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The Swamp

  • #31,361
  • Mar 6, 2019 10:12am Mar 6, 2019 10:12am
Bear Trap

Now to 14..

What a choppy
  • #31,362
  • Mar 6, 2019 10:27am Mar 6, 2019 10:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} u got by the skin on your teeth. ok nap time.. it may not last too long.. 1293 is close.. It boost the 1284 before 1433 odds some. Had I played it, I would have longed 1284+spread.
Getting into some big R shortly, The 1326 area is larger than the 1314 ones. Pa appears not to be able to challenge 1268 today. LC will be higher than 1299.

The 1284 pattern to 1433 pattern seems to be working atm. This is the pattern I play often. I found sometimes they fail. My journey is to figure out why. In this case It may be the downside orbit has shifted below 1510. Still above 1433.

the R day wise 1326 39 57..
week wise rolled bearish with support right at 1267ish.. Right where large bears need that close below on the day.

the atm move may be that residual move 1284 to 1433.. but momentum wise those large day and week shifts may prevent it. If so, the close below 1267 is sought.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,363
  • Mar 6, 2019 10:31am Mar 6, 2019 10:31am
Now, sell again

Choppy
  • #31,364
  • Mar 6, 2019 10:34am Mar 6, 2019 10:34am
Quoting Fxminer
Bear Trap Now to 14.. What a choppy
Its may definitely may be a trap. We still dont know whats for dinner. A 3 week old pattern to 1433, or one that took a year to make? .
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,365
  • Mar 6, 2019 10:42am Mar 6, 2019 10:42am
Or maybe the next couple days, will be The Conclusion of this trend
  • #31,366
  • Mar 6, 2019 10:43am Mar 6, 2019 10:43am
U dont count your chickens till they are shitting on your porch. close NY below 1326 helps bears. close NY above 1327 helps bulls. LC closed below 1326. that leans bearish some, it conflicts with yest close. some bounce toward and mayb higher than 1327 possible within next 24h.. R above at 1338 and 57.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,367
  • Mar 6, 2019 10:54am Mar 6, 2019 10:54am
The Confusing is : Are The Market Maker didn't know this ? Or this is The Exact Rule that must do
  • #31,368
  • Mar 6, 2019 11:03am Mar 6, 2019 11:03am
Quoting Fxminer
Or maybe the next couple days, will be The Conclusion of this trend
They all come to an end. close NY above 1327 today, and longs have a shot. Tomorrow is a new day to reset it all. LC below 1326 already.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,369
  • Mar 6, 2019 11:42am Mar 6, 2019 11:42am
here we are with the 50% retrace 1306.. where now?.. LC closed below 1326.. LC also closed below 1366.. looks bearish to to.. although LC above yesterday may allow another bounce to 1326 within 24 h. still bearish to me until NY closes above 1327
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,370
  • Mar 6, 2019 11:53am Mar 6, 2019 11:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} sounds good. last 4h did close below 1304.3..next one is green atm, that may change to red. I will nap b4 Lclose. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post12082280 {image}
next 1 in 9 min.. bears didnt leave yet. 1304.3
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,371
  • Edited 12:18pm Mar 6, 2019 12:06pm | Edited 12:18pm
Bull side
1284 check
4 h close above 1304.3 check
higher LC over previous check
need NY close 1327
1433 pattern
1429 norm

Bear side
LC closed below 1326
Trend down
pa is below 1326
LC and NY close below 1366 ATM
Week closed lower
Month closed lower.



looks like 1326/27 to be tested, and 1284
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,372
  • Mar 6, 2019 12:42pm Mar 6, 2019 12:42pm
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  • #31,373
  • Mar 6, 2019 1:28pm Mar 6, 2019 1:28pm
1302 is a big number....upon hold this week could see a big push next week towards 1500...or so.
  • #31,374
  • Mar 6, 2019 2:26pm Mar 6, 2019 2:26pm
swap coming. closing longs may push it below 1304 shortly
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,375
  • Mar 6, 2019 3:27pm Mar 6, 2019 3:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1284 reached now.. big money is in this fight.. {image}
I checked with 3 different brokers and 1284 is not hit (the low is around 1285.5 - 1286 at the 3 places).
I opened a long however...
  • #31,376
  • Mar 6, 2019 4:12pm Mar 6, 2019 4:12pm
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} I checked with 3 different brokers and 1284 is not hit (the low is around 1285.5 - 1286 at the 3 places). I opened a long however...
1284.5 on Oanda. Make sure your checking live accounts. We often have a pip or 2 discrepancy.

NY closed below 1326. Pa has a decent chance of returning back to 1283.x, a little below 1284.5. 1268 is still in play. 1326+ a little may cap it now. 1325/31/54 is some R..
1h close below 1304 may be bearish.
1311 is soft resistance
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,377
  • Mar 6, 2019 4:36pm Mar 6, 2019 4:36pm
if pa manages to make it near 1283 again 12 h # at 1275.9, day #1268.8.. pa may get hung up above 1268 and below 1274 or 1275.9. a supportive area with lots of air below if LC is below.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,378
  • Mar 6, 2019 8:30pm Mar 6, 2019 8:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
Bull side 1284 check 4 h close above 1304.3 check higher LC over previous check need NY close 1327 1433 pattern 1429 norm Bear side LC closed below 1326 Trend down pa is below 1326 LC and NY close below 1366 ATM Week closed lower Month closed lower. looks like 1326/27 to be tested, and 1284 {image}
that may have been the higher LC close bounce. I thought it would test closer to 1326, maybe I was wrong.
closing an h below 1304 may bring 1283x
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,379
  • Mar 6, 2019 8:55pm Mar 6, 2019 8:55pm
tomorrow
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,380
  • Mar 6, 2019 10:05pm Mar 6, 2019 10:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} that may have been the higher LC close bounce. I thought it would test closer to 1326, maybe I was wrong. closing an h below 1304 may bring 1283x {image}
still a snooze fest.. I forget about NFP range if no pump.
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