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Plan the Trade

  • #11,321
  • Mar 18, 2019 8:47pm Mar 18, 2019 8:47pm
it is totally math DD having a good MM and risk to reward in place even 50% keeps you in profit. some don't like my tight stops or moving stop to +1 when up 6 and that's fine with me it works for me and that's all thats matters that's my LANE. You can travel in my lane if you want or not
  • #11,322
  • Mar 19, 2019 3:40am Mar 19, 2019 3:40am
Flawless Executiion is the real edge a trader can have once he found his strategy.
As i am tracking my execution journal, which tells me how shitty my executions , causes my failure till date.
on a postive roll...
  • #11,323
  • Mar 19, 2019 3:48am Mar 19, 2019 3:48am
Quoting Nik-Nyc
{quote} No, it is not common sense, it is foolish and very naive. If you know the rules of the system, then another traders execution should hold no value to you. Its all about how YOU execute, not anybody else. Furthermore, basing your belief in a system off someone else's stats is a shaky foundation that leads to disaster. I am frankly shocked you don't know this. You have your own thread Vee, feel free to rant there at will, lets not pollute this thread, especially in the OPs absence.
Not at all objective response but whatever if this discussion falls outside the context of this thread. I am talking about fills and you are going into stats. Compare this post with my screenshot if you still don't get what I am trying to convey!
And yes, it should take any experienced trader less than 30 minutes to gauge long term merit of any strategy just by looking at stats. Being an algo trader, be shocked at yourself if you don't know this.

I have asked several times in the past if I should exit this thread. If this discussion is considered polluting, then I know the drill to head myself out the door.

Peace
Staying in my lane...
  • #11,324
  • Mar 19, 2019 4:23am Mar 19, 2019 4:23am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Exactly Divergence ... and I would only change that to read as follows: "the only thing we know before we put on any trade and that is how much are we going to risk if enough traders do not come into the market to move price profitably in our direction." If we have a solid methodology such as Divergence's, then there is no right or wrong so long as a set up is present. If a set up is present, the only wrong would be not to take it. We have no control over what the market is going to do. Once we enter a trade, we need other traders to come...
That's what it boils down to -yet there are those who invent algo's and/or try to see into the future via other means rather than accept the facts dd writes about above. Knowing where you trade is wrong before putting it on is crucial as is checking your journal for progress. There are probably other aspects to consider such as discipline etc but rather than write essays on avoiding the fact that we are in a casino could we PLEASE get back to trading and those who love theorising please start your own thread.
I suspect that those who make money write very little and keep a weather eye on others for useful points that might improve their trading. They also accept that losers crop up and that runes or maths will not produce 100% winners. Please, more charts and comment but less essays.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #11,325
  • Mar 19, 2019 5:00am Mar 19, 2019 5:00am
Not against algo's but I can't help but think that unless you are party to certain 'networks' and or have very deep pockets, there will always be some ingredient missing from the mix. But if you are skilled enough to be able to build them, why wouldn't you give it a go. For a normal (ish) person, I liken it to trying to catch a speeding train whilst dreaming, with jelly for arms.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #11,326
  • Mar 19, 2019 5:29am Mar 19, 2019 5:29am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Not at all objective response but whatever if this discussion falls outside the context of this thread. I am talking about fills and you are going into stats. Compare this post with my screenshot if you still don't get what I am trying to convey! And yes, it should take any experienced trader less than 30 minutes to gauge long term merit of any strategy just by looking at stats. Being an algo trader, be shocked at yourself if you don't know this. I have asked...
Bye.
  • #11,327
  • Edited 8:16am Mar 19, 2019 8:00am | Edited 8:16am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Not at all objective response but whatever if this discussion falls outside the context of this thread. I am talking about fills and you are going into stats. Compare this post with my screenshot
There may be a bit of folks talking past, rather than with one another on this here. I think what is being suggested by nik-nyc is that someone else's ability to trade a non-automated system has nothing to do with the viability of the system itself. So Divergence has a simple to understand system. It is as old as the hills, and if you want to see it explained by a professional trader in book form one can find its best explanation in Victor Sperandeo's excellent book (his first two).

Divergence has applied it to a specific market (NQ) and a specific bar interval (30 seconds) and a specific time frame (trades last usually a few minutes at most). He has a money management strategy that he applies to the system. Now, one can back test the method and discover if it is a profitable system over the long run. I have not tested Harold's specific trading plan, but I have no reason to suspect it is anything bu wildly profitable. That does not mean I could trade it as well as he does. I am almost certain that I could not. I do not particularly like 30 second bars, I do not particularly like the scalping in and out. I might be tempted to mess with the profit targets and get greedy, holding for a longer profit and watching my gains disappear in a break even stop out - who knows? But those are my faults, not the faults of the system.

You are saying that you need to see "evidence" that a system works in the form of "fills," or actual trades. I do not agree. You are capable of back testing anyone's claims as to whether a particular trading methodology is profitable over time or not. I back test all set ups prior to trading them, and then I usually will live test a set up on a live market demo for a series of 20 to 25 trades before I go at it with live money. I showed a system last week using a 512 tick chart that is wildly profitable when trading in the direction of the 5 minute chart trend. But it is too hectic for me. I burn out on it. I start missing fills, then I chase trades, and when I chase now my entries are not as favorable as the system is designed to produce, and I so now take a loss that should have been a break even or I take a break even that had I traded it as designed should have been a full $125/contract profit. Is the problem the system or the trader? It is obvious that it is me, the trader.

As for the post you link to, I confess I do not get what point you are trying to make.


Quoting turnip15
{quote} There are probably other aspects to consider such as discipline etc but rather than write essays on avoiding the fact that we are in a casino could we PLEASE get back to trading and those who love theorising please start your own thread. I suspect that those who make money write very little and keep a weather eye on others for useful points that might improve their trading. They also accept that losers crop up and that runes or maths will not produce 100% winners. Please, more charts and comment but less essays.
Discipline and having the right mindest are 90% of making a consistently profitable living form the market. Charts and set ups and technical analysis are very little. The right mind set is the probabilistic mind set described by Mark Douglas. What is that?

"What casino owners and professional gamblers understand about the nature of probabilities is that each individual hand played is statistically independent of every other hand. This means that each individual hand is a unique event, where the outcome is random relative to the last hand played or the next hand played. If you focus on each hand individually, there will be a random, unpredictable distribution between winning and losing hands. But on a collective basis, just the opposite is true. If a large enough number of hands is played, patterns will emerge that produce a consistent, predictable, and statistically reliable [and profitable] outcome." - Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone.

So you may want charts - fine, post some yourself as well. But don't think that charts are what is most needed. The most valuable posts in this thread are not where Harold or erasmus or me or anyone else is posting a chart. The most valuable posts are where Harold is telling us that not all of his trades are profitable, but that over the long run his system is - so accept the loss as the price you pay to enter the game and play on. I like to see charts as well. And if you don't like the essays, scroll on by. But I suspect there are some folks reading this thread who think what they need to fix themselves is a better set up or system, when what they really need to fix is between their ears and in their hearts.


All that having been said, I have to say that I do not think scalping a 30 second NQ chart is the place for someone to start. That is professional level trading. Harold is at that level. Harold himself launched his flag trading the trend thread on a 5 minute chart. That is where most of us, beginners and vets alike, belong. I think many would be surprised to find that it is easier to make 10 points on a 5 minute chart than it is to make 10 ticks on a 30 second chart.
  • #11,328
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:21am Mar 19, 2019 8:21am
Nice to see sensible discussion. Makes me want to participate and maybe spend a little time to show something of value.
  • #11,329
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:21am Mar 19, 2019 8:21am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} There may be a bit of folks talking past, rather than with one another on this here. I think what is being suggested by nik-nyc is that someone else's ability to trade a non-automated system has nothing to do with the viability of the system itself. So Divergence has a simple to understand system. It is as old as the hills, and if you want to see it explained by a professional trader in book form one can find its best explanation in Victor Sperandeo's excellent book (his first two). Divergence has applied it to a specific market (NQ) and...
that last paragraph is true. picking those swings on on any timeframe is hard, but on a 30 sec chart? it's witchcraft lol

Also, i imagine it's a different kind of "stress" trading on 30 sec. I know divergence would probably say it's stress free, but it's definitely more focus needed to watch your trades at that short level, wathcing to make sure you put it at b/e quick or exiting quick when it moves differently in seconds!

The 1 hr focusing on the 30 sec chart is equivalent to 2-3 hours of 5 minute chart watching in terms of focus and active work needed i think.
  • #11,330
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:22am Mar 19, 2019 8:22am
the market is like going shopping and we all like to get things at a better price than whats offered hence the old adage buy low and sell high or in my case buy lower (pullback) sell higher (pullback) my flag trading strat of years ago in essence was a pullback strat that i fine tuned into what i do now nothing new here guys
  • #11,331
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:28am Mar 19, 2019 8:28am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} that last paragraph is true. picking those swings on on any timeframe is hard, but on a 30 sec chart? it's witchcraft lol Also, i imagine it's a different kind of "stress" trading on 30 sec. I know divergence would probably say it's stress free, but it's definitely more focus needed to watch your trades at that short level, wathcing to make sure you put it at b/e quick or exiting quick when it moves differently in seconds! The 1 hr focusing on the 30 sec chart is equivalent to 2-3 hours of 5 minute chart watching in terms of focus and active...
firstly its not witchcraft i am carnac the magnificant lol the reason i say its stress free is i have as much time as you do to put on trades, i look for 123 2b patterns or pullbacks in a trend so i know what i need to see and react accordingly. as far as moving my stops they move automatically the only time i will intervene is when i get over 20 if i see it struggle ill flatten.
  • #11,332
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:37am Mar 19, 2019 8:37am
nice trend...fake out or continuation?
  • #11,333
  • Mar 19, 2019 8:42am Mar 19, 2019 8:42am
Quoting hilmy83
nice trend...fake out or continuation?
so sick..
  • #11,334
  • Mar 19, 2019 9:04am Mar 19, 2019 9:04am
nice 2b break pullback at 9175 up 23 grabbed 18
  • #11,335
  • Mar 19, 2019 9:17am Mar 19, 2019 9:17am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} There may be a bit of folks talking past, rather than with one another on this here. I think what is being suggested by nik-nyc is that someone else's ability to trade a non-automated system has nothing to do with the viability of the system itself. So Divergence has a simple to understand system. It is as old as the hills, and if you want to see it explained by a professional trader in book form one can find its best explanation in Victor Sperandeo's excellent book (his first two). Divergence has applied it to a specific market (NQ) and...
Excellent post.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #11,336
  • Mar 19, 2019 9:18am Mar 19, 2019 9:18am
A little hint , when trading fx micro lots , diversification , 10 cent lots, grid, indistructable 5 + yrs back testing, ea, otherwise don’t waist time fx.
  • #11,337
  • Mar 19, 2019 9:19am Mar 19, 2019 9:19am
Took a small loss right off the bat trying to short YM, then took a couple scalps short and am back up net 18 points. I said last week I thought ES was headed to 2900. I still think we're heading higher. The "experts" say we're supposed to crash now so I guess the market is confused lol. Already coiling up on YM today. Might be breaking to the upside right now though.
  • #11,338
  • Mar 19, 2019 9:25am Mar 19, 2019 9:25am
Quoting Divergence
nice 2b break pullback at 9175 up 23 grabbed 18
You're responsible for my nightmares Harold. I see "Thrust bars" in my sleep

Seriously, keep up the good work H. Much appreciated by many here.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #11,339
  • Mar 19, 2019 9:25am Mar 19, 2019 9:25am
I'm holding a long w/ target 26129. I have to head out. We'll see what happens...
  • #11,340
  • Mar 19, 2019 9:28am Mar 19, 2019 9:28am
Quoting jack411
I'm holding a long w/ target 26129. I have to head out. We'll see what happens...
stopped out +5 points
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