First entry was on Friday on the retest of the daily trendline and H4 SR level (blue dash). Two other positions taken earlier Monday for a second test of the same area. Had to move my stop as I considered it was safe enough as the weekend's gap above was not yet filled.
Currently +1100p.
Pure speculations:
On daily we can see the retest of the trendline as ending a possible wave 4, which would make today's move the start of a wave 5.
On the M30 chart I tried to establish some sort of very broad roadmap to follow-up on this possible move higher. Price never goes in a straight line so I try to be prepared.
I will consider hedging shorts against my longs if price action confirms a turn in the yellow area and a revisit to the green SR area below, in case the long scenario does not play out and price cuts through support to resume recent weakness.
Currently holding long positions on the Dow. First entry was on Friday on the retest of the daily trendline and H4 SR level (blue dash). Two other positions taken earlier Monday for a second test of the same area. Had to move my stop as I considered it was safe enough as the weekend's gap above was not yet filled. Currently +1100p. Pure speculations: On daily we can see the retest of the trendline as ending a possible wave 4, which would make today's move the start of a wave 5. On the M30 chart I tried to establish some sort of very broad roadmap...
Ignored
OK, Dow now just entered yellow area, which was my scalps target but server pauses between h15 and h30 >.<
Dow in the middle of retracement green zone on post #2. New long position entered. SL below green zone (around 30p below the 61.8 of Monday's move up. TP open.
Will add long with PA on the 61.8 if we get there and see convincing reaction / structure on smaller TF.
Price reacted in the yellow zone of post #2 and retraced yesterday to reach the expected green zone. Got caught with early buys and got a few stops taken.
Entered five long positions earlier today in the green zone. Just closed three of them for +602p in total to make my small account balance a safe round number.
Ongoing: three longs from the bottom and two adds at the bottom of what I believe to be the end of wave two and start of wave three that could push this thing yet higher. Not an expert in Elliott Waves but in theory it could tap 26300.
Currently 5 long positions with +1700p in total still running.
Still planning the trades and trading the plan. Structurally the Dow can go higher, significantly higher. Unless I am wrong of course, and no ego should be as big as to think one can only be right. But I have to have a plan and follow it, and stick to the rules.
Did some scalps during NY session and still holding 5 long positions for currently +1,979p. Will start considering closing all if we get below today's low. If today's daily candle closes above the open of yesterday's, I am a happy man and will continue buying.
Total of closed trades for the day:
Green: 1,090 points
Red : 377 points
Total Net in points: 712 points
Opened long positions as I write: 1,979 points
Still overtrading and on the edge of gambling sometimes but with the Dow I prefer buying on red candles and keeping relatively sound SL's rather than chasing price as SLs become painful.
“There are more things…likely to frighten us than there are to crush us; we suffer more often in imagination than in reality...Accordingly, some things torment us more than they ought; some torment us before they ought; and some torment us when they ought not to torment us at all..”
Dow is entering stacked supply on H4. It can be tricky here. However, I will stick with daily PA and structure and treat this consolidation phase from Thursday as enough accumulation to go through these supply areas and tap 26000.
Dow is entering stacked supply on H4. It can be tricky here. However, I will stick with daily PA and structure and treat this consolidation phase from Thursday as enough accumulation to go through these supply areas and tap 26000.
Ignored
As suggested, the triangle was a consolidation that developped to the upside during the asian session. A low volume bear bar in an uptrend indicates bulls have the upper hand. Knowing that retail traders are in majority short dow, it makes sense to draw them in with sudden down moves and makes them happy, until inevitably price goes back up to follow the trend. The stacked supply has been a challenge though and sellers pushed price down from there to today's low, as often. Having a solid plan helps keep calm.
It was a bit tricky and I got burned a few times by entering too early, which is not good but a result of feeling quite comfortable having solid positions running in the background from way below. Got also bitten by the EURUSD which I sold with profit before trying again with less success. I was betting on a weaker euro to strengthen the Dax that I find a bit slow while I consider it should reach 11900 or a bit higher.
This is important because then and only then will I start getting excited about selling indices.
Fear of missing out, this I got to correct. I've learned a lot more a lot on market structure this week and will continue to do so as it is a tremendous help to pick entries and exits, and even knowing when it is safe to get in a bit heavier than usual and keep SL's reasonable.
That being said, I will feel some relief when this Dow rallye ends as I don't have much time to trade anything else and focusing only on one or two instruments not only make me miss other opportunities but can make one a bit obsessive, which burdens the mind.
Anyhow, a few charts below for today.
Total of closed trades for the day:
Green: 1,984 pips / points (eurusd and audusd traded)
Red : 377 pips / points
Total Net in points: 1118 pips / points
Running / Floating long positions as I write: 2,442 points
State of the account since I started a small one on March 7. + 631% in 8 days excluding running positions. The goal is to bring it to 5-6K and start afresh with a public trade explorer on FF.
"A person who thinks all the time has nothing to think about except thoughts, so he loses touch with reality and lives in a world of illusions".
— Alan Watts
If you are not careful, station K-Fucked will play in your head twenty-four hours a day, nonstop, in stereo. Out of the right speaker in your inner ear will come the endless stream of self-aggrandizement, the recitation of one's specialness, of how much more open and gifted and brilliant and knowing and misunderstood and humble one is. Out of the left speaker will be the rap songs of self-loathing, the lists of all the things one doesn't do well, of all the mistakes one has made today and over an entire lifetime, the doubt, the assertion that everything that one touches turns to shit, that one doesn't do relationships well, that one is in every way a fraud, incapable of selfless love, that one had no talent or insight, and on and on and on."
