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The Swamp

  • #32,901
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:04am Apr 4, 2019 5:04am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} why not more under 1212?
he thinks a I R shoulder is in the making..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,902
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:05am Apr 4, 2019 5:05am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I am so tired and fell back to sleep.. wait for H1 confirmation to short this...
H1 just reversed to downtrend with stop 1248... I started my short at 1226.... will add..
currently, from M15, H1, H4 , daily, weekly are all in downtrend...
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  • #32,903
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:09am Apr 4, 2019 5:09am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} H1 reversed to downtrend with stop 1248... I started my short at 1226.... will add.. currently, from M15, H1, H4 , daily, weekly are all in downtrend... {image}
what?

I will feel better when/if April closes below 1245..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,904
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:15am Apr 4, 2019 5:15am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} why not more under 1212?

well... Fibo 61.8% retrace from the mini move 1.1183 to 1.1254 and a bounce on 61.8% retrace is a strong signal for a 161.8% extension... if there is no other spoiler coming across....
  • #32,905
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:17am Apr 4, 2019 5:17am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} what? I will feel better when/if April closes below 1245..
you meant March?

a few data points from FXS news

on the downside.
1.1183 (low Apr.2)
1.1176 (low Mar.7)
1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017).

On the upside,
1.1254 (high Apr.1)
  • #32,906
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:27am Apr 4, 2019 5:27am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} you meant March? a few data points from FXS news on the downside. 1.1183 (low Apr.2) 1.1176 (low Mar.7) 1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017). On the upside, 1.1254 (high Apr.1)
march missed.. need April now.. month and Q made a lower close.. added with that new day.. I hope 1145 can be closed below this month. 1231 may act as R.. need 1223/21 close below..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,907
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:28am Apr 4, 2019 5:28am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} well... Fibo 61.8% retrace from the mini move 1.1183 to 1.1254 and a bounce on 61.8% retrace is a strong signal for a 161.8% extension... if there is no other spoiler coming across....
got it... thanks zippo... 50% retrace at 1219, 61.8 at 1211..lets see how US session will do... big sellers are always there during US session.....
  • #32,908
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:39am Apr 4, 2019 5:39am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} got it... thanks zippo... 50% retrace at 1219, 61.8 at 1211..lets see how US session will do... big sellers are always there during US session.....
The 1.1219 has been done already... and you might be right... 1.1212/11 could come during US when they wanted to prove that they can extend the daily trend... I hope tomorrow's payroll data makes the 161.8% move to 1.1326 with some little morning preparation... that would give it a nice balanced shoulder.

But you know the market, all can be history in a blink of an eye
  • #32,909
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:40am Apr 4, 2019 5:40am
Data light in US session but one coming up in 45 mins...it may cause big move to add shorts.. or bulls fight back to reclaim the trend..
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  • #32,910
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:45am Apr 4, 2019 5:45am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} got it... thanks zippo... 50% retrace at 1219, 61.8 at 1211..lets see how US session will do... big sellers are always there during US session.....
missed mine.. needs to go back 1218.7.. then again that 12h below 1231, did hit 1223 after.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,911
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:46am Apr 4, 2019 5:46am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} The 1.1219 has been done already... and you might be right... 1.1212/11 could come during US when they wanted to prove that they can extend the daily trend... I hope tomorrow's payroll data makes the 161.8% move to 1.1326 with some little morning preparation... that would give it a nice balanced shoulder. But you know the market, all can be history in a blink of an eye
I will join the bulls if H1 can close above 1249 at H1 close or PA break out of 1254 R... otherwise, I stay shorts..
  • #32,912
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:49am Apr 4, 2019 5:49am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} well... Fibo 61.8% retrace from the mini move 1.1183 to 1.1254 and a bounce on 61.8% retrace is a strong signal for a 161.8% extension... if there is no other spoiler coming across....
The spoiler is I don't think you calculated the probability of an ihs working out. Or have you?
  • #32,913
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:50am Apr 4, 2019 5:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} missed mine.. needs to go back 1218.7.. then again that 12h below 1231, did hit 1223 after.
I shorted early.. I should have waited for that 1231 retrace..
  • #32,914
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:59am Apr 4, 2019 5:59am
Quoting xav
{quote} The spoiler is I don't think you calculated the probability of an ihs working out. Or have you?
first thing, you have to have a IHS, break neckline.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,915
  • Apr 4, 2019 6:01am Apr 4, 2019 6:01am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I shorted early.. I should have waited for that 1231 retrace..
hopefully it's better now..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,916
  • Apr 4, 2019 6:06am Apr 4, 2019 6:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} hopefully it's better now..
With ECB money accounts coming up, range 1217-1253... wait to see where to break...
  • #32,917
  • Apr 4, 2019 6:07am Apr 4, 2019 6:07am
no IHS yet..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,918
  • Apr 4, 2019 6:14am Apr 4, 2019 6:14am
Quoting gatorinla
no IHS yet.. {image}
no wonder I didn't get what your guys were saying ..IHS= inverted head and shoulders...
  • #32,919
  • Apr 4, 2019 6:14am Apr 4, 2019 6:14am
Quoting gatorinla
no IHS yet.. {image}
yes... that would be a historic price movement
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  • #32,920
  • Apr 4, 2019 6:16am Apr 4, 2019 6:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} first thing, you have to have a IHS, break neckline.
zeroth thing, know which way you'll trade it once it happens...
Not trying to be a smartass, just trying to point out that shampoo is top5 ways to fleece retail, especially in eu. The lower the timeframe, the more so. I would imagine a lot of retail are already long with a 1209 stop and/or a 1186 stop. And then we can go break the "neckline".
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