C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

Yep.

Make what you can out of this

Unfortunately got some losses shorting on EU midzones today (without PA) but wasn't too bad..

With GU i have a love hate relationship, more of a love relationship this year. Close few shorts yesterday.

Coast to coast.

Hi C-12!

I just wanted to thank you for opening my eyes. I have been trying to get supply and demand trading to work for years now. First I watched all Sam Seidens videos and read through Kenneth Lee's thread years back and it has been a long journey. Many times I started to be profitable and then all of a sudden nothing seems to work and I always miss the big moves.

I had actually glanced through your thread once before and dissmissed it because of 1M trading and then again because of your "odd" entries because they are not pure Sam Seiden style pullback entries. However last week something made me read this thread more carefully and once I realized how you read price as it engulfs and make an entry I started to see the same spots you were seeing!

One key point I always dissmissed before was USDX and how important that is. I started to monitor the market with USDX and all of a sudden all seems so clear now.

I'll be posting my charts here from now on and get more involved with this thread but just wanted to thank you and I think this was the missing piece from my trading. I will demo this for a while because right now it feels too easy which is never a good thing

Made a late entry last evening down below and a new buy on UK market open. I saw m30 engulf on the open and bought the dip on m15.

USDX has room to drop and it seems m30 engulfed downside there.

Any thoughts?

hi boss

thanks

With knowledge comes great responsibility. These engulfs can be tricky to master and always need a higher TF reference / direction.

Glad to see a light bulb has been switched on.

Also a realization for me. I had my rules on m30 supply and demand for HH LL and I occasionally switched to D1 but now that I actually have D1 and H4 always open it's so much clearer. But maybe the biggest realization for me was to actually wait and see if the zone works before opening a trade.

I previously tried to wait for a new m30 zone in daily touch but then the price has already shot away...

keep trying

I'm stuck at the same spot for quite some time, too! What do you look for to assess the zone is likely to hold and likely to work ?
btw I don't buy into the "odds enhancers" theory... must be something more to it...

Well previously I would wait for a new zone on m30 and many times it would form but never come back (or when I zoom in to m15 or m5 I see the zone is already exhausted) and I miss the move.

Now, I have been reading this thread for only a week so please guys correct me if I'm wrong but as I uderstand now I should watch for USDX to see if it is alingned with the zone you are trading and take the engulf of the zone and not wait for a pullback. The engulf on LTF itself is an indicator that the HTF zone will hold. Ofcourse not always.

Also it seems that many trades happen in momentum. You see what direction USDX and the instument is heading and take engulfs in that direction. Previously I would wait for a zone and place an order and when they came back they would fail (because then the direction is reversed and the zone is mid move...)

So now I should wait for h4 engulf and check if USDX is also heading to the direction and then wait for m30/m15/m5 engulf and take that in momentum. Basicly I would see that price is going up on HTF and there is room to move and then wait for LTF action and take them aggressively as I know it will continue to that direction.

I too am sceptical about the odd enhancers and they didn't seem to work. Also some of the things made no sense. For example if you have a weekly zone formed wayyy back like in 2009, by Sam Seidens teachings there would be a stack of unfild orders there.. from 2009? And some times they would fail. Now that I understand and look for price action it makes more sense that propably banks just look that "ok it's time to sell/buy" and start unloading and you can see from price action on LTF that the zone is working.

Some good questions above. I wouldn't spend too much time focusing or worrying about any specific zone or if there are still orders left from 10 years ago. It is simply a sign post that you have a potential reversal.

What is more important is what D1/H4 is doing and whether you read the higher TF direction. If so then finding an LTF entry is a lot easier with engulfing continuation move or a pullback into a zone. If not, then flick to another pair until you find something that makes sense.

As you said, those midzones entries are very regular when the trend has changed, so something to watch out for. It takes a fair bit of practice, screentime and experience as well. I very rarely take the traditional Sam Seiden entry as so many zones get chopped to pieces.

DX is almost solely used for EU on an intraday basis, but on W1/D1/H4 USDX is a good barometer of overall USD strength.

I can concur that D1 + H4 zones are very powerful.
An H1 zone within those higher time frame zones is a great place to look for trades.

Some efforts on EU. Looks like a few are on board this train.

And GU.

And UJ and Oz, not traded this for a while but while brexit was around have been looking at other pairs.

Bit of a slam dunk setup on UJ

Oz looks like it could be a runner looking at D1.

Unfortunately one small entry on UCAD. D1 setup, someone else got this above.

Using my lower left screen solely for D1/H4 views, right screen is LTF is working nicely.

can I ask what made you open longs today on EU ? there wasnt retest of zone or anything special, thanks for explanation

Have a look at the bull engulfing PA at that entry point, stack H1/M30 next to H4.

SL went below the PA, bit of a momentum play with trend.

Entry was good as demand zone was forming. I can find these entries in autopilot these days. They stick out like a sore thumb.