Elliottwave-Forecast.com - Official Thread w/ Analysis Blogs

Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq (NQ_F) Showing Signs of Rolling Over

Nasdaq (NQ_F) is showing a preliminary sign that the cycle from December 26, 2018 low has ended. After forming the high at 7544.68 on March 22, 2019, the Index has started to turn lower. The first leg of the decline looks impulsive and ended wave (A) at 7290. Then after a bounce in wave (B) to 7447.50, the Index has turned lower and broken below wave (A) again, suggesting further extension lower is likely. If the Index really ended cycle from Dec 26, 2018 low, this means at minimum it should do a larger pullback in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct that cycle.

The entire rally from Dec 26, 2018 low ended at 7544.68. Down from there, the first leg of the decline ended wave (A) at 7290. Internal of wave (A) is unfolding as an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Wave 1 of (A) ended at 7514.5 and wave 2 of (A) ended at 7538.50. Wave 3 of (A) shows an extension and ended at 7294.75, wave 4 of (A) ended at 7325.50, and wave 5 of (A) ended at 7290. Index then bounced within wave (B) as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave A of (B) ended at 7371.50, wave B of (B) ended at 7293.50, and wave C of (B) ended at 7447.50. Wave (C) lower looks to have started as the Index already broke below wave (A) at 7290.
We are counting the wave (C) as an impulse with a nest. As far as the bounce stays below 7544.68, expect the Index to extend lower.

1 Hour Nasdaq (NQ_F) Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

AUDJPY : Catching the Trend Lower
March 25, 2019 By EWF Aidan (Edit)
AUDJPY Short Term Technical Analysis
AUDJPY on March 8/2019 the pair bounced and traded higher. Price started a Higher High/Higher Low sequence and trended higher for the entire trading week of March 11-15/2019. In the chart below the ADX (Average Directional Movement Index) signalled that the move to the upside was losing momentum at the start of the new trading week of March 18/2019. AUDJPY traded lower from the March 18/2019 highs and broke below the previous HL (Higher Low) which signalled the Higher High/Higher Low sequence paused or has possibly stopped. From March 18/2019 price traded sideways in a range until March 21/2019 when a new Lower Low/Lower High sequence started. Traders at this time now needed to expect a possible reversal lower after the pair started to make Lower Lows and Lower Highs. The ADX line finally broke above the 30 level together with price breaking lower out of the range and breaking below another Higher Low level which signalled the trend reversal lower was confirmed.
AUDJPY 1 Hour Chart March 22/2019

The ADX should never be used alone for trade entries but instead be used together with other trading strategies/techniques to get a better view of the market price action at that moment. Using the ADX indicator together with Momentum Price Breakouts can give traders opportunities to enter the market. The AUDJPY chart below shows multiple SELL breakout trade setups to catch the move lower. All SELL entries hit their projected targets. NOTE* Price must respect Moving Average before BUY/SELL breakout entries
AUDJPY 1 Hour Chart March 22/2019

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan
*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***
At Elliottwave-Forecast we cover 78 instruments (Forex, Commodities, Indices, Stocks and ETFs) in 4 different timeframes and we offer 5 Live Session Webinars everyday. We do Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Trade Setup Videos and we have a 24 Chat Room. Our clients are always in the loop for the next market move.
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Elliottwave-Forecast.com Crypto-Currency Webinar
March 28, 2019 By EWFJames (Edit)
5 Crypto-Currency Outlooks from EWF
On Tuesday March 26, 2019 Elliottwave-Forecast.com (EWF) hosted a Free Crypto-Currency Webinar for our Subscribers and the General Public.
In the webinar we discussed a bit about who we are here at EWF as well as what we do covering 78 different financial instruments. We also have a Free Crypto-Currency page. Here we periodically update our Elliott wave forecasts for Ethereum (ETH/USD), Dash (DASH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD), and Litecoin (LTC/USD).
In the webinar we looked at multiple time frame Elliott wave analysis on all 4 of the Crypto Currencies listed above as well as Bitcoin (BTC/USD). After a tumultuous 2018 we think the Crypto world is ripe for the next major move. While we cover BTC/USD every day in our Group 3 services we offer our views on the latest trading opportunities for those other four coins.
Correlation between Bitcoin and the USD
One of the main themes of the webinar includes our correlation analysis between Bitcoin and the US Dollar via DXY. DXY has an incomplete bullish sequence from the February 2018 low. Consequently we believe Bitcoin still has a high probability of extending lower 1 more time. Since Bitcoin is measured primarily in US dollars a stronger USD should equal weakness in Bitcoin.
Until the USD completes this bullish sequence then we don’t expect this any current Bitcoin strength to be sustainable. In the webinar we show our best strategies to trade this thesis in the near term.
Learn more about our methodology with a Free 14 Day Trial of any 1 of our Groups. And, to get everyday access to our Bitcoin analysis be sure to check out our Group 3 Subscription here.
Bitcoin and the US Dollar (DXY)

Video link
BTCUSD-DXY Comparison

Sugar Elliott Wave Analysis: Calling The Reaction from Inflection Area
March 26, 2019 By EWFSanjay (Edit)
I want to share with you Elliott Wave charts of Sugar which we presented to our members recently. You see the 1-hour updated chart presented to our clients on the 03/18/19. The higher degree trend of the pair is to the downside. So our members know that the right side is to the downside in the daily chart. Consequently, we advised members that we don’t like buying Sugar. And if you know what not to trade in the markets you have already won half of the battle because you know which direction is not the right one.
Sugar ended the cycle from 02/20/19 peak in black wave ((w)) at 03/07/19 low (12.15). Above from there, we expected a bounce to occur in black wave ((x)). The bounce unfolded in an Elliott Wave double correction structure. We advised members that Sugar should continue lower. Therefore, we expected sellers to appear in the sequences of 3, 7 or 11 swings. At the 100 – 1.618 Fibonacci extension of blue (w)-(x) which came at around 12.87-13.25 area and that was the first area for the selling to take place.

Sugar 03.18.2019 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis


In the last Elliott Wave chart. You can see that Sugar reached the blue box area perfectly. It did not extend into the blue box and reacted immediately lower. We need to keep in mind that in other scenarios the market can also extend into the blue box before a reaction lower/higher can be seen. If traded the blue box. Then any trades from that area shown in the chart above were risk-free, which means the stop-loss should be moved to break even, looking now for another extension lower. Please keep in mind that the 1-hour chart which I presented can have changed. This blog should just illustrate how accurate our blue boxes are, and how our members trade our 3-7 or 11 swings strategy.
If you are interested in how to trade our blue box areas and want to understand how Elliott Wave works. Then I recommend you to get a shot on our 14 days free trial below. We present a lot of trading setups in our 3 Live Trading Rooms.

Sugar 03.27.2019 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis


I hope you liked this blog and I wish you all good trades. And for all who are interested in learning more about our unique blue box areas and also want to trade profitably in 2019 then sign up for a free 14 days trial you can cancel anytime. Click the link and see you insight

Elliott Wave View: Short Term Weakness in Silver

Silver broke below March 7 low ($14.96) and shows a sequence of lower low from Feb 21 high ($16.2), suggesting further downside is likely in the shorter cycle. The decline from Feb 21 looks is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from $16.2, wave (A) ended at $14.96 and wave (B) bounce ended at $15.64. Internal of wave (B) subdivided as a double three Elliott Wave structure where wave W ended at $15.53, wave X ended at $15.1, and wave Y ended at $15.63.

As Silver has broken below wave (A) at $14.96, this confirms wave (C) has started. An ABC zigzag Elliott Wave structure has a subdivision of 5-3-5. Thus, wave (C) lower needs to have at minimum 5 waves subdivision. So far, we can only see 3 waves down from wave (B). Down from $15.63, wave ((i)) ended at $15.35, wave ((ii)) ended at $15.58, and wave ((iii)) remains in progress. We think that Silver likely see at least 1 more leg lower to end a 5 waves down from $15.6. This view is valid as far as pivot at $15.6 remains intact.

Potential wave (C) target can be measured as equal to wave (A), which comes to as low as $14.08 – $14.37. This will effectively retest the 2018 low at $13.87. Wave (C) may truncate and not reach the ideal equality at $14.08 – $14.37, but at least we should be able to see 5 waves subdivision within wave (C). Near term, while bounces stay below $15.63, expect Silver to extend lower at least 1 more leg.

1 Hour Silver Elliott Wave Chart

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Markets Turning Lower as US Yield Curve Inverts
March 29, 2019 By EWFHendra (Edit)
In the last FOMC meeting, the Fed turned cautious and said they will not raise benchmark interest rate this year. In addition, balance sheet normalization will also end in September from an “auto-pilot” approach. Normally the market cheers when the Fed is taking a dovish stance as this signals a loose monetary policy. However, it does not appear to be the case this time as the market is genuinely concerned about a global downturn. Euro Zone’s Flash service PMI last week missed the expectation by a significant margin, signalling a weakening economy.
Then last Friday the yield on US 10 year Treasury note dipped below the yield of 3-month paper. This is what’s commonly called yield curve inversion, and this happens for the first time since mid 2007. The Fed considers this as one of the most reliable recession indicators in the market. The chart below supports this view point:

Since post Bretton Woods era, the 3 month – 10 year yield inversion always follows a recession without any false negative. It’s also important to consider that the monetary tightening by the Fed last year with multiple rate hikes and balance sheet reduction has 12 – 18 months lag effect. This means the full effect of the monetary tightening most likely will appear at the second half of this year. Markets came under pressure last week as S&P 500 closed -1.9% last Friday. Stronger Yen also sent Nikkei -3% lower on Monday.
This week market has somewhat recovered but if the fear of recession continues to materialize, it may provide a ceiling to the market’s rally.
DAX Weekly Chart

Analysis of the DAX weekly chart above shows that the Index broke below the ascending channel from Sept 2011 low. The recovery which started at the end of last year retested the broken trend line and getting rejected. There’s a possibility that the Index has started to roll over and potentially can extend lower especially if data continues to reinforce the economic slowdown. At the minimum, the Index can see a larger 3 waves pullback to correct the 3 months old rally. A close above the broken trend line from Sept 2011 low will invalidate this bearish view.
DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

The 1 hour Elliott Wave chart for DAX shows that the rally to 11825.64 ended wave x. This ends right around the apex as the weekly chart above shows. The Index has started to roll over. The decline from there is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure and ended wave ((w)) at 11299.80. Short term, wave ((x)) bounce is expected to fail at 11577 – 11703 for further downside as far as pivot at 11825.64 stays intact.
Keep in mind that market is dynamic and the view may have changed since the publication of the article. To get the latest analysis and Elliott Wave update in DAX or other Indices, you can take 14 days FREE Trial without commitment.

Elliott Wave View: Oil Can see Profit Taking Soon

After forming the low on December 24, 2018 low at $42.36, Oil has continued to recover. The rally from Dec 24 last year looks to be unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. The instrument should soon reach the minimum 100% target at $63 – $65.8 and this area can potentially end the cycle from Dec 24, 2018 low. Expect some profit taking and larger 3 waves pullback when Oil reaches this area.

Near term, Oil is within wave ((C)) of the zigzag structure. As zigzag is a 5-3-5 structure, wave ((C)) subdivides into 5 waves. In the 1 hour chart below, we can see the wave (3) and (4) of this ((C)) leg. Rally to $60.39 ended wave (3) and pullback to $58.18 ended wave (4). Wave (5) is in progress as an ending diagonal. Up from $58.18, wave 1 ended at $60.38 and wave (2) pullback ended at $58.20

Expect wave 3 to end soon and wave 4 pullback to commence. While the dips stay above $58.18, oil should do 1 more leg higher in wave 5 of (5). This push higher should also end wave ((C)) of the zigzag from Dec 24, 2018 low. Afterwards, expect profit taking and larger pullback in Oil.

1 Hour Oil Elliott Wave Chart

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Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Ending Wave 5

Cycle from Dec 26, 2018 low in S&P 500 (SPX) remains in progress as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the 1 hour chart below, we can see wave (4) of this impulsive move ended at 2722.27. The Index has resumed higher in wave (5) with subdivision also as an impulse of lesser degree. Up from 2722.27, wave 1 ended at 2852.42 and wave 2 ended at 2785.02.

Wave 1 subdivides as an impulse where wave ((i)) ended at 2736.25 and wave ((ii)) ended at 2723.02. Up from there, wave ((iii)) ended at 2821.24, wave ((iv)) ended at 2803.46, and wave ((v)) of 1 ended at 2852.42. Wave 2 pullback unfolded as double three Elliott Wave structure where wave ((w)) ended at 2802.13, wave ((x)) ended at 2823.28, and wave ((y)) of 2 ended at 2785.02. Wave 3 rally is currently in progress as an impulse. Near term, while dips stay above 2784.94, expect Index to extend higher. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback.

1 Hour SPX Elliott Wave Chart

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GBPAUD : Market Patterns Calling More Downside?
April 2, 2019 By EWF Aidan (Edit)
GBPAUD Technical Analysis April 2/2019
GBPAUD : Bearish market patterns can be seen on the GBPAUD 1 hour chart. In the chart below both the blue and pink bearish patterns already triggered SELLS. Blue bearish pattern triggered SELLS at the BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level and the pink bearish pattern triggered SELLS at the XA 1.27% Fib. retracement level. Only the grey bearish pattern has still not triggered SELLS (XA 0.886%). Price does not need to move higher to the grey XA 0.886% Fib. level to trigger the grey bearish pattern SELL for the pair to start a move lower. Both blue and pink bearish patterns have already got sellers in the market. If looking to trade GBPAUD stops should be placed at the point B high of the blue bearish pattern and traders should watch for a possible move lower at the pink XA 1.27% Fib. level. The targets (green) are based on the pink bearish pattern XA 1.27% entry. As long as the March 27/2019 high holds GBPAUD has a strong probability of making another move lower. Only time will tell what GBPAUD will do but at least now you are aware of the possible area where the pair can reverse lower from.
GBPAUD 1 Hour Chart 4.2.2019

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan
*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***
At Elliottwave-Forecast we cover 78 instruments (Forex, Commodities, Indices, Stocks and ETFs) in 4 different timeframes and we offer 5 Live Session Webinars everyday. We do Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Trade Setup Videos and we have a 24 Chat Room. Our clients are always in the loop for the next market move.
Try Elliottwave-Forecast for 14 days FREE !!! Just click here –> 14 day FREE trial

Canopy Growth Corporation (NYSE: CGC) Bullish Cycle in Progress
April 2, 2019 By Ayoub Ben Rejeb (Edit)
Canopy Growth Corporation (NYSE : CGC) is a Canadian cannabis company. The company was known as Tweed Marijuana Inc. then it was renamed in 2015. As of late September 2018, Canopy became the world’s largest cannabis company, based on market capitalization.
Since last December, CGC saw a strong rally achieving 90% gains in just 2 months before starting a correction lower. So before we jump into any conclusion, let’s take a look at the bigger picture:
CGC Weekly Chart 4/1/2019

In the above chart, we can see that CGC rallied in an impulsive 5 waves advance since IPO proposed to be the first wave (I) and that cycle ended on October of last year at $59.25 peak. Then down from there, the stock corrected the entire cycle lower in a classical 3 waves zigzag structure which ended on December 2018 at $25.
Therefore, the stock is technically trapped between those two levels and only a break above 2018 peak will be the key to start a new bullish cycle. At this stage, a double correction in wave (II) isn’t denied yet but the rally from December low is suggesting a new impulsive structure taking place supporting the bullish scenario.
CGC Monthly Chart 4/1/2019

Making new all time highs will be the start of a new incomplete bullish sequence for CGC. Consequently, the stock will be aiming for a minimum target at the 100% Fibonacci extension level at $83.84 and higher levels above $100 will follow. So based on that assumption, investors will be looking to buy any pullback in 3 , 7 or 11 swings against 2018 low.
Now as we established the main trend for the stock, we can take a look at the daily chart and explore the potential moves that can take place in the coming weeks:
CGC Daily Chart 4/1/2019
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-...t-4.1.2019.png
Currently, CGC is proposed to be doing a double three corrective structure since February 2019 peak which ideally expected to find buyers at extreme blue box area $39.7 – $33.45 for a 3 waves bounce at least. However, if the stock fails to rally to new highs from there, another double correction can take place against $25 before ending wave II and turning higher.
CGC Daily Alternative Chart 4/1/2019
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-...D-4.1.2019.png
Conclusion
Canopy Growth Corporation is a Bullish stock and it’s looking to remain supported against December 2018 low $25. The stock still needs to break above 2018 peak to open the door for higher levels.
Get more insights about Cannabis Stocks by trying out our services 14 days and learning how to trade our blue boxes using the 3, 7 or 11 swings sequence. You will get access to our 78 instruments updated in 4 different time frames, Live Trading & Analysis Session done by our Expert Analysts every day, 24-hour chat room support and much more.

Daily Market News 4.2.2019

Welcome to the Daily Market News video.
Today’s market close results: the DJIA down -0.30%, the S&P500 unchanged, the Nasdaq up 0.25%, and the Russell 2000 down -0.18%.
Bitcoin drew the most attention on the day closing the New York session up over 15%. In the video, we look at 2 key resistance levels. Bitcoin broke to the upside, and it should keep the bullish sentiment strong in the near term.
Daily Market News 4.2.2019 video

Bitcoin Jumps Sharply by 23%. Is the Bear Market Over?
April 2, 2019 By EWFHendra (Edit)
Today the price of Bitcoin suddenly jumped a massive 23% within 2 hours to reach the highest level in 4 months. The crypto-currency has also added over $14 billion to its market value in the last 24 hours. This ended the consolidation since last December at $3122 and provided relief for the bulls. A large volume accompanies the rally higher as the chart below shows:

There does not seem to have any specific reason or catalyst for the rally. Rival coins such as Ether, XRP, and Litecoin also jumped. Trading has been subdued in the last few months and volatility may have reached the floor, thus a mean reversion is bound to happen.

One possible reasons for the breakout is a short squeeze when the virtual coin was finally able to break above the $4,200 resistance level. It struggled to break this level in the past 4 months. The clean break led to the substantial follow through possibly triggering some algorithmic trade. This break higher has the chance to end the bearish trend since Jan 2018 high as the chart below shows:
Bitcoin Daily Chart

Dips in Bitcoin can now hold above $4200 for further upside in coming months. Below is our latest 4 hour Bitcoin Elliott Wave chart
4 Hour Bitcoin Elliott Wave Chart

From the chart above, we can see the rally from Jan 29, 2019 low is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from Jan 29 low, wave 1 ended at $4190 and wave 2 ended at $3658.19. Wave 3 is currently in progress and subdivides as an impulse of lesser degree. Near term, expect more upside in the cryptocurrency as far as dips stay above $3849.33.
For further forecast update on Bitcoin or other stocks, commodities, and forex, take 14 days Free Trial without commitment.

Natural Gas ( NG #F) Calling The Decline After Double Three Pattern
Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the charts of Natural Gas published in members area of the website. As our members know, we were calling February cycle completed at the 2.911 peak. The Futures made very sideways recovery against the mentioned peak, that unfolded as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern. We advised clients to avoid trading Natural Gas due to tricky sideways structure. Anyway, we were calling for further weakness as far as the price stays below 2.911 peak.
In the charts below, we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave structure and forecast.

Natural Gas Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 3.19.2019
The Commodity has made Elliott Wave Double Three Recovery against the 2.911 peak. Correction’s subdivisions are labeled as WXY red. If we take a closer look, we can notice that waves W and X have unfolded as Elliott Wave Zig Zags: ((a))((b))((c)), while Y red is also Double Three : ((w))((x))((y)). We’re calling correction completed at 2.898 peak.
Double three is the most important pattern in New Elliott Wave theory and probably the most common pattern in the market these days, also known as 7 swing structure. Elliott Wave Double Three has (W),(X),(Y) labeling and 3,3,3 inner structure, which means all of these 3 legs are corrective sequences. You can learn more about Double Three Pattern at our Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

Natural Gas Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 3.28.2019
2.898 high held nicely, and we got expected decline. We got 5 waves down from the 2.898 peak, and currently correcting that cycle. Short term recovery is unfolding as Irregular Flat Pattern, labeled as wave 2 red. Once bounce completes we expect more downside in Natural Gas.

Natural Gas Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 4.02.2019
Finally wave 2 red ended as Running Flat and we got new short term low. Cycle from the 2.899 peak is incomplete now, the price is showing lower low sequences. Consequently , as far as the price stays below wave 2 red high, we should be ideally doing next leg lower.
Keep in mind market is very dynamic and proposed view could have ended in the mean time. You can check most recent updates in the Membersip Area of the Website . Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-...ural-gas-1.jpg
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Elliott Wave View Looking for Further Correction in Gold

Elliott Wave view suggests that Gold has ended cycle from August 16, 2018 low ($1160.37). The yellow metal is currently correcting that cycle as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from Feb 20, 2019 high, wave A ended at $1281.01 and wave B ended at $1324.38. The yellow metal still needs to break below wave A at $1281.01 to validate this view.

Wave C is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from $1324.38, wave ((i)) ended at $1285.17. In the 1 hour chart below, we can see wave ((i)) subdivides as an impulse of a lesser degree. Wave ((ii)) bounce takes the form of a zigzag structure where wave (a) ended at $1294.36 and wave (b) ended at $1288.20. Near term, while wave ((ii)) bounce stays below $1324.38, expect Gold to extend lower. Projected area of wave ((ii)) comes at $1297 – $1303 where wave (a) = wave (c).

1 Hour XAUUSD Elliott Wave Chart

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Elliottwave Count Suggests Target ( TGT ) Can Break $60
April 4, 2019 By EWFJames (Edit)
Target ( TGT )
Looking at the March report for February US Retail Sales numbers we find the current level of sales at 445.66B, down from 446.71B last month. This represents a monthly annualized growth rate of -2.82%, compared to a long term average annualized growth rate of 4.17%. Is this a blimp or is the first data point signaling a coming problem for retailers? Consequently with that question in mind I set out to scan retailer stock charts to look for any clear Elliott Wave patterns that may provide an opportunity to exploit any mispricing. It didn’t take me long to find one that appears relatively clear. Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) appears to have completed an impulsive 5 wave move to the downside from the $90.39 high of 9/10/2018.
The subdivision from the September highs are clearly in 5 waves. As Elliotticians we would look for a corrective structure to follow. This would place the probabilities on our side that we should see another swing to the downside once a correction was complete.
Elliott Wave
From the $60.15, wave (a), lows of December 24,2018 TGT appears to have progressed higher in a double-three pattern. The most recent high is the $81.56 print on 3/28/2019. If we indeed turn from there we know that we should take out the $60.15 low, but how low could TGT extend?
I want to be clear and state that we have no confirmation of a top at the March 28th high. But, if we aggressively call a top in place at that $81.56 high then we would look for a symmetrical move in wave (c) relative to the length of (a). This targets $51.35. Can it go that low?
We’ll be looking for a short term bearish sequence to develop from $81.56 to start the confirmation process. Come join us and learn more about how we scan 78 different financial instruments everyday to look for the best trading opportunities that provide that highest probability of success.


Target Daily Chart

To your success,

James
EWF Analytical Team

General Motors: The Price Action is Key for World Indices

Most of the World Indices have ended the cycle from the post-2009 Financial crisis low. But still, there are few Indices which are due for another cycle higher. SPX and SPY are running in an Elliott Wave Impulse structure. We at Elliott Wave Forecast believe in the idea of combining other Financial Instruments and relate them with each other. Consequently, we combine also cycles to each other. As we do understand that most of the time the Financial Market works, as a whole.
Recently, we did a blog about the SPY showing the increased volatility. We explained how the Index can be doing a new high and can turn lower in a higher degree wave (IV). The most significant low in most of the Indices is the 12/2018. Above from there, the price action seems to unfold as an Impulse.
In the monthly chart below you can see that the SPY ETF is close to breaking into new all-time highs again. But what will happen after that? This question cannot be answered using its own price action. As Elliott Wave Theory practitioners, we do understand that this is either the whole red wave V or alternatively, it is just wave ((1)) of wave V. If you use only the Theory, you will be left with no answer. But as I said before, we at Elliott Wave Forecast use additional tools and we follow around 100 instruments on a Daily basis and relate them to each other. Today, we will be using General Motors stocks to track and decide which way the SPY ETF can go. In either case. It will extend within wave V or ends wave V. The following chart is showing the SPY ending wave V.

SPY ETF 04.03.2019 Monthly Elliott Wave View


And the next chart is showing the second scenario. Which is showing SPY with an extended wave V.

SPY ETF 04.03.2019 Monthly View with extended wave V


At this moment in time, we can not tell which one of the 2 scenarios will be ending happening based on the Elliott Wave Theory. So we look for another instrument to peak the path with a higher probability. For that let’s relate the GM stock and the German DAX.

DAX vs General Motors Daily Chart Overlay


The General Motors stock is always trading similar to other big World Indices. The chart above shows the relation of the DAX Index together with the GM stock. And it is easy to see that they trade overall in the same direction. However, one of the biggest differences is that GM bottomed first when it reached 100% equal legs from 10/24/17 peak at $30.56+ area. Also, we can see how the first pullback in GM ended at 12/26/18. And at that time we saw the low in the DAX and in other World Indices as well. Then both have been trading higher since that low. Then it became very interesting because of the following 3 observations.
1. General Motors has an early low and consequently reached 100% equal legs from 10/24/18 and found sellers at $41.50
2. General Motors ended the cycle from 12/26/18 which is the same as the World Indices cycle
3. The DAX is still trading higher within the 12/26/18 cycle and soon will reach its respective 100% equal legs area

In our system, this is a huge and important observation. Because now GM will possibly dictate if the SPY ETF will extend within wave V or will end the wave V. With that said, it is now easy how to put this into the context. For that, we will have a look at the chart below.

GM 04.03.2019 4-Hour Elliott Wave View


The chart is showing the price action in GM from 10/24/2018 lows. It shows our Blue Box area which comes at around $41.50 which is from its 10/24/18 low. The key is that GM needs to hold the peak at $41.50. If it breaks that peak clearly the Bears will lose control of the Market. The peak at 41.50 means that it ended a 3 waves advance structure. And a break above there will mean it becomes 5 waves from lows and consequently, more upside will be seen after a 3 waves pullback. This path would mean that the Bulls would be on the driver seat and that will translate that SPY will be ending only wave ((1)) of wave V.
But for now, we believe that as far as GM hold the peak at $41.50, sellers have the chance to make another run lower and create 7 swings lower across the World Indices. Then SPY will be ending wave V and consequently wave (III).
We at Elliott Wave Forecast understand that the Market cannot be forecasted based on one instrument and its price action. We have noticed that after years of practicing the Elliott Wave Theory. We knew that adjustments and other tools were needed to get an edge over the Market. We have learned that in the Market you always have more than one path. Therefore, relating other Instruments is key to determine the possible outcome.

Elliott Wave Analysis: Selling Coffee Rally in Blue Box
April 4, 2019 By EWFEverardo (Edit)
Welcome traders, today we look at a couple of 30-min Coffee futures (KC_F) charts and its price action within hours. The following analysis will show how profitable and efficient it can be to trade with our philosophy and basic Elliott Wave analysis.
First of all, we start on March 27th with a 30-minute chart presented to our members. Here, we believe the market favors the downside in the near term based on our count. The top at $98.75, labeled as wave ‘((ii))’, serves as a resistance pivot after finishing a 7 swing move ‘w-x-y’. From there, an overlapping 5 wave structure is identified and a pullback initiates for wave ‘(b)’. Due to the nature of wave (i) down as a diagonal, we expect a 3,7 or 11 swing move down for wave ‘(iii)’. According to Elliott Wave theory, we are safe to assume an Elliott Wave zigzag structure move to complete wave ‘((iii))’; hence, the projected ‘(a)-(b)-(c)’ move .
Under our methodology, we do not take action with an unconfirmed ‘right side of the market’. In this particular example we have a confirmed ‘right side’ . This is represented by the “RightSide” arrow in red. So, we let the market shows itself and act when the price reaches extreme areas countering to the ‘right side’. As soon as wave (a) was confirmed, and an a-b swing is identified, we derived a 1:1 minimum target and a 1:1.618 extreme target. These targets are combined to provide a blue box target area where high probabilities favor the instrument to react from and very possibly resume the trend lower.
Coffee 03.27.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis

Below you will see an updated chart of coffee later on the same day. The bounce took the the structure of a 7 swing ‘w-x-y’ into the blue box, then coffee reacts and resumes the dominant trend. Our members were advised to take the short and were rewarded. Trading is always about taking a chance. But, what can be better than taking a chance with probabilities on your side. Now, we continue adapting and we wait for a new opportunity as the market repeats itself. Once again, our blue box target areas showing how accurate they can be. In the Live Trading Room, we have closed our short position from 96.08 blue box at 92.8 for a $3.28 profit.
Coffee 03.27.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis

*Note : Keep in mind the market is dynamic and the presented view might have changed after the post was published.
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HDFC Bank Elliott Wave Cycle from 2009 Getting Mature
April 3, 2019 By Daud Bhatti (Edit)
HDFC Bank Limited (Housing Development Finance Corporation) is an Indian banking and financial services company headquartered in Mumbai, India. It has 88,253 permanent employees as of 31 March 2018 and has a presence in Bharain, Hong Kong and Dubai. HDFC Bank is India’s largest private sector lender by assets. It is the largest bank in India by market capitalization as of February 2016. It was ranked 69th in 2016 BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands
HDFC Bank structure of the rally from the all time low is taking the form of an Elliott Wave Impulse and today, we will present the Long-term and mid-term Elliott Wave Analysis of HDFC Bank and also look at the upside targets after it broke above July 2018 peak (2220). HDFC Bank is part of NSE
HDFC Bank Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis
Weekly chart shows HDFC Bank stock to be still within wave ((III)) from the all time low when wave (I) ended at 1128 (July 2015), wave (II) ended at 925.80 (February 2016), wave (III) ended at 2220 (July 2018) and wave (IV) completed at 1885 (October 2018). It has already made a new high above July 2018 peak suggesting wave (V) of ((III)) is in progress and should ideally reach an area between 2462 – 2688 to complete wave ((III)) before it starts a larger pull back in wave ((IV)) to correct the cycle from 2009 low and then resume the rally again. Trend is extreme as of now but there is still room for further upside within the cycle from January 2019 low and hence we don’t recommend the selling, short-term traders would still be looking for buying opportunities in intra-day dips. Mid-term traders, however, would ideally wait for a pull back in red wave IV and next swing trading opportunity would be seen during wave ((IV)) pull back.

HDFC Bank Daily Elliott Wave Analysis
HDFC Bank Daily chart shows the structure of the move up from October 2018 low i.e. wave (IV) low. We can see that the stocks has reached 100% extension of wave I related to wave II but it appears to be still in 3 waves up from the red II low and is in need of a pull back and another high to complete red wave III. Afterwards, a pull back in wave IV would be expected to correct the cycle from 2022 (January 2019) low and another high to complete wave V of (V) and the black wave ((III)) which should mark the end of cycle from 2009 low and could then see a roll over process starting.
Alternatively, wave (V) could take the form of an Ending Diagonal when a pull back and another high would complete wave I of (V) as a zigzag and then we could see a larger pull back to correct the cycle from October 2018 low in the form of wave II before extension higher in the form of wave III of diagonal wave (V).

BIIB Medium Term Elliott Wave Analysis 4.03.2019
April 4, 2019 By Hassan Sheikh (Edit)
Biogen Incorporation (ticker symbol: BIIB) is an American multinational biotechnology company specialized in discovery, development, manufacturing, and delivery of therapies for the treatment of neurogenetics, hematologic and autoimmune disease. The company currently employs 7800 people approximately.
The BIIB stock’s value has declined 34% from 2018-2019 with net income dropping down to $1.72 billion from $2.61 billion last year. However, in this blog, we will take a look at the technical picture of the stock using the Elliott wave theory to identify future price action in the stock below.
BIIB Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis

Looking at Weekly Time Frame Chart, the cycle from All time lows is complete at $442.29 high seen on 3/20/2015 peak in Grand Super Cycle degree. Down from there, the stock is doing a bigger 3 wave pullback to correct the all-time low cycle within Grand Super Cycle degree wave ((II)).
The pullback from the peak takes the form of an Elliott wave zigzag structure where Super Cycle degree wave (a) ended at $205.42 low. Wave (b) bounce ended in lesser degree zigzag structure at $388.83 high. Wave (c) lower remains in progress towards $151.50-$95.55 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of (a)-(b).
BIIB Daily Elliott Wave Analysis

Here’s the Daily Time frame Chart, suggesting that as far as a pivot from $388.83 high stays intact near-term bounces should fail in 3, 7 or 11 swings for more downside in the stock towards $151.50-$95.55 area lower within wave Super Cycle degree wave (c). This area should see buyers for next cycle higher or bigger 3 waves bounce at least.
BIIB Daily Alternative Elliott Wave Analysis
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Above is the Daily Alternative view Chart, in which the degree of pullback from 3/20/2015 peak can be unfolding as double three structure instead of zigzag structure. In this scenario, the decline to $205.42 low ended Super Cycle degree wave (w) with subdivision of a zigzag structure. Then a bounce to $388.83 high ended wave (x) with subdivision also as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure.
Down from there, wave (y) can be unfolding as double three structure where it can be ending cycle degree wave w in red at $233.98-$165.65 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of ((A))-((B)). Then from there, the stock can see a 3 wave bounce against $388.83 high before a final extension lower towards $151.50-$95.55 area lower can be seen.
Keep in mind that the market is dynamic and the view could change in the meantime. Success in trading requires proper risk and money management as well as an understanding of Elliott Wave theory, cycle analysis, and correlation. We have developed a very good trading strategy that defines the entry. Stop loss and take profit levels with high accuracy and allows you to take a risk-free position, shortly after taking it by protecting your wallet. If you want to learn all about it and become a professional trader. Then join our service by taking a Free Trial.

BABA Elliott Wave View: Found Buyers in Blue Box and Rallied
April 2, 2019 By EWFSanjay (Edit)
Hello fellow traders. Today, I want to share some Elliott Wave charts of the BABA stockwhich we presented to our members in the past. Below, you see the 1-hour updated chart presented to our clients on the 03/28/19. showing that BABA ended the cycle from 03/07/19 low (171.55) at the peak of 03/19/19 (183.48) in red wave W.
Below from there, we advised members that the pullback in red wave X ended at 173.59 low. Above from there it did the first leg higher in 5 waves of blue wave (a) which ended at 180.57 peak. Then below from that level, we said to our clients it should see the equal legs from 03/26 peak towards the areas of the 100 – 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the red wave w-x which came around 176.24-174.02. Therefore, we expected buyers to appear in the sequences of 3, 7 or 11 swings. And that was the first area for buyers to appear to take prices to new high above 03/19/19 (183.48) peak. Or a larger 3 waves bounce at least. As BABA entered the blue box it reacted quite aggressively to the upside.

BABA 03.28.2019 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis


In the last Elliott Wave chart, you can see that BABA continued the strong reaction higher and rallied like expected to new highs. Above red wave W peak. Due to the turning up tag, we expected BABA to be supported overall in the 1H timeframe. If traded our blue box. Any trades from that area have been risk-free, which means the stop-loss was moved to breakeven, targeting higher levels. Do please keep in mind that the 1-hour chart which I presented might have changed already. The blue boxes you see in our charts are our so-called High-Frequency boxes. Where the market ideally shows us a reaction either lower or higher. These areas are used be traded in the direction of the right side.
If you are interested in how to trade our blue box areas and want to understand how Elliott Wave works. Then I recommend you to get a shot on our 14 days free trial below. We present a lot of trading setups in our 3 Live Trading Rooms.

BABA 04.01.2019 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis


I hope you liked this blog and I wish you all good trades. And for all who are interested in learning more about our unique blue box areas and also want to trade profitably in 2019 then sign up for a free 14 days trial you can cancel anytime. Click the link and see you insight