WTI Crude Oil Trading

Resistance ~57.5 has not failed as yet.

US stocks are dragging down WTI.

I am expecting wave B:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post12024686

Uptrend line (blue) has been breached. Almost certain confirmation by next H4 bar. This strong move combined with drop in US stock market could mean an extended down move by WTI.

WTI crude oil went back to test its two and half month old support trend line. Further, the oil prices can test the first resistance at 56.78 and a breach above can lead it to reach the key resistance of 57.40.
SL- 55.38, it will act as strong support

OPEC UNLIKELY TO MAKE ANY OUTPUT POLICY DECISION AT APRIL MEETING - REUTERS
4 March 2019, 15:46

Citing three OPEC sources familiar with the matter, Reuters recently reported that OPEC was unlikely to make a new decision on output cuts at the April meeting. According to the article, OPEC is likely to decide to extend the oil supply curbs until the end of the year at the June meeting. "OPEC may discuss easing curbs if output drops further in exempt producer," the sources said.

The barrel of West Texas Intermediate extended its daily rebound on Reuters' report and was last seen trading at $56.50, where it was up 1.35% on a daily basis.

Price has reached newest downtrend line (red) at ~56.80 on H4. A crossing could be more likely than a retreat from the red line--could go either way.

On H4: Price retreated from downtrend line (red) at ~57.0, crossed below EMA20 at 56.55, now below uptrend line (blue). US stock market is down, affecting WTI. H4 & M30 charts show situation:

We might form an ABCD pattern on H1

more info in ABCD patterns:

https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex...he-three-drive

An interesting concept, implies a significant drop, > 100 pips.

The median line remains trapped inside the current H4 red-blue pennant, and unable so far to get back above EMA20. This suggests down is more likely than up.

Do you think ~55.00 would be a strong support level?

The median line on H4 has drifted through the uptrend line (blue), although that could be negated if strong buying pressure develops. Down appears more likely than up.

Looking @ H4 it's the first support ... but these days equity and news are the main drivers for WTI

API OIL DATA SHOWS LARGER THAT EXPECTED BUILD IN CRUDE OIL INVENTORY

A private survey of oil inventories was released, pressuring WTI to pierce the trend line support after API data showed a much larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories. Heating oil futures also fell in post-settlement trade after API data shows a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. distillate inventories.
Platts were expecting crude stock build of around 1.9 million barrels.
Reuters survey had an expected build around 400,000 barrels.
Crude +7.29M.
Cushing +1.1M
Gasoline -391K
Distillates: -3.1M

WTI remaining range bound since mid-Feb ~55.0 - ~57.5

We've finally got the up-to-date COT data. It looks it has some downside pressure now....

source: barchart.com

EIA: COMMERCIAL CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES INCREASED BY 7.1 MILLION BARRELS FROM PREVIOUS WEEK
6 March 2019, 17:34

Below are some key highlights from the weekly oil market report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

1. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.0 million barrels per day during the week ending March 1, 2019, which was 100,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
2. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day.
3. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day.
4. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels from the previous week.
5. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, up by 0.9% from the same period last year.

WTI PRICES FRAGILE, SUPPORTED FOR NOW ABOVE TRENDLINE SUPPORT AT $56 THE FIGURE
6 March 2019, 22:34

 

1. WTI is now developing a bearish bias on the short-term charts, consolidating at the 38.2% Fibo but menacing to the bulls while fragile on the trend line support.
2. WTI is currently trading at 56.16, between a range of 55.48 and 56.38.

WTI has been struggling to maintain its form of late, sliding as trade war angst drags on and supply side headlines dominate the commodity market. For instance, the Energy Information Administration has reported that U.S. crude supplies climbed by 7.1 million barrels for the week ended March 1, denting the price of oil further as traders noted that the average climb of 1.9 million barrels expected was exceeded although slightly lower than the 7.3 million barrel increase reported by the American Petroleum Institute a day earlier. On that data, the April West Texas Intermediate crude contract dipped down a few cents, down 88 cents on the day, or by 1.6%, at $55.68bbls.

Elsewhere, the dollar remains better bid while testing the vicinity of the 97 handle, moving in a range of 96.78 and 96.99 and holding above horizontal support at 96.62, (H&S neckline). While trade war angst lives on coupled with global growth concerns dampening the outlook for demand, the price of the dollar can survive the neutral/dovish Fed sentiment while the U.S. economy holds up.

WTI levels
The price has dipped below the trend line support est.11th Feb. down in the 51 handle. The downside targets below the 38.2% Fibo and recent lows that are located around 55.60/10 are set at the 23.6% Fibo at 50.54. On the flip side, the bulls have eyes on a target of the recent tops of 57.85/93 double-tops.

Current downtrend line (red) has been crossed along with EMA20, up ~80 pips since crossing. Not a breakout of its range from mid-Feb.

Ll1979 , I'm looking for WTI to pull back to the$55.75 area.

Friday's US Non Farm Payroll should be very interesting.

GreenEarth

As timingchain mentioned wti is ranging between 55 and 57.x so it should be a nice setup. My vision on the future is a bit unclear i think equity will be the main driver for a break above 57.x or below 55.