Journey to consistency

bulls!
where you at 223....

Paul Valéry: "Everything simple is false. Everything which is complex is unusable"

In modern discourse, the paradox was articulated by John M. Dutton and William H. Starbuck[2] "As a model of a complex system becomes more complete, it becomes less understandable. Alternatively, as a model grows more realistic, it also becomes just as difficult to understand as the real-world processes it represents"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonini%27s_paradox

“The Tao that can be told is not the eternal Tao.
The name that can be named is not the eternal name.
The nameless is the beginning of heaven and earth.
The named is the mother of ten thousand things.
Ever desireless, one can see the mystery.
Ever desiring, one can see the manifestations.
These two spring from the same source but differ in name;
this appears as darkness.
Darkness within darkness.
The gate to all mystery.”

― Laozi, Tao Te Ching

when I first discovered charts/trading/speculation I was curious
as I started demoing I realized I could do this
as more time went on I realized that it was impossible!
at that juncture you're only left with 3 choice a. quit b. keep on doing the same trying to simplify without understanding the complexity c. choose the hardest and most probably the only way to actually understand the complexity is to study, study, and some more studying from the right sources
now I've arrived at a place where I think to myself this is not completely impossible, but "ALMOST" impossible.

I guess that's a progress.
more books to read and charts to study on the weekends.

you can do it .. but please do not overcomplicate it

feels good to be actually able to follow the flow for once!!

overall only 1 trade closed in a loss out of 4 but it was purely by own fault because I wasn't so sure!!! BUT there was no technical indication that it was going going against me.

traded the trough R rejection then bought it from peak and the reaction on 5min...

on top of horizontal peak and trough S&R levels I also was looking out for any rejection or test of diagonal trend line.

it was a bullish day on 1h and 5min but for some reason the volatility was just not there considering yesterday Nikkei had a blast I don't think that's too surprising nevertheless Nikkei moved down about 60pips and up about 40pips so again normal day for Nikkei within two hours after Tokyo open..

there we go reached my target.

I'll do better tomorrow !

there's always a tomorrow as long as your account is alive and kicking.

on top of what I already have going I think adding pattern recognition will be a good addition to my form reading toolbox.
I don't think for now I'm going to trade them but as I get better at reading form I think I'll be able to fit it into my MO there's always a room for improvement!

tricky situation.
I played a bull second entry lost some.

gotta re evaluate!!

you're telling me I must finish the remaining 100pages of the book and reread?!

gotcha.

down -30pips
not bad considering how difficult it was for me to follow as patterns emerged!!!

but I played a bull I just wasn't so patient to keep that trade going otherwise would have been a +net day.

if I"m not mistaken this is a diamond top overlapping symmetrical triangle sandwiched between 788R and 773S but on 5min at 771 I see a possible reversal down to up not 100% on top but is there anything that's a 100% in life and in trading I'll just have to wait and see if market itself confirms my observations!

now there's a conflict.

771 again.
diamond top.

up.

so this is how you can anticipate a breakout of a pattern to a certain direction.
prior to yesterday I kept getting the timing wrong but the direction right

yesterday I did good with both direction and timing, you get your timing wrong when you can't read the tape (also direction) but timing is everything.
I think I'm doing relatively good as far as progression is concerned.

as I told myself yesterday I can't leave pattern recognition out of the equation I must develop the skill to anticipate a certain pattern formations.

possible S&R, direction, and form reading on 5min *pattern recognition included* - I still need more practice on the latter but overall I'm feeling positive.

and I need to keep the trade going unless I see a good reason to exit out of my position today I had none to my second and third long!

Direction
Timing of the entries
Exits

Assessment of the terrain
Ability to flow and read the flow

Levels
Patterns

Discipline
Use of resources

This month I haven't gone against 1h trend but I kept getting at the wrong time! as of last week I'm beginning to see the entry points and re entry points. Now I'm mostly struggling with exits, not because I haven't properly drawn my S&R I think as far as drawing potential areas of resistance or support I'm as good as with determining the direction (1h trend or changing of side) but mostly to do with me not being aware/sure of enemy's trenches which brings me to the next area of the list of things I need to focus and get better at "assessment of the terrain", "ability to flow and read the flow" everything is connected I can't gauge where the enemy's are because I still do need much improvement in my ability to read the flow -> assess the terrain in terms of patterns/significant levels or turning points. Patterns I'm recognizing them now not afterwards but as they form so that's a progress. All in all everything is improving but I now need to focus more on assessment of the terrain and the ability to read the flow !!

I'll need to focus on the last two when I'm done with everything else.

no follow up at 651, rising wedge breakout bulls are defending their ground maybe not 636?!


why test 636 if you were to rise from 626.....

double top on top head & shoulder on the bottom (I'm also seeing not so perfect double bottom) rising wedge, that makes it even bears/bulls but as for reading the candle formations I only had bullish signal on the levels I drew except for a sell which failed at 636. But I must highlight that the buy signals were within the rising wedge bottom trend line which makes sense, rising wedge to 716 LH strategic.

I did miss 665 right before the lower channel broke, no retest there ?

I see why it went up from 620 head&shoulder neckline providing support but again I'm not seeing a valid buy signal.

I did go long 3 times at the wrong time without a confirmation prior Tokyo open but from 696 so the level was right but confirmation as I as I can see wasn't there and there's a lot that I still can't see but surely a lot more I'm beginning to see to decipher the right from the wrong. In hindsight instead of going long on the first test at 696 I could have sold the rejection from 820 at Tokyo and Sydney open down to 696 and go long at 730...

net +50 for the day despite entering a trade without a confirmation I think the only thing that saved me from ending the day in the negative is the level and the direction I was in line with both.

but that's not good enough of an excuse because at any moment these two can change!

now back to just observation mode.
still trying to draw my S&R right namely peak and trough and confirmation.

and on last note, I'm beginning to see how I can improvise! when I establish the rules first and when I make sure the rules are right (confirmed by PA itself and not just my own views of how it should or can be)

I'm reading lots of books at the same time some of the books on first read didn't make much sense and I couldn't really grasp those concepts but for some reason on this read things are making so much more sense maybe its because of my exposure with market movements in general providing me enough cushion to really understand those concepts, however I'm nowhere near how I can actually apply those concepts to help benefit my trading but I guess there's a time for everything and maybe its just not yet the right time

I'm keeping my trading as per usual keeping it small on my live sure I'm still a loser but the lessons I'm learning through live trading albeit the small account have been invaluable, some things can't be learnt and understood just by reading books however informative they are but only through practice and after making mistake after another but learning it from the market itself can be dangerous as it's not easy to tell the difference from correct to incorrect spelling because the variations are infinite (almost infinite) so you're bound to lose for years and years as you keep on mistaking one variation to an incorrect spelling and vice versa.

So some kind of a guidance is a MUST, BUT if you ask (I think what I'm trying to do as of recently) why and keep on doing so maybe you'll get an answer.

Oh well whatever happens, the progress that I've made things I've learnt along the way choosing to go along this path of constant doubt and uncertainty to see how I've grown I wouldn't have it any other way and I don't despise it as much for how difficult it is to understand anymore and I embrace the challenge and the difficulty took me 5 years glad I didn't quit before this realization now whatever happens happens

I don't have control over how things unfold from here on but what I have control over is how I want to do things and what I end up doing and what's certain is I somehow want to keep pursuing this and I feel like I'm on the right path (finally) and I'm starting to see the truth piece by piece.

“Nothing in the world is worth having or worth doing unless it means effort, pain, difficulty… I have never in my life envied a human being who led an easy life. I have envied a great many people who led difficult lives and led them well.”

― Theodore Roosevelt

Cause and effect , action and reaction (resolution)

To be able to see and understand things after its already happened - where I am at and I am beginning to trust what I am beginning to see.
Next phase learn to anticipate!

From here I'm trying to derive the direction+entry+exit+re entry.

Back to peak and trough.

256
246
206

I'll do more analyzing on the weekends so many levels to understand and keep track of.


I've been trading without much preparation that is because I didn't really know what to look for initially so I was all over the place gamble trades but once I figured out what to look for "partially" it then took me a long while to spot them in a chart accurately !! now that I think I have gone past that stage where I can draw my own map with some degree of accuracy where I'm fairly sure that what I'm seeing is not another reflection of another shadow if I am given the right variables I need to train myself to understand the connections between those points some of different relevance and to keep track of them in doing so I'll be able to draw conclusions on possible expected scenarios.

So once a reaction occurs (again I know what it looks like partially) I wouldn't be so confused and would pull the trigger immediately with a preset SL and exit target.

Re entry OR change of flow every reference point will be decided by my ability to draw and comprehend the map as accurate as possible but dance element comes in added complexity because time moves forward so points of reference will change in accordance to the flow of time once I can keep track of static points of references (past points) and understand why price moved one way or another I think keeping track of new points of references and their relative reference and reactions shouldn't be as difficult as first training my eyes to see the right points of references.

On final note, despite how frustrating at times humiliating this process has been now that I've started seeing some fragments of truth beyond these chaos there is "order" and I'm going to go as far as to say only human brain can make sense of this order - this is exactly how I imagined flowing along would be and look like isn't dictated by some mechanical set in stone formula there's a technique but it has an element of fluidity not open to interpretation ! unlike a painting , art installment or a dance sequence your perception is of no importance not even relative importance! it does not matter what matters is your ability to flow along to the fluidity that's governed by "the technique" that's why it easily fools the unprepared again and again it flows effortlessly with varying degree of resistance and momentum.

Now I realize why I was drawn to trading in the first place besides the obvious , the obvious is obvious but wouldn't top the initial attraction and surely I wouldn't have stayed this long for the obvious.

Exited at a potential S but a little too early.
Following the plan, no regrets.

1st trade for the month Tokyo is on.

I don't know I'm beginning to feel "kinda" bored when I'm watching a trade develop or in the midst of a trade could be a bad or a good thing.
Could be a good sign because if I can finally trust my plan and myself to observe the right things and take the right action at the right time boredom means I'm finally achieving consistency on the flip side if I still have more to unravel and if my plan is incomplete in any shape or form I wonder if I have any drive left to push through ??

Consistency or inconsistency May will be the month

Cause and effect
Peak and trough/Hip and Lop
Fractal and opposite fractal
1h v 5min
Fib extension
Impulse wave versus retracement wave
Action + reaction + resolution

You're right Franco it's all about S&R followed by action reaction and resolution.

I can see them all now......

Most people just can't accept the consequences of their choices, this has been god-awful.
Maybe not so much for the rest. But was it worth it for me ? YES ; a resounding yes.
Have I been selfish ? probably
But have I been an awful person - far from it.

Can I forgive and forget on my way down ?
I paid the price in full, so let's not play the victim.

yeaaaa, almost impossible.

Layers' keep them coming
I'm keeping a tab on them all

Granted not everyone will get all of this ever,
Many people don't even have a clue to how to properly spot S&R levels - me included I'm still learning peeling off the layers one by one - first short was too early without confirmation the second taken profit a little too early although I had my exit level right on point the third short I think I should pat myself on the back for, because it was a mixture of 1h and 5min level working in conjunction in the end 5min won I exited at 5min target but seen it fall to 995 I guess I should have stuck with my 1h level.

This is my niche.

Yes I'm letting go of my intuition and sticking with solid facts and confirmation - you must have a technique as always and not surprisingly you were right !

which means there's hope for all of us.
but can only be realized if you're willing to go the extra mile and study the right things.

garbage in garbage out.