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$ For The Week Of 10/16-With Some Trade Tips

  • #101
  • Oct 17, 2006 11:34am Oct 17, 2006 11:34am
Quoting trucco
For those who are in short, I believe the price will touch again 1.8690-1.8670 circa where will meet buyers again. If the trend for big players is LONG then the retracement will be probably contained no more down then 1.8685-1.8695
Hmm.. but for now the pair has touched the R2. So, what do u think for going short?
  • #102
  • Oct 17, 2006 11:42am Oct 17, 2006 11:42am
Quoting c1ro
Hmm.. but for now the pair has touched the R2. So, what do u think for going short?
I dont think to go short at all

I only wanted to tell what is the next possible move from here, especially for those who are in short and dont know what to do now.
  • #103
  • Oct 17, 2006 11:46am Oct 17, 2006 11:46am
Quoting trucco
I dont think to go short at all

I only wanted to tell what is the next possible move from here, especially for those who are in short and dont know what to do now.
Yeah. as far as I see, there are still more room for the pair. But the forecast for tomorrow's events indicate that USD will be weaker
  • #104
  • Oct 17, 2006 12:02pm Oct 17, 2006 12:02pm
Quoting c1ro
Yeah. as far as I see, there are still more room for the pair. But the forecast for tomorrow's events indicate that USD will be weaker
When I said 1 hour before the news of PPI that the price would go back between 1.8630-1.8660, there I went long @ 1.8660, but I already closed the trade with + 60 pips

Tomorrow is an other day, with a new trade
  • #105
  • Oct 17, 2006 12:05pm Oct 17, 2006 12:05pm
why cant bernanke just say hes gonna raise interest rates again ,,,, lol ;-)
  • #106
  • Oct 17, 2006 12:05pm Oct 17, 2006 12:05pm
Quoting c1ro
Yeah. as far as I see, there are still more room for the pair. But the forecast for tomorrow's events indicate that USD will be weaker

c1ro,

when citing a forecast please tell where you are getting your information from. Which forecast service are you using???

4Cast news and analysis predicts a core CPI that is 0.2, that is
"on consensus for core, but risk leans to upside"

Briefing.com predicts both CPI and core CPI on consensus, which is CPI at -.3% and core CPI at 0.2%
  • #107
  • Oct 17, 2006 12:06pm Oct 17, 2006 12:06pm
the pound would drop 200 pips easy...
  • #108
  • Oct 17, 2006 12:08pm Oct 17, 2006 12:08pm
I trade technically, and follow just what is needed from their crap..

Anyway, things never move as they should if you follow too much their mounth
  • #109
  • Oct 17, 2006 12:13pm Oct 17, 2006 12:13pm
i know me too im just kidding...
  • #110
  • Oct 17, 2006 12:18pm Oct 17, 2006 12:18pm
Quoting enoc2g
i know me too im just kidding...
I Know
  • #111
  • Edited 3:04pm Oct 17, 2006 2:53pm | Edited 3:04pm
If you followed the plan, you stayed off the PPI trade this A.M. as the whole thing was interpeted differently. Equities got spooked by the number, but bond yeilds stayed pretty much the same. The EUR and GBP pushed up a bit then fell back, but there was no clear-cut indocation of how the market would take this.

``The inflation numbers are not an impediment in traders' minds'' because the drop in all prices ``is so overwhelming,'' said Richard Gilhooly, an interest-rate strategist at BNP Paribas Securities Corp. in New York. ``An uptick in core inflation, especially when it's led by autos, is not credible.''

The best trades are when Vinny Del Guidice from bloomberg comes on and confidently states what the numbers indicate-that didn't happen today so it was no trade for me...

Again, I will be listening to Bloomberg tom for their take on the CPI numbers. If I don't hear something exact-it'll be a no trade for me.

Personally, I think the best way to trade is when the fundamentals are most obvious. It's the only time when the markets will move somewhat predictably. I like to take positions based on my opinion, but everytime I do, I wind up pushing the wrong button! I'll stick to demo trading my own theories for now...

You don't need to be in the market on a constant basis...and all those technical indicators constantly get shattered in the face of important economic news...really, the less trades the better.
  • #112
  • Oct 17, 2006 2:56pm Oct 17, 2006 2:56pm
News- Are you referring to Bloomberg television?
thanks


Quoting NewstraderFX
If you followed the plan, you stayed off the PPI trade this A.M. as the whole thing was interpeted differently. Equities got spooked by the number, but bond yeilds dropped. The EUR and GBP pushed up a bit, but there was no clear-cut indocation of how the market would take this.

The best trades are when Vinny Del Guidice from bloomberg comes on and confidently states what the numbers indicate-that didn't hapen today so it was no trade for me...

Again, I will be listening to Bloomberg tom for their take on the CPI numbers. If I don't hear something exact-it'll be a no trade for me.

Personally, I think the best way to trade is when the fundamentals are most obvious. It's the only time when the markets will move somewhat predictably. I like to take positions based on my opinion, but everytime I do, I wind up pushing the wrong button! I'll stick to demo trading my own theories for now...

You don't need to be in the market on a constant basis...and all those technical indicators constantly get shattered in the face of important economic news...really, the less trades the better.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #113
  • Oct 17, 2006 3:06pm Oct 17, 2006 3:06pm
<TABLE class=tborder id=post121283 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-TOP: 0px"><TABLE cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD noWrap>summitfx http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...er_offline.gif<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_121283", true); </SCRIPT>
...
</TD><TD width="100%"> </TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap>Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Colorado USA
Posts: 369


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- / user info --></TD></TR><TR><TD class=alt1><!-- message, attachments, sig --><!-- icon and title -->http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...cons/icon1.gif
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->News- Are you referring to Bloomberg television?
thanks
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



What, after bustin my balls now ur interested?...lol...OK yeah BB radio...but the TV is probably just as good
  • #114
  • Oct 17, 2006 3:10pm Oct 17, 2006 3:10pm
OK here's a really good trade idea-read this article:

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...&refer=economy

You'll see the expectations of a GBP rate hike. Get the CPI info off the BB tom morn and listen to the interpetation. Hopefully, there will be clear-cut $- info off the CPI

If we get it, go long on the GBP and hold on for like 100 pips...don't let go of that trade if it happens for like forever...

You'll notice I'm not making any predictions-just how to react to the fundamentals IF they indicate it. Besides the rate increase speculation that exists for the GBP, we have a lot of net inflows into the pound from the US and Eurozone due to M&A activity. Central Banks are diversifying their reserves into pounds...there is a lot of interest in the pound right now but those are long term buy strategies. Let the fundamentals dictate the trade tomorrpw. If they all get lined up the trade will be a good one...
  • #115
  • Oct 17, 2006 3:51pm Oct 17, 2006 3:51pm
THERE'S ALWAYS MORE TO LEARN
Check these 2 articles out. You have former HEAD FED Volker saying how important it is for foreigners to buy US debt. In the next article, you'll see that net foreign purchases of US debt were way up in Aug-far above economists estimates...it seems the FED has a vested interest at keeping the rates where they are or lowering them, if they can.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...&refer=economy

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...&refer=economy

Who knows, maybe the markets will be shocked tomorrow with a nice drop in the core CPI...that would be very nice...
  • #116
  • Oct 17, 2006 4:24pm Oct 17, 2006 4:24pm
Bloomberg is absolutely a fantastic resource. And NewstraderFX is 100% correct.

This morning, I experimented with another news source, actually it touts itself as a newstrading engine. It was way off the mark.

Had I listened to Bloomberg, I would have stood aside. Instead I lost 3 lots @ 10 pips. No big deal. But I do NOT like to lose.

I will go back to Bloomberg exclusively tomorrow.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #117
  • Oct 17, 2006 6:11pm Oct 17, 2006 6:11pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
What, after bustin my balls now ur interested?...lol...OK yeah BB radio...but the TV is probably just as good
News, are you referring to BB radio off the net or the plain vanilla satellite radio?
Is BB radio off the net a little bit delayed? i'm not talking about normal IP latency here, delayed like 20min or something.
  • #118
  • Oct 17, 2006 6:49pm Oct 17, 2006 6:49pm
Thanks News- I wasn't really bustin' your balls- you made a bad prediction a while back and I called you on the carpet. You obviously have a high degree of knowledge in Economics and I do appreciate your commentary even if you are off the mark from time to time. Are you an Ivy Leaguer?


Quoting NewstraderFX
<table class="tborder" id="post121283" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="alt2" style="padding: 0px;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="6" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap">summitfx http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...er_offline.gif<script type="text/javascript"> vbmenu_register("postmenu_121283", true); </script>
...
</td><td width="100%"> </td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Colorado USA
Posts: 369


</td></tr></tbody></table><!-- / user info --></td></tr><tr><td class="alt1"><!-- message, attachments, sig --><!-- icon and title -->http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...cons/icon1.gif
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->News- Are you referring to Bloomberg television?
thanks
</td></tr></tbody></table>



What, after bustin my balls now ur interested?...lol...OK yeah BB radio...but the TV is probably just as good
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #119
  • Oct 17, 2006 8:46pm Oct 17, 2006 8:46pm
Yeah, your bustin my balls summit, but don't worry-I don't mind cause I get to bust urs back...Ivy League?...School of Hard Knocks-graduated with honors too...lol

And for those that asked about BB-yeah just plain old vanilla BB radio 1130 on the AM dail here in beautiful NYC...and no, there's no delay. They give the numbers (at least the major ones) immediately, followed by my boy Vinny Del Guidice on the color commentary...

I'm a bit of a gambler though...i'm seriously thinking about taking a long position in the GBP just prior to the report...hopin for that .1 or better on the core CPI...with a stop of course! Wait 'til you see how much fun it is when the price gaps-and you're already in the position! No guts-no glory and maybe no money either!!!
  • #120
  • Oct 17, 2006 9:21pm Oct 17, 2006 9:21pm
Another USD Bullish day?


Quote
Good Day!

A little bit of cross trading but scenario remains intact. Minor 4th wave almost over, USD poised for minor 5th wave up of the larger 3rd wave.

Maintain Buy USD on dips

TRADE STRATEGY:

USD vs CAD pushing towards 1.1450, then 1.1510. Support at 1.1310

Sell GBP at 1.8700, stoploss 1.8800. Objective 1.8550, then 1.8400

Sell Euro at 1.2540, stoploss 1.2640. Objective 1.2440, then 1.2400

Buy USD vs Yen at 118.70, stoploss 117.80. Objective 120.00, then 120.50

Buy USD vs CHF at 1.2680, stoploss 1.2570. Objective 1.2820

Yesterday was not much of a USD bull.. Even with an outstanding PPI, TIC USD did not seem to rally.
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