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  • #221
  • Feb 8, 2019 7:21am Feb 8, 2019 7:21am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} All people have to trade in stages. But they can't. They are too greedy, and in many cases too dumb. If you can't make money on demo - forget about Live account! If you can't make money with $100 account - forget about trading larger account! And the most interesting thing is that if you can actually make money consistently with $100 account you really don't need much more. All you need is patience. $100 with only 0.4% average daily profit can grow to over $1 000 000 in 10 years.
LOL Demotrading
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  • #222
  • Feb 8, 2019 10:45am Feb 8, 2019 10:45am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} All people have to trade in stages. But they can't. They are too greedy, and in many cases too dumb. If you can't make money on demo - forget about Live account! If you can't make money with $100 account - forget about trading larger account! And the most interesting thing is that if you can actually make money consistently with $100 account you really don't need much more. All you need is patience. $100 with only 0.4% average daily profit can grow to over $1 000 000 in 10 years.
I agree with most of your post...but how in the world are you going to make money on a $100 account?
  • #223
  • Edited Mar 12, 2019 11:03am Mar 11, 2019 9:01pm | Edited Mar 12, 2019 11:03am
After a long period of pain and frustration, my merged version of all the various strategies into one study collections is finally working fine in Sierra (i.e. bug free as per the intended design but only for Long directional trades, Short or S+L bidirectional is still broken)

Today marks the first day of forward testing in Sim Accurate and tick-based back testing is taking a huge amount of time so plan is to rely on my "simple chart replay" results for now as I am sick of sitting on my ass and thinking 10 ways to Sunday over this automation. After two weeks, if results are acceptable, I will start my live trades.

I have yet to decide how much to share as folks were only getting confused and puzzled by my concepts. Perhaps, I will let the results do all the talking (or make a mockery of myself if I go bust) lol
Regardless, there is no U turn from here on now. Large account is in the process of being funded. Small one is ready to go.

Typing this from my phone. When I go home, I will post today's results from today's entire NY session. It is still TBD what hours I will trade but design is flexible to trade any style I choose based on work/life balance.

More to come....
Staying in my lane...
  • #224
  • Mar 11, 2019 9:10pm Mar 11, 2019 9:10pm
Quoting VEEFX
After a long of pain and frustration, my final merged version of all the various strategies into one study collections is Sierra Charts is finally working fine (i.e. bug free as per the intended design) Today marks the first day of forward testing in Sim Accurate and tick-based back testing is taking a huge amount of time so plan is to rely on my "simple chart replay" results for now as I am sick of sitting on my ass a d thinking 10 ways to Sunday over this automation. After two weeks, if results are acceptable, I will start my live trades. I have...
how much you selling for?..


j/k looking forward to live testing with maahnaaaay!
  • #225
  • Edited Mar 12, 2019 11:08am Mar 11, 2019 9:12pm | Edited Mar 12, 2019 11:08am
Makiig a memo of mental notes while I am away...please don't quote any of my posts until I am done editing

 

  1. Measuring of Coast Line using Mandelbrot (I could not do recursive logic in Sierra so had to implement my own technique)
  2. I began this journey with a simple research problem if you recall..."How to catch the entire leg of a trending move?" Or most of it...using the principles of OC.
  3. How to interpret universality and neutrality within any market condition........
  4. How to quantify a transition from trending to rangebound phase (ongoing research)
  5. How to manage downside risk without tight SLs or exploit upside potential without fixed TPs
  6. Map of USA - a "Market's journey" from San Francisco to New York within the context of OC Framework (or I should say west coast to east coast)
  7. Current State design Flaws and limitations. I ran out of time to complete the entire work.

The initial intent of this thread was to walkthru the entire System Development Life Cycle process of what it really takes to build a robust and comprehensive strategy, the design framework to explore, discover and exploit an edge, research and analysis of underlying data and the tedious and repetitive nature of battling with the odds of finding a positive expectancy strategy. I wanted to take this journey deep down in my structured thought processes on what/how/when to self-talk into doing something as part of this journey. Unfortunately, it became too mumbo-jumbo for many to follow. Discouraged (and partly because it became too time-consuming for me), I had to discontinue.
I am hoping to share what I wanted to share initially in the next coming weeks before I go live. Once I go live, discussion and interaction will most likely pause until I have some decent stats to share.

And finally, as always, I reserve the right to delete my posts before they expire as and when I feel appropriate. Anyone is free to copy/save for personal reference if they like. I just prefer my content to not linger forever in the world wide waste as this forum is my ONLY online footprint in the world of social media. Please try not to "quote" my post if it says I am going to delete it. I do have a compulsion thing so delete is my way to expressing my opinion :-

P.S. This is not a System Strategy thread or a Personal Trading Journal thread. This is my HOME in the swampfactory so be nice to me :-)

Staying in my lane...
  • #226
  • Edited Mar 12, 2019 11:10am Mar 11, 2019 9:15pm | Edited Mar 12, 2019 11:10am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} how much you selling for?.. j/k looking forward to live testing with maahnaaaay!
I know you are joking but there is no selling involved...not in futures without getting my ass thrown in a 6*4 cell so hopefully folks will apprcleciate my time spent here. This is my hard work and sweat and nothing more than my kids to reap the benefits after I am gone (assuming it will last more than a week lol)

Edit: this still remains mostly a RESEARCH ENDEAVOR for me (i.e. Hobby/passive income) as replacing my income with trading is far from a distant possibility until I am able to quit or retire.

And if anyone has any doubts, I make over 6 times average median income of family of four in USA. I will have to trade big lots to come close to replacing my current income. With that said, I am always optimistic and hopeful :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #227
  • Edited 11:17am Mar 12, 2019 12:45am | Edited 11:17am
Quoting robots4me
@VEEFX -- I have a newbie question. I don't have your trading experience, so, I hope you don't mind. Before getting to my question, let me preface it with a few comments so you'll better understand where I'm coming from... 1. I've read some of your other posts where you sort of describe your system. I'm a pretty technical guy, but when I read what you are attempting to accomplish it makes my head hurt. 2. We've both read posts where people complain about conspiracies and market manipulation. I don't really buy into that -- but even if I did, I don't...
I had said I would return and respond to this post. Not sure what is the story behind your temporary suspension but regardless, I owe you a response so here it is. My entire manual journey has been EXTREMELY simple since my introduction into trading stocks in the last 1990s. Believe me when I say this... I was making double digit annual gains just with buy and hold of high tech stocks of my clients and software/hardware vendors during the tech boom. Working for a big5 consulting firm and road warrior every week for over a decade, I was highly in tune with all the recent startups and innovation in the Silicon Valley and my "strategy" was simply to "buy stocks of company willing to spend top dollars to hire my consulting firm"... believe me, we were not cheap and my hourly rate during the late 90s was in the $500/hour rate! The tech boom was CRAZY HOT! This continued until 2000 with the bust but still came out ahead and another bust in 2002/03 then I saw another in 2006 which made me think seriously about active trading to limit drawdown and reduce recovery during recessions. Then came FX and got stuck with it again. Being a technologist, I was a avid believer in staying away from algos until 2015. I was a manual trader/investor from 1996 - 2015. Being burnt out with excruciatingly slow recovery from drawdowns and blown accounts, when I finally became breakeven++, I paused and wore my quant hat on to take the time to understand what went on with my trading journey. Then came a lot of realizations (most of which are still in my bookmarked posts)

Fast forward, I would not trade solely manual as I do not have the psychological profile to deal with work/life balance and be in the "zone" that is 100%. I am saving that for when I retire or quit and go fulltime. Automation (and not automated algo) suits me well for my profile to take a emotion and distraction out of my life. Most of my advanced stuff developed are simply toggle switches in my cockpit to use as tools to limit screentime.

Regarding simple versus complex, I could not find a single OHCL strategy in FX that works well on one pair and one timeframe without doing some MTF analysis or anything outside of just price and time. Remember, back in 2015, I was searching for answers to my own slower account growth so I was wearing a completely different hat painted with negativity and pessimistic POV. The day I chose to move to Futures, I have a completely different journey and perspective to this date laid out in finest level of detail what I want to do and what pitfalls I HAD to avoid with my automation. I spent 2.5 years in developing the most advanced brute force FX strategy. Here, in Futures, I decided to look at only ONE instrument, only ONE session to find a strategy/edge under 3 months. I am on target to meet my goal of 4/1 with almost 65% of my strategy development time going into stupid shit that Sierra does with their studies and just good o'd troubleshooting and labor intensive testing. I have over 80 versions of my study collection (i.e. template in MT4) as I have become paranoid of doing some minor change and breaking this automation. As Nik would agree, troubleshooting 200+ studies is a nightmare. I still have some massive limitations in my design but I have run out of time and a decision is a decision that I can NEVER turn my back against! I also made a promise to keep it simple and hence, purposefully did not get into spreadsheet studies to avoid getting sucked into implementing many ideas
I still have a lot of ideans in my treasure chest waiting for me to try :-

Anyways, not sure if you will even see this post but hoping others would take some perspective from it
Staying in my lane...
  • #228
  • Edited 11:28am Mar 12, 2019 1:27am | Edited 11:28am
Reading Hilmy's post and what goes on at the factory and scammers thread, I have to be careful not to sound like some asshole wanting to sell software. I will focus only on the core principles of what I have incorporated. Besides, I have been trying to leave a factory for many years now and at one point, I was desperate to get permanent suspension. I even figured out a way to downgrade my red flag status for that very specific reason so other red flag bearers who are pissed can use it against me. Perhaps, I have chosen this to be my first and last online footprint, deep down in my bowels, I feel I need to contribute of some value. Perhaps it is just a waste of time being here. Let's see how it goes...

Some Stats:

  1. Only standard delivered functionality that comes with Sierra is employed. No custom stuff so what I will share can be developed by anyone with a creative mind to find their own edge in the market.
  2. Total Study count: 200+
  3. Account Management functions: quite limited in Sierra. (note: There is a whole lot I do not know about within Sierra like spreadsheets or ASCIL or C++. My reference to Sierra is all just standard studies, Alerts and trading based on alert conditions)
  4. Strategies:

    1. 4 DFM (Divergence from Mean or Trend Following)
    2. 4 RTM (Reversion to Mean for rangebound)
    3. 1 Pullback (either TF or counter TF)... mostly within the Range targeting either reversals or continuations

Profit Management: 8 distinct techniques based on strategy deployed and market condition
Loss Management: 7 distinct techniques based on strategy deployed. I will most likely have only one universal loss mgmt applied to the overall OC Framework once the account grows and once I am able to leverage realized gains towards risk management
Position Management: Only one trade allowed at a time. Only one contract allowed at a time (for now)
Daily Trade volume: varies based on strategy and life cycle of trade.. as only one trade is allowed at a time (keeping with the theme of KISS. In FX, I was running 200-300 open positions :-)

Flaws/Limitations:

  1. My coastline strategy is a little bit brute force measuring moves and distance based on angles so some simple geometry is involved which, by design (or limitation of Sierra perhaps??) results in some inconsistencies. I think this is acceptable to me personally as there are no two coast lines exactly same so each time, it will yield different trade volume or SL/TP sizes etc. This conforms to the natural elements found in markets so I am hoping this does not become a bid deal for me. This is my core strategy to follow strong trends. When it works, it works great. When it does not, I have no idea why so manual intervention would have to do for now.
  2. I have tested only LONG Directional Strategy to yield in positive outcome. I am not done with testing/tweaking. I am only sticking with the timelines and this week dictates I start forward testing so time to go for a spin and see what happens
  3. Short Directional strategy has a bug somewhere that I can't seem to find. Sierra required studies to be cloned for Buy and Sell entry and exit orders (8 studies per trade) I will have to figure this out because Long-only strategy becomes "Reversal Strategy on steroids" in a downtrend as it tries to catch the falling knife on steep correction moves. Not Good so I will be trading Long-Only direction until then
  4. You will, at times, see open and closed trades at the same time with 1 or 2 Tick profit or loss. That is a result of applying brute force to stay with the trend for as long as possible. It could also be a bug but I dont think so.
  5. I am focused on taking profit and running with it. developing a piggybank for risk allocation is far more important to my goal than a perfect RR per trade. OC framework is designed to absorb some shocks but I have seen large losses (100+T) running a uni-directional strategy. This can be addressed only via manual intervention until I have my L+S strategy working correctly per my design.

Staying in my lane...
  • #229
  • Edited Mar 13, 2019 2:10am Mar 12, 2019 3:32am | Edited Mar 13, 2019 2:10am
3/12/19 SIM/Forward test:
All strategies turned on and running in Long-Only mode during the entire NYSE session
OC=NYSE Session (for now but it could be any duration due to the fractal nature of markets)

Observations/Notes: This was a perfect day for any Trend following strategy. Coast Line measurement worked quite nicely. Transition from trending to ranging phase did not cause any drawdown because I was only looking for long entries. Sharing the entire screen just for the first time as hiding studies is painful and one of my lessons learnt from FX was not to mess with code during live trading session. I am also just afraid of breaking it and then spend hours troubleshooting the darn thing.

Clarification: When I say Brute Force or trapping the price or any such terminology, I mean killing an ant with a machine gun :-) With all strategies turned on at each tick, I am measuring every nook and corner of the coast line navigating thru the curves and ditches and trend is formed. My saving grace is only one position at a time. If this criteria was not in place, each strategy would attempt to open 100s of trades based on the trigger condition on each tick and at candle close. My saving grace is also the TP.
Interpretation: Price went from San Francisco via PCH 1 to Seattle and moved inland sideways via Chicago and ended in Detroit
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Staying in my lane...
  • #230
  • Mar 12, 2019 5:32am Mar 12, 2019 5:32am
Good work Vee. Share the knowledge so it grow and benefits the community.

subscribed.

PS: don't delete posts
  • #231
  • Mar 12, 2019 6:30am Mar 12, 2019 6:30am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} That's crazy! I have owned Alienware(Dell), Sony, Lenovo and HP. Four kids and two wives later, only the HP models lived. This include a particularly clumsy wife who had no concept of tech killing my Lenovo by knocking it off the couch and it falling just right. She killed a Sony Vaio the exact same way. My Lenovo's always had connector issues. I never got into Asus or Acer because my branding had been set by the time they started building decent machines. Thanks for the tip about Costco. I will add that to my list. https://store.hp.com/us/en/pdp/hp-sp...E&gclsrc=aw.ds...
Nothing beats the Alienware(Dell) laptop. It's a machine with strong edges and protective technology. Built for gaming.

I have one and only use it during travel, or as a secondary machine for backtesting.

Kids and wife are not allowed to touch my laptop or my PC, they got their own; which they broken the keys in the keyboard several times. Even attached keyboards did not last with the kids.
  • #232
  • Edited 9:57pm Mar 12, 2019 10:39am | Edited 9:57pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} Nothing beats the Alienware(Dell) laptop. It's a machine with strong edges and protective technology. Built for gaming. I have one and only use it during travel, or as a secondary machine for backtesting. Kids and wife are not allowed to touch my laptop or my PC, they got their own; which they broken the keys in the keyboard several times. Even attached keyboards did not last with the kids.
Thanks AD and agree about kids. Both my kids are on to their 3rd laptop. I made my daughter pay for her MacBook and it hasn't broken in last 15 months. Funny how things work lol. I literally have a closet filled with some 8+ old and broken laptops.

Could you please share the link to your laptop specs? I bought the latest MSi gaming laptop with the new intelI cpu few weeks ago, prioritized Sierra into running only in turbo mode and my back testing still takes an hour to run per one day of 8hour session. There is no CPU or memory or disk IO spike so I am not sure what else I can do to speed up my back testing. I am running OS and Sierra all on SSD drive as well. I think I will have to trim the fat out of my automation as there are over 35 studies I use to understand the market Dynamics in relation to my mode of operation.
Regarding deletes, I will try to limit. It helps to share my thoughts and opinions openly without much pressure or proof-reading. Frankly I would not even post if the delete feature is taken away lol

Running backtest since 2am using "Calculate at every Tick" mode and my laptop is not even churning above 15% CPU. Not sure why this becomes such a drag. It's like cool as a cucumber with no fan speed to keep to cpu from burning etc.
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Staying in my lane...
  • #233
  • Mar 12, 2019 10:55am Mar 12, 2019 10:55am
i have laptop and desktop for gaming.

i also have ps4 pro.

that's all bye
  • #234
  • Mar 12, 2019 1:04pm Mar 12, 2019 1:04pm
Quoting VEEFX
Reading Hilmy's post and what goes on at the factory and scammers thread, I have to be careful not to sound like some asshole wanting to sell software. I will focus only on the core principles of what I have incorporated. Besides, I have been trying to leave a factory for many years now and at one point, I was desperate to get permanent suspension. I even figured out a way to downgrade my red flag status for that very specific reason so other red flag bearers who are pissed can use it against me. Perhaps, I have chosen this to be my first and last...
Yeah VEE, I don't know who would accuse you of going commercial. Even if you did, I would actually look into it. You did not become a sensation overnight. You cut your teeth in public. No mysteries. No big me, little you. None of that. So I would not worry about being targeted by the FF secret service. Everyone who has been on this forum longer than a day knows that you are the real deal as far as doing the process goes. Trading is not about signals, it is a process, and you do your due diligence.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #235
  • Mar 12, 2019 1:34pm Mar 12, 2019 1:34pm
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} " you are the real deal as far as doing the process goes"... so true "Trading is not about signals, it is a process".... so false
No, it is not false farmer. Think of your crop. Just as there is a time to plant and to harvest, there is a time take signals, and to ignore them. Knowing when to do this is the process of trading.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #236
  • Mar 12, 2019 1:34pm Mar 12, 2019 1:34pm
Quoting VEEFX
Reading Hilmy's post and what goes on at the factory and scammers thread, I have to be careful not to sound like some asshole wanting to sell software. I will focus only on the core principles of what I have incorporated. Besides, I have been trying to leave a factory for many years now and at one point, I was desperate to get permanent suspension. I even figured out a way to downgrade my red flag status for that very specific reason so other red flag bearers who are pissed can use it against me. Perhaps, I have chosen this to be my first and last...
Vee all I can say is WOW. You've taken a simple thing like trading (buy or sell) and complicated it so much in your mind that I am afraid you will never put on a live trade ever just saying
  • #237
  • Mar 12, 2019 3:25pm Mar 12, 2019 3:25pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} Vee all I can say is WOW. You've taken a simple thing like trading (buy or sell) and complicated it so much in your mind that I am afraid you will never put on a live trade ever just saying
I agree to some degree that Vee tends to complicate the algos little bit. i.e. you should keep each strategy simple and do one thing only. like range trading, pattern trading, breakouts, etc. once you get one strategy working profitably, launch it, and in your spare time, research more strategies.

it will be easier to maintain, diagnose problems, improve bits and pieces, and throw away dead strategies over time. kind of strategy factory.

dont try to put them all in one piece.
  • #238
  • Mar 12, 2019 3:30pm Mar 12, 2019 3:30pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks AD and agree about kids. Both my kids are on to their 3rd laptop. I made my daughter pay for her MacBook and it hasn't broken in last 15 months. Funny how things work lol. I literally have a closet filled with some 8+ old and broken laptops. Could you please share the link to your laptop specs? I bought the latest MSi gaming laptop with the new intelI cpu few weeks ago, prioritized Sierra into running only in turbo mode and my back testing still takes an hour to run per one day of 8hour session. There is no CPU or memory or disk IO...

its Alienware 17, intel i7, 32GB ram, 8GB graphics card, 1TB SSD.

however I recommend you backtest on a PC. usually a PC with the same specs as a laptop is much faster.
  • #239
  • Mar 13, 2019 12:56am Mar 13, 2019 12:56am
hey vee just wanted to say thanks for emphasizing the Opportunity cycle theory. It really does resonate with me as I have observed this with my own trading. It's actually a good risk management tool since I have seen how my strategy breaks down after that initial profitable cycle.

OC is integrated into my strategy now.
  • #240
  • Mar 13, 2019 2:48am Mar 13, 2019 2:48am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Yeah VEE, I don't know who would accuse you of going commercial. Even if you did, I would actually look into it. You did not become a sensation overnight. You cut your teeth in public. No mysteries. No big me, little you. None of that. So I would not worry about being targeted by the FF secret service. Everyone who has been on this forum longer than a day knows that you are the real deal as far as doing the process goes. Trading is not about signals, it is a process, and you do your due diligence.
Appreciate it. I had some private email exchange on this topic and although the discussion was respectful, I still don't think commercial section and scammers thread deserves a home out here. All it takes is one post for those guys to label you a commercial, block you off and then continue to make a mockery to entertain themselves for a very long time. Although an anonymous profile, I still view it malice towards someone's reputation. It will remain in google searches for your grandkids and their kids. My wife and kids are aware of my profile name here and how much time I spend out here. How is that not concerning to anyone? I am blocked from that thread. How is it fair on me or anyone else blocked out? Very disappointed to receive email from a recent clean up request that was not honored. How is it okay for a commercial member to use whatever vulgarity he or she chooses? There is no application of terms of conduct in their own commercial thread and this is coming straight from the moderators. It is just sad and unfortunate place to continue have meaningful dialogue. The fact is expecting anyone to conduct themselves with some "professional" decency is a fallacy on this site. If my cleanup requests are not honored, under no uncertain terms, I would wish to continue my participation. Sorry for the rant.... I just get wired up on stupid shit :-(
Staying in my lane...
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