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  • #181
  • Mar 20, 2019 12:27pm Mar 20, 2019 12:27pm
squared for news @ 1350 -7 pips
  • #182
  • Mar 21, 2019 4:00am Mar 21, 2019 4:00am
Quoting dbrown101
squared for news @ 1350 -7 pips

Can you describe/show what you thought price was doing in your chart and with what came next?

Yup long was good bias to have - but what was price actually doing?

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #183
  • Mar 21, 2019 8:53am Mar 21, 2019 8:53am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Can you describe/show what you thought price was doing in your chart and with what came next? Yup long was good bias to have - but what was price actually doing? Alex
Price had been moving along the trendline marked in blue. It had broken and retested that line at the top of the major trend channel (which is why I said that it might be a turning point and the trend was flattening out)...but there were no declining peaks and troughs and 7k's to me seemed bearish dollar except for the Gbp (brexit stuff). So Bias was determined to be up. no real movement of price on 5 min...trading mostly sideways. peeps probably sitting on hands waiting for news. Probably not the best time to pace a trade but i was just scouting...and it seemed the market already had a feel for the dovish stance the fed is taking.
just what I saw.
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  • #184
  • Mar 21, 2019 9:10am Mar 21, 2019 9:10am
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} Price had been moving along the trendline marked in blue. It had broken and retested that line at the top of the major trend channel (which is why I said that it might be a turning point and the trend was flattening out)........ {image}

....yup been following that long for ages while them peeps kept trying to force it short - nice of them - I really mean on your m5 chart which I think you traded from - bearing in mind big news coming up.

Long bias is great but price on m5 was not doing that yet in my opinion (not how I felt it ....... I think this is the feel ( that used to annoy me)) - FTI says if you detect a bias and patterns you can trade it - also they like duck hunts and set ups prior to big news not sure if my terminology helps. But I think if we want to go long then we want now price to be doing that. But you have good use of scout - put it in let it tell you and not afraid to get out - at least you listen to scouts - I used to be terrible at that.

Ro3K also told us that the short would not last. USDCHF kept short.

Could feel the topping action on the m5 for the deeper pullback ..... just how I saw it.

Think I am trying to say learn also to feel the price movement/patterns as it unfolds in the now -- I do not think these are subjective either unless mind is disturbed.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #185
  • Edited 10:06am Mar 21, 2019 9:21am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} ....yup been following that long for ages while them peeps kept trying to force it short - nice of them - I really mean on your m5 chart which I think you traded from - bearing in mind big news coming up. Long bias is great but price on m5 was not doing that yet in my opinion (not how I felt it ....... I think this is the feel ( that used to annoy me)) - FTI says if you detect a bias and patterns you can trade it - also they like duck hunts and set ups prior to big news not sure if my terminology helps. But I think if we want to go long...
my thoughts on the 5 min...

price traded sideways but started moving upwards where I marked the small trend forming...but as you said there was no real feel. Thats pretty much what i experienced but figured I'd scout anyways. As Fti and dongsky and others have said, it's much different staring at price when you have a position. But ya, there wasnt much going on so i squared for news
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  • #186
  • Mar 25, 2019 7:46am Mar 25, 2019 7:46am
Eur usd...sell @ 1.1317

just scout
H1 trend is down. now trend is still up but refusing to break the peak at 1324.
may cut scout soon as 7k's showing signs of USD bear.
Just testing water..

edit: closed right away. @1324 -6 pips
didnt feel right...dont want to be against current flow
  • #187
  • Edited 9:16am Mar 25, 2019 8:04am | Edited 9:16am
scout back out Eur/usd sell@ 1318

tough feel this morning
  • #188
  • Mar 25, 2019 9:26am Mar 25, 2019 9:26am
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} my thoughts on the 5 min... price traded sideways but started moving upwards where I marked the small trend forming...but as you said there was no real feel. Thats pretty much what i experienced but figured I'd scout anyways. As Fti and dongsky and others have said, it's much different staring at price when you have a position. But ya, there wasnt much going on so i squared for news {image}
I am trying to remember how I felt it at the time....and no-one might agree with me anyway.....

....to me that is a strong wave up in a run up a correction another run up and then a reversal at the top to start 3 wave pullback... bearing in mind the huge news coming up day - which I felt would go long just from pa (peeps buying in that correction)) but I do not trade FOMC. Cannot remember what Ro3K was doing - be good to check it out. Think there was some tearing with cable falling so felt like hunting on eurusd - but there were signs sth going on there if I remember right so I sort of felt it was hunting pre news. Jitters also around Brexit of course.

.......at the end of the wave up there are a few attempts to push it north and a super strong whack down (I mean the whack inside the candle)- this is a reversal pattern for now to me feel - so getting in long here is in a B of the correction and then C wave comes down - a C can pullback a lot. Think FTI told me if stuck in a C can close down take the hit and get back in with the closed nos as new basis and then hit it long when clear trend resumes of course FOMC in the way here and I do not trade that anyway. If you can detect pattern and bias then trading short with caution in also possible - probs could jump to M1 to trade it down.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #189
  • Edited 11:13am Mar 25, 2019 9:53am | Edited 11:13am
squared @ 1322 -4 pips

"now" trend is long and forming an ascending triangle (bullish signal). so best to be out i think
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  • #190
  • Mar 25, 2019 10:20am Mar 25, 2019 10:20am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I am trying to remember how I felt it at the time...

What I am trying to say is try and feel what price is doing now whatever your bias....

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #191
  • Mar 25, 2019 10:23am Mar 25, 2019 10:23am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I am trying to remember how I felt it at the time....
thanks for your explanation alex. I cannot quite remember either but in looking back at my chart I am in line with your thinking.

Quote
to me that is a strong wave up in a run up a correction another run up and then a reversal at the top to start 3 wave pullback..

You are talking about the movements i highlighted in blue, right? up wave in blue , correction in orange, another up wave in blue. Then retracement down. That circle where i scouted was the beginning of b of an abc correction. then wave c down....(sorry to be redundant but i just trying to understand clearly)

Quote
If you can detect pattern and bias then trading short with caution in also possible - probs could jump to M1 to trade it down.

Im still learning use the short charts in that way (which is my end goal). My typical way of viewing the market is sort of using the 5 min to pulse the 1h or trade the retracement .
which wave would you try to trade down? end of b beginning of c?
  • #192
  • Edited 12:39pm Mar 25, 2019 12:16pm | Edited 12:39pm
Thought Id post my read of the H1...my mental road map that Im in the process of developing.

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If trading the "now" trend (Bullish). Size must be adjusted as trading against the larger trend. No rescues should be attempted should the 5 min trend reverse (declining peaks and troughs- bearish) as you would also be trading against the larger trend push. If rescue was attempted...must cut and/or rescue into the direction of the trend push.
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Just thinking out loud. Might delete this later...
  • #193
  • Mar 25, 2019 12:43pm Mar 25, 2019 12:43pm
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...55#post2050855

Also good for a Mental Road Map.....

Possibilities In case you zoomed out to changed pictures, where the hourly has reversed. never rescue against a changed h1
  • #194
  • Mar 25, 2019 1:08pm Mar 25, 2019 1:08pm
Hi Dustin

If you look at the peaks and troughs you have marked on your H1 chart in M5 or M15 there you will see the art of how to time the market and see the flow as you are starting to see here.

Depending on your time reference for your trading (short, medium or long term or of course you could do all) then yes, you should only trade in YOUR now time reference/term.

The problem you will find is you can not be at your trade screen 24/5 so you will miss a lot of entries as they appear on the lower frame.

Few actually understand what FTI is saying in that post you have linked to above, most think it is a simple cut and flip action/MO…..but is it? if you read it carefully.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #195
  • Edited 2:11pm Mar 25, 2019 1:52pm | Edited 2:11pm
Quoting phil13
Hi Dustin If you look at the peaks and troughs you have marked on your H1 chart in M5 or M15 there you will see the art of how to time the market and see the flow as you are starting to see here. Depending on your time reference for your trading (short, medium or long term or of course you could do all) then yes, you should only trade in YOUR now time reference/term. The problem you will find is you can not be at your trade screen 24/5 so you will miss a lot of entries as they appear on the lower frame. Few actually understand what FTI is saying...
Thanks for the reply! As of right now Im trying to develop a way of trading the 5m trend and then if need be zooming out to the 1h for rescue, as opposed to trying to time the h1 with my 5min charts. Which is how I previously viewed the market. I am currently living in the Pacific time zone so its hard to stalk the h1 trend (london opens at midnight here and NY at 5am). What Im currently finding is that a lot of the h1 trend pushes happen from london to NY (12-5am my time) while Im asleep and Ive missed a lot of the moves. So In effect Im trying to trade the now trend from the new york open and try to make some pips. The downside to that is if i get caught and needed rescue I would be holding through twinlight zone waiting for london to come back. Not sure if i can make this viable but thats why I am demoing. anyways, this is how I see it now but may modify my views to fit my situation and experience.

I think I understand what you mean about FTI's comment. Its not a simple cut and flip. multiple possible mm techniques in there. You could could do simple cut/flip. you could take out last attack and leave the rest in and enter +1 level up in the direction of new trend. essentially hedging some of the positions but increasing the weight in the direction of the new trend. Then maybe seeing if you could rescue the trades left in the negative ,etc. Is this what you are talking about?

also, hope you are doing well!

Ps. when fti says rescue "last+1 level up" does he mean...1 level up from the last rescue or.... the last position that you took out plus the next level up. ex: 11235...took out 5....when rescuing put 5 back in + 8 (next level up)=13. guess it doesnt matter the specifics as its most dependent on terrain and BE
  • #196
  • Mar 25, 2019 2:40pm Mar 25, 2019 2:40pm
Hi Dustin

yes, I believe that is what he meant, ‘stop the bleeding….remove last…. Reverse…rescue in trend direction’ for me these are some of the clues there, basically lock/hedge then recover, I have actually seen him do this in our live trade discussions, also I have seen how he trades the high impact news and done similar alongside him. It is a great privilege to have been able to do things alongside FTI.

In your example above you removed the last (5) then flip to 8 the other way, this leaves you with 7 against 8, you may now understand why I have been doing and showing what I am doing.

FTI also said there are ways to be able to never let the book go bust somewhere.

BUT first is to get to grips with the basics as you are doing then you can make/design your own MO.

Regards
Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #197
  • Mar 25, 2019 3:04pm Mar 25, 2019 3:04pm
Quoting phil13
Hi Dustin yes, I believe that is what he meant, ‘stop the bleeding….remove last…. Reverse…rescue in trend direction’ for me these are some of the clues there, basically lock/hedge then recover, I have actually seen him do this in our live trade discussions, also I have seen how he trades the high impact news and done similar alongside him.
Quote
It is a great privilege to have been able to do things alongside FTI. In your example above you removed the last (5) then flip to 8 the other way, this leaves you with 7 against 8, you may now understand
...
Thank You for your explanation phil! thats what i understood from it as well. Although you could probably cut and flip depending on the situation. many different options...the beauty of fti's mo.

Quote
It is a great privilege to have been able to do things alongside FTI

One thing I regret the most is not being around when he was still posting, to be able to thank him personally. I lurked on the thread for ages before posting. I believe my first post was a couple below his last post...waited just a little too long. What a pleasure it must have been to be trading along side one of the best. Luckily there's still some of you TAFers hanging around to help the newcomers like me out. thank you
  • #198
  • Edited 7:57am Mar 27, 2019 7:32am | Edited 7:57am
selling eur 1 @1275

and 1 @1270

must be cautious....looks like bulls are around with big bull candles to the left. h1 still down
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update: looked like usd push on 7ks but then long wick candles appear...something cooking?
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  • #199
  • Mar 27, 2019 8:00am Mar 27, 2019 8:00am
squared both @71
  • #200
  • Edited 11:55am Mar 27, 2019 11:37am | Edited 11:55am
for my personal notes: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...31#post1845331

I always find stuff I missed when I re-read fti's words....or more like everytime I read I gain deeper understanding. might be time for another read through.

Quote
if the dance dictates that I am in alignment with the daily trend and both the short charts, It would require that I would attack full force

Quote
In reality, you would be seeing that the risk of full force used at the most advantages probabilities and timing.

and this one: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...40#post1824240

lots of good info on position sizing and tenure based on probabilities and market sigma/volitility in both of these. other hidden gems (tactical) as well
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