What is to expect with US CPI? | Forex Factory

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What is to expect with US CPI?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Oct 18, 2006 3:00am Oct 17, 2006 9:10pm | Edited Oct 18, 2006 3:00am
CPI Estimate: -0.3%
Core Estimate: 0.2%

Other related data:
Retail Sales: -0.4%
Less Auto: -0.5% (less fuel, +0.2%?? - can anyone verify this?)

PPI: -1.3%
Core PPI: 0.6%

RS-CPI Correlation?
Mar 2006: Core Retail Sales down to -0.4%, core CPI down to 0.1%
Apr 2006: Core Retail Sales up to 0.4%, core CPI up to 0.3%
May 2006: Core Retail Sales up to 0.7%, core CPI up to 0.3%
Jun 2006: cant find Retail Sales number, core CPI up to 0.3%
Jul 2006: Core Retail Sales up to 0.4%, core CPI up to 0.3%
* Aug 2006: Core Retail Sales up to 1.0%, core CPI down to 0.2%
Sep 2006: Core Retail Sales down to 0.2%, core CPI down to 0.2%

* Only last August was the correlation not valid.
Do note that Core Retail Sales includes Fuel sales, Core CPI does not. And in July/August, Fuel cost rose.

This month, Retail Sales excluding Fuel was positive; will Core CPI go up as well? Many were expecting a 0.3% CPI.
  • #2
  • Oct 18, 2006 5:22am Oct 18, 2006 5:22am
I feel $- for the moment.
I will place one stop above the market on GBP/USD prior to the release of data and hope for 0.1% core CPI
If the number turn out to be $+ (like 0.3%) I will fade.
  • #3
  • Oct 18, 2006 6:10am Oct 18, 2006 6:10am
i did sell gbp/usd at 18700 ,SL : 18730 ,TP : 18650/18600
  • #4
  • Oct 18, 2006 7:32am Oct 18, 2006 7:32am
looks like we have some good dollar strength here
Relax and be happy.
  • #5
  • Oct 18, 2006 7:43am Oct 18, 2006 7:43am
How do you guys trade the CPI ?
The CPI come to support $
The core CPI come to in line with expectation. Now I have a position :
Short GBP/USD 1.8704 TP 1.8650

Now, it seems like dollar positive and supported by the BoE-interest-rate-kept... I wonder how far this pair can move...
Save trading : Caught up with the trend...
Have a nice trading...
Hello World
  • #6
  • Oct 18, 2006 7:44am Oct 18, 2006 7:44am
Seems that way, I don't trade news, but watch it for fun to see the confusion ... core data was stable, as expected, but housing starts up which was above expectation, this could be the "drop of the hat" many were suggesting .. who knows.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #7
  • Edited 7:50am Oct 18, 2006 7:47am | Edited 7:50am
Quoting Akuma99
Seems that way, I don't trade news, but watch it for fun to see the confusion ... core data was stable, as expected, but housing starts up which was above expectation, this could be the "drop of the hat" many were suggesting .. who knows.
You should know, that CPI weaker than last month means supporting the currency movement. CPI moves on the opposite of PPI.
CPI comes to support $ and while CPI core comes to be in line with expectation. I think this is really support dollar. Plus, BoE decision to keep rate unchanged...This will further push the dollar higher right?!
For addition, I think the housing starts going up is also a support for dollar. It means US economy is better-started. What do you think?Do you have any opinion or analysis for us?
Hello World
  • #8
  • Oct 18, 2006 7:49am Oct 18, 2006 7:49am
Traded US CPI.... +15
Attached Image
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #9
  • Oct 18, 2006 7:53am Oct 18, 2006 7:53am
Quoting MaXeY
Traded US CPI.... +15
I think you shouldn't be that hasty to exit a profitable trade, should you?

How if the pair continue to go as far as it could because of another supporting data ?
I think this happened today, US CPI supported by BoE decision and then, the core comes in line with expectation....
Hello World
  • #10
  • Oct 18, 2006 8:02am Oct 18, 2006 8:02am
Nice trade for just about anyone today. Even a straddle would have worked.

But I got in @ 8704

Took 3 lots @ 10 pips
Have 2 lots @ 11 pips locked in with a trail on them

Nice Trade opportunity today

Hope all went well for every one else!!!

DC
p.s. Nice Trade MaXey
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #11
  • Oct 18, 2006 8:39am Oct 18, 2006 8:39am
well i am short EURUSD on a swing trade so i was happy to see the market react like it did. Core CPI, which is of most importance because oil prices have been so volatile, came in as expected and the dollar rallied. may also have to do with housing. not real sure, but what i do know is that the dollar bulls are showing their face again after a two day break. im still confident in dollar long positions.
Relax and be happy.
  • #12
  • Oct 18, 2006 8:46am Oct 18, 2006 8:46am
Quoting merlin
well i am short EURUSD on a swing trade so i was happy to see the market react like it did. Core CPI, which is of most importance because oil prices have been so volatile, came in as expected and the dollar rallied. may also have to do with housing. not real sure, but what i do know is that the dollar bulls are showing their face again after a two day break. im still confident in dollar long positions.
I agree with you merlin...I think the USD will continue to strengthen over the next couple of month's.

I also think that we have basically seen a retrace, or correction over the last couple of days. Some would call it taking profit. But I see the overall direction at this point as Bullish USD.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #13
  • Oct 18, 2006 8:47am Oct 18, 2006 8:47am
I had the worst CPI expectation. My daughter got a bad fever and it took me just now to get home from a doctor checkup.

Looking at the chart; WOW; it was a straddle killer! It reversed to ground 0 before moving down again.. It should have been a very good way to fade it instead.

Too bad, I came 60 minutes late or I could have shorted GBP...

Oh well.. better to attend to a sick daughter than sniping some pips.

To all who made money keep it up. To those who did not, survive for another day!
  • #14
  • Oct 18, 2006 8:51am Oct 18, 2006 8:51am
Quoting BurgerKing
I had the worst CPI expectation. My daughter got a bad fever and it took me just now to get home from a doctor checkup.

Looking at the chart; WOW; it was a straddle killer! It reversed to ground 0 before moving down again.. It should have been a very good way to fade it instead.

Too bad, I came 60 minutes late or I could have shorted GBP...

Oh well.. better to attend to a sick daughter than sniping some pips.

To all who made money keep it up. To those who did not, survive for another day!
It all depends on how you put your staddle together BK. I did not personally straddle but as I watched it. It would have been good if you were conservative and straddled about 15 pips away from price. Which for the CPI is not a bad straddle strategy.

Way to many numbers coming out at once...esp. with the housing report to.

Hope your daughter is ok...

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #15
  • Last Post: Feb 25, 2010 12:46pm Feb 25, 2010 12:46pm
Probably
bringing order to chaos....
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