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Plan the Trade

  • #10,981
  • Mar 6, 2019 11:11am Mar 6, 2019 11:11am
Quoting capstone
{quote} Thank you for sharing the chart. What is the speed of the candles?
512 Tick today
  • #10,982
  • Mar 6, 2019 2:44pm Mar 6, 2019 2:44pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} With that said, I can trade manually as fast as any algo. My record with FXCM was scalping over 600 trades in under 2 hours across all jpy pairs.
while that is impressive, HFT algo i have seen can do over 1000 trades in a minute. Just for info at NFP time, the # of trades between 8:30 to 8:31 in one currency is usually over 10000
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #10,983
  • Mar 7, 2019 8:52am Mar 7, 2019 8:52am
Made it more difficult than I had to in that I took a full loss on my second short because I plain old failed to adjust the automatic stop to the actual price level.

But, made my $250 per contract and its not even 10 AM, so I can't complain.

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  • #10,984
  • Mar 7, 2019 8:52am Mar 7, 2019 8:52am
Quite a sell off . . .
  • #10,985
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:05am Mar 7, 2019 9:05am
added another 6.25 points/25 ticks on this trading range break down to test the previous low of the day. +18.75 points/75 ticks on the day

EDIT: Still rolling with 512 ticks for today as my "x-ray" chart. Also watch 5 minute for intraday, and 4 hour and daily to make sure I don't miss a "surprise."

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  • #10,986
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:23am Mar 7, 2019 9:23am
Quoting ddaytrader
Made it more difficult than I had to in that I took a full loss on my second short because I plain old failed to adjust the automatic stop to the actual price level. But, made my $250 per contract and its not even 10 AM, so I can't complain. {image}
nice
  • #10,987
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:34am Mar 7, 2019 9:34am
shame a couple of +1s on nq and my +12 on the ym via the 123
  • #10,988
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:37am Mar 7, 2019 9:37am
Most tricky today. +31

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'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #10,989
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:42am Mar 7, 2019 9:42am
+92 on the ym today just following the pullbacks.

only if everyday was this like this
  • #10,990
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:48am Mar 7, 2019 9:48am
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  • #10,991
  • Mar 7, 2019 9:58am Mar 7, 2019 9:58am
Been a while since i posted a chart. Forgot how much work marking this thing up was.

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  • #10,992
  • Mar 7, 2019 10:03am Mar 7, 2019 10:03am
Quoting LookinGood
only if everyday was this like this
Two more for a +9 and a +6.25 for a total of +34 points or 136 ticks ... indeed ... if only everyday were like this lol

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  • #10,993
  • Mar 7, 2019 10:05am Mar 7, 2019 10:05am
Quoting LookinGood
Been a while since i posted a chart. Forgot how much work marking this thing up was.
Hey @lookingood ... your trading is ... lookin' GOOD!
  • #10,994
  • Mar 7, 2019 10:56am Mar 7, 2019 10:56am
Risking 25 ticks for a 171 tick target shorted the 50% retrace and profit target at the 7025 low. This is a "set it and forget it trade" so I'm heading out for a bit. It will either be a loss of $125 or an $855 profit - just trading a one lot on this. If it is somewhere in between toward the close, I will close it and not hold it over night. Showing a 5 minute chart - not that that matters at all to the set up - it is a 50% retrace no matter at which interval you set the data, and the low of the day is currently 7025 no matter that bar interval.

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  • #10,995
  • Mar 7, 2019 12:01pm Mar 7, 2019 12:01pm
Quoting ddaytrader
Risking 25 ticks for a 171 tick target shorted the 50% retrace and profit target at the 7025 low. This is a "set it and forget it trade" so I'm heading out for a bit. It will either be a loss of $125 or an $855 profit - just trading a one lot on this. If it is somewhere in between toward the close, I will close it and not hold it over night. Showing a 5 minute chart - not that that matters at all to the set up - it is a 50% retrace no matter at which interval you set the data, and the low of the day is currently 7025 no matter that bar interval....
I usually tend to stay away from the "middle"... curious what is your success rate with these 50% retraces?

EDIT: and more importantly, where you do put your stoploss?
Staying in my lane...
  • #10,996
  • Edited 12:29pm Mar 7, 2019 12:18pm | Edited 12:29pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I usually tend to stay away from the "middle"... curious what is your success rate with these 50% retraces? EDIT: and more importantly, where you do put your stoploss?
stop is on his chart, it's hit already

but i'm curious to know why he decided to take this trade. He was up 136 ticks prior to this. That represents 34% of the day's range. for a daytrader that is already beyond good (my goal is just to get max 20% of the session range)

one thing i learned from this thread, is once you meet your target profit. you get the hell out. It fits into your OC theory right? that strategies loses it's expectancy towards the end of that opportunity cycle?
  • #10,997
  • Mar 7, 2019 12:23pm Mar 7, 2019 12:23pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} stop is on his chart, it's hit already but i'm curious to know why he decided to take this trade. He was up 136 ticks prior to this. That represents 34% of the day's range. for a daytrader that is already beyond good (my goal is just to get max 20% of the session range) one thing i learned from this thread, is once you meet your target profit. you get the hell out. It fits into your OC theory right? that strategies loses it's expectancy towards the end of that opportunity cycle?
only can learn by experience it.
on a postive roll...
  • #10,998
  • Mar 7, 2019 12:57pm Mar 7, 2019 12:57pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} stop is on his chart, it's hit already but i'm curious to know why he decided to take this trade. He was up 136 ticks prior to this. That represents 34% of the day's range. for a daytrader that is already beyond good (my goal is just to get max 20% of the session range) one thing i learned from this thread, is once you meet your target profit. you get the hell out. It fits into your OC theory right? that strategies loses it's expectancy towards the end of that...
Thanks. I saw that... I was just wondering about the overall stat with such "enter at 50% of range" type entries.

Absolutely... you are right about taking % of range and GTFO as where you are within the OC cycle matters. If you enter when 80% of the move is already over, then you are relying on a strategy to exploit ziggyzag movement which are mostly algo driven designed to screw everyone on their way. And frankly, part of my algo breakdown of multiple strategies triggering at multiple points within the OC is just intended to prove and validate this theory as well in a round-about asinine way of doing things (to some).

The best tip I received is.... look at your entry and exit expectancy of each and every trade by session to truly understand how much you is your floating risk (not drawdown but floating equity drop) and compare that with your floating equity peak.... average it up and then shoot that as your daily or session goal to GTFO.... it increases the winrate tremendously allowing you to size up (but I am STILL not convinced sizing up is the way to increase your $/hour rate reading your recent post). I like to shrink the OC itself to improve my time vs effort.... as it is universal and market neutral in nature. (Example: Why get in a janitorial business when human labor cannot be literally optimized. there is only so much one janitor can do to increase productivity. It's scalable business but with also increased operating costs and shrinking margins and increased risk/expenses).

With that said, I am STILL not settled on which way I will go with my algo. I has been a painful but necessary journey I must admit resulting in the approach I ended up with FX.... i.e. trading small/brief events to maintain work/life balance. my OC will most likely be bouts of under 30 mins each which I can start and stop at any given time within any session. That would most likely maintain the best $/hour equation. You are right about straddle. First 30 mins gives plenty opportunities to take a quick hit on one or two and close the shop.... journey continues :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #10,999
  • Mar 7, 2019 1:05pm Mar 7, 2019 1:05pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks. I saw that... I was just wondering about the overall stat with such "enter at 50% of range" type entries. Absolutely... you are right about taking % of range and GTFO as where you are within the OC cycle matters. If you enter when 80% of the move is already over, then you are relying on a strategy to exploit ziggyzag movement which are mostly algo driven designed to screw everyone on their way. And frankly, part of my algo breakdown of multiple strategies triggering at multiple points within the OC is just intended to prove and validate...
And while we are talking about ranges, I got rid of two more strategies.... via process of elimination as my guiding principle.
I now have 4 for trend following at the beginning of OC (my primary focus area), 3 for rangebound and 1 for pullbacks (in-between type) and, as expected, they all have varying degrees of scale depending on what type of "opportunity" you want to extract from the market. I must admit, In theory, this approach should be market neutral (which I confirmed in FX) but I am unable to convince myself yet for NQ. Something is unique here that I don't know yet... and frankly, I don't need to know. Just knowing what does not work is good enough.... but again.... no guarantees of positive outcome whatsoever or every algo would generate millions lol

EDIT: I added VWAP3 couple of days ago... have yet to test it out. It will simply go long or short on std3 lol

DFM = Divergence from Mean
RTM = Reversion to Mean
Mean = either midpoint/50% of OC as it develops or VWAP or Session open or POC or whatever you choose it to be
Attached Image
Staying in my lane...
  • #11,000
  • Mar 7, 2019 1:10pm Mar 7, 2019 1:10pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} And while we are talking about ranges, I got rid of two more strategies.... via process of elimination as my guiding principle. I now have 4 for trend following at the beginning of OC (my primary focus area), 3 for rangebound and 1 for pullbacks (in-between type) and, as expected, they all have varying degrees of scale depending on what type of "opportunity" you want to extract from the market. I must admit, In theory, this approach should be market neutral (which I confirmed in FX) but I am unable to convince myself yet for NQ. Something...
and since I am in the mood the share... here's my plug/play TM studies for TP and SL. I got some time based exits too but let's not get into that.

And just to say it... goal is to go live with ONLY one. rest are all considered tools to assist me in running at the end of each session to quantify "what just happened" type scenarios
Attached Image
Staying in my lane...
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