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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #2,341
  • Mar 8, 2019 8:29am Mar 8, 2019 8:29am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} So what was the news good bad or indifferent for the dollar
It was mixed... unemployment rate was 3,8% against a forecasted 3,9%, but only 20K new jobs against a forecasted 180K.
So pretty much a non-event. The Brexit vote on Tuesday is likely to be more influential though.

However, on the subject of fundamental news, the more I trade this method, I get what you are saying that news is not that important. The way it seems to work is that either news will speed up how fast we reach our targets, or it will postpone the target, like we need to take a detour before reaching the target.
  • #2,342
  • Mar 8, 2019 2:48pm Mar 8, 2019 2:48pm
Quoting Nala66
The trades, the signals, the procedures, the targeting, the hedging and so on are all the same. One just has to pay strict attention to what is happening and respond accordingly with your plan of action until the goal is reached. Then quit for the day because this is full metal jacket work and you will start to burn out, lose concentration and lose money. Let me here a Amen
Amen
  • #2,343
  • Mar 8, 2019 6:15pm Mar 8, 2019 6:15pm
Quoting fxmars
{quote} It was mixed... unemployment rate was 3,8% against a forecasted 3,9%, but only 20K new jobs against a forecasted 180K. So pretty much a non-event. The Brexit vote on Tuesday is likely to be more influential though. However, on the subject of fundamental news, the more I trade this method, I get what you are saying that news is not that important. The way it seems to work is that either news will speed up how fast we reach our targets, or it will postpone the target, like we need to take a detour before reaching the target....
This is exactly what I have uttered in the past.

You may also note that if we have a target price will run to it prior to the major news event, seems like the target has to be taken out in readiness for such news. I say be aware of the major news events in connection with the price targets.

So if by Tuesday we have a target then look to see it hit before the Brexit news. This happens so often and is one of the reasons I ignore the news entirely simply because the target either gets hit or it doesn't and I get stopped out.
  • #2,344
  • Mar 8, 2019 6:30pm Mar 8, 2019 6:30pm
Quoting Jazz1964
Do you trade NFP based on this system Alan? I had this M15 measured move {image} Have a good weekend!
Jazz I don't even look at the news and that includes comments made on TV about currency.

All the story is in the charts. I interpret what the charts are telling me. I am not an economist so I cannot interpret the effects news data has on currency. There are far too many factors to consider and whole teams of people work on this, so what chance have I.

Look at the ZOO points on the 1 hour chart and you will see they all pay you big time.
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  • #2,345
  • Mar 9, 2019 1:11am Mar 9, 2019 1:11am
Quoting Nala66
{quote}......Look at the ZOO points on the 1 hour chart and you will see they all pay you big time. {image}
All we have to do is crouch and pick up the money from the street. Just push the button!
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #2,346
  • Mar 9, 2019 2:09am Mar 9, 2019 2:09am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} All we have to do is crouch and pick up the money from the street. Just push the button!
Hi Jazz. I am not one for psychological stuff, I don't understand it and have no intention of ever trying to.

The whole concept of developing a trading plan is to eliminate any concept of psychology. In other words the plan rules the roost and it must be formatted by the individual trader, tweaked, adapted and adopted very early on in a traders career. No matter what the individual has on their mind it is not going to influence the market one little bit.

When we plan we resolve to cover the contingences we come across in our daily trading practice. The plan would say something like 'I am prepared to risk X in order to gain Y. This would come under the heading of Money Management. Then the plan may outline a particular trade you like to specialise in and this would come under the heading of Method. Then you have timing, duration, objectives, daily target and so on all contributing to your individual plans.

Far too many people just want to sit there and push buttons to make things happen without any concept of a plan at all. Who cares about planning as long as at the end of the month the account is in the black. People have said to me the market is going to do what it will and we can either get chewed up or make a profit it is as simple as that. "No, it is not!' That is what we call gambling and there is a difference.

We can see the price structure and plot for X to win us Y, we can alter the stake as the trade progresses, we can protect ourselves by moving the stop to lock in any profits, we can hedge as insurance, we can win far more than we started out aiming for. We have heaps more in our favor than a gambler has.

For me psychology has no place at all in trading though those that write books and sell them would certainly insist there is.
  • #2,347
  • Mar 9, 2019 3:04am Mar 9, 2019 3:04am
That shows you are able to think in probabilities and trust in that. That's for sure a blessing if you can do that by nature...!
Yes, it's about the plan and execution based on that. And not about pushing buttons randomly. I sure got that and working on it.

(Did I ever tell you I am super glad to trade your setup and learn a lot? )
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #2,348
  • Mar 11, 2019 12:46am Mar 11, 2019 12:46am
H1 bull setup. TP max until reach H4 EMA.
  • #2,349
  • Mar 11, 2019 4:28am Mar 11, 2019 4:28am
I took the short (little late for few pips, since I was looking other instrument that time), after the market retested the late Friday's retracement. Divergence in the 5min, plus possible (that time was only possible rejection of the ema in the 1h chart. The target was the swing in the 5min ema. The 2nd trade was taken after the breakout and rejection? of the 5min ema, with target 10 pips.
PS I know that Alan doesn't care about the news, but I believe that Brexit news would be rather important for cable pairs.
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  • #2,350
  • Mar 11, 2019 4:31am Mar 11, 2019 4:31am
I get 40 pips from bull sign. I close it on EMA H1.
  • #2,351
  • Mar 11, 2019 4:47am Mar 11, 2019 4:47am
Quoting Gilaforex13
H1 bull setup. TP max until reach H4 EMA.
Nice try but incorrect reading of the chart.

Both the 4 hour and the 1 hour are trading below the EMA so it is no possible to have a bull setup. At best we can expect a scalp or a hedge to a short trade.

It is only when the bulls cross the EMA and find support that we can start looking for bull setups.

It is a common mistake to deem a pullback as a change in direction whereas these should be looked at as opportunities to continue the trend.
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  • #2,352
  • Mar 11, 2019 4:56am Mar 11, 2019 4:56am
Thanks Alan for correction. I just try to scalping a little until reach EMA.
  • #2,353
  • Mar 11, 2019 6:11am Mar 11, 2019 6:11am
Quoting Gilaforex13
Thanks Alan for correction. I just try to scalping a little until reach EMA.
Good I did too.

This thing keeps trying for the 1 hour EMA but just can't get across.

It has bounced off the short continuation div 50%
  • #2,354
  • Mar 11, 2019 9:25am Mar 11, 2019 9:25am
Quoting Gilaforex13
H1 bull setup. TP max until reach H4 EMA.
TP hit
  • #2,355
  • Mar 11, 2019 5:55pm Mar 11, 2019 5:55pm
Well yesterday we had a nice example of a scalp turning into a trade, and what a trade that was.

I am having a little trouble reading what is going on here. I see we hit the 1st target of the continuation div on the 4 hour and this set up a second one which it also hit.

Now I am not sure if the bulls are not setting up for a third one, it depends where the current 4 hr bar closes.
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  • #2,356
  • Mar 11, 2019 6:17pm Mar 11, 2019 6:17pm
Gee I hope this Brexit stuff doesn't end too soon it is making us lots of money. Then again something else will crop up as it always does.

The pity of it is I have to sleep sometime so I missed at least a half of yesterdays move. Still I was all in so made a tidy profit on what I did trade.

The thing that amazes me is the accuracy of the moves, WHO is controlling this?

Just take a look at the 1 hour chart, it is amazing.
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  • #2,357
  • Mar 11, 2019 7:04pm Mar 11, 2019 7:04pm
Quoting Nala66
Well yesterday we had a nice example of a scalp turning into a trade, and what a trade that was. I am having a little trouble reading what is going on here. I see we hit the 1st target of the continuation div on the 4 hour and this set up a second one which it also hit. Now I am not sure if the bulls are not setting up for a third one, it depends where the current 4 hr bar closes. {image}
The daily is still between the 50% and D point of a bullish ABCD.
  • #2,358
  • Mar 12, 2019 1:13am Mar 12, 2019 1:13am
Quoting davidmaree
{quote} The daily is still between the 50% and D point of a bullish ABCD.
I can't see this one at all David... Can you show a chart.

I think I marked up the 4 hour chart wrong this morning, this is how I have it now...
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  • #2,359
  • Mar 12, 2019 1:33am Mar 12, 2019 1:33am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I can't see this one at all David... Can you show a chart. I think I marked up the 4 hour chart wrong this morning, this is how I have it now... {image}
It's this one I mentioned on Friday Alan (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post12091290)
  • #2,360
  • Mar 12, 2019 3:17am Mar 12, 2019 3:17am
that's my 40 pips done.

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