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Journey to consistency

  • #1,961
  • Edited 2:05am Feb 26, 2019 1:53am | Edited 2:05am
Quote
So although there's been a LL on 5min its not going to be an easy straightforward sell especially if 440 holds. And I have to follow the peak and trough and 1h!

5min I have LH and LL
1h there's not even a LH! and I must follow the bigger TF but I can't completely disregard 5min can I ?

This is complex.

Let's get through this step by step as far as cause and effect is concerned on 1h my eye is on 505 "the cause" had happened now the effect might follow up keeping that in mind and also the absence of LH and LL there's a good chance this will go up.

However on 5min I see LH and LL upward channel has also broken on 1h so trouble is boiling despite the absence of LH and LL on 1h. Low peak is at 440 so if I get a higher trough above 440 I should go long ?

yeah that's it I think 1h is up for now however since there's been a LL on 5min I need to wait for HL on 5min before going long ?

that's the plan .

there's another cause at 471 if it rushes for 471 first on 5min I think selling it below isn't such a bad idea.

No it's a bad idea to sell.

LONG from 440 first target 471.
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  • #1,962
  • Feb 26, 2019 2:28am Feb 26, 2019 2:28am
Although on 1h the trend is still up this looks "very" problematic

I'm not convinced that this is bulls attempt looks more like a correction hence "I exited too early again"

444 that's not a proper trough it's a "correction move up" tradeable yes, but at this point I can't even trade the impulse waves better get better at that first!

I'm thinking if the big hands are aiming for a certain level they'll do whatever it takes :but I must make a move: based off of a solid reasoning.
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  • #1,963
  • Feb 26, 2019 2:56am Feb 26, 2019 2:56am
TF conflict ?!

got out of my short.

458.8 peak yes = possibility of a higher trough and trend line might also break
gotta be very careful I was following 5min. 1h is still bullish at this point.

In any case I should follow the bigger TF!

reverted to long "on" a proper signal on 5min.
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  • #1,964
  • Feb 26, 2019 3:19am Feb 26, 2019 3:19am
this is a tough battle!!!

bulls are getting knocked out ! rejection

I had a long exited -3pips overall

now to make matters even more complicated on 5min there's a HL! 458 and last low 428 last low
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  • #1,965
  • Feb 27, 2019 12:53am Feb 27, 2019 12:53am
1h view the trend is up.

BUT there's a prominent resistance.

However I'm not going to sell it until I see a LH and LL on 1h for now and probably for today my bias will remain so that is "bullish".

Possible areas of interest are 502 and 485 entry will be done from 5min I need further confirmation :fractals and S&R: if there's going to be any trade.

I'm going into Frankfurt open fairly organized and with a plan ("solid" plan), and that's a first I know what I'm looking for - don't need to take gamble trades.
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  • #1,966
  • Edited 1:49am Feb 27, 2019 1:38am | Edited 1:49am
Long in I think I did see my fractal and opposite fractal I have my peak on 5min.
Target 538 potential area for LH.

I did see the evidence (and I have been wrong oh so many times)

OK the fractal was off exited waiting I see an opposite fractal forming !
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  • #1,967
  • Edited 12:56am Mar 5, 2019 12:29am | Edited 12:56am
with that the misery continues.

Possible reaction levels

545 (S)
601 (R)
616 (R)

Possible action levels

561
570
576

For some reason DAX is active on my Oanda demo and I have already seen it had bounced off of 545 and above 561, so I should expect some kind of a GAP at the Frankfurt open and will try to fill in the blanks. But my levels should be in general good to go.
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  • #1,968
  • Mar 5, 2019 2:41am Mar 5, 2019 2:41am
570 retest I did see that
580 broke and held and continued to rise
594 this was getting close to 610 , 616 R area

In general although I'm still losing I am able to understand what had happened.
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  • #1,969
  • Mar 5, 2019 2:46am Mar 5, 2019 2:46am
570 had a retest
580 is missing a retest
594 broke and held potential support doing down
601 another potential support
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  • #1,970
  • Edited 7:31pm Mar 5, 2019 6:53pm | Edited 7:31pm
I need to learn to see things in terms of cause and effect.
Sure a lot of levels are missing but these two levels jumped out at me.

And multi time frame how do I reconcile the two ? sometimes cause and effect happens on 5min but can't be seen clearly on 15min (I like 15min way better than 1h)

Instead of confusing myself with 5min levels I need to draw the main levels on 15min.

Every day I feel like I am progressing further and further but boy oh boy I can't help but wonder sometimes if this suffering will ever end ?


I think the long cause and effect on the bottom is off.
the level is off its wrong!
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  • #1,971
  • Mar 5, 2019 7:24pm Mar 5, 2019 7:24pm
5min view of yesterday's two major moves up and down with entry signals now I see where I should enter apart from actually anticipating a possible PB levels and the reaction visuals. I guess that's an improvement but like I said the misery continues. Its never easy.
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  • #1,972
  • Mar 5, 2019 7:52pm Mar 5, 2019 7:52pm
15min analysis done.

599 potential reaction area
628 potential action area
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  • #1,973
  • Mar 5, 2019 8:09pm Mar 5, 2019 8:09pm
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  • #1,974
  • Mar 6, 2019 1:07am Mar 6, 2019 1:07am
Redrawn the levels hopefully they are more accurate this time around.
I'll need to check 15min candles as London opens and the session progress.
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  • #1,975
  • Mar 6, 2019 2:15am Mar 6, 2019 2:15am
595 reaction in progress, OR action on 15min
I'm trying to feel LOL along with the technique as much as I can and not be so rigid.

But until it goes above 605 its a no.

600 also looks interesting on 5min but until 595 breaks its a no for me.

they're fighting at this level 595 bulls and bears.

I need to keep reminding myself that I only trade the reaction! and not the action on 595 down
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  • #1,976
  • Mar 6, 2019 2:37am Mar 6, 2019 2:37am
from what I understood and observed 595 bears have won at 596 but I have a feeling that this
was a retracement ?

that fall deep retrace ?

now I have 596 and 571 we'll see what happens
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  • #1,977
  • Mar 6, 2019 3:05am Mar 6, 2019 3:05am
wow.
what a day.
I mean a difficult day.

596 is waiting for a reaction - doesn't always mean its going to happen!! 15min reference
587 also bears want to push this lower as 580 breaks I won't touch anything ! maybe gap from 596 ? 15min reference
587 could also be another action in the works....
580 is a potential support 15min and above 584 I'm seeing some resistance to push beyond 587! again 15min reference
571 is a 5min reaction I don't like the look of the bounce off of from 5min so for now that's the least I need to pay attention to.

Trading in a nutshell it is...
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  • #1,978
  • Mar 6, 2019 4:00am Mar 6, 2019 4:00am
Quoting Piquant
wow. what a day. I mean a difficult day. 596 is waiting for a reaction - doesn't always mean its going to happen!! 15min reference 587 also bears want to push this lower as 580 breaks I won't touch anything ! maybe gap from 596 ? 15min reference 587 could also be another action in the works.... 580 is a potential support 15min and above 584 I'm seeing some resistance to push beyond 587! again 15min reference 571 is a 5min reaction I don't like the look of the bounce off of from 5min so for now that's the least I need to pay attention to. Trading...
40 pips range in 2 hours, morning hours....you can't do nothing in this scenario.
do you remember when it moved 40 pips in less than 5 min......
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,979
  • Edited 7:07pm Mar 6, 2019 6:44pm | Edited 7:07pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} 40 pips range in 2 hours, morning hours....you can't do nothing in this scenario. do you remember when it moved 40 pips in less than 5 min......
Yes as you often say in your journal after these narrow ranges usually follow a big explosion

At the start of the session Frankfurt open on 1h 624 broke resistance became support area "action" so a I anticipated a reaction at 624 I stayed around 1h prior US open got fed up and called it a day.

I think the right point for sell would have been below 592 as support breaks on 1h

BUT on 1min chart if you zoom in and also on 1h there's a long wick it did break above 624 previous support supposed to have become an R but if it breaks if my reaction level was right this was a change of direction ? previous support becomes R breaks becomes support ?

BUT that break above 624 didn't last very long and also the look of 1h candle below 624 long wick but it still managed to close below 624 I have a feeling this was going for some other reaction level that I can't see or that I am missing! DAX likes perfect moves so I'm the one who's got a problem "I can't see fully".

Plus there was some kind of pattern ascending triangle , flag was playing out on 1h I'm no expert on that field in fact I have zero knowledge because they change and mutate and I don't think I'll ever be able to trade them as they progress too damn difficult.

I might be taking on a challenge that I can't ever accomplish (its too damn complex system) to understand it fully. But in this job as you said we must try to improve and understand the flow the reasoning behind each wave. There's never a day where you can sit back and relax. This job keeps us on our toes.

Back to the topic of discussion and yesterday's move I saw some other opportunity after I called it a day, one that's based off of S&R not action and reaction.
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  • #1,980
  • Mar 6, 2019 7:13pm Mar 6, 2019 7:13pm
Main levels which were at play yesterday was 614R ( as S&R not action or reaction), 592S, 581S

You can see the role 592 played on 1min I don't see it fully but I see something

Overall it was a back and forth 90pips move 1h prior US open, and I only managed 13pips I need to see more!

I'm not sure which one is easier action reaction or support and resistance both are complex in their own merit but yesterday if I waited for that reaction as I actually I would have ended the day doing nothing and just waiting nothing wrong with that of course better than gambling but if I saw that S&R play on 1h I could have traded that pin pong up and down on 1m with minimal risk.

That really got me thinking...

somedays there's better opportunity on action + reaction somedays you just have to do the S&R and on some even move to 5min and look for action reaction opportunities there if there's nothing to take cue from 1h as it did on 1st of Mar.

it's never a sure thing, I guess that what I am struggling the most "to be flexible" and "to see the right opportunity at the right time and trade it".

your brain must work at full capacity to be able to see all of this and decide on the right course of action even if you start to see something.
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