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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #7,121
  • Mar 13, 2019 3:27pm Mar 13, 2019 3:27pm
EU M5 PA if this helps. Although I'm only flicking a quick scan on M5, this is a good example of the engulfing PA I like to see.

I had no idea EU was going higher until this PA came in. I even exited a long as I wasn't seeing what I wanted initially.
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  • #7,122
  • Mar 13, 2019 3:33pm Mar 13, 2019 3:33pm
GU is screaming up still. I think the market is sniffing out a 2nd referendum.
  • #7,123
  • Mar 13, 2019 3:40pm Mar 13, 2019 3:40pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Have a look at the bull engulfing PA at that entry point, stack H1/M30 next to H4. SL went below the PA, bit of a momentum play with trend. Entry was good as demand zone was forming. I can find these entries in autopilot these days. They stick out like a sore thumb.

Heres what Ive got for 60min and 4hr. The circled area are your first longs. So on the 4hr, there is a red hammer bar with the tail that indicated buying. That was forming on the 4hr while you entered on the 30min correct? Do you consider that 4hr bar a zone or just good bullish PA? I wouldn't think to consider it a zone since price didn't turn there. But I could see why you liked the PA.

If my question doesn't make sense I'll try to re-phrase. I also see that it was a pullback on 4hr as well with bullish PA. Price dipped down into demand and actually went a little lower than it.

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  • #7,124
  • Mar 13, 2019 3:45pm Mar 13, 2019 3:45pm
Quoting C-12
EU M5 PA if this helps. Although I'm only flicking a quick scan on M5, this is a good example of the engulfing PA I like to see. I had no idea EU was going higher until this PA came in. I even exited a long as I wasn't seeing what I wanted initially. {image}
Could you explain your thoughts on PA in this example.
As i would have personally waited for an entry just a tad lower. My idea woukd to have been ro enter nearer where your Sl was. I woukd obviously have missed out on this trade so curious to what it was you thought at the time of entry
  • #7,125
  • Mar 13, 2019 3:46pm Mar 13, 2019 3:46pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} Heres what Ive got for 60min and 4hr. The circled area are your first longs. So on the 4hr, there is a red hammer bar with the tail that indicated buying. That was forming on the 4hr while you entered on the 30min correct? Do you consider that 4hr bar a zone or just good bullish PA? I wouldn't think to consider it a zone since price didn't turn there. But I could see why you liked the PA. If my question doesn't make sense I'll try to re-phrase. I also see that it was a pullback on 4hr as well with bullish PA. Price dipped down into demand...
I can see what you mean about the long tail on that chart, I'm not usually a fan of this PA. Not sure what timezone that chart is but here's the NY close candles.

In terms of H4 PA I was buying early, but when it formed it gave confidence to the direction and to hold the trades.

I guess LTF main advantage is the tighter entry. These exits look premature...
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  • #7,126
  • Edited 4:43pm Mar 13, 2019 3:55pm | Edited 4:43pm
Quoting NevFX
{quote} Could you explain your thoughts on PA in this example. As i would have personally waited for an entry just a tad lower. My idea woukd to have been ro enter nearer where your Sl was. I woukd obviously have missed out on this trade so curious to what it was you thought at the time of entry
The M5 bull move was just the initial heads up that buyers are coming in to continue uptrend. No supply to left to be worried about either.

Once bull PA is established on H1/M30 with fresh demand the market would have to slice though that new demand zone to get to my stop.

Sure it may retest the new zone, so some patience is definitely needed before feeling fully confident on this one.

Multiple timeframes is what helps add confidence. Higher the better.
  • #7,127
  • Mar 13, 2019 4:01pm Mar 13, 2019 4:01pm
Here's M30. Makes sense?
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  • #7,128
  • Mar 13, 2019 4:30pm Mar 13, 2019 4:30pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} The M5 bull move was just the initial heads up that buyers are coming in to continue uptrend. No supply to left to be worried about either. Once bull PA is established on H1/M30 with fresh demand the market would have to slice though that new demand zone to get to my stop. Sure it may retest the new zone, so some patience is definitely needed before feeling fully confident on this one. Multiple timeframes is what helps add confidence.

When you say no supply to the left to worry about, do you mean on the 5min chart? There was that big bear bar on the 4hr that price was approaching and went right through( the beginning of the big previous drop) Was that the reason for the first exit that you said looked premature?
  • #7,129
  • Mar 13, 2019 4:40pm Mar 13, 2019 4:40pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} When you say no supply to the left to worry about, do you mean on the 5min chart? There was that big bear bar on the 4hr that price was approaching and went right through( the beginning of the big previous drop) Was that the reason for the first exit that you said looked premature?
That H4 area wasn't much concern as that was just the remains of an upper zone test on the way down. Also that area doesn't register as anything on D1.

So basically trend is up and I'm monitoring LTF very closely for bull PA to get onboard.

M5 countertrend zones against the trend are not a concern. I mostly just filter them out by habit.
  • #7,130
  • Mar 13, 2019 5:08pm Mar 13, 2019 5:08pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} That H4 area wasn't much concern as that was just the remains of an upper zone test on the way down. Also that area doesn't register as anything on D1. So basically trend is up and I'm monitoring LTF very closely for bull PA to get onboard. M5 countertrend zones against the trend are not a concern. I mostly just filter them out by habit.

I see where if tested the upper zone on 4hr and was part of the move down. I would have thought of it as a supply zone being stacked under another supply zone though... Thanks for letting us pick your brain!
  • #7,131
  • Mar 13, 2019 5:14pm Mar 13, 2019 5:14pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} I see where if tested the upper zone on 4hr and was part of the move down. I would have thought of it as a supply zone being stacked under another supply zone though... Thanks for letting us pick your brain!
No problem Jack, I don't have all the answers but happy if this helps.
  • #7,132
  • Mar 14, 2019 2:15am Mar 14, 2019 2:15am
Have been studying charts for couple of days and It's starting to make sense! This needs patiance and I will probably demo this for a good 2-3 months before committing any money.

One question: Once price gets to a daily zone or weekly area, how long do you wait before jumping to the reverse train? Do you first wait for daily PA and then start looking for H4 PA? Many time though H4 gives you confirmation before daily and you miss the best opportunity. I have noticed most of the time banks create spikes to collect stop orders and then hunt them before turning. So do you try to avoid that or is that just part of the plan to accept some losses?
  • #7,133
  • Mar 14, 2019 2:32am Mar 14, 2019 2:32am
Quoting Electry
Have been studying charts for couple of days and It's starting to make sense! This needs patiance and I will probably demo this for a good 2-3 months before committing any money. One question: Once price gets to a daily zone or weekly area, how long do you wait before jumping to the reverse train? Do you first wait for daily PA and then start looking for H4 PA? Many time though H4 gives you confirmation before daily and you miss the best opportunity. I have noticed most of the time banks create spikes to collect stop orders and then hunt them before...
If price is in a daily zone you normally get a new H4/H1 zone pop up and a retest of the new zone. Sometimes price can spike the levels and then form a fresh zone.

One thing I am doing is taking a boat load of small losses every day (average of 40% - 50% win rate). A lot of probing entries where I will pull the plug fast for a small loss.

If I don't get follow through with momentum behind my PA entry then I'd rather be on the sidelines than sit through any draw-down. This is my defensive strategy to keep RR tight and guarantees a blown account can never happen.

Others might not be comfortable with this method of trade management but feel free to try it out (on a demo of course).

One thing you need to do is let a trade breath when you've got the PA entry and look to HTF for targets.
  • #7,134
  • Mar 14, 2019 2:40am Mar 14, 2019 2:40am
Quoting C-12
{quote} One thing I am doing is taking a boat load of small losses every day (average of 40% - 50% win rate).
Thank you for the comment.

Sounds good considering your R:R. By the way how do you plan your take profits? I seem to have a tough time getting good R:R because you could take profit on opposite weekly, daily or H4 zones so It's hard to figure out the R:R. If you consider every time frame then you rarely get any good R:R. Do you have some sort of strategy or do you go with your gut and trust that for example poorly created, maybe not fresh H4 zone will break and head for the daily?

One thing I was thinking is to wait for PA before exiting to see if the price will turn. Do you do that?
  • #7,135
  • Edited 4:23pm Mar 15, 2019 4:03pm | Edited 4:23pm
Quoting Electry
{quote} Thank you for the comment. Sounds good considering your R:R. By the way how do you plan your take profits? I seem to have a tough time getting good R:R because you could take profit on opposite weekly, daily or H4 zones so It's hard to figure out the R:R. If you consider every time frame then you rarely get any good R:R. Do you have some sort of strategy or do you go with your gut and trust that for example poorly created, maybe not fresh H4 zone will break and head for the daily? One thing I was thinking is to wait for PA before exiting...
The best plan is to go with D1 / H4 if entering on H1/M30 or M15, but you always want to get 2:1 or 3:1 out of some of the positions.

If a counter-trend zone forms in the opposite direction with PA then you can just take your money and run.

It doesn't always work out as you want it to. This week had quite a frustrating finish with no follow through behind anything.

I had high hopes for Kiwi blasting off, but ended up pulling the plug on most of this due to the weekend.

Will keep a piece on and see what happens.
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  • #7,136
  • Edited 4:38pm Mar 15, 2019 4:08pm | Edited 4:38pm
Same BS on UJ. This arrived in a D1 zone last night and moved less than 20 pips...

Going to pull the plug on one of these and minimise event risk on a weekend hold.

Not entirely sure adding these pairs is a good idea since my GU and EU intraday has taken a hit.
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  • #7,137
  • Mar 18, 2019 2:59am Mar 18, 2019 2:59am
Bought EU on Frankfurt open. Had a feeling we would be clearing those stops up high in to weekly supply. Now waiting for short opportunities.

USDX had a huge gap to the down side during weekend in my feed but how can it move if the underlying currency pairs did not move?

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  • #7,138
  • Mar 18, 2019 3:10am Mar 18, 2019 3:10am
Quoting Electry
Bought EU on Frankfurt open. Had a feeling we would be clearing those stops up high in to weekly supply. Now waiting for short opportunities. USDX had a huge gap to the down side during weekend in my feed but how can it move if the underlying currency pairs did not move? {image}
If using DXY charts which are a CFD they close every night / weekend and some of them close early on a Friday. This is where you can see these gaps when the market opens.

Good scalp to start the week there.
  • #7,139
  • Mar 18, 2019 12:24pm Mar 18, 2019 12:24pm
still nice work boss . thank a lot

(i set SL on H4)
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  • #7,140
  • Mar 18, 2019 12:56pm Mar 18, 2019 12:56pm
After a long time, back to this thread
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Ahmad Hassan
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