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Plan the Trade

  • #11,081
  • Mar 11, 2019 9:44am Mar 11, 2019 9:44am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Nice, erasmus!
thanks dd .. the mark douglas videos really helped me out .. appreciate you posting links
Become the casino
  • #11,082
  • Mar 11, 2019 9:48am Mar 11, 2019 9:48am
Quoting erasmus66
{quote} thanks dd .. the mark douglas videos really helped me out .. appreciate you posting links
I keep them book marked on my phone and I listen to them in my car - frequently! I knew that being away from trading for a while I would not be as disciplined as in the past. I also know from the past I have a tendency to constantly tweak things and abandon methodologies, etc. I will keep listening to those videos until I really do feel as though I am truly "trading in the zone."

I also suggest that you download them to your computer - you never know when those videos might disappear from youtube!

If they helped you out already, I can assure you that repeated close listening to them will increase their benefit to you.
  • #11,083
  • Mar 11, 2019 9:52am Mar 11, 2019 9:52am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} I keep them book marked on my phone and I listen to them in my car - frequently! I knew that being away from trading for a while I would not be as disciplined as in the past. I also know from the past I have a tendency to constantly tweak things and abandon methodologies, etc. I will keep listening to those videos until I really do feel as though I am truly "trading in the zone." I also suggest that you download them to your computer - you never know when those videos might disappear from youtube! If they helped you out already, I can assure...
good suggestion...how can we download videos from utube?
Staying in my lane...
  • #11,084
  • Mar 11, 2019 10:00am Mar 11, 2019 10:00am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} good suggestion...how can we download videos from utube?
I use mozilla firefox and search for a youtube downloader extension. There are usually a few free choices out there. Then you install the downloader extension to fire fox and you can download the videos to you computer.
  • #11,085
  • Mar 11, 2019 10:13am Mar 11, 2019 10:13am
Damn, when this thing just goes 1 direction i feel like a super star
  • #11,086
  • Mar 11, 2019 10:18am Mar 11, 2019 10:18am
Lots of value here in the last few days!

Ended today with +45 / 2 trades both on a 400T chart. First was same setup as Erasmus, second was a similar setup just after 11:00.
  • #11,087
  • Mar 11, 2019 10:35am Mar 11, 2019 10:35am
Quoting LookinGood
Damn, when this thing just goes 1 direction i feel like a super star
The one way trend days are the easiest so long as you are cured of the retail amateur's illness known as reversalphilia - amateurs love reversals because they think they are "low risk, high reward" trades. The problem as we now know is that 80% of reversal attempts fail. Therefore, what looks low risk because a small stop loss is really a very high risk trade. If every day was like this, either trend day up or trend day down, we'd all be rick in about a month. Where'd all that money come from? From all the traders who have been shorting and covering this thing the whole way up.

Price moves in waves like the ocean. If you've ever been in the ocean, you know how much easier it is for you to swim and body surf in the direction of the waves and how much effort it takes to wade out into the water far enough to catch the waves. Be a wave rider, not a current fighter.
  • #11,088
  • Mar 11, 2019 10:37am Mar 11, 2019 10:37am
Quoting Satori16
Lots of value here in the last few days! Ended today with +45 / 2 trades both on a 400T chart. First was same setup as Erasmus, second was a similar setup just after 11:00.
Great Satori!

Everyone will likely find a chart interval that works best for him- or herself. For some it will be a 20 or 30 second chart, while others might rather swing trade on the daily chart, and everything in between. Find you set ups and your interval, get into you lane, and groove it!
  • #11,089
  • Mar 11, 2019 10:42am Mar 11, 2019 10:42am
what the hell.. this thing still going up

imagine the poor bastards shorting this..all the blown accounts...
  • #11,090
  • Mar 11, 2019 10:47am Mar 11, 2019 10:47am
This this will be fun to watch. Brooks is a great lesson on price action. His first book was so poorly written that it turned a lot of people off. He’s an eye surgeon by profession, not an author. His newer editions are much easier to read.

I use more of a supply/demand style to trade now, but pullbacks in a trend are still at the core.

what are your targets and what are your stops? Are they going to be fixed numbers or based on structure/price action?



Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} Absolutely it works! The pullback scalps I do came directly from an insight Al Brooks shares in his books and his trading course. Now, the question is can the individual trader make it work for him- or herself? Well, that is where emotional discipline comes in, and for that, the best teacher is Mark Douglas and his trade tracking exercise. When I was posting with Divergence a few years ago in another thread I took it upon myself to try t trade the ES in a small account to see what would happen. Soon thereafter I stopped trading completely...
  • #11,091
  • Mar 11, 2019 10:49am Mar 11, 2019 10:49am
Quoting hilmy83
what the hell.. this thing still going up imagine the poor bastards shorting this..all the blown accounts...
I lurk at another trading forum where all the ES traders but two have been shorting this thing all day. Two traders are long, everyone else is short lol. Some are een adding to their shorts as the market moves against them.

Arm yourselves with market knowledge:

1) When the market gaps open and the gap does not fill with 15 minutes, it is far more likely that the gap will NOT fill that day and instead the market will trend all day in the direction of the gap.

2) 80% of reversals fail - if 80% of reversals fail, develop a trading plan that keeps you in the direction of the prevailing trend.

3) Learn to identify trading range behavior: When bars start to overlap and (on candlesticks) you start to see bull tails and bear tails on over lapping bars, you are in a trading range. Stop trading and await a breakout/pullback and a new trend.
  • #11,092
  • Mar 11, 2019 10:51am Mar 11, 2019 10:51am
Quoting hilmy83
what the hell.. this thing still going up imagine the poor bastards shorting this..all the blown accounts...
I made a couple scalps on YM this morning before I left, but price dipped down into a demand zone on the 15min chart first thing today, and showed signs of absorption and buying, so I was looking for longs. I should have left one contract run, but I closed out before I left the house.

Last week we had bumped up into a supply zone on the daily and weekly, so I was looking for shorts. I don’t just follow those lager time frames, I’ll still trade both directions since I’m a scalper. But if I’m looking for a bigger trade, or if it’ a scalp in the direction of the big trend. or to try and trail a stop and let one run, those big time frames can point the odds in your favor for catching a runner.
  • #11,093
  • Mar 11, 2019 10:59am Mar 11, 2019 10:59am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} The one way trend days are the easiest so long as you are cured of the retail amateur's illness known as reversalphilia - amateurs love reversals because they think they are "low risk, high reward" trades. The problem as we now know is that 80% of reversal attempts fail. Therefore, what looks low risk because a small stop loss is really a very high risk trade. If every day was like this, either trend day up or trend day down, we'd all be rick in about a month. Where'd all that money come from? From all the traders who have been shorting...
Hahah reversalphilia.

I laugh because i was once afflicted lol.
  • #11,094
  • Mar 11, 2019 11:02am Mar 11, 2019 11:02am
Quoting jack411
This this will be fun to watch. Brooks is a great lesson on price action. His first book was so poorly written that it turned a lot of people off. He’s an eye surgeon by profession, not an author. His newer editions are much easier to read. I use more of a supply/demand style to trade now, but pullbacks in a trend are still at the core. what are your targets and what are your stops? Are they going to be fixed numbers or based on structure/price action? {quote}
Supply/demand strategies are great, especially for intraday swing trading where you are trying to capture the meat of a move. I use such strategies myself. There is a guy out there on other forums goes by the handle dbphoenix. He has a lot of good supply/demand materials out there if you look for them. I don't think he has ever come to us here at FF, but I think he is trade2win.

Right now I am using a 6.25 point target and a 6.25 point initial stop. The stop gets moved to the actual risk stop once a candle closes in the direction of the trade. This is pure scalping. I'm not worried about leaving money on the table.
  • #11,095
  • Mar 11, 2019 11:03am Mar 11, 2019 11:03am
Quoting LookinGood
{quote} Hahah reversalphilia. I laugh because i was once afflicted lol.
You, me, and just about every amateur who heads into the market seeking his or her fortune.
  • #11,096
  • Mar 11, 2019 11:05am Mar 11, 2019 11:05am
Here's a good video from AL Brooks ... I cued it up to start after all the "blah, blah, blah" in the beginning by the host.

Inserted Video
  • #11,097
  • Mar 11, 2019 11:22am Mar 11, 2019 11:22am
and why can't one scalp a swing?
  • #11,098
  • Mar 11, 2019 11:38am Mar 11, 2019 11:38am
Quoting ddaytrader
{quote} I lurk at another trading forum where all the ES traders but two have been shorting this thing all day. Two traders are long, everyone else is short lol. Some are een adding to their shorts as the market moves against them. Arm yourselves with market knowledge: 1) When the market gaps open and the gap does not fill with 15 minutes, it is far more likely that the gap will NOT fill that day and instead the market will trend all day in the direction of the gap. 2) 80% of reversals fail - if 80% of reversals fail, develop a trading plan that...
Seasoned trader you are just from reading the way you write so thanks for your participation. Transition from trending to range and visa versa is crucial to understand with strict/concrete/quantifiable rules to trade the strategy that jives well with the overall market behavior. All good but very hard imo to do this with just one instrument using just price vs time series. This was far easier (complex but relatively easier) in spot FX across 28 pairs giving us greater control over trade/position mgmt techniques to deploy. I am doing this part more in a systemic way in NQ and majority of my time has gone in this aspect. I have not watched or analyzed NQ outside of 9:30-4pm ET session so when you say gap, do you mean from 5pm ET open to nyse open?

I hope to share soon some of my techniques I am developing to tackle Trending and ranging markets and perspective. Currently, I am manually toggling across based on my own interpretation but anyone who knows me well... I don't like unknowns that have the potential to affect consistency so kind of stuck in this puzzle solving mode for a week now to make it all work by set of market transitory rules... the "what I do manually" rules into concrete systemic rules. It's just hard. So far, I think one has to pick what style you want to trade and go with the flow and not worry about FOMO. I have attained positive expectancy with rangebound between 11am-3pm ET with only some 35 trades in all of 2019... so not suitable for daily income.

Also, in your experience or your trader circles, do you have traders who trade only LONG NQ or ES? Long offers far better results in my testing than Short or taking both sides. this is probably tied to fundamentals imo.
Staying in my lane...
  • #11,099
  • Mar 11, 2019 11:39am Mar 11, 2019 11:39am
123 breaks at top or bottom of the trend are by nature reversals then there are the 123s that get you back into the trend that 80% number is based on different variables but whatever they work for me and that's all that matters
  • #11,100
  • Mar 11, 2019 11:41am Mar 11, 2019 11:41am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Seasoned trader you are just from reading the way you write so thanks for your participation. Transition from trending to range and visa versa is crucial to understand with strict/concrete/quantifiable rules to trade the strategy that jives well with the overall market behavior. All good but very hard imo to do this with just one instrument using just price vs time series. This was far easier (complex but relatively easier) in spot FX across 28 pairs giving us greater control over trade/position mgmt techniques to deploy. I am doing this...
forgot to add... kindly give an example of overlapping bars to clarify what you mean.
Staying in my lane...
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