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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #58,181
  • Edited 8:42pm Feb 28, 2019 6:35pm | Edited 8:42pm
Quoting pannet1
scout is used for testing waters. then why chief is sending a checker after that. what is the purpose. wont the scout be sufficient. generals please enlighten.
It does as Phil mentioned, testing water, and allowing you to cut quick if in trouble with little impact on book.

However it has a secondary use of allowing for skewing of net average position price if you use 1 1 2. E.g. if you bought at 1x 1.0050 price went to 1.0075 and may impulse to 1.0100, so you want to attempt 1x at 1.0075 with average px at 1.00625, hence foreign cap helping absorb some shock should market suddenly reverse and also buying time for you to wait as you are holding to advantage position.

Alternative mindset which I use is directly using fibo skew starting from 5, and using 3 as attack and 8 as rescue so frame of mind is position is always in rescue and attack mo, there is no scouting. Down side is you have to pulse better and be more nimble. And you have to use the hip lops for timing as larger position is in play per level.

Where as for 1 1 2 3 5, has more levels but allow for smaller units.

In actual trading scenario, both are acceptable as the mm usage depends on terrain, for slower terrain using 1 1 2 3 5 is easier to fine tune, but for swift moving terrain, opportunities to deploy each level is lesser so different skews are used for different sequence and terrains for the price action.

Or you can just mix and match however you like switching from 1 1 3 then skew to attack with 3 then fibo rescue with 8/13 again.

The key take away is how your average px and size is affected as each level is deployed with respect to the current price, as well as book sigma, then comes terrain.
  • #58,182
  • Edited 11:01pm Feb 28, 2019 10:08pm | Edited 11:01pm
https://towardsdatascience.com/the-f...d-c83b765107bd

This time, if you predict wrongly you could lose your life. That's the technical analysis fallacy. Because before that, it's called statistical analysis fallacy as well, maybe now it's called quantitative analysis.

All caused by a predictive mindset, and a predictive mindset creates rigidity and stops the trader from becoming adaptive to the markets.

Only difference is, you can only apply quantitative analysis on stable distributions and non changing quantities or highly stable systems for proper results.

Seriously if you actually want to do financial modelling, go study physics and actually go study chaotic systems.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_...ith_Statistics
  • #58,183
  • Mar 1, 2019 12:32am Mar 1, 2019 12:32am
Quoting pannet1
scout is used for testing waters. then why chief is sending a checker after that. what is the purpose. wont the scout be sufficient. generals please enlighten.
Hello Pannet1,

Thank you for your question.

As far as I understand, Fti related the checker to a particular situation likely to occur, namely, on a minute development after impulse (thrust, momentum) of the wave 1 - a Scout at AB and the Checker at CD if it extended farther than the Impulse 01. The flow probably was to develop to the next wave.

Then, my humble advice to your attention, if I may. Please consider each of the posts by Fti's followers as acting and valuable help for open minded. It means, to digest and dissect the information granted as carefully as possible but in accordance with your individuality, having no any predictive rigidity. It's your temperament, MM, pocket size, pain threshold, other restrictions, strengths and weakness (to benefit from).

To the point, patterns are developing and mutating in the now flow momentum. That's when you make decisions to deploy your scouts or whatever size forces. I should pick up and look at, IMHO, the most dangerous scenario to consider unless you have been sufficiently patient to wait till she has her hands (or legs) shown. That's, when there's a likely turn in the general or intermediate trend. So, you can read the turn on its way, move from a strategic view point (Daily, Hourly) but when it's in the 5/15 MIN now flow momentum there might be shaking off, springs and upthrust moves of 40 - 60 pips in a shape of expanding triangle or assassin. You don't know for how long and how far the triangle (or support/ resistance testing and stops hunting) may go, or let's say definite fighting between buyers and sellers, supply versus demand. And the above with no any major news. When supported by the news, it would rather make just two or three volatile (about 100 pips and more) shaking off moves. I don't know your traded instrument (Oil) but have observed several such live scenarios with currency pairs. It's just to be aware of before sending scouts/ checkers/ attacks and rescues/ flipping.

Trade safe,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,184
  • Mar 1, 2019 3:51am Mar 1, 2019 3:51am
Quoting pannet1
scout is used for testing waters. then why chief is sending a checker after that. what is the purpose. wont the scout be sufficient. generals please enlighten.

..............there is not a template - he may not send in scouts at all..... depends on terrain and his feel....... if price is moving strongly your way then why go in small as your average will quickly be behind you... if market not moving much then different picture if you add aggressively.......FTI may also put peeps in and then take em out in loss and then add em in later....he may also leave peeps in with loss and then wait til price comes back his way......he has many variations based on years of experience.....if he is not sure it is ready to run then he will scout for feel - he could put in nothing but scouts.... then run.... why does army use scouts?

Take my advice and spend some time watching the market - put in a single scout if it helps and do not rescue just watch and learn how she moves..... Donsky idea - and I think it may be good for you.....have advised this already but up to you...I still feel you fighting the market.....

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,185
  • Mar 1, 2019 6:01am Mar 1, 2019 6:01am
Thanks together !
Could not ask for more.
Exnav, you write very artfully. wonderful reading like poem or literature. Search for more of your writing, just for the kick, when i find time.


Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi pannet1 My friend the whole idea of the scout/s is to use to save yourself from making a bigger mistake and to let you get a feel for what is happening, scouts are expendable and should always be viewed that way. Regards Phil.
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Pannet1, Thank you for your question. As far as I understand, Fti related the checker to a particular situation likely to occur, namely, on a minute development after impulse (thrust, momentum) of the wave 1 - a Scout at AB and the Checker at CD if it extended farther than the Impulse 01. The flow probably was to develop to the next wave. Then, my humble advice to your attention, if I may. Please consider each of the posts by Fti's followers as acting and valuable help for open minded. It means, to digest and dissect the information...

Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} It does as Phil mentioned, testing water, and allowing you to cut quick if in trouble with little impact on book. However it has a secondary use of allowing for skewing of net average position price if you use 1 1 2. E.g. if you bought at 1x 1.0050 price went to 1.0075 and may impulse to 1.0100, so you want to attempt 1x at 1.0075 with average px at 1.00625, hence foreign cap helping absorb some shock should market suddenly reverse and also buying time for you to wait as you are holding to advantage position. Alternative mindset which I...
Quoting alexandria
{quote} ..............there is not a template - he may not send in scouts at all..... depends on terrain and his feel....... if price is moving strongly your way then why go in small as your average will quickly be behind you... if market not moving much then different picture if you add aggressively.......FTI may also put peeps in and then take em out in loss and then add em in later....he may also leave peeps in with loss and then wait til price comes back his way......he has many variations based on years of experience.....if he is not sure it...
  • #58,186
  • Edited 10:17am Mar 1, 2019 8:15am | Edited 10:17am
Inserted Video


very good song
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #58,187
  • Mar 1, 2019 2:21pm Mar 1, 2019 2:21pm
I caught the conclusion of this post. even without a mentor, a trader can determine their own future.
  • #58,188
  • Mar 2, 2019 2:47am Mar 2, 2019 2:47am
Quoting Nathaniel711
I caught the conclusion of this post. even without a mentor, a trader can determine their own future.
one always determine their future.

no trading book makes us understand certain things. thats why a master (mentor) is needed.
for an analogy, its like with the treatment for most disease is available on the internet, why visit a doctor.
  • #58,189
  • Edited 1:29pm Mar 2, 2019 11:18am | Edited 1:29pm
Deleted.
  • #58,190
  • Mar 2, 2019 1:27pm Mar 2, 2019 1:27pm
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} The very wrong message to address to a person like me. But it reveals a lot about your personality, Sir. Just the last evidence that I needed to complete the picture of your mindset. Thank you. Hope you are going to delete it quickly, showing some respect at least for this thread.
you the person i dont know.
my personality you know better than me. Sir.
Then, there was a first evidence, middle one and the next one.

Just remembering the great master.
post #60
Quote
With this out of the way, lets get on with it.
If I forgot, remind me.
If I misquoted, correct me
If I don't make sense, ask again.
If I am wrong, teach me.
If I err, forgive me.
But most important , don't sit there staring at me.

Note: In the movie they argue that sometimes NO means YES. Its just the words used in this post is same. Never meant to disrespect you.
  • #58,191
  • Mar 8, 2019 5:37am Mar 8, 2019 5:37am
Hi All,

I completed 2nd reading of first 200 pages. It seems like entirely new insights from FTI after reading his post again.

Meanwhile i am reading it again, 3rd time with old graphs and charts. Found this website which has intraday charts for 2008 also
barchart.com

Everything is there in first 200 pages, but it is taking time to sync with mind. As FTI said no reading can help without putting in practice, I have started Demo now. Let see how it goes. Making lots of mistakes (my scorpion is doing this). I now understand why FTI said it will take 1-2 years to understand the core mindset and 1-2 more to be profitable, always.

My General, Commander, scorpion, monk, has to know each other well and gel together as team. i am trying.

Happy Trading.
-Ant
  • #58,192
  • Mar 16, 2019 8:38am Mar 16, 2019 8:38am
is there anymore news on how our friend FTI is doing?

wishing him and his family all the best .

regards Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #58,193
  • Mar 18, 2019 3:28pm Mar 18, 2019 3:28pm
Quoting fti
{quote} it depends how the price is going against. and one need send scout size prices into market against the pravailing prices. If your price sits staring at the their bid or offer. It means there is little liquidity. If it chases your prices, then its good liquid market. On whether is best practise to flip, it would depend on what you are seeing in the technical patterns. AND if you had caught a bias. regards eeeer one same reason why cookie cannot understand about the 1----50 which i showed is because he thinks those 111111 were initiated positions....
Hey all,

Just perusing through the thread...thinking this is a hidden gem...but Im wondering if someone else has pondered what FTI said here. Maybe someone has a better understanding of what he is talking about here although it seems this topic was abandoned before reaching resolution. FTI sends multiple scouts out (sounded like limit orders from the way he phrased it...but he never answers Cookies question of whether they were limits or not ). Somehow he's using these orders (based on their average price?) to see where the market makers book is at. Wondering if someone could shed some more light on this subject.

Hope everyone is well!

Dustin
  • #58,194
  • Mar 18, 2019 7:15pm Mar 18, 2019 7:15pm
Hi, dbrown,

You will have to understand it by looking at a depth of market chart / level 2. Also they are market orders, they aren't limit orders, the limits we talking about here is about how much size fti has at his disposal. Because if you would agree with me, that skew would imply your either really huge or your scout is super small, or both.

What's happening here is that, fti is using scouts to test the market. But the catch in the skew is this.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50, is a heavy attack skew using 1-5 skew. But this doesn't capture the essence of it, it's not just purely based on skew.

Notice fti mentioned in he is indicated to be in a zig zag terrain, this tells us he navigating a low vols terrain, attempting an attack into a trend run terrain hence the heavy load at the end. But also notice that fti also mentioned he calculating the markets liquidity, and that you can only see from the order book, if you do trade stocks or crypto, you will understand this better by looking at the level 2 then looking back at the post again. I'm not sure about this, but I highly suspecting fti is attempting to touch off the stops and initiate a trend run.

So it does not just tells us abt how the skew is used, but if you at his position, you can attempt an actual attack and move price, by triggering stops, and after all if he is in interbank, it's his market.

Say example, there are 70 lots from 1.0010 to 1.0050 limit sells, buy stops 80 at 1.0075 to 1.0100, if you are large enough, you buy 70 from 1.0010 to 1.0050 and attempt to liquidate into 1.0075 and you may be left with 10lots short, and you can attempt to liquidate it later, in this case, your moving price.

Well, I didn't continue since I sort of understood what he was doing so it was not continued.
  • #58,195
  • Mar 19, 2019 4:42am Mar 19, 2019 4:42am
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} Hey all, Just perusing through the thread...thinking this is a hidden gem...but Im wondering if someone else has pondered what FTI said here. Maybe someone has a better understanding of what he is talking about here although it seems this topic was abandoned before reaching resolution. FTI sends multiple scouts out (sounded like limit orders from the way he phrased it...but he never answers Cookies question of whether they were limits or not ). Somehow he's using these orders (based on their average price?) to see where the market makers...

worth reading all the chat that led to this from Cookie too....the feel explained

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,196
  • Mar 19, 2019 5:01am Mar 19, 2019 5:01am
Quoting CookieMonsta
Hi, dbrown, You will have to understand it by looking at a depth of market chart / level 2. Also they are market orders, they aren't limit orders, the limits we talking about here is about how much size fti has at his disposal. Because if you would agree with me, that skew would imply your either really huge or your scout is super small, or both. What's happening here is that, fti is using scouts to test the market. But the catch in the skew is this. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 50, is a heavy attack skew using 1-5 skew. But this doesn't capture the essence...
YeS!!!

and so as the cookie crumbles you’ve learned that the master fti learned to trade in a banking culture which used client money to test liquidity yet never learned the true art of reading from a simple tape


yet he taught or tried to teach a bunch of uncapitalised people the way of the bankers


kind of a catch 22 or a kind of irony im not sure, hence all the philosophical references but mostly him laughing and i guess enters now ego

Um ok

Well good luck with that... i guess in all the gusto fti truly belived he was doing you all a favor

Well i just appreciated him for his energy and joke is on anyone who thinks they can do it without pre earned success in life itself ...

hm not entirely sure, i never cane here for the trade stuff anyway

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Yk1HipdhdCU
Time hides Nothing
  • #58,197
  • Mar 19, 2019 5:18am Mar 19, 2019 5:18am
Amd don’t get me wrong i love the f guy ... we
deserved nothing less than what he gave, a real human being

Thats life =p real gold, thank you fti

Truely


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BHgYtKkSEDA
Time hides Nothing
  • #58,198
  • Edited 9:04am Mar 19, 2019 5:41am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} YeS!!! and so as the cookie crumbles you’ve learned that the master fti learned to trade in a banking culture which used client money to test liquidity yet never learned the true art of reading from a simple tape yet he taught or tried to teach a bunch of uncapitalised people the way of the bankers kind of a catch 22 or a kind of irony im not sure, hence all the philosophical references but mostly him laughing and i guess enters now ego Um ok Well good luck with that... i guess in all the gusto fti truly belived he was doing you all a favor...
Lol, good that you pointed it out, didn't see that part coming.

Mainly my frame of mind is on position management, fti's frame of mind is on discovering mm position and direction.

Safe to say, my mo have already diverged from the mo here by a huge gap already.

But I found what I wanted, ability to handle tsunamis and I'm contented

Lets just say, what works for me seems to be different from whats presented here, i borrowed elements from here, but i have different goals, primarily, its to be able to overcome the tsunami, and that may mean doing things not adviced in this thread which feels natural to me.

But hey, p&l is up, cant complain.
  • #58,199
  • Mar 19, 2019 11:14am Mar 19, 2019 11:14am
what FTI has tought works. i am living it since last 6 months. and yes demo account is in profit. ( i used to trade so i know all emotions attached with real money).

anyone can understand it, only catch is read first 200 pages real slow. and then reread. that's it.

can't say anymore FTI said it all. eventually what matters is + account.

-Ant
  • #58,200
  • Mar 20, 2019 1:17am Mar 20, 2019 1:17am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} the master fti learned to trade in a banking culture which used client money to test liquidity yet never learned the true art of reading from a simple tape yet he taught or tried to teach a bunch of uncapitalised people the way of the bankers
Hello Cindy,

Thank you for the point has drawn my attention.
However, if only the CAP is considered, there is still a concept of an ant work.
The Ant alone (uncapitalized retailer) is unable to raise the size of a bull or bear load (banker). Should the Ant try, will quickly die from the overwork or, the least, it will cause a spine crack...
Otherwise, a simple math would make the CAP equal. E.g., the Banker's cash 500M and scout 100K, the Ant's cash 500 (almost everyone can afford this size) and scout 0.1 USD.
Then, how long would take to build the Ant House? There a real issue might lie. At least half a year consistently successful on Demo and the following year in profit at the same Ant's size. But we want to have everything already today (greed, immediate profit), or fear or revenge or a bad mood, tired, etc....

Also, there is no commercial banker of absolute CAP power.

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
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