Trades and Stuff

Here is a first batch, taken randomly. Will do some indices, metals and lower timeframes later.

This is Dax M15 as a standalone because it deserves it.

You're a product of your training

"Chasing what can't be done is madness. But the base person is unable to do anything else."

— Marcus Aurelius, Meditations, 5.17

"A dog that's allowed to chase cars will chase cars. A child who is never given any boundaries will become spoiled. An investor without discipline is not an investor - he's a gambler. A mind that isn't in control of itself, that doesn't understand its power to regulate itself, will be jerked around by external events and unquestioned impulses.

That can't be how you'd like tomorrow to go. So you must be aware of that. You must put in place training and habits now to replace ignorance and ill discipline. Only then you will begin to behave and act differently. Only then you will stop seeking the impossible, the short-sighted, and the unnecessary."

— Ryan Holiday, The Daily Stoic

A few more charts on geometry and measured moves.

Hard to take a strong side on indices right now. The moves can be seen as somehow corrective, especially for Dax, but there are an increasing number of retail traders who are short and as much as it looks tempting, I would not jump the gun to sell. I guess I will wait for either a confimation of continuation up or an impulse move to the downside to join whatever team is winning. Not enough evidence to make a case either way for now. Fundamentally the yen is quite weak with a dovish BoJ and possible growing easing, so if all should turn deep in the next few weeks it would require some serious risk-off sentiment.

Dow: Two above zones obliterated and H4 trendline nicely broken with a supportive monthly close.

Starting to watch PA on the Dow for potential shorts.

Almost there. Today's move will have kicked retail bears in the balls and we have clear targets on the downside for short term sells.

EDIT: gotta have a bit more patient. Looks like we won't see the small rejection today. We are entering a potential reversal area though. Wait and see. Counter trend anyway, retracement opportunity if any.

Here it comes, late. Let's see if it can hold.

WTI and a few stocks still have room on the upside before reaching friction zone so until this plays out I'll be cautious. Could be lucky but timing is a bit off for now.

It's been holding overnight. Maybe, just maybe, will we see a small correction.

Dax getting ready while Dow holding the zone, getting interesting, let's see what the afternoon will bring.

Spot on.

How the big machine works. +28.6% today.

Dax m15. This is stupid.

There could be some nice opportunities on the Dax today.

"Trust, but verify."

— Russian proverb

Less is more

"Don't act grudgingly, selfishly, without due diligence, or to be a contrarian. Don't overdress your thoughts in fine language. Don't be a person of too many words and too many deeds. Be cheerful, not wanting outside help or the relief others mind bring. A person needs to stand on their own, not be propped up."

— Marcus Aurelius, Meditations, 3.5

Markets start to get in sync again. The picture is becoming clearer. Arguments for a correction in indices and Yen pairs are getting stronger. The US10Y is on its way. When it reaches its destination, it will be time to look for yen strength. Indices might get a high five. In the face. With a chair. The current moves up could turn retail sellers into buyers at high prices.

But not quite yet. #speculation of course. Market does what market wants. Market mean.



Only positions open at the moment are Dax longs, which should be closed at some point during the week.

All Dax longs closed. It has more upside but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.