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Plan the Trade

  • #11,701
  • Apr 3, 2019 11:24am Apr 3, 2019 11:24am
Quoting J-f
On NQ, even if “Wednesday” (Divergence doesn't trade on Wednesdays), it was another practice session this morning, another opportunity to train the eyes and for once it seemed reasonably clear. Only 1 trade (SIM): But first, before that one trade, a limit order long on what I think was a “2b” entry (entry order at mid candle) didn’t get filled, because it was missed by 1 tick. T1: only trade of the morning was short on what I think was a 123s (see chart). It filled nicely but didn’t really go anywhere first. After a few (very long...) minutes, it...

i took the same trades on sim
  • #11,702
  • Apr 3, 2019 12:15pm Apr 3, 2019 12:15pm
Quoting J-f
On NQ, even if “Wednesday” (Divergence doesn't trade on Wednesdays), it was another practice session this morning, another opportunity to train the eyes and for once it seemed reasonably clear. Only 1 trade (SIM): But first, before that one trade, a limit order long on what I think was a “2b” entry (entry order at mid candle) didn’t get filled, because it was missed by 1 tick. T1: only trade of the morning was short on what I think was a 123s (see chart). It filled nicely but didn’t really go anywhere first. After a few (very long...) minutes, it...
one thing you must be aware of 2b breaks are usually followed by 123
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  • #11,703
  • Apr 3, 2019 12:22pm Apr 3, 2019 12:22pm
123 in the es DD on a 30 second chart
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  • #11,704
  • Apr 3, 2019 12:27pm Apr 3, 2019 12:27pm
Quoting ddaytrader
First set up of the day using the blog methodolgy: {image} {image}
..different stoch 533 print on ninjatrader before your 1st setup, not sure why..
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  • #11,705
  • Apr 3, 2019 12:43pm Apr 3, 2019 12:43pm
and a 123 on the ym hopefully you guys are getting the picture
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  • #11,706
  • Apr 3, 2019 1:54pm Apr 3, 2019 1:54pm
Quoting Noeyedear
{quote} ..different stoch 533 print on ninjatrader before your 1st setup, not sure why.. {image}
Pit looks like you have 24 hour data and I only plot nyc hours
Let me see the whole chart, @noeyedear

@capstone I will answer you later ... just saw your post now
  • #11,707
  • Apr 3, 2019 3:39pm Apr 3, 2019 3:39pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Pit looks like you have 24 hour data and I only plot nyc hours Let me see the whole chart, @noeyedear
yes, using 24hr data, i'll see if changing to session hours makes the difference. Thanks.
  • #11,708
  • Apr 3, 2019 4:49pm Apr 3, 2019 4:49pm
Quoting Noeyedear
{quote} yes, using 24hr data, i'll see if changing to session hours makes the difference. Thanks.
It will definitely change the reading. You can use the 24 hour data to trade the system. Just be aware that the signals will likely be somewhat different, especially for the first hour or so until the day session "catches up" or something like that. For the purpose of this series of trades, I will only be running NYC data
  • #11,709
  • Apr 3, 2019 7:40pm Apr 3, 2019 7:40pm
Quoting capstone
{quote} DD, Do you know if the ES is consistently this active at that time?
As with any market there will be dull days and active days. As Divergence will tell you, most days you can count on tradable action between 9:30 AM and 12 noon. I also trade pre-market as well if a set up arises, though I am trying to keep myself away from pre-market trading to tell you the truth. That is one of the reasons I set the bog up as I did to focus only on NYC hours.

I think it is important for you and I and everyone to realize that trading is not a business of days or weeks but months. If we have an edge and a trading plan, the profits will take care of themselves. I feel one of the greatest causes of trader failure (and I am as guilty of this thinking as anyone) is that too often we feel we need to make $XXXX dollars a day. That is baloney. What we need to do is trade every occurrence of our edge during whatever time we have devoted to our trading business. If we have an edge, then at the end of the month, the money will be there in our brokerage account to request a paycheck.
  • #11,710
  • Apr 3, 2019 7:41pm Apr 3, 2019 7:41pm
New blog post: it is long but I myself feel I learned, or at least re-learned a whole lot but going through today's price action carefully and completely. I hope you all enjoy it.

https://twentytradechallenge.wordpre...edge-part-two/
  • #11,711
  • Apr 3, 2019 7:51pm Apr 3, 2019 7:51pm
i know its your plan your blog but as long as you see value with the indicator thats all that matters i personally have looked at every indicator under the sun and discovered that nothing replaces pattern action which by the way you were using apart from the indicator
  • #11,712
  • Apr 3, 2019 7:52pm Apr 3, 2019 7:52pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} As with any market there will be dull days and active days. As Divergence will tell you, most days you can count on tradable action between 9:30 AM and 12 noon. I also trade pre-market as well if a set up arises, though I am trying to keep myself away from pre-market trading to tell you the truth. That is one of the reasons I set the bog up as I did to focus only on NYC hours. I think it is important for you and I and everyone to realize that trading is not a business of days or weeks but months. If we have an edge and a trading plan, the...
For sure. Agree with all of that. There are trading times that are more predisposed to setups than others though. I guess it only makes sense that the 9:30 to noon time would increase that probability, as opposed to the charts in the evening, with less volume and fewer participants.

Thanks for your participation in the thread, by the way.
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #11,713
  • Apr 3, 2019 8:06pm Apr 3, 2019 8:06pm
Quoting Divergence
i know its your plan your blog but as long as you see value with the indicator thats all that matters i personally have looked at every indicator under the sun and discovered that nothing replaces pattern action which by the way you were using apart from the indicator
For the blog, I really wanted to come up with a method that could be very mechanical as well as unambiguous. Trading the 123's and 2B's is excellent. But as we have seen here, it is not always clear and unambiguous to the uninitiated as to whether that was a 123, a 2B, or a not to be.

With the blog methodology, the %K either is over 80% and declining to less than 50%, or it is not. The only ambiguity I need to deal with (and I have tried very hard in tonight's blog post to clear that ambiguity) is when is a long signal not a long signal. For that, I am using patterns: The double bottom, and the three pushes down, both of which are closely related to Trader Vic 2B's.

And you are correct in that price action is very much a part of the methodology. I'd expect a veteran price action trader like yourself to see that right away. For those friends of ours here who might be struggling a bit, the method I am laying out at the blog is sort of like price actio trading with training wheels. I structured the indicator's appearance in such a way as to separate the signal, so to speak, form the noise. By relating the indicators behavior back to price behavior, I think the method has the very real possibility of adding a sort of high school level education to prepare some for Divergence University.

Let's face, Harold. Those who can trade a naked chart like you do are few and far between. Besides, I am going to do this method for a series of twenty trades. Depending upon how it goes, I might do a second series of twenty trades. But my next methd that I will demonstrate at the blog is basically a version of your original Flag Trading the Trend method. What's old is new!

I have found your recent charts very helpful myself, and I encourage you to continue posting them daily. A picture is worth a thousand words. Your pictures beat my words any day
  • #11,714
  • Apr 3, 2019 8:09pm Apr 3, 2019 8:09pm
Quoting capstone
{quote} For sure. Agree with all of that. There are trading times that are more predisposed to setups than others though. I guess it only makes sense that the 9:30 to noon time would increase that probability, as opposed to the charts in the evening, with less volume and fewer participants. Thanks for your participation in the thread, by the way.
Hang Seng Index is the one that would be moving with great range in the evenings for you. However, I dont think margin and volume are not as good as US indexes . . . .
  • #11,715
  • Apr 3, 2019 8:25pm Apr 3, 2019 8:25pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} For the blog, I really wanted to come up with a method that could be very mechanical as well as unambiguous. Trading the 123's and 2B's is excellent. But as we have seen here, it is not always clear and unambiguous to the uninitiated as to whether that was a 123, a 2B, or a not to be. With the blog methodology, the %K either is over 80% and declining to less than 50%, or it is not. The only ambiguity I need to deal with (and I have tried very hard in tonight's blog post to clear that ambiguity) is when is a long signal not a long signal....
i agree DD the flag trading the trend prepared me for what i am doing now. Like anything in life people are at different stages and thats why your helping and i am helping so that in the end those we help will help others because i aint going to live forever at least not in this realm
  • #11,716
  • Apr 3, 2019 8:33pm Apr 3, 2019 8:33pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} i agree DD the flag trading the trend prepared me for what i am doing now. Like anything in life people are at different stages and thats why your helping and i am helping so that in the end those we help will help others because i aint going to live forever at least not in this realm
You've done and continue to do great work, Harold. You are the reason I came back to FF at all. I'm sure you already know how much folks here appreciate you. I have a number of PM's in my in box singing your praises if you do not realize how much good you do. I'm happy to be part of this thread with you and CG and erasmus again.
  • #11,717
  • Apr 3, 2019 8:43pm Apr 3, 2019 8:43pm
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} You've done and continue to do great work, Harold. You are the reason I came back to FF at all. I'm sure you already know how much folks here appreciate you. I have a number of PM's in my in box singing your praises if you do not realize how much good you do. I'm happy to be part of this thread with you and CG and erasmus again.
i am glad you returned also but i dont need to be praised i just fleshed out stuff already taught years ago i just added a few wrinkles nothing more nothing less than that
  • #11,718
  • Edited 7:47am Apr 4, 2019 3:33am | Edited 7:47am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} It will definitely change the reading. You can use the 24 hour data to trade the system. Just be aware that the signals will likely be somewhat different, especially for the first hour or so until the day session "catches up" or something like that. For the purpose of this series of trades, I will only be running NYC data
Many thanks - really appreciate the work you are sharing in the blog. I'm UK based and the strat appears to hold up well even pre-market (NQ & ES).
  • #11,719
  • Apr 4, 2019 4:52am Apr 4, 2019 4:52am
Quoting bapakjason
{quote} Hang Seng Index is the one that would be moving with great range in the evenings for you. However, I dont think margin and volume are not as good as US indexes . . . .
Unfortunately, Infinity doesn't offer it. May have to go to s less reputable broker (market maker) to keep the wife happy and work towards trading full time. Yikes!
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #11,720
  • Apr 4, 2019 5:18am Apr 4, 2019 5:18am
Quoting capstone
{quote} Unfortunately, Infinity doesn't offer it. May have to go to s less reputable broker (market maker) to keep the wife happy and work towards trading full time. Yikes!
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