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Having a rough time with trades.

  • #21
  • Oct 12, 2006 3:18pm Oct 12, 2006 3:18pm
Hi

A good graph to work from.. Im assuming this is a daily graph.. One way to analyse graphs to see when you can enter is do an EOD [End of Day] analysis.

I know it is easy to say now looking at it.. saying well I could have gone in there and in there.. but that is one way to learn for the future.

Looking at the graph we can see that there are 2 major drops. 22 Aug and 19 Sept. These I would consider entry points as it was such a drop and when I start to notice that the uptrend is going back up again by keeping an eye on the 1H 2H and 4H charts and they all confirm that trend is UP.. I then re-enter.. that way I know that from an overall perspective.. I have entered the UP trend on a DIP. and that way I can minimise my risk..

Obviously with any trade there is that element of risk. and where that drop occured that may have been a reversal and taken the trend in the other direction. But that is why we have stop losses and we will win some and we will lose some.. just make sure that the when you set your SL and TL that you have a 1:2 or a 1:3 R:R ratio.
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #22
  • Oct 12, 2006 3:46pm Oct 12, 2006 3:46pm
thats very interesting. So you wait until multiple time frames align in a certain direction. That is a pretty decent system when I think about. Does the major trend take precedence over the smaller time frames? For example, on the 4hr is says uptrend, but on the 2h it says downtrend, is it safe to say that the market is in a retracement mode? The reason I ask is this is because to me it seems that forex is almost like a loop. While the larger time frames seem to be the "parent" of the other time frames and tell them where to go, the larger time frames are created by the smaller time frames at times which confuses me.

By the way, are there any indicators that you use to assist you with determining the trend? I know I can not win them all, I am just looking for help to try and better my entries.



thanks again.
  • #23
  • Oct 12, 2006 3:50pm Oct 12, 2006 3:50pm
Vder the trend is indeed up but I wouldnt go long there for several reasons

1st its a previous resistance zone based on the previous Doji and hammer bars fading the 5950 level... therefore going long there is inherently dangerous unless you put ur stop either really tight but then youll get stopped out on the retracement. A good support level is under 5750 this is a strong support area at an ema the blue line and most likely a fib retracement zone, USE FIBONACCI IT WORKS STUDY IT LIKE CRAZY AND APPLY IT TO THE CHARTS.

2nd at this point on the chart you can expect a retracement possibly to the 5850 zone before this thing takes off again but anything is possible which is another point you should keep in mind.

If I were you id read the fibonacci series of trading books and some books on candle patterns and patterns recognition. do a search on forex books.com or something like that youll find them or just do a google search.

all the currency pairs have there own unique behavior and may not act - react the way u expect them to, study one pair and master it or become really aquainted with it before trading multiple pairs. If you have to use a wide stop either do it on a demo or use a small mini account unless ur a whale then plunge away... wide stops off more protection unless you catch market turns at exactly the right time - like after a key TL break or 123 which what we have now on the eur/chf forming -- we need to see a break and close below the 5915 level but a more aggressive short trade can be taken the problem is its counter trend and you can get literally ripped apart if this thing decides to turn. be smart and use patience but dont be afraid to lose or pull the trigger u learn by losing not by winning all the time.
  • #24
  • Oct 12, 2006 3:56pm Oct 12, 2006 3:56pm
I am sorry, I did not see this post. I should have responded.

What I meant was if you draw a trend line on a daily timeframe chart with MT4. Then just reset the time frame of that very chart to 4 hour. Now, draw a trend line on the 4hour in another color.

As an example if the daily trend line (red) is in an uptrend, and you are looking at the 4 hour chart and the 4 hour trend line (blue) is up, but price has just broken down through the 4 hour uptrend line, I would not place a short here. I would wait for the price to either break back up through the 4 hour down trend line so you are buying the dip in a daily up trend, or I would wait for the price to drop below the daily uptrend line before I considered a short...

This way you are buying only when the daily trend is up and you are shorting only when the daily trend line is down.

I hope that is a little more clear. Scott


Quoting vder
thanks for the reply smjones and the rest . I am a little confused. My problem is that sometimes I cannot determine the daily trend. In my examples, It looks like the daily trend is heading upwards, so I buy that. In effect, the market is just waving downwards and so I lose out. (By the way, I do not know if i am using TDTL's at the moment. This is how I was taught to draw trendlines. I have just found out about TD and have some reading to do on that ).

How do I use your system to determine the daily trend? Do I look at the candle? How do you determine the trend if the candle is not fully formed as yet as is the example in my previous post?

Also, if I were to use mouteki's system, would the trendlines be slightly different on the 4hr than on the daily?


thanks.
  • #25
  • Oct 12, 2006 4:16pm Oct 12, 2006 4:16pm
Quoting vder
Ok, I thought I would post a picture or 2 to get some better feedback from you guys. Here is a daily chart of the EUR/CHF. Which was is it headed? It looks like an uptrend to me....but I have not been making the right decisions.

thanks.
Don't worry about where it's headed, you will never be able to predict the future. From what I see it's an uptrend so take advantage of the trendline bounce or the trend line break. Simple as that.
  • #26
  • Oct 12, 2006 4:33pm Oct 12, 2006 4:33pm
wow...some very good responses. Thank you all for your input. Enoc, I have been studying the fibonaccis, I took a course from MTI and it has been most useful. The fibonacci's do work except when the market is going to reverse. If I buy at that point, the fibonacci's wont help me if I have bought in the wrong direction. When the market is trending as it should, those fibonacci numbers are truly amazing. I will continue to study the fibs and examine the market until I better understand what is going on. The fibs have helped me stay out of a few trades. When the market has achieved its extension, I generally will wait and see if it retraces or extends further before I get into a trade. Right now when I see the market hit a fibo number, I will wait for the retracement and try and buy into it. Some of my decision making has been improving so I am not losing as much as I should week to week lol.

smjones, I am brand new to MT4 and do not know how to draw a trendline in the chart and then reset it to another time frame. I know I can change the periodicity of the charts. I will try and see if I can do this.

I will see if I can post another chart in a few mins just to get some extra feedback. Appreciate the help...truly do.
  • #27
  • Oct 12, 2006 5:10pm Oct 12, 2006 5:10pm
Quoting Mr Trend
Fun is for casinos where the drinks flow like honey and the women are skanky.
What an image
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #28
  • Oct 12, 2006 6:23pm Oct 12, 2006 6:23pm
vder, I'm really new at this too, so maybe I'm reading this wrong, but...

When I look at this chart I think you definately want to figure out how to plot the trend line here and also on the lower time frame chart. In fact -- stop trading until you figure out drawing the trendline. (check out the mouteki threads, those might help you).

I think what you want to do is NOT trade if one time frame is showing a continuation in the trend and another is showing a disruption in the trend.

In this chart, what concerns me (and why I really want to see a lower time frame like a 4 hour chart) is that on the right hand edge it appears to me like you are heading into a change of momentum -- that it's slowing down. This could be meaningless (and I could be wrong) but seeing what is happening on the 4 hour chart would really help.
  • #29
  • Oct 12, 2006 6:28pm Oct 12, 2006 6:28pm
Quoting smjones
Hi, I see you are using TDTLs. One thing you might do to stop trading against the trend is to make your trend like you have on the 4 hour chart. Then switch that chart to the daily and make the trend lines there as well.
Then switch back to the 4 hour and only take a trade when the 4 hour TDTL is broken, in the same direction as the Daily Trend line. This way you will be by definition buy the dips is a rally and selling the peaks in a decline of the daily trend.
Hi smjones

At this point the left side of my brain has absolutely degenerated. As we all know the left brain lobe is regulating the sperm count and the Moutetki trendlines. At this point I will refrain from responding to the first part of that function. On the other hand I have to admit that my comprehension of the TDTL in different time frames is still a mystery to me.

I wonder if you can help me here. So we draw the lines on the 4 hour chart and then the same on the daily chart. Let's take the USDJPY as of 3:30 pm EST today.On the 4 hour chart the current candle is just about touching the demand line and it will probably head south. The daily chart has broken through the supply line of Oct. 8 and is in an uptrend even though the last candle after the doji is red and will potentially head south as well. Looking at the daily chart what would be the signal that will convince me to go short on the 4 hour chart?

Yeah, yeah, I know there are no stupid questions... Well, if this is one, I win.

Thank you.
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  • #30
  • Oct 12, 2006 6:36pm Oct 12, 2006 6:36pm
Quoting milan47
Hi smjones

At this point the left side of my brain has absolutely degenerated. As we all know the left brain lobe is regulating the sperm count and the Moutetki trendlines. At this point I will refrain from responding to the first part of that function. On the other hand I have to admit that my comprehension of the TDTL in different time frames is still a mystery to me.

I wonder if you can help me here. So we draw the lines on the 4 hour chart and then the same on the daily chart. Let's take the USDJPY as of 3:30 pm EST today.On the 4 hour chart the current candle is just about touching the demand line and it will probably head south. The daily chart has broken through the supply line of Oct. 8 and is in an uptrend even though the last candle after the doji is red and will potentially head south as well. Looking at the daily chart what would be the signal that will convince me to go short on the 4 hour chart?

Yeah, yeah, I know there are no stupid questions... Well, if this is one, I win.

Thank you.

Sorry, wrong daily chart.... here it is.
Attached Image
  • #31
  • Oct 17, 2006 12:14pm Oct 17, 2006 12:14pm
Quoting TheRumpledOne
If you want to stop losing your money and start making money then THROW AWAY ALL OF YOUR INDICATORS!

All you need is to trade when the price crosses a HORIZONTAL LINE.

I trade when the price crosses the x.xx00, x.xx25, x.xx50 and x.xx75 levels. The white "+"s mark those levels

That's all I need.

If the daily candle is green, I go long and if it is red I go short.

IT IS THAT SIMPLE.

http://kreslik.com/forums/userpix/3_...t17Daily_1.jpg
Hmm.. It seems interesting but I dont understand what u mean. Is it a programme?
  • #32
  • Oct 17, 2006 12:15pm Oct 17, 2006 12:15pm
Quoting TheRumpledOne
If you want to stop losing your money and start making money then THROW AWAY ALL OF YOUR INDICATORS!

All you need is to trade when the price crosses a HORIZONTAL LINE.

I trade when the price crosses the x.xx00, x.xx25, x.xx50 and x.xx75 levels. The white "+"s mark those levels

That's all I need.

If the daily candle is green, I go long and if it is red I go short.

IT IS THAT SIMPLE.

http://kreslik.com/forums/userpix/3_...t17Daily_1.jpg
Yes but the candle can and will flucuate from red to green, then what?
  • #33
  • Oct 17, 2006 12:49pm Oct 17, 2006 12:49pm
Quoting TheRumpledOne
Is what a program?

Trading this method requires no indicators or programs.

All you need is a candle chart.
So, if it's not an indicator or program, where are the "+"s come from?
  • #34
  • Oct 17, 2006 1:01pm Oct 17, 2006 1:01pm
Quoting TheRumpledOne
This is a DAILY CHART.

There is only ONE level that will cause a daily candle to change color and that is the OPEN PRICE!

Do you understand?
Maybe I'm just confused, seeing the highs and lows of the candle, cant the price cross the open price several times causing the candle to change color?
  • #35
  • Oct 17, 2006 1:21pm Oct 17, 2006 1:21pm
Quoting TheRumpledOne
Yes.

But why does that confuse you?

If the open is 1.2510 and price goes up, then the candle is green. If it hits 1.2525, you go long.

If the open is 1.2510 and price goes down, then the candle is red. If it hits 1.2500, you go short.

Where's the confusion?
I'm probably just over analyizing this but say...

It opens at 1.2510 and goes up candle is green, it hits 1.2525 and you go long, it goes to 1.2537 and reverses. It goes down and crosses below 1.2510 the candle is now red, it hits 1.2500 and then stops.

What would the exit strategy be to grab the pips on the initial move up?

I'm just trying to grasp the method.
  • #36
  • Oct 17, 2006 2:23pm Oct 17, 2006 2:23pm
Quoting TheRumpledOne
If you are up 12 pips and allow the trade to reverse on you, then I don't know what to say other than YOU ARE BEING GREEDY!

Now, you want an exit strategy...

Simple...

If you look at 1 or 5 minute candles and they stop making higher highs, then exit.

If they make a lower low, exit.

If the candle is red, exit.

In other words, if the price stalls, it falls.

Don't be greedy.

Do you know what 3 pips a day compound can do for you?

Not to mention 4 or 5 pips!!

Please feel free to ask questions.

This is a BEGINNER'S FORUM.

I expect questions.

Don't go away until you understand.

When my answer helps you make money, then I have served you well.
Thank you for the clarification! What kind of stop are you using? Are you setting it at the prior horizontal line from your entry? Or is it discretionary depending on the smaller time frame?
  • #37
  • Oct 18, 2006 1:38pm Oct 18, 2006 1:38pm
interesting method, but I think that I will need to study the forex a bit more. I like the indicators in that they are in some way a reflection of price action although a tad bit lagged. In understanding how the market works, I will be able to figure out if the market is trending one way or another and make money from it. If this is your system, I am glad that you found something that works for you.

While I do believe in not overcomplicating something, oversimplifying items can have the same effect for me. I need to become competent so that I can simplify things.

Thanks for your input tho. How did you come up with your system rumpledone?
  • #38
  • Last Post: Oct 31, 2006 4:09pm Oct 31, 2006 4:09pm
i am a begginer too what i do is trying to keep it simple i have tried few methods the one and very simle is support &resistance on a daily chart when it hits the support line i go short when it passes the resistence go long its the same methodOrangeRoshan’s SRDC method for me it works great and i dont dont have to be ontop my pc all day.
Quoting vder
Wow! truly appreciate the feedback guys. Lets see, right now I am trading the major pairs. Just trying to get a feel of the forex and how it moves etc. I don't trade news as that is very risky for me at this point and I do not know any techniques (except for straddling which I don't really want to think about because reading from ppl on this forum, slippage tends to be a major issue with brokers).

One of the major problems I think I have right now is trying to tell which direction the market is going. I have attached a picture of what I am speaking about.

What do you guys do to determine market direction? Any use of indicators?

thanks
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