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  • #201
  • Mar 31, 2019 4:41pm Mar 31, 2019 4:41pm
mr Eco you must come up with a bit more than ''mind about fundamentals boys'' be careful for new crisis, this are just beer conversation subjects at least for me. show us some numbers to validate one strategy ,i dont mind if is a demo. I dont trade even when i am in manual trading with the fear like ''watch out cos disaster will happen'' ,no way. will not be first time when fundamentals ''professionals'' just give a little fear and help to retailers to have their stops hit and so another little portion from margin ... gone. I really dont belive in any guy who does any fundamentals analyzes, price it is where it is, will be where will be and what will happen a little retailer will never know before to happen no matter how many courses will pay or how many guru's will pay to teach him or to make analyzes for him.
events in this world will always occur at some specific period of time, what''s the point now to say this will not work because new recession will come? is a bit funny you know.
how the recesion will affect me as long my lot is same like the day i started with deposit? you see one realistic 10k $ account who use 0.01 lot FOREVER. how any recession will ever affect this account based on the profit already accumulated at some point? in 50 days this made 10k pips,see the numbers. how about in one year?
what if till new recession will come i already accumulated 50k pips? what if i have accumulated 100k pips?
there is some math there you can beat so simple just with ''what if'' . If we do everything based on ''what if'' then most probably will go deep in the ground cos the meteorite will come sooner or later,maybe sooner than recession
I get it you have your way you need followers for your way and your threads,nothing bad no harm at all,but i feel talks with you here will never end as long you keep saying ''mind about fundamentals'' and we will say '' i dont care about fundamentals or world end'' . at least here we can agree
Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #202
  • Mar 31, 2019 4:52pm Mar 31, 2019 4:52pm
Quoting Husky77
mr Eco you must come up with a bit more than ''mind about fundamentals boys'' be careful for new crisis, this are just beer conversation subjects at least for me. show us some numbers to validate one strategy ,i dont mind if is a demo. I dont trade even when i am in manual trading with the fear like ''watch out cos disaster will happen'' ,no way. will not be first time when fundamentals ''professionals'' just give a little fear and help to retailers to have their stops hit and so another little portion from margin ... gone. I really dont belive...
I dont care about the red badge (never asked for it), or who follows me. I am not here for a popularity contest and frankly wouldn't care less if i had zero followers tomorrow. I love this business and as you know it's a lonely affair for us retail traders, that's why i am here although i do question this.

I do not want to disrupt this thread i merely added my opinion at the time, no harm intended. So with that i shall bow out and let you all be.
  • #203
  • Mar 31, 2019 4:55pm Mar 31, 2019 4:55pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote}I love this business and as you know it's a lonely affair for us retail traders, that's why i am here although i do question this.
see when my wife come home from work and me after 10 hours at charts already she say ''why you talk so much dear?'' cos i had no fucking conversation with this charts almost all day thats why dear
Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #204
  • Edited Apr 1, 2019 3:07am Mar 31, 2019 5:07pm | Edited Apr 1, 2019 3:07am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Calm down you don't need to bold anything - I said don't be offended but clearly, this whizzed right past your conscious mind. Just because you are profitable now doesn't mean the same applies tomorrow, after all, your test horizon doesn't even cover a full business cycle. In the professional side, they don't test strategies for less than 10 years because they need to validate its performance throughout multiple business cycles. This is important because market conditions do change throughout the cycle. You tell me to not discuss future...
Bolds are about highlight important comment. Not about offenses or defense. Anyway i still think it's an unbalance conversation. I talk with objective proofs like TE while you are in a very comfortable position putting in doubt all with ambiguous reasonings.

This thread is put in practice one idea. Not random idea. One have a base. Math and statistically. If we start to talk about if Aliens will arrive here then you can do one thing. Wait they arrive and post here: "I told you, end of world will fuck your idea" Regards...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #205
  • Mar 31, 2019 5:20pm Mar 31, 2019 5:20pm
If we are talking black swan events.

I think there is risk at any time you are trading. An example: The CHF drop was a whopping 3000 pips. If you were on the wrong side, you were screwed regardless of stop loss. How to avoid? Don't trade CHF related pairs or have such low effective leverage as to make trading a pointless exercise. Technically, I would not consider CHF drop a black swan event though, because the peg was going to need removing at some stage. It was just a question of when.

However, if we talk of a global black swan event where we see drops/rises in the same order of magnitude (or greater) across all symbols, and we have no way of anticipating when it will happen. How to avoid getting wiped then? Don't trade at all? I don't think there is a way to remain trading and simultaneously avoid the consequences of such extreme volatility, except maybe by using small leverage at all times in preparation. Anyone interested in <10% per year because of fear of a future unknown event?

Probably the only way to compensate is to continue using the maximum leverage your system can sustain, but take money out at regular intervals, and only trade a fraction of your capital. At least that's the only way I know to mitigate trading risk from extreme events. However, if I consider the rest of my capital that I'm not trading, then I'm really just using low leverage as an avoidance tactic anyway.

Probably a simplified way of looking at it, but it's somehow managed to work for me so far.

BTW: Great thread. Always good to see new ideas being explained in detail.
  • #206
  • Mar 31, 2019 5:30pm Mar 31, 2019 5:30pm
Quoting kenshin
If we are talking black swan events. I think there is risk at any time you are trading. An example: The CHF drop was a whopping 3000 pips. If you were on the wrong side, you were screwed regardless of stop loss. How to avoid? Don't trade CHF related pairs or have such low effective leverage as to make trading a pointless exercise. Technically, I would not consider CHF drop a black swan event though, because the peg was going to need removing at some stage. It was just a question of when. However, if we talk of a global black swan event where we...
Really you can't have 28 black swan at same moment then this limit a lot chances to be fucked. And as all crosses in forex are connected between them when one group go up other will go down. But as you told, if we will start to think about risk then better don't trade.

Thanks for your compliment, very appreciated
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #207
  • Mar 31, 2019 6:53pm Mar 31, 2019 6:53pm
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} Really you can't have 28 black swan at same moment then this limit a lot chances to be fucked. And as all crosses in forex are connected between them when one group go up other will go down. But as you told, if we will start to think about risk then better don't trade. Thanks for your compliment, very appreciated
Thanks to Aeseme EAX also has an exposure setting that would help to limit damage.
  • #208
  • Apr 1, 2019 1:25am Apr 1, 2019 1:25am
Quoting PipFlak
{quote} Thanks to Aeseme EAX also has an exposure setting that would help to limit damage.
It will be good if you explain how use it
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #209
  • Apr 1, 2019 1:39am Apr 1, 2019 1:39am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} It will be good if you explain how use it
Just input the max number of pairs with same currency to be traded at any one time.
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  • #210
  • Apr 1, 2019 7:25am Apr 1, 2019 7:25am
Quoting braintheboss
This thread is a place for discuss a different way to money management. ...
Great MM solution. Even if it turns out there will really be some problems every 12 years the way you are doing it it will still pay nicely before and after that. Using CSM has flaws long term so if you manage to get nice profits with low risk using CSM difference for entries then for sure it can work with other entry methods. And IMHO the lost trades that don't look like coming back can can also be treated in different ways. I know you were experimenting with using wider SL and time SL but per my expirience time SL can be also classified as bad close . I would like to try with very wide SL ...maybe 250, 500 or 750 pips ( depending on the pair of course).

It would really be interesting to see how things can be developed with ranging pairs only ( no majors) trading extremes back to the mean. I was once playing with the idea of trading them but didn't have the time yet to really start the experiment. Maybe it is time to dust my demo again.
PVSRA
  • #211
  • Apr 1, 2019 7:43am Apr 1, 2019 7:43am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Great MM solution. Even if it turns out there will really be some problems every 12 years the way you are doing it it will still pay nicely before and after that. Using CSM has flaws long term so if you manage to get nice profits with low risk using CSM difference for entries then for sure it can work with other entry methods. And IMHO the lost trades that don't look like coming back can can also be treated in different ways. I know you were experimenting with using wider SL and time SL but per my expirience time SL can be also classified...
Bad trades are not an issue since you apply rule about close them when trade loss is covered X times by profit. As system provide constant profit and bad trades are limited due win ratio difference, when you close a bad trade you are not losing profit. You are removing risk paying a small % fee. If you use 2 times profit then fee will be 50%. You still earn 50%

Use time have 2 goals:

1) Give time to constant profit to recover loss before close
2) Filter fake bad trades

For example i have GN/GA traded had -500p. Now are below -200p and maybe recover. This kind of trades should be marked as non recoverables but even using more relaxed rules dont affect profit overall

About your test idea any feedback is well receive
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #212
  • Apr 1, 2019 8:05am Apr 1, 2019 8:05am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} Bad trades are not an issue since you apply rule about close them when trade loss is covered X times by profit. As system provide constant profit and bad trades are limited due win ratio difference, when you close a bad trade you are not losing profit. You are removing risk paying a small % fee. If you use 2 times profit then fee will be 50%. You still earn 50% Use time have 2 goals: 1) Give time to constant profit to recover loss before close 2) Filter fake bad trades For example i have GN/GA traded had -500p. Now are below -200p...
Sure. GN/GA are beasts ...GN daily range 200 pips so this is not huge DD. Maybe you should also consider lot size variation- low ADR pairs double lot size and GN as is. Would be interesting if results would change. Not that they are not great already, but maybe as part of prevention . Because one thing is sure- even after 4 years good going we can never know what is next in the mkt.

So I will start demo test with 2 adjustments of your MM:
1. wide stop ( more mental then anything)
2. lot size variation ( ADR related)

Pairs ACad, NCad, AN, GCad, ECHF, EG.

It might come to occasional bad closes ( SL hit ) but they will be rare and win rate should be above 75%. 28 pairs diversification is of course better but I would like to combine trading to the mean method with your way of MM that's why I cannot trade trendy pairs in this experiment.
PVSRA
  • #213
  • Apr 1, 2019 8:31am Apr 1, 2019 8:31am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Sure. GN/GA are beasts ...GN daily range 200 pips so this is not huge DD. Maybe you should also consider lot size variation- low ADR pairs double lot size and GN as is. Would be interesting if results would change. Not that they are not great already, but maybe as part of prevention . Because one thing is sure- even after 4 years good going we can never know what is next in the mkt. So I will start demo test with 2 adjustments of your MM: 1. wide stop ( more mental then anything) 2. lot size variation ( ADR related) Pairs ACad, NCad, AN,...
As you consider better for your tests. Post progress here sometimes for have an idea
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #214
  • Apr 1, 2019 8:43am Apr 1, 2019 8:43am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} As you consider better for your tests. Post progress here sometimes for have an idea
Sure, will let the demo for this test public.

The resason why I start with 100K is to better use lot size variation ( cannot trade 0.025 lots etc...) . But I can see already now there will be a problem with reversion trades- they are not as often as using CSM ( trend trades). We will see, might take a while.
PVSRA
  • #215
  • Apr 1, 2019 10:32am Apr 1, 2019 10:32am
@ Braintheboss,

it would be good to know what are your entry rules for the orders..

I know you are using EAX.

Thank you very much for Reply.
renko
  • #216
  • Apr 1, 2019 10:45am Apr 1, 2019 10:45am
Quoting renkotop
@ Braintheboss, it would be good to know what are your entry rules for the orders.. I know you are using EAX. Thank you very much for Reply. renko
In Dashboard TZ thread I normally post things about my current system setup. Basically a mix of 5 PINs groups with some MTF mix inside every group:

1) CSM ( currency strength )
2) SnR ( fractal )
3) Pivots ( I posted tool in Dashboard TZ thread )
4) StochRsi ( its a port of my manual strategy )
5) ADX ( MAs crossovers and bands )

And the brain: DashPIN

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Try don't lose pants never...
  • #217
  • Apr 1, 2019 10:51am Apr 1, 2019 10:51am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} In Dashboard TZ thread I normally post things about my current system setup. Basically a mix of 5 PINs groups with some MTF mix inside every group: 1) CSM ( currency strength ) 2) SnR ( fractal ) 3) Pivots ( I posted tool in Dashboard TZ thread ) 4) StochRsi ( its a port of my manual strategy ) 5) ADX ( MAs crossovers and bands ) And the brain: DashPIN {image}
Thank you, I' ll try to find them...
Best regards,
renko
  • #218
  • Apr 1, 2019 10:59am Apr 1, 2019 10:59am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} In Dashboard TZ thread I normally post things about my current system setup. Basically a mix of 5 PINs groups with some MTF mix inside every group: 1) CSM ( currency strength ) 2) SnR ( fractal ) 3) Pivots ( I posted tool in Dashboard TZ thread ) 4) StochRsi ( its a port of my manual strategy ) 5) ADX ( MAs crossovers and bands ) And the brain: DashPIN {image}
Ok, so your risk / return ratio will be hard to beat. Pairs and methods diversification is definitly half of your success. Very strong trading plan.
I doubt there is much room to improve for you. Maybe only lot size variation based on pairs ADR. I seriously think you nailed all the rest .
PVSRA
  • #219
  • Apr 1, 2019 11:04am Apr 1, 2019 11:04am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Ok, so your risk / return ratio will be hard to beat. Pairs and methods diversification is definitly half of your success. Very strong trading plan. I doubt there is much room to improve for you. Maybe only lot size variation based on pairs ADR. I seriously think you nailed all the rest .
System still suffer some problems but works well with Stack MM because is tuned for it. Basically I setup system for have a constant in/out cycle and be sure profit closes are enough big for have a favorable pips per trade

Entries are not fixed ( I can have different combinations as I showed in my other thread ) then I diversify trades to different market behaviour in a random way. DashPin is who manage this. Anyway for be a 60% win ratio system performs very stable
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #220
  • Apr 1, 2019 11:12am Apr 1, 2019 11:12am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} System still suffer some problems but works well with Stack MM because is tuned for it. Basically I setup system for have a constant in/out cycle and be sure profit closes are enough big for have a favorable pips per trade Entries are not fixed ( I can have different combinations as I showed in my other thread ) then I diversify trades to different market behaviour in a random way. DashPin is who manage this. Anyway for be a 60% win ratio system performs very stable
Sure. You probably started this thred to fine tune stack MM further. Maybe new ideas come in. Maybe 1% of them are good and it pays back to you. Okay, so there is no other way for me to trade more then one method manualy too otherwise we will not be able to compare if cleaning up red trades more often and lot size variation helps or not...because my cycles will be way slower then yours.
PVSRA
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