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Stack MM

  • #181
  • Mar 31, 2019 9:24am Mar 31, 2019 9:24am
As I explained time ago, stack cycle have a inverse effect comparing with traditional MM. Stack fills faster while profit grows slower. In traditional MM profit grows faster but not constant due losses are digested for fast closes
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Capture shows this clear. This effect is still visible in second trading week but as shows second capture Stack MM constant profit and a slowdown in DD growth ( stabilization phase ) makes differences accelerates going down
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Other view is see effect per trade

Stack MM growth faster ( half trades made 1000p more ) but temporal DD "hides" this profit. Anyway we see most of that temporal bad trades don't affect much to profit ( around 2/3 for fade only 1000p )

"SL" test it have serious problems for growth. This is because new trades having a low win ratio (55% ) don't guarantee new profit and make we have many possibilities new trades go in DD too. If you check current opened trades you will get a new surprise:

43 trades ( Stack ) vs 42 trades ( SL )

If you close bad trades fast you expect a lower number of trades but as many other "facts" this affirmation don't have any real base. As Stack MM trades have long life duration with a max limit in their loss, new bad trades are reduced highly while new added DD of new bad trades are compensated for fluctuations of old stack trades

Next post we will see a prediction of performance with both systems for see last 2 hidden effects
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Try don't lose pants never...
  • #182
  • Mar 31, 2019 9:55am Mar 31, 2019 9:55am
While classic MM have an oscillation between week profit ( it can be negative some times ), Stack MM negative oscillation is always above last week balance. This is because when DD stabilize inside a range, it can't growth more making all profit is net. Then if every close is net profit your balance/equity always will go higher then your previous profit.
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And now we will make a future prediction taking last week performance. Its only indicative for our educative purpose and its not as must be calculated really. We will assume Stack test DD is stable at current level then after now all profit will be net ( really DD still growing but slowdown much )

"SL" test week performance was around +300p
"Stack" test week performance was around +900p

We finished second week Current profit are:

SL: 2000p
Stack: 1300p

We see out projection with last week performance

Week 3:
SL: 2000 + 300 = 2300p
Stack: 1300 + 900 = 2200p

Week 4
SL: 2300 + 300 = 2600
Stack: 2200 + 900 = 3100p

Week 5
SL: 2600+ 300 = 2900p
Stack: 3100 + 900 = 4000p

Week 6
SL: 2900 + 300 = 3200p
Stack: 4000 + 900 = 4900p

Week 7
SL: 3200 + 300 = 3500p
Stack: 4900 + 900 = 5800p

Week 8
SL: 3500 + 300 = 3800p
Stack: 5800 + 900 = 6700p

After 6 weeks from now we got 76% more profit using Stack MM. And this with a safer risk management because DD will not growth since is stabilized due a stack cleaning cycle
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #183
  • Mar 31, 2019 10:01am Mar 31, 2019 10:01am
With all this explanations we can finish Stack MM base and why all "facts" I posted in this thread are confirmed with practical tests ( TE ). Now we are ready for apply some strategies for manage non recoverable trades. I will talk about this in next posts

As final comment I will post how is doing thread TE for get an idea in longer tests how develops Stack MM
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I think numbers speaks alone but numbers still growing since I opened thread
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #184
  • Mar 31, 2019 10:40am Mar 31, 2019 10:40am
Quoting braintheboss
While classic MM have an oscillation between week profit ( it can be negative some times ), Stack MM negative oscillation is always above last week balance. This is because when DD stabilize inside a range, it can't growth more making all profit is net. Then if every close is net profit your balance/equity always will go higher then your previous profit. {image} {image} And now we will make a future prediction taking last week performance. Its only indicative for our educative purpose and its not as must be calculated really. We will assume Stack...
Perfect anaylysis!
  • #185
  • Mar 31, 2019 11:08am Mar 31, 2019 11:08am
In this test i used different type of exit strategies while entry main rules didnt changed and always had same base. since March 18 i started apply no bad closes for this tests,and look what happen.
DD is already stable and from now profit will only accumulate day by day and like this with profit grow then will leave behind the DD amount.
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Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #186
  • Mar 31, 2019 11:20am Mar 31, 2019 11:20am
with every new day of profit accumulated then the DD will be surpassed because will meet one equilibrium point.
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Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #187
  • Mar 31, 2019 11:53am Mar 31, 2019 11:53am
I have a question, when, not if, there is another event like 2007 where for example EJ dropped from 169.70 approx down 114 and then continued lower to 95.80 approx over several years. If you don't close bad trades and have no idea how far things can go, how would you achieve equilibum?

It is these market events that will make it difficult if not impossible for a strategy like this that might spend years building up to lead to complete and total collapse, perhaps even owing the broker in the end. I am all for out the box unique thinking but i just can't see how anyone can accommodate such events with a system that doesn't apply stops.
  • #188
  • Edited 12:50pm Mar 31, 2019 12:13pm | Edited 12:50pm
Quoting EcoTrader
I have a question, when, not if, there is another event like 2007 where for example EJ dropped from 169.70 approx down 114 and then continued lower to 95.80 approx over several years. If you don't close bad trades and have no idea how far things can go, how would you achieve equilibum? It is these market events that will make it difficult if not impossible for a strategy like this that might spend years building up to lead to complete and total collapse, perhaps even owing the broker in the end. I am all for out the box unique thinking but i just...
the idea behind this is how you can achieve one balance amount in closed trades as net profit while still keep some who are in loss.
if you go and look at Brain TE then your answer is here https://www.forexfactory.com/braintheboss#acct.13 you can easy figure at this point really to be affected your deposit then WW III must start probably. and of course there is another option that depend on each trader personal approach on his charts,and that is at one point where the equilibrium point is already overpassed and your net profit is way above your DD... then most probably you can close any bad trades you wish.
i will save you some time and i will post some trades from that test who might make you think... different,look at the rolling time of this trades.most of traders already have exit on such trades in loss.

Now we are all traders around ,of course all kind of events may happen,some worse than the other,but such events never happen so often to affect at least a medium plan you may have in trading. cos otherwise why to start trading and risk your money as long you have fears everyday some disaster may happen and wipe you out at daily basis? I do believe really big big and disastrous events may happen,but looking at the digital world we are living with all the information possibilities then you may be aware in decent time and act and save yourself in way or another.
If you use SL just because you have fear of any bad event will help you? I dont think so,and then trading forex is not the way to follow.
Just think you use a decent SL for example lets say 100 pips, then a flash crash comes and boom 500-1000 pips against you,will your sl save you with a flash crash spike? I dont think broker will allow it to save you. so you get burned with a bigger loss than your SL. but what if you dont have SL and your margin allows you to go in loss 5000 pips? take as example last flash crash in AJ for example,how SL can save you with a 600 spike? where is price now?
I said to look at Brain test because thats the place where this strategy is used and at this point the net is at 10k pips in les than 2 months, so from this point i dont think any flash crash or any event may bother me as long will not be so big to start eat from initial deposit. and if something like in 2007 may start then be sure i have time to get out from market for good.


wish i had more english knowledge sometime to be able to explain things better. so excuse my english as i not my main language.
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Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #189
  • Mar 31, 2019 1:05pm Mar 31, 2019 1:05pm
Quoting Husky77
{quote} the idea behind this is how you can achieve one balance amount in closed trades as net profit while still keep some who are in loss. if you go and look at Brain TE then your answer is here https://www.forexfactory.com/braintheboss#acct.13 you can easy figure at this point really to be affected your deposit then WW III must start probably. and of course there is another option that depend on each trader personal approach on his charts,and that is at one point where the equilibrium point is already overpassed and your net profit...

It sure is an interesting concept, but i am sceptical how a trader can adapt positions when events, which don't need to necessarily be ww3, can move price thousands of pips. We all know brokers adjust margin requirements in times of high volatility so having large numbers of positions suddenly squeezes an account in addition to massive relative drawdown. I would have expected if such a strategy was successful, that I would have seen in the millions of trade records i have worked with in the professional side. It's undoubtedly due to the risk of ruin element of this strategy. Someone on this thread mentioned this approach to trading has been used for the last 4 years but that's not even half of the current business cycle, so I guess you will find out in the next 18 months when recession hits if the changing market conditions and volatility effects the "equilibrium” effect.

One more question. Why develop a high risk strategy in the first place when there are very profitable alternatives that carry less risk? For the record I think traditional approaches involving risk reward is useless so i am not referring to a traditional approach.
  • #190
  • Mar 31, 2019 2:04pm Mar 31, 2019 2:04pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} It sure is an interesting concept, but i am sceptical how a trader can adapt positions when events, which don't need to necessarily be ww3, can move price thousands of pips. We all know brokers adjust margin requirements in times of high volatility so having large numbers of positions suddenly squeezes an account in addition to massive relative drawdown. I would have expected if such a strategy was successful, that I would have seen in the millions of trade records i have worked with in the professional side. It's undoubtedly due to the...
I understand your point of view and you know like the word as many of us as many different views on the matter.
Here we dont develop the entry strategy because thats already in place and does well,we start talks about this called ''Stack MM'' from the point where trader already found his way in entry strategy and is looking to maximize the profit from every trade if is possible. For me at this point no matter what event may happen i consider you can still have decent time to get out of the market really safe. I showed you that simple test account where strategy work ,look what lots are traded in that account ,look where is the profit at this point and imagine one 10k pips negative evetn may occur. will that wipe my account? NO. then i will ask you one more question : will this negative event with minus 10k pips in my account will be a flash crash spike? of course will not,cos such event take some time to develop in the charts and still give your enough space to decide what to do.
I am talking here with simple TE test example and there are questions with simple logic answers :
whats the lot risk used in this acc?
where is acc balance now?
where is acc DD now?
what is initial deposit?
what can happen tomorrow to wipe out the 10k pips gained?
what can happen tomorrow to wipe out 20k pips? how about 30k? will my account survive?
how can any event wipe such an amount of pips as long we trade 28 different pairs and not 28 X EURUSD? or not 28 GBPUSD? or not 28 X AUDCAD?
the idea behind the entry strategy + exit Brain wanted to make is to have something that you dont even care about any daily fundamentals, I dont care about brexit,i dont care about any NFP or all those regular financial data who wipe out traders accounts at weekly and daily basis.
You see that tests was doing pips in the tumultuously of brexit,didnt even care about the votes about the rumors ... nothing.
And last but not less important you and many others who may have some thoughts i dont know ... must acknowledge one thing, there is nothing for sell here,is just an idea from one guy who share it and expect feedback in a way or another.
Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #191
  • Mar 31, 2019 2:07pm Mar 31, 2019 2:07pm
Quoting EcoTrader
I have a question, when, not if, there is another event like 2007 where for example EJ dropped from 169.70 approx down 114 and then continued lower to 95.80 approx over several years. If you don't close bad trades and have no idea how far things can go, how would you achieve equilibum? It is these market events that will make it difficult if not impossible for a strategy like this that might spend years building up to lead to complete and total collapse, perhaps even owing the broker in the end. I am all for out the box unique thinking but i just...
I agree some trades never return. But system allows bad closes. I call non recoverable trades. But as I commented in last post I will start to explain strategies for do it ( I have a few rules for do it )

PD: About name test is because my TE don't allow any bad close ( but as test I have some mistakes when I change something ). I always search limits for understand better how works ideas
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #192
  • Mar 31, 2019 2:26pm Mar 31, 2019 2:26pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} It sure is an interesting concept, but i am sceptical how a trader can adapt positions when events, which don't need to necessarily be ww3, can move price thousands of pips. We all know brokers adjust margin requirements in times of high volatility so having large numbers of positions suddenly squeezes an account in addition to massive relative drawdown. I would have expected if such a strategy was successful, that I would have seen in the millions of trade records i have worked with in the professional side. It's undoubtedly due to the...
Main goal of this MM is fade trading mistakes. For improve it I needed long time while I made tests. I started 4 years ago, when I started to be profitable as trader. I have some old post showing some of that tests. Longer was 1 year length ( really 9 months because last 3 months I didn't trade it ). I started with 25€ and i made around 600€ ( more 2000% ).

Now I use it in my manual trading but adapted due I open very little trades. I explained my manual rules when I started this thread. Its a flexible MM then everyone must take base rules and adapt to their systems.

I understand its hard believe in this kind of MM but numbers don't lie and for retails traders can be a new way to improve their results and be reliable in long term.

But its better use this MM in auto systems because you can use a constant in/out trades cycle. Really at this stage Stack MM is adapted for auto systems because is my personal goal. I want have a system trade for me while I enjoy the life. Then I need break many classic "facts"
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #193
  • Mar 31, 2019 2:32pm Mar 31, 2019 2:32pm
In his last post Husky told some thing you look forgot: "how can any event wipe such an amount of pips as long we trade 28 different pairs and not 28 X EURUSD? or not 28 GBPUSD? or not 28 X AUDCAD?"

At least if you use auto systems, trades hedge minimize effect of flash crashes. Anyway TE system love crazy markets. I passed all crashes from Oct 2018 ( when I started system test ) with success. I explained I had change TickMill account to ICMarkets due to very bad demo servers

PD: Anyway we will have unexpected movements next months then we will see if really Stack MM manages this well. Really current market is hard for any auto system. Or at least many of them
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #194
  • Mar 31, 2019 3:03pm Mar 31, 2019 3:03pm
Quoting Husky77
{quote} how can any event wipe such an amount of pips as long we trade 28 different pairs and not 28 X EURUSD? or not 28 GBPUSD? or not 28 X AUDCAD?
But that's where you are wrong. In major events there are flows out of risk assets and into safe havens. Taking NBC Dev Juan as an example of current open positions reflected back to the 2007 credit crisis. Your open positions would have reflected a significant amount of drawdown on the account with 26 positions sitting with major drawdowns, 12 in profit but nowhere near the scale of the losses and approx 3 positions would be sitting within a relatively small range. This is just an exercise of looking at charts at 2007 against the open positions in this account. Just because the account is spread over 28 pairs doesn't imply it is balanced enough to protect or produce a profit. This is an illusion that might showcase a semblance of protection when the market is in an upcycle, or in an isolated risk event like Brexit, but when major turbulence comes and trillions are shifted with immense volatility, it just won't stack up. Those 26 positions you have that would be in the red are shorting safe havens so would literally be like standing in front of a train.

Quoting Husky77
{quote}
You see that tests was doing pips in the tumultuously of brexit
Brexit is an isolated event so your test only shows that it can handle an isolated event and not a global event that 2007 was. At the end of the day, we are all doing this to make money and survive to make more but your open positions would have wiped out this account or at least put you back many years and likely affecting income you might rely on.

Quoting Husky77
{quote}
there is nothing for sell here,is just an idea from one guy who share it and expect feedback in a way or another.
I never suggested anything being sold and know full well it is just an ideas thread. You have been hanging out in the scammer's thread far too long Husky. As this is a debate about an idea I am merely offering a facet of that debate. You see this entire thread is sugar-coating a theme that showcases something that isn't reality in the professional world because it leads to disaster when the shit hits the fan. Survival is the first rule of trading we all have to aspire towards. What is the point of building an account if the exposure to the market one-day will mean the complete and total destruction of the account? Global debt today is exponentially larger than it was in the financial crisis and the next major event will make 2007 look like a warmup.

Please don't take this the wrong way, I am just discussing the idea here so don't be offended.
  • #195
  • Mar 31, 2019 3:15pm Mar 31, 2019 3:15pm
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} Main goal of this MM is fade trading mistakes.
It is an interesting concept but I do believe your time horizon of the tests is a sleeping giant of a flaw in the strategy. It is interesting you mention trading mistakes, however. New traders make genuine naive mistakes, experience traders should only be making few mistakes due to our human nature. Anything else is really just a function of missing key information in the decision-making process which isn't a mistake.
  • #196
  • Mar 31, 2019 3:20pm Mar 31, 2019 3:20pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} But that's where you are wrong. In major events there are flows out of risk assets and into safe havens. Taking NBC Dev Juan as an example of current open positions reflected back to the 2007 credit crisis. Your open positions would have reflected a significant amount of drawdown on the account with 26 positions sitting with major drawdowns, 12 in profit but nowhere near the scale of the losses and approx 3 positions would be sitting within a relatively small range. This is just an...
It don't exist an absolute truth in real life. All is relative. Maybe in some things you are right but its wrong thing this MM works by luck. Even system. Nobody can have full control about future events and a bad flash crash as CHF can destroy all. But that event was the worst of Forex and not only destroyed traders accounts. Brokers too

About current DD I explained what base sustain risk management. Thread TE still don't show any decrease performance even last changes in setup decreased profit to half. Time will tell but I'm sure about I'm posting here. Maybe hundreds of hours making this give me that confidence
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #197
  • Mar 31, 2019 3:20pm Mar 31, 2019 3:20pm
an idea for your idea

Take a look at deep learning and AI as a mechanism that inputs real-time market information (not price or chart related but things like correlations, vix, and news) and adapts to protect in a major event, potentially even reversing positions to account for risk-off flows. You see the problem with this strategy is the ticking time bomb of a global event but if you could build something to accommodate that then for all its craziness, you might have something interesting.
  • #198
  • Mar 31, 2019 3:23pm Mar 31, 2019 3:23pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} But that's where you are wrong. In major events there are ....
I was just feel the need to specify about nothing commercial,and is easy to see as there's a big OPEN for any talks to add or remove what need to be done so.
takes a bit more to be offended dont worry,i learned with time to appreciate same way opposite views same as the ones who agree,cos from such talks great ways might be developed,if we all agree on all points of view then will be a disaster cos we will all fail at same time same way. so no worry.
this is a baby test project still, we have one main base entry we work on and only improvements we made are really like here&there while the base is always same.
for me this can work smooth and i keep the idea to squeeze as much possible in the time between those great events you mention,as we are still lucky they happen not so often at monthly basis and they occur at certain period in some years. then between this we can do whatever we can ,for me using SL was always a disaster and this because i did a lot of research of past weeks in the weekend and saw so many trades closed due to SL who later and more later (of course) came into BE or even decent profit. in the end is a matter of time and of view based on experience of each trader.
at this point for me is gain to have a system that open trades and doesnt care about Brexit for example,why? because most of traders are wiped out by this ''isolated'' event. and until the financial crisis will come i will probably not trade that period of time and i will do other things,when then things will calm down back to charts again with no fear.
you see now that account test TE,lets see where will be before Christmas holidays this year how and if will survive like it is now. at that time probably many views will change.
Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #199
  • Mar 31, 2019 3:25pm Mar 31, 2019 3:25pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} It is an interesting concept but I do believe your time horizon of the tests is a sleeping giant of a flaw in the strategy. It is interesting you mention trading mistakes, however. New traders make genuine naive mistakes, experience traders should only be making few mistakes due to our human nature. Anything else is really just a function of missing key information in the decision-making process which isn't a mistake.
I'm retail profitable trader and as human I still make mistakes. Then as all retails I try adapt to event affects this business. But discuss me about future reliability without any data sustain your affirmations is at least weird. I have a TE, I have some post about explaining my view about how works this internally...

Maybe you are right at the end and this will fail but I ask you one thing. What will happens if this shows be solid and not fail?

PD: For me worked last years, why will not work for others if they apply it well?
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #200
  • Mar 31, 2019 3:57pm Mar 31, 2019 3:57pm
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} I'm retail profitable trader. As all retails I try adapt to event affects this business. But discuss me about future reliability without any data sustain your affirmations is at least weird. I have a TE, I have some post about explaining my view about how works this internally. Maybe you are right at the end and this will fail but I ask you one thing. What will happens if this shows be solid and not fail?
Calm down you don't need to bold anything - I said don't be offended but clearly, this whizzed right past your conscious mind.

Just because you are profitable now doesn't mean the same applies tomorrow, after all, your test horizon doesn't even cover a full business cycle. In the professional side, they don't test strategies for less than 10 years because they need to validate its performance throughout multiple business cycles. This is important because market conditions do change throughout the cycle. You tell me to not discuss future reliability while you haven't even scoped your tests on a full business cycle and completely ignore major global events that do happen. So who is being weird?

I did an exercise of overlaying the account you have been talking about with the 2007 credit crisis and 26 positions would have had to endure drawdown so significant that the entire strategy would have been unbalanced. While I admit those exact ratios of positions will be different, it doesn't distract from the fact that 28 pairs across tens of positions will ultimately include shorting safe havens with sufficient quantity to make the system inoperable for a period of time or even the account destroyed. This represents sufficient data make an assertion on the future reliability - no idea where you get weird from that must be your sense of humour, or most likely a defensive response to me raising valid points you do not like - odd since you love handing out layers and layers of abuse on other members of the forum in the scammers cuddle group.

"What will happens if this shows be solid and not fail?"

What will happen if you build a sense of confidence and rely on the income and down the road it all goes up in smoke? food for thought and something every trader should always consider no matter how confident they are.
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