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My "Ultron" EA for GBPUSD H1 timeframe

  • #1,481
  • Mar 23, 2019 7:03pm Mar 23, 2019 7:03pm
Quoting PaulDV
ULTRON_PDV_105 Updates: Startup messages are now output to the log. Improved some startup check messages. Improved the efficiency of the info panel. Added trade statistics to info panel. Detect the cycle on startup if using progressive lot sizes. Allow for starting cycle at a specific point. Amended the logic for the retrace feature to improve profitability. If you leave the broker offset as zero, you are now prompted when starting the EA to ensure that you mean to do this, as most brokers are not on GMT time. The Retrace Exit feature is now on...
Paul, appreciate your ongoing improvements.
  • #1,482
  • Mar 23, 2019 9:40pm Mar 23, 2019 9:40pm
Quoting sheppy
Hate to say it,but,this is curve fitting . Its like driving looking in the rear view mirror)) i know it looks great in hind sight. Markets constantly change. What worked well before somehow goes to hell as soon as you put real money on the line

But you are free to use non fitted version, according to you. Every version 104 or 105 all do have on and off features, You can switch off all features and just use TP & SL.

Let me say, why it is not curve fitting.

Back testing & Machine Learning based on historical data and improving the model is just about training your EA on old data to simulate forward movement. thats what EAs are for.

All March forward trades were repeated on back test as well on tick data.

Now coming to back testing or even for that matter EA, there is no guarantee, it is all about probability only. Markets are nothing but behavior of people trading against various factors- whether it is news, other economic factors or just speculation.

And every strategy is just a pattern which is observed and we try and fit. a repeat of the pattern and see whether it is successful.

Here on this EA, first we got the good signal, which allowed us to have more winners than losers - higher probability.
Then we focused on maximising our % of winners by bringing in Trailing Stop effectively managing it - again flexibility allowed.
Lot size calculation to allow for different styles to see how we maximise our winners.
To reduce drawdown, we saying, lets minimise our loss by reducing losers, even if it sacrifices few of our winners- thats where new feature came in. I think it did reduce a bit. not too much but a bit of drawdown. - if a trade goes almost 80%, then it is better to close it when it retraces, not expecting it to become a winner. already it has made a move of about 50pips or something. we saying, it is retraces to Moving Average 50, which is one of MA we using on this. It would be a good point to close it with that loss. it is just a pattern which has been observed to reduce losers.

We only have 1 incident of consecutive losing trades according to our signal. we can always ignore it and move on.


if you can, please help us find a reason why the signal formula worked better since August 2018 better. what made it good only now. how long will this run last.

Again, feel free to use without enabling these options.
  • #1,483
  • Mar 23, 2019 10:19pm Mar 23, 2019 10:19pm
Quoting Pawel.Gawron
{quote} I see a lot of comments like that so let me explain why you don't have a single trade for a few days. I will use this analogy - this EA is not acting like a machine gun. It's more like a sniper rifle. In backtest history, it made something like 450 trades in the last 7 years. That means at average it will open one trade per 3-4 days if you exclude weekend time. If you are looking for some "exciting" EA, that will shot a trade few times per day, then Ultron is not an EA you are looking for. I believe that trading is built upon patience. This...
Thanks Pawel for your great EA and very good explanation of how the ULTRON works and look forward your updated version.
  • #1,484
  • Mar 24, 2019 1:32am Mar 24, 2019 1:32am
[quote = Johannes7; 12148800] {quote} Кола, какой еще советник вы используете? [/ quote]
advisors use 1) ULTRON_PDV_ 2) BULLDOZER
  • #1,485
  • Mar 24, 2019 5:04am Mar 24, 2019 5:04am
Is anyone here using mql or myfxbook to show us the results of ea? and what are you thinking?
  • #1,486
  • Mar 24, 2019 5:41am Mar 24, 2019 5:41am
Appreciate for your test to this EA. Gonna run on my vps next monday
  • #1,487
  • Mar 24, 2019 10:02am Mar 24, 2019 10:02am
Quoting Oportunista
Is anyone here using mql or myfxbook to show us the results of ea? and what are you thinking?

We pretty much discussing when EA enters the trade. In March we have had 3 trades.

And few based on changed settings, have new trade on friday, which is technically an open trade at the moment.

You can check in when a new trade begins and see the result. so many of us confirm how many pips have been made, either Trailing SL or TP.

It is work in progress. Some good work by @pauldv & @Feex, and still signal open signal being used is provided by @pawel. Thanks to them, we getting with positive buzz.
  • #1,488
  • Mar 24, 2019 4:30pm Mar 24, 2019 4:30pm
Ultron PDV 105 loaded with OP and lite 3
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 46 KB
  • #1,489
  • Mar 24, 2019 9:18pm Mar 24, 2019 9:18pm
Quoting Emerald2112
Ultron PDV 105 loaded with OP and lite 3 {image}
Man how is going M15? Is it profitable? What about MA50?
  • #1,490
  • Mar 25, 2019 1:52am Mar 25, 2019 1:52am
1- Ultron is been opening trades on Friday night.
2- Friday trades float approx 3/4 days and 50% 50% chances hitting SL or trailing-SL.
3- Some guys close friday trades manually and received 2 more trades triggered in next week.
4- Some guys didn't close friday trades manually and missed 2 profitable trades as compare to those who closed manually.

I'm happy with overall results with pawel, feex, and paul versions so its all good for me.
But for the sake of improvements, this matter is with mrdfx, cdsaa, Paul, & Feex to judge & decide.
  • #1,491
  • Mar 25, 2019 3:20am Mar 25, 2019 3:20am
Quoting PaulDV
{quote} Thanks Veter, but we're all using 105 now. Also, I recommend using tick data in order to get 99.9% quality modelling - 90% isn't accurate enough unfortunately.

I can't attach screenshots and then attach files. Is there an error? MA1-MA2 Gap shouldn't be green?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Foto a pagina intera (4).jpg Size: 285 KB
  • #1,492
  • Mar 25, 2019 4:33am Mar 25, 2019 4:33am
Closed Friday's trade with -8 pips.
  • #1,493
  • Mar 25, 2019 5:21am Mar 25, 2019 5:21am
Quoting PaulDV
ULTRON_PDV_105 Updates: Startup messages are now output to the log. Improved some startup check messages. Improved the efficiency of the info panel. Added trade statistics to info panel. Detect the cycle on startup if using progressive lot sizes. Allow for starting cycle at a specific point. Amended the logic for the retrace feature to improve profitability. If you leave the broker offset as zero, you are now prompted when starting the EA to ensure that you mean to do this, as most brokers are not on GMT time. The Retrace Exit feature is now on...
Does this EA work on live accounts or it needs a licence?
  • #1,494
  • Mar 25, 2019 5:28am Mar 25, 2019 5:28am
Quoting fareed51
1- Ultron is been opening trades on Friday night. 2- Friday trades float approx 3/4 days and 50% 50% chances hitting SL or trailing-SL. 3- Some guys close friday trades manually and received 2 more trades triggered in next week. 4- Some guys didn't close friday trades manually and missed 2 profitable trades as compare to those who closed manually. I'm happy with overall results with pawel, feex, and paul versions so its all good for me. But for the sake of improvements, this matter is with mrdfx, cdsaa, Paul, & Feex to judge & decide.
Hi Fareed,

I've performed some analysis on the results for the past two years, looking at wins/losses on a day of the week basis, and the trades appear to be fairly evenly distributed across the week, with the exception of Tuesdays, which has nearly double the trades of any other day. Losses are also fairly evenly distributed, with Friday trades being no different to trades opened on any other day of the week.

Of course, that's historical, and running on forward testing could produce completely different results...
"Pips are vanity. Profit is sanity."
  • #1,495
  • Mar 25, 2019 7:01am Mar 25, 2019 7:01am
Quoting kola16
[quote = Johannes7; 12148800] {quote} Кола, какой еще советник вы используете? [/ quote] advisors use 1) ULTRON_PDV_ 2) BULLDOZER
Is Bulldozer an EA or an indicator based system?
  • #1,496
  • Mar 25, 2019 7:33am Mar 25, 2019 7:33am
Quoting A45Trader
{quote} Does this EA work on live accounts or it needs a licence?
No licence is needed - it works on all types of accounts.
"Pips are vanity. Profit is sanity."
  • #1,497
  • Edited 7:54am Mar 25, 2019 7:35am | Edited 7:54am
Quoting majamivice
Closed Friday's trade with -8 pips.
You should have trusted the EA - it's currently 34 pips in profit.

EDIT: just closed for 15 pips profit.
"Pips are vanity. Profit is sanity."
  • #1,498
  • Mar 25, 2019 7:58am Mar 25, 2019 7:58am
Quoting Baxb
{quote} I can't attach screenshots and then attach files. Is there an error? MA1-MA2 Gap shouldn't be green? {image}
Ah, yes, sorry - I thought I had fixed that, but I've just seen the same on my chart. I've made a change to the code and tested it and it now works, and it will be included in the next update.

The issue is just with the info panel and doesn't affect the trading of the EA.
"Pips are vanity. Profit is sanity."
  • #1,499
  • Mar 25, 2019 8:07am Mar 25, 2019 8:07am
Quoting PaulDV
{quote} You should have trusted the EA - it's currently 34 pips in profit. EDIT: just closed for 15 pips profit.
I don't even trust myself, and not talk about an EA. I could have close also in profit today with about + 8 pips, but when it turned back I thought better set SL little under open price then wait and pray with live account. I've waited since Friday night.
  • #1,500
  • Mar 25, 2019 8:20am Mar 25, 2019 8:20am
Quoting majamivice
{quote} I don't even trust myself, and not talk about an EA. I could have close also in profit today with about + 8 pips, but when it turned back I thought better set SL little under open price then wait and pray with live account. I've waited since Friday night.
not bad, just 8pips loss is ok, we can live with it.

We can take next one... it is looking great.
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