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The Swamp

  • #31,961
  • Mar 19, 2019 7:01am Mar 19, 2019 7:01am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} stop out at 1359, -9..
Do you still use statistics for how likely is it for a trend to turn? IIRC you said that there's a 75% chance for the hourly to reverse on the 3rd day and 90+ on the fourth? Do you have these for 4h and daily too?
  • #31,962
  • Mar 19, 2019 7:02am Mar 19, 2019 7:02am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} stop out at 1359, -9..
still holding +add some.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #31,963
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:17am Mar 19, 2019 8:17am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} still holding +add some.
I did scalp longs at 1355 and 1356, close both at 1361.. I have no more longs...
  • #31,964
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:21am Mar 19, 2019 8:21am
Quoting xav
{quote} Do you still use statistics for how likely is it for a trend to turn? IIRC you said that there's a 75% chance for the hourly to reverse on the 3rd day and 90+ on the fourth? Do you have these for 4h and daily too?
today only 50% chance.. .. tomorrow this time will be 70% chance to reverse H1 trend,, even H1 reverses, it will change into range trade , just temp top is set
  • #31,965
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:24am Mar 19, 2019 8:24am
coming to test M15 uptrend stop 1348 , 2nd time, 4 mins to go..
  • #31,966
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:29am Mar 19, 2019 8:29am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I did scalp longs at 1355 and 1356, close both at 1361.. I have no more longs...
you have a good spread. for me, it is more chance for the reasonable downside, than upside. she is testing.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #31,967
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:34am Mar 19, 2019 8:34am
Quoting xav
{quote} Do you still use statistics for how likely is it for a trend to turn? IIRC you said that there's a 75% chance for the hourly to reverse on the 3rd day and 90+ on the fourth? Do you have these for 4h and daily too?
4h, to reverse uptrend maybe in a couple of days.. daily downtrend, it will be long time to reverse its daily down trend
  • #31,968
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:35am Mar 19, 2019 8:35am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} you have a good spread. for me, it is more chance for the reasonable downside, than upside. she is testing.
agree.. I think this MPP 1364 stops it.....
one step a time, first we need to reverse M15 uptrend ..(1348 stop )
  • #31,969
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:38am Mar 19, 2019 8:38am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} today only 50% chance.. .. tomorrow this time will be 70% chance to reverse H1 trend,, even H1 reverses, it will change into range trade , just temp top is set
How long would it take for H4 to reach 70-90%?
  • #31,970
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:49am Mar 19, 2019 8:49am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} agree.. I think this MPP 1364 stops it..... one step a time, first we need to reverse M15 uptrend ..(1348 stop )
I think she did it on M15.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #31,971
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:49am Mar 19, 2019 8:49am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} agree.. I think this MPP 1364 stops it..... one step a time, first we need to reverse M15 uptrend ..(1348 stop )
M15 in downtrend now..
  • #31,972
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:50am Mar 19, 2019 8:50am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} I think she did it on M15.
yeah, green light to short bounces...with stop 1359..
  • #31,973
  • Mar 19, 2019 9:16am Mar 19, 2019 9:16am
Me still short from 1.1342, 1344 and 1359.

Long at 1308 - stops at be for the long trade. I need 1175 to be seen again. Any bounces into support I will trigger longs. 1256, 1233.

Interesting chart I saw a while back I can't find anymore shows this major cycle ending around 1.0270... over spill to 1.0050.

My max for TP is 1.0850-70. But at this point seeing 1175 will be a good trade.
  • #31,974
  • Mar 19, 2019 9:39am Mar 19, 2019 9:39am
Quoting jaylovin
Me still short from 1.1342, 1344 and 1359. Long at 1308 - stops at be for the long trade. I need 1175 to be seen again. Any bounces into support I will trigger longs. 1256, 1233. Interesting chart I saw a while back I can't find anymore shows this major cycle ending around 1.0270... over spill to 1.0050. My max for TP is 1.0850-70. But at this point seeing 1175 will be a good trade.
I think maybe better to cash out those longs..
  • #31,975
  • Mar 19, 2019 9:40am Mar 19, 2019 9:40am
lets see we can test H1 uptrend stop today at 1330...
  • #31,976
  • Mar 19, 2019 10:03am Mar 19, 2019 10:03am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It will suck being short unless pa can get below 1318. It may take several tries, if it makes it at all (maybe days). u may want to tp because its likely to be slapped around some. yeah, I do crank it up some. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baAfOcYEEnI
having fun yet?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,977
  • Mar 19, 2019 10:10am Mar 19, 2019 10:10am
There is no signs of a drop yet. The last hour closed bullish. Bear trap.

Not planning to make any money on this long, rather reduce the drawdown on my shorts.. upside is still exposed
  • #31,978
  • Mar 19, 2019 10:12am Mar 19, 2019 10:12am
at 1 m through day is above bearish. week sits at 1356.7. just getting below 1318 and closes can reverse the "above bearish" to below bullish. like turning off a switch.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,979
  • Mar 19, 2019 10:17am Mar 19, 2019 10:17am
Quoting jaylovin
There is no signs of a drop yet. The last hour closed bullish. Bear trap. Not planning to make any money on this long, rather reduce the drawdown on my shorts.. upside is still exposed
if it dont close above 1356x Friday.. this can all happen again. pa sits above 1318 atm day needs to close below to drop.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,980
  • Mar 19, 2019 10:22am Mar 19, 2019 10:22am
[quote=Boulder;12130355]{quote} yeah, green light to short bounces...with stop 1359..[/quote]
Now wait to see M15 bears can hold the stop 1359,,,
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