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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #1,461
  • Oct 17, 2006 5:12am Oct 17, 2006 5:12am
It depends on the time frame. short trem yes. on a daily, weekly, monthly we are clearly in an uptrend on GBPUSD still. And probably will be until the dollar loses some strength. Where price will end up is not my gig... though...

Quoting c1ro
So, it's kinda reversal now?
  • #1,462
  • Oct 17, 2006 5:18am Oct 17, 2006 5:18am
dear itme..
is AudJPY still short? what price target projection? or according to your wave is this pair will rise again like yesterday?
thanks

waskito
  • #1,463
  • Oct 17, 2006 6:26am Oct 17, 2006 6:26am
Quoting itme
Tuesday October 17 at 6:00 ET

Trade Signal #205A Sell GBP/USD at 1.8675

Stop is 1.8705

Target #1 is 1.8450

Risk is 35 pips

Reward is 220 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 6.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

_____________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Thursday October 12 at 22:15 ET

Adjust stop on Trade Signal #205 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8580 to 1.8665
_____________________________________________

Wednesday October 11 at 6:00 ET

Trade Signal #205 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8580
Stop is 1.8623
Target #1 is 1.8450
Risk is 47 pips
Reward is 126 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 2.7 to 1

For research purposes only.

This week's data barrage begins in earnest today with several key economic reports slated for release from the UK, Eurozone, US and Canada. Given market focus over global interest differentials, inflation data will provide further insight on central banks' decisions.
HI Itme,

Wats happening with your trades this week....????

Thanks
  • #1,464
  • Oct 17, 2006 8:56am Oct 17, 2006 8:56am
GBP/USD climbed to the 61.8% Fibo. area around 1.8737. 8:30-9:00 NY Time
Placed SELL on GBP/USD at 1.8727 just above the R2 Daily.

Target Hit on AUD/JPY SELL at 89.44 + 24 pips.
Now I am waiting for the climb back up to 89.96 for another Entry Order SELL position. Beyond that I have 1 more Entry order at 90.35 waiting to enter SELL position.

AUD/CAD opened SELL position at .8582 looks to be holding at this R1 Daily area, this SELL may take some time to lose it's momentum. Expect it to climb to the R2 Daily at .8617 before we see it drop back, and eventually head down. This should happen by Late Wednesday or Early Thursday.

Monarch
  • #1,465
  • Oct 17, 2006 9:28am Oct 17, 2006 9:28am
Quoting monarch
GBP/USD climbed to the 61.8% Fibo. area around 1.8737. 8:30-9:00 NY Time
Placed SELL on GBP/USD at 1.8727 just above the R2 Daily.

Target Hit on AUD/JPY SELL at 89.44 + 24 pips.
Now I am waiting for the climb back up to 89.96 for another Entry Order SELL position. Beyond that I have 1 more Entry order at 90.35 waiting to enter SELL position.

AUD/CAD opened SELL position at .8582 looks to be holding at this R1 Daily area, this SELL may take some time to lose it's momentum. Expect it to climb to the R2 Daily at .8617 before we see it drop back, and eventually head down. This should happen by Late Wednesday or Early Thursday.

Monarch
Hey monarch, so, u think GBP/USD will back to previous bear trend? I think that too. But as far as I see the pair still has more room to the upside. What do u think?
  • #1,466
  • Oct 17, 2006 9:40am Oct 17, 2006 9:40am
Hey c1ro

I think the GBP/USD has room to press the R3 Daily at 1.8770, I placed my sell at the R2 Daily area just in case. Itme has targeted GBP/USD to drop to 1.8450 which I believe we will see it get close to this. I set my target at 1.8527 for a +200 pip gain on the reversal, and my Stop Loss is at 1.8777.

We will see what happens when the Core CPI news comes out WED am, this should help decide where we we will end up by weeks end.

Monarch
  • #1,467
  • Oct 17, 2006 1:58pm Oct 17, 2006 1:58pm
Tuesday October 17 17:00 ET

Adjust stop on Trade Signal #203 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4274 to 1.4341. We entered our short trade on this pair at the top of the "a" of the "abc", mistaking it for the top of the "c". The recent high of 1.4315 may be the real top of the upwards corrective wave, or it may still ascend to about 1.4325 before reversing. The recent high and the 1.4325 projected possible high are two high probability reversal points.

________________________________________________

Previous trade signal and commentary:

Update Trade Signal #203 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4274 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Friday, October 13 at 12:45 ET

Our trade signal #203 shorting EUR/CAD pinned the top of the last uptrend to the exact pip at 1.4274. Subsequently the price fell to 1.4200, 74 pips lower this morning, two days later.

EUR/CAD has been range bound to an unusual extent over the past two days. It is therefore likely to shoot strongly out of this narrow range in the near future, either down or up. We aren't certain of which, but our "money" is on the short side of the "bet", and we positioned ourself in this trade in the most ideal price position.

Perhaps USD/CAD will fall strongly, while EUR/USD consolidates at the lower level it is now approaching, which would cause EUR/CAD to fall strongly. Owing to its lesser liquidity, USD/CAD moves with greater volatility than EUR/CAD.
_________________________________________________

Previous trade signal:
Wednesday October 11 at 6:00 ET

Trade Signal #203 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4274
Stop is 1.4305
Target is 1.4075
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 189 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.6 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #1,468
  • Oct 17, 2006 5:20pm Oct 17, 2006 5:20pm
So, from what I am reading here, I take it that most members here is still of the opinion that GBP/USD will go down sometime here in the next couple of days?
  • #1,469
  • Oct 17, 2006 5:37pm Oct 17, 2006 5:37pm
Opinion is only as good as to what you really believe!

I believed GBP/USD was coming down, so I took a SELL on GBP/USD at 1.8727, and since then it has went down 20 pips, the momentum GBP/USD has had today may not have enough BULL left to climb higher.

As they say "what goes up, must come down."

That is where I stand - waiting for the coming down so to say.

Monarch
  • #1,470
  • Oct 17, 2006 5:44pm Oct 17, 2006 5:44pm
Take ur pips now because this baby is gonna keep going up the rest of the week. We are in 1 wave on daily chart GBPUSD should go to 1.9050http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon12.gif

Quoting monarch
Opinion is only as good as to what you really believe!

I believed GBP/USD was coming down, so I took a SELL on GBP/USD at 1.8727, and since then it has went down 20 pips, the momentum GBP/USD has had today may not have enough BULL left to climb higher.

As they say "what goes up, must come down."

That is where I stand - waiting for the coming down so to say.

Monarch
  • #1,471
  • Oct 17, 2006 6:10pm Oct 17, 2006 6:10pm
Quoting monarch
Opinion is only as good as to what you really believe!

I believed GBP/USD was coming down, so I took a SELL on GBP/USD at 1.8727, and since then it has went down 20 pips, the momentum GBP/USD has had today may not have enough BULL left to climb higher.

As they say "what goes up, must come down."

That is where I stand - waiting for the coming down so to say.

Monarch
actually fixme1too is probly right.

and in forex...what goes down must go up also. And gbp has trended down for a while. On the other side the $ has gone up for a while and needs a large correction at best.

Lows can be retested as wave 2 can retrace 100% of 1. But don't get too happy on shorts. Or longs. Untill GBP gets past the 55 day ema at 1.8757.

It has dropped below 100 day ema wich is 1.8709 range.

look for support at 1.8660 and 1.8620

Dave
  • #1,472
  • Edited 8:54am Oct 18, 2006 12:40am | Edited 8:54am
Wednesday October 18 at 3:45 ET

Trade Signal #205B Sell GBP/USD at 1.8742

Stop is 1.8773

 Target #1 is 1.8450

Risk is 35 pips

Reward is 288 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 8.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

p.s. - after a nap, I woke up to check this "trade" but the price had not risen to hit our entry price. After checking why, I found that I had made a miscalculation. The most probable reversal value in this situation according to our system is 1.8736, not 1.8742 which I employed as an entry price yesterday. And the price rose to exactly 1.8736. So chalk one up for our trend reversal prediction methodology, zero for operator accuracy. I was giving more emphasis to the Elliott Wave than I should have. The fifth micro-wave upwards was a failed wave, which is what I thought it seemed to be when I did my wave count. However, out of fuzzy logic I assumed it would come up one more time a little higher than the Wave 3, which it often does, but sometimes doesn't. In this case it didn't, indicating a bearish bias.

The price of GBP/USD has subsequently fallen to 1.8663, 73 pips below what our entry price should have been. Our Wave Count puts us in the third leg (down) of the first downwards wave of the fifth larger downwards wave of the "b" leg (down) of an upwards "b" wave that started December 28, 2005, part of a larger downwards "B" wave that started, coincidentally, December 15, 2004.
_________________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:

 Tuesday October 17 at 6:00 ET

Trade Signal #205A Sell GBP/USD at 1.8675
Stop is 1.8705
Target #1 is 1.8450
Risk is 35 pips
Reward is 220 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.3 to 1

For research purposes only.
_____________________________________

Thursday October 12 at 22:15 ET

Adjust stop on Trade Signal #205 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8580 to 1.8665
_____________________________________________

Wednesday October 11 at 6:00 ET

Trade Signal #205 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8580
Stop is 1.8623
Target #1 is 1.8450
Risk is 47 pips
Reward is 126 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 2.7 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #1,473
  • Oct 18, 2006 8:22am Oct 18, 2006 8:22am
Quoting fixme1too
Take ur pips now because this baby is gonna keep going up the rest of the week. We are in 1 wave on daily chart GBPUSD should go to 1.9050http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon12.gif
Just registered an easy +60 pips from the Sell on GBP/USD 1.8727 that went down and hit my target at 1.8667. I look for GBP/USD to go down further to the S1 Daily 1.8629.
Sometimes if you get out of a position from what others say, you may end up with no pips at all, basically you are trading what others believe will happen, and not trading what you believe is going to happen.
"All things that go up, Must come down." We now wait for the bottom to hit!

Monarch
  • #1,474
  • Oct 18, 2006 8:35am Oct 18, 2006 8:35am
dear itme..

according to your predicted GBP/USD will short at 1.8742, but now its has moved down at 1.8673, is 1.8742 will hit again for drop to 1.8450? or am i just to late for short at that price?
AUDJPY has climbed to my short price 89.77, where i placed my stop loss now, still 90.26?
in about NZDJPY? where price to short as good as your wave now?
thanks a lot itme your elliot is still good for me.

waskito
  • #1,475
  • Oct 18, 2006 8:43am Oct 18, 2006 8:43am
Monarch,

When u sold Cable@8727 , your profit projection is determined b4 or after u initiated the short position?
What method do you use to determine (or pre-determine)appropriate profit-taking (in this case, it is aggressive intraday trade; its like buying the bottoms & selling the tops).

Thanks.
CCI decipherer
  • #1,476
  • Oct 18, 2006 9:11am Oct 18, 2006 9:11am
To answer your question concerning Exit targets:

I will enter a trade usually at a Bottom/Top of a Trend/Wave and place a 100 pip target. As the trade progresses, I will monitor the position and if things get held up at a Resistance or a Support I will usually take my profits here.

"I trade for the Meat between the Bread, leaving the edges on the table helps protect my profits."

I then consider a Re-Entry for that position depending on my indicators and continue with my original position, trying to add to my profits.

Itme puts a great signal out, and I usually take about 1/2 of his signals. (Margin - Money Management plays a big part)

By the end of the week you will see profits add up, and you will gain confidence that Itme knows what he is talking about!

I place a 50 pip stop on most positions, some times more, depending upon the Bottom or Top that is near my entry. I monitor my positions hourly, and keep up with what is happening with other currencies that may pertain to my positions.

Hope this helped, just find where you feel comfortable, make good trades, and hang on for the ride.

Monarch
  • #1,477
  • Oct 18, 2006 9:17am Oct 18, 2006 9:17am
Dear Waskito (and others),

We unfortunately missed our entry on short GBP/USD by 6 pips due to my error of judgement as explained above in the p.s. to comment # 1474 above.

Regarding AUD/JPY, our last comment is here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...JPY#post120098

We expect a rise to 90.14 to 90.50, the top of which would constitute a good low risk / high reward trade set-up.
  • #1,478
  • Oct 18, 2006 9:32am Oct 18, 2006 9:32am
Quoting monarch
GBP/USD climbed to the 61.8% Fibo. area around 1.8737. 8:30-9:00 NY Time
Placed SELL on GBP/USD at 1.8727 just above the R2 Daily.

Target Hit on AUD/JPY SELL at 89.44 + 24 pips.
Now I am waiting for the climb back up to 89.96 for another Entry Order SELL position. Beyond that I have 1 more Entry order at 90.35 waiting to enter SELL position.

AUD/CAD opened SELL position at .8582 looks to be holding at this R1 Daily area, this SELL may take some time to lose it's momentum. Expect it to climb to the R2 Daily at .8617 before we see it drop back, and eventually head down. This should happen by Late Wednesday or Early Thursday.

Monarch
itme, I concur with the AUD/JPY - I still have my orders in from last week. I am "patiently" (Key word in Trading) waiting for the Top. I am taking 2 seperate positions to take advantage in case the top does not reach 90.50.

On the AUD/CAD position - it went to a high of .8611 just 6 pips of my expected turning point, and it is now looking to head in our SELL direction for now.

Thanks for the information you are putting out.

Monarch
  • #1,479
  • Edited 9:58am Oct 18, 2006 9:36am | Edited 9:58am
Thanks, Monarch, for your comment above. This is the most detailed comment by someone actually trading incorporating some aspect of what my "experiment" is leading towards. Monarch apparently takes note of our trade signals, but doesn't accept them as finished products, but rather as inputs into his own trading system which is adapted to his own knowledge and approach.

As those who have read this thread know, we are learning and experimenting, and creating experimental "trade signals" as part of our research and skill development. The process is slow and painstaking, but enjoyable and fruitful for us. We have always discouraged people from "believing" in our "trade signals" because we have not yet clarified all the subtleties of our model and neither have we developed the requisite skill to employ it effectively. But at the same time, we know that our model has a great deal of merit. However, the "devil is in the details" in our situation.

Generating a profitable trade signal is a challenging task, because #1 and most important, one must have a general idea of what the market is likely to do, which in our case is estimating the turnaround point of larger trends. Secondly, one must be able to accurately determine the best entry point, stop and target, each of which is a formidable task to accomplish even once, let alone time and again.

So once again we re-iterate: exercise great caution in this market. Never become complacent. It is extremely difficult to predict the reversal points, let alone predict accurately. Do not believe in the accuracy of anyone's trade signals. Make your own independent determinations. Take responsibility for your own trades. This is a project in development, and we certainly haven't ironed out all the bugs yet.
  • #1,480
  • Oct 18, 2006 10:13am Oct 18, 2006 10:13am
Wednesday October 18 at 13:00 ET

We were apparently stopped out in our Trade Signal #212 Buy USD/JPY at 118.65 In retrospect, it is obvious to us that the entry point was not valid from an Elliott Wave perspective, as there had only been three completed waves of five, and thus another correction and impulse wave was inevitable.

However, our current stop adjustment method with the correction factor at 15 for USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF and 10 for EUR/USD would have allowed us to squeak by by only two or three pips, without increasing our stop to more than 44 pips, which is acceptable.

So according to our trading system, we are still in this USD/JPY long trade, even though we entered prematurely.

In terms of our probable trend reversal system, our original entry price at 118.65 was a high probability reversal value. However, the actual turnaround point at 118.31 is a higher order conservative high probability reversal value. The highest probability reversal price was about 118.20 which was not met.

A more conservative strategy would have been to wait for a higher probability reversal price with a more clearly complete Elliott Wave count.

_______________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Tuesday October 17 at 5:00 ET
Trade Signal #212 Buy USD/JPY at 118.65
Stop is 118.45
Target is 120.00
Risk is 23 pips
Reward is 130 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.6 to 1

For research purposes only.
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