 2019 6:47am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} 26 ADR so far.. 30 more to go.. US session is coming up, we will see either 1206/1189 or 1250/65....
1209 and 1145 week close, and larger. Is what i think bears need.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,925
  • Apr 4, 2019 6:52am Apr 4, 2019 6:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A lot of market psychology in a pattern. If your trading a HS b4 its formed. Your trading something else, that may later develop to a be HS. Using fibs to form a R shoulder is not HS psychology. It may work this time getting in early. Its just not a HS till it breaks neckline. The height of the R should can be close to the low. Doing an ABCD now of 68% retrace, is not a HS. The target will likely be different.
Fully agree.
And that's where most traders go broke. Getting away with bad habits only reinforces them.

Additionally, if I see a pattern that, for whatever psychological reasons, fails more often then not (calculated both during the formation of right shoulders and after the breaking of the neckline) I'm inclined to fade it and to boot with an extremely tight stop loss.
  • #32,926
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:02am Apr 4, 2019 7:02am
last h closed below 1223 and the 6h.. 4h is very close.. it closed above 4h.. 1218.7 still untouched
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,927
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:08am Apr 4, 2019 7:08am
Quoting gatorinla
last h closed below 1223 and the 6h.. 4h is very close.. it closed above 4h.. 1218.7 still untouched {image}
I want TP 1206/9 .. not 1218..I have to think about it..

ok.. I am going to let it go lower than 1218..

it hit 1217..
  • #32,928
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:14am Apr 4, 2019 7:14am
possible it will close below 4h.. nothing bullish looking here.. next h is a 4h close. stronger if below 1209..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,929
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:15am Apr 4, 2019 7:15am
Quoting gatorinla
possible it will close below 4h.. nothing bullish looking here.. next h is a 4h close. stronger if below 1209.. {image}
I cash out 1217..+9, a chicken move,, its ok...will short again if it can bounce

now I see some bounce, thank you Gator for 1218 mention
  • #32,930
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:21am Apr 4, 2019 7:21am
old close.. sometimes residual s/r
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,931
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:22am Apr 4, 2019 7:22am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I cash out 1217..+9, a chicken move,, its ok...will short again if it can bounce now I see some bounce, thank you Gator for 1218 mention
it can carry on with the 4h close below 4h pa. more so under 1209 is my guess..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,932
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:25am Apr 4, 2019 7:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it can carry on with the 4h close below 4h pa. more so under 1209 is my guess..
ok.. I am waiting to short again..
  • #32,933
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:29am Apr 4, 2019 7:29am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} ok.. I am waiting to short again..
my st is still bearish.. maybe some weak R 1225.. that 1223 door may slam shut
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,934
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:31am Apr 4, 2019 7:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} my st is still bearish.. maybe some weak R 1225.. that 1223 door may slam shut
gosh.. bounce so shallow...that goes...
  • #32,935
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:35am Apr 4, 2019 7:35am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} gosh.. bounce so shallow...that goes...
The larger trend is down.. A few hours ago was the first time the st went bearish (window to hold short). The bounce was weak, only 60 pips..1254 often turns a trend or should have at least yield 1218.. go back 24 h..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,936
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:39am Apr 4, 2019 7:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The larger trend is down.. A few hours ago was the first time the st went bearish (window to hold short). The bounce was weak, only 60 pips..1254 often turns a trend or should have at least yield 1218
I was waiting it bounces back to 1223 to short again, it only went up 1220.. missed it.. the H1 program we bought TP1 1213 TP2 1196.. TP1 reached..
  • #32,937
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:39am Apr 4, 2019 7:39am
Quoting gatorinla
no shorts for me till I see weakness. with the exception of 1254.. pending 1253. 1h 200 ema at 1250 last h closed above my 4h and 6h, not bearish looking st at all. plus being above week and month. {image}
this one often turns pa.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,938
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:42am Apr 4, 2019 7:42am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I was waiting it bounces back to 1223 to short again, it only went up 1220.. missed it.. the H1 program we bought TP1 1213 TP2 1196.. TP1 reached..
maybe not.. if it closes below 1221.. you may get 1223 again. its not below 1209 atm.. u may get a shot at 1231 again.. a bounce at 1209 has a 1231 mid..

a 1192 bounce has a 1223 mid..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,939
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:47am Apr 4, 2019 7:47am
LOL.. machine can't even trade straight.. how can we as human?

Rage within the machine: Brexit headline blizzard overloads FX algos

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKCN1RG0GN
  • #32,940
  • Apr 4, 2019 7:52am Apr 4, 2019 7:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} where's the bot? it would have made money these last few days..
Don't know.. I don't think the programmer understands the concept..
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