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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #58,201
  • Edited Mar 21, 2019 1:24am Mar 20, 2019 1:29am | Edited Mar 21, 2019 1:24am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} primarily, its to be able to overcome the tsunami,
Hello CookieMonsta,

It's worthy of appreciation.

We might know that there is no secret. Have a trading account size corresponding to your pain threshold (= accepted DD risk) provided your broker cannot legally demand losses exceeding the account size.

Otherwise, more than 1000 (10000) pips gaps in split seconds... People have already seen that.

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,202
  • Mar 20, 2019 2:36am Mar 20, 2019 2:36am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, It's worthy of appreciation. We might know that there is no secret. Have a trading account size corresponding to your pain threshold (= accepted DD risk) provided your broker cannot legally demand loses exceeding the account size. Otherwise, more than 1000 (10000) pips gaps in split seconds... People have already seen that. Best regards, Exnav
Not exactly, the loss recovery table has an alternative formulation.

If you use a fibo skew for rescue, size and volatility determines p&l. You can control size, but can you control volatility?

What is the tsunami? It's a very large outsized volatility move.

This is actually related to the butterfly once mentioned here.
  • #58,203
  • Mar 20, 2019 3:13am Mar 20, 2019 3:13am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Not exactly, the loss recovery table has an alternative formulation. If you use a fibo skew for rescue, size and volatility determines p&l. You can control size, but can you control volatility? What is the tsunami? It's a very large outsized volatility move. This is actually related to the butterfly once mentioned here.
Thank you. As a retailer, I can only (and must) control my risk (SIZE, DD) given that is provided by the Market (broker's platform).

The gap I mentioned, when price within seconds is placed (moved, opened) very far from opened positions and whatever hedging (rescuing) options have not been activated (or triggered at the worst level) due to the Market gap.

E.g., price is Long 1.3200. You want to hedge at 1.3000 Short (or SL order is placed there, or your wanted to activate it manually there). Gap and price is at 1.2000 (and never was at 1.3000 or 1.2500). What and where can then be activated by your broker. Or, you were not by your screen even having a rather light position and had not put any hedging orders but the gap happened and swallowed the trading account.

Even taking all the above discussed, e.g., once I have given an order to open a position at the size of 50 K. It was activated by my broker at the size of 500 K. Why so, because technically the maximum available leverage was 1:10. Had it been 1:100, I would have 5 M then... It was just a technical flaw of the platform...

It might be that we are writing about the same but in different wording.
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,204
  • Edited 3:41am Mar 20, 2019 3:21am | Edited 3:41am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Thank you. As a retailer, I can only (and must) control my risk (SIZE, DD) given that is provided by the Market (broker's platform). The gap I mentioned, when price within seconds is placed (moved, opened) very far from opened positions and whatever hedging (rescuing) options have not been activated (or triggered at the worst level) due to the Market gap. E.g., price is Long 1.3200. You want to hedge at 1.3000 Short (or SL order is placed there, or your wanted to activate it manually there). Gap and price is at 1.2000 (and never was at 1.3000...
Ok, 1 further question, what volatility are you controlling?

By using rescue, you increase size to adapt to volatility but direction is same and net average is better now yes? What else can you do with this information?

Also just to point out, you need not hedge that far out for efficiency purpose.

So yea, there is right? So what if you bought put units which cost very little but is effectively a stop on your position allowing you to handle such gaps?

But on top of this, are there limits? In fact, the limit is at 30% of account exposure. The question is how do you decrease position size using volatility rather than trying to muscle your way out?

So the key is always how to implement locks.
  • #58,205
  • Mar 20, 2019 3:42am Mar 20, 2019 3:42am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Ok, 1 further question, what volatility are you controlling? By using rescue, you increase size to adapt to volatility but direction is same and net average is better now yes? What else can you do with this information? Also just to point out, you need not hedge that far out for efficiency purpose. So yea, there is right? So what if you bought put units which cost very little but is effectively a stop on your position allowing you to handle such gaps? But on top of this, are there limits? In fact, the limit is at 30% of account exposure....
Hello CookieMonsta,

If you ask me. I don't control volatility and am unable to do so. I do control my positions sizes and apply them in accordance with a flowing volatility and my ability to read tape/ charts.

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,206
  • Mar 20, 2019 3:46am Mar 20, 2019 3:46am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, If you ask me. I don't control volatility and am unable to do so. I do control my positions sizes and apply them in accordance with a flowing volatility and my ability to read tape/ charts. Best regards, Exnav
And that's where it defers right?

The entire function of attack and rescue is influencing of position average px through size. But you can't affect markets volatility, however you can affect portfolio volatility?

If eurusd is going up and you are short, and you see gbpusd is up and eurgbp's is side ways, and you long gbpusd, your volatility exposure becomes related to eurgbp's?
  • #58,207
  • Edited Mar 21, 2019 1:22am Mar 20, 2019 4:10am | Edited Mar 21, 2019 1:22am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} And that's where it defers right? The entire function of attack and rescue is influencing of position average px through size. But you can't affect markets volatility, however you can affect portfolio volatility? If eurusd is going up and you are short, and you see gbpusd is up and eurgbp's is side ways, and you long gbpusd, your volatility exposure becomes related to eurgbp's?
To specify my comments:

Trading account size = accepted risk / DD; no legal commitments if a loss exceeds the trading account size. Your DD is your pain threshold or calculated risk you accept in case of... (2% of money allocated for trading, 3%, 5%, 3-day-profit, 10%, 30%, up to you...)

Otherwise, I should trade a size able to sustain whatever Tsunami volatility (more than 10000 pips gap or move) or activate whatever hedging along with (at the moment of) opening of the trading position. Pre-ordered positions (butterfly, SL, hedging pre-orders or orders) may be too late to activate if enormous Gap and slippage happens.

I would be grateful for your sharing if you got my points. I might be expressing somewhat ambiguously or fuzzily.

I am indeed sorry since cannot add anything more to this discussion. Thank you.
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,208
  • Edited 6:43am Mar 20, 2019 6:31am | Edited 6:43am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} To specify my comments: Trading account size = accepted risk / DD; no legal commitments if a lose exceeds the trading account size. Your DD is your pain threshold or calculated risk you accept in case of... (2% of money allocated for trading, 3%, 5%, 3-day-profit, 10%, 30%, up to you...) Otherwise, I should trade a size able to sustain whatever Tsunami volatility (more than 10000 pips gap or move) or activate whatever hedging along with (at the moment of) opening of the trading position. Pre-ordered positions (butterfly, SL, hedging pre-orders...
Just a question, once you hit 30% of account value down and 30% troopers deployed, is this your final rescue?

This is a lesson covered early on regarding money management. If you do not use fibo skew, you may not have enough effective rescues.

My main point is that once you hit 30% you can use only 1 last rescue effectively, after that all rescues will be ineffective, the average price skew is not enough to properly rescue. If caught out in such a situation, the trader may be faced with a 78% sunk troops scenario. Once 78% is sunk 22% is not going to do anything. Your only option really is either cut loss and start over or hold on blindly hoping price can go back up. Also, as you add, your book sigma increases at geometric rate. Meaning your ability to withstand volatility decreases at a geometric rate per addition of rescue.

Both are equally lousy options. And there is something to be said for even allowing the account to go that way.
  • #58,209
  • Edited 2:15am Mar 21, 2019 1:22am | Edited 2:15am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Just a question, once you hit 30% of account value down and 30% troopers deployed, is this your final rescue?
Hello CookieMonsta,

Thank you for your kind question.

As far as I am concerned, I have never risked 30% of my funds allocated for trading (DD). It is not percentage of my single trading account, as I described yesterday. My individual threshold is about 2 - 5 %, never more.
E.g., you may have cash available and allocated for trading at 100K and your trading account size would be then just 2K or 5K.
Presumably bankers, funds managers, very experienced traders do a figure exceeding 10% of their cash, maybe. They should know what they are doing while mostly managing institutional or clients funds.

I should reiterate my point - my issue is the Size. E.g., yesterday (sick and old man) I committed the same mistake twice within some 3 minutes. I lost my focus on the platform and triggered orders 20 times bigger than intended - merely did not control and notice the Size I was activating (having in mind the figure 20 times less). 6 pips to BE and price ran away some 60 pips. Then, being already tired, I was hedging and reducing the Size all the way down and back. At the 6 hours battle end I was exhausted and finished with 1% DD of the trading account (some 4 to 6 pips from BE). The price would have made 2% profit in just 10 minutes if I had let the positions flow. So, yesterday I wrote about the broker's flaw making my size 10X, today I am writing about 20X but my own mistake. The Size... Focus and Peace of Mind.

Best regards,
Exnav

P.S. Expressing sometimes a critique of the flaws regarding brokers (platforms, etc.), in the end I am sure they must be happy having persistently fighting (adding to attacks, rescuing, hedging) clients like me. The larger sizes and more hedging, the more money they get on spreads and commissions.
Where are my pending SL orders, now they can compute the levels figure from my texts
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,210
  • Mar 21, 2019 5:59am Mar 21, 2019 5:59am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} YeS!!! and so as the cookie crumbles you’ve learned that the master fti learned to trade in a banking culture which used client money to test liquidity yet never learned the true art of reading from a simple tape yet he taught or tried to teach a bunch of uncapitalised people the way of the bankers kind of a catch 22 or a kind of irony im not sure, hence all the philosophical references but mostly him laughing and i guess enters now ego Um ok Well good luck with that... i guess in all the gusto fti truly belived he was doing you all a favor...

There is one thing I don't get though.

I used to try use stops to see how mm attempt to grab the stops and move the stop up just to see if mm is desperate to fill it or not. And that gave me a sense if mm is hunting or not. Is that manipulation? That was 2 years ago at least and since I don't know if it's technically legal, I didn't continue doing. Hmm so you saying it's a valid strategy?
  • #58,211
  • Mar 31, 2019 8:47am Mar 31, 2019 8:47am
Hi All,

How everyone is doing.
  • #58,212
  • Mar 31, 2019 9:39am Mar 31, 2019 9:39am
Quoting antmindset
Hi All, How everyone is doing.
Hello Ant,

Thank you. Since it's Sunday, I should naturally have some reflection. Debriefing and a way ahead. It's also important, to me at least, making things different from trading but yet necessary. Moreover, I like feeling of understanding there's no Horizont to evolve.
And how are you, have you ATM found (revealed) any "secret" here on TAF or in your learning? When may we expect some inputs from your end?


Enjoy the rest of the week-end,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,213
  • Mar 31, 2019 9:49am Mar 31, 2019 9:49am
Quoting antmindset
Hi All, How everyone is doing.
My chart is close since, it’s Sunday! And spending time here & watching movie on YouTube.
  • #58,214
  • Mar 31, 2019 11:01am Mar 31, 2019 11:01am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Ant, Thank you. Since it's Sunday, I should naturally have some reflection. Debriefing and a way ahead. It's also important, to me at least, making things different from trading but yet necessary. Moreover, I like feeling of understanding there's no Horizont to evolve. And how are you, have you ATM found (revealed) any "secret" here on TAF or in your learning? When may we expect some inputs from your end? Enjoy the rest of the week-end, Exnav
Hi Exnav,

I am fine. Thank you.

There are no secret here, just mindset and MO and MM, you know that . I have started learning with Demo account. Market is teaching me alot. Currently reading compound chart pattern from John hill book.

One more book i am reading about Structure of the market, which is foundation, it is "The Foreign exchange market by Claude Tygier".

I need to learn a lot before going live. Plan is to double the Demo account before trading real money. Forex is new to me, i deliberately want it slow learning.

Hopefully i will start trading with real money by oct 2019.

Regards,
Ant
  • #58,215
  • Apr 1, 2019 12:34am Apr 1, 2019 12:34am
Quoting antmindset
{quote} There are no secret here, just mindset and MO and MM, you know that . I have started learning with Demo account. Market is teaching me alot. Currently reading compound chart pattern from John hill book.
Hello Ant,

It looks that you are on the very right track.
Train an analyst and build a trader. Know your enemy and yourself.
In fact I don't know that. I try to adapt, evolve and always wonder what is in the mirror. That is: whether I am the right fit to the trading in the end. It's a hard and sweaty endeavor, when you are rewarded reciprocally and reveal the secrets lying/ hidden in You along with each trade/ battle.

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,216
  • Apr 2, 2019 10:45pm Apr 2, 2019 10:45pm
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Ant, It looks that you are on the very right track. Train an analyst and build a trader. Know your enemy and yourself. In fact I don't know that. I try to adapt, evolve and always wonder what is in the mirror. That is: whether I am the right fit to the trading in the end. It's a hard and sweaty endeavor, when you are rewarded reciprocally and reveal the secrets lying/ hidden in You along with each trade/ battle. Best regards, Exnav
thank you for guidance, exnav.

today i saw srange dream. l was playing cricket, similar to baseball, and FTI was there. old man with deep voice like Dumbledore of harry Potter movie.

Man was full of wisdom.
i asked him a question that " can i hit home run each and every time".
he said, that's the goal.
i asked how?
he said, just don't hit the ball once and run, keep hitting it till it reachs at your desired point.

i dont know what is this. May be ,after reading first 205 pages for 3,4 times with demo trading, making notes, analysing historical 5 min chart, my subconscious is creating all these stories and creating a belief system.

i am amazed how powerful our mind is and how much it can adapt.

happy reading.

regards

Ant

exnav, may be this is the secret i would like to share. ,,
  • #58,217
  • Edited 1:08am Apr 3, 2019 12:24am | Edited 1:08am
Quoting antmindset
{quote} thank you for guidance, exnav. Man was full of wisdom. i asked him a question that " can i hit home run each and every time". he said, that's the goal. i asked how? he said, just don't hit the ball once and run, keep hitting it till it reachs at your desired point. i dont know what is this. May be ,after reading first 205 pages for 3,4 times with demo trading, making notes, analysing historical 5 min chart, my subconscious is creating all these stories and creating a belief system. i am amazed how powerful our mind is and how much it can...
Hello Ant,

You are welcome and thank you for your secret (I won't spread it further so hold it under your hat).
We don't know how many times we must keep hitting, may be each time we are supposed to hit better - improve and evolve. Thereby, we will make this long run a bit shorter, because of quality perfected (in geometrical progression, maybe).
ATM I'm improving all walkways around my house. I do it myself and I like it: bringing not more than 2 or 3 bricks at a time, aligning each separately (enjoying the process). If I took, e.g., 15 - 20 at once, I would probably carry them but would not be able to continue the arranging for days later on, or never, perhaps.
As regards, the 5 MIN charts, it may also depend on any current market/ instrument posture/ flow that you play. I have arrived that sometimes I make decisions (push the button) on 10 SEC...
I am looking forward to seeing your further sharing.

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,218
  • Apr 3, 2019 5:59am Apr 3, 2019 5:59am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} There is one thing I don't get though. I used to try use stops to see how mm attempt to grab the stops and move the stop up just to see if mm is desperate to fill it or not. And that gave me a sense if mm is hunting or not. Is that manipulation? That was 2 years ago at least and since I don't know if it's technically legal, I didn't continue doing. Hmm so you saying it's a valid strategy?
(My take) .. Depends on your cap... they will do it definitely if its worth doing. I wouldn’t call it manipulation just good business. To fill big orders requires liquidity. often the obvious place for a stop loss is in line with 95% of others on the same side of the trade. So maybe an individual position is not worth hunting but because it is in a horde of many others that share the same view it becomes a profitable transaction to first buy into it then sell the outcome (in the case of a “Buy” stop hunt). Sellers need buyers; a banker recieves a big sell order and so in doing his job needs to somehow fill that order, so pushing into large buy stops at a better price than market is logical.

This is not our world we are merely slaves to it, an audience to the stage... but to survive and then prosper must somehow adapt

If you ever reach the kind of size that makes you a target then (i assume) the game changes. And you’re def not on a forum boasting about it (*cough dancing phil =p). You’re doing everything you can to hide it

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Time hides Nothing
  • #58,219
  • Apr 3, 2019 6:50am Apr 3, 2019 6:50am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Cindy, Thank you for the point has drawn my attention. However, if only the CAP is considered, there is still a concept of an ant work. The Ant alone (uncapitalized retailer) is unable to raise the size of a bull or bear load (banker). Should the Ant try, will quickly die from the overwork or, the least, it will cause a spine crack... Otherwise, a simple math would make the CAP equal. E.g., the Banker's cash 500M and scout 100K, the Ant's cash 500 (almost everyone can afford this size) and scout 0.1 USD. Then, how long would take to...
Differnt strokes for different folks ... you describe 2 completely different games


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Time hides Nothing
  • #58,220
  • Apr 3, 2019 12:06pm Apr 3, 2019 12:06pm
Is trading easy or hard? if you think it's hard so it's hard, just simple is better, as my trading system.
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