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The Swamp

  • #31,161
  • Mar 2, 2019 5:21pm Mar 2, 2019 5:21pm
Inserted Video
  • #31,162
  • Mar 3, 2019 1:54am Mar 3, 2019 1:54am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} ...I think it should be coming down, but never mind me, I'm a very small time trader...good luck Sir. {image}
Im also in agreement that a usdjpy is getting to the levels one would be opening shorts....

but im struggling to see the fundamental reason behind going short usdjpy.... from a risk on, risk-off perspective
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #31,163
  • Mar 3, 2019 12:07pm Mar 3, 2019 12:07pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Im also in agreement that a usdjpy is getting to the levels one would be opening shorts.... but im struggling to see the fundamental reason behind going short usdjpy.... from a risk on, risk-off perspective
...I don't have a strong opinion ether, just on Sunday open, a move off the one hour chart, a scalp, have a nice weekend....
The Chonchy
  • #31,164
  • Mar 3, 2019 12:13pm Mar 3, 2019 12:13pm
Quoting chonchy
{quote} ...I think it should be coming down, but never mind me, I'm a very small time trader...good luck Sir. {image}
....Sorry this is a one hour chart, my mistake, but daily is up and RSI is tired, so it should come down some time soon, wish is consistent with e/u..... that I think it may go up to at least 1.14

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Chonchy
  • #31,165
  • Mar 3, 2019 12:27pm Mar 3, 2019 12:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
eu is looking bearish to me with this exception.. 1338 needs to be closed below day wise NY time. The same with usdx needing a close above 9653.. these are supportive on eu and Resistance on usdx until closed on the opposite side than now. Week wise close leads me to believe these levels will break. But is may be volatile until it happens or the attempts at it. maybe some more 133x/143x range until a break.. eu 1376 may become more resistant with time, 96.39 supportive for usdx in time. I dont know if eu will just drop or take a week in this 133x/143x...
chart with exception. day candles bearish, but bearish into support 1352 and 1338. Support is support, it needs a day close below. They are so close to 1338, it may be hard to trade. A bearish move may achieve most of this target before the close.

bullish wise, support is not guaranteed to break. pa may still trend above 1338. pa did close the week below 1376 (bearish) bulls are still alive because the process may take many days. the numbers may change some. I say it's bearish below 1338 (day closed). but bouncible above w/o a close. Once below it may have many hours to fail, or bounce back above.

Also I call the day candles bearish, but looking to the left, this is not shown as past resistance. Past resistance is usually a requirement when candle trading. In this unique case, 1376 may be resistance because the week closed below. The day candles reaction there may be stronger now. It may be hidden resistance now. You won't see it until it reacts.

usd 96.39 can be used to support eu either bias with close side.

This wedge is bearish looking with a lower b/o..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,166
  • Mar 3, 2019 2:57pm Mar 3, 2019 2:57pm
96.53 closed day above is positive for eu drop.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,167
  • Mar 3, 2019 3:20pm Mar 3, 2019 3:20pm
not reading much into this.. atm eu may be at 1386. that could force a open above that week # 1376. if so my bearish week number closed, may prove wrong with open.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,168
  • Edited 4:12pm Mar 3, 2019 3:49pm | Edited 4:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
not reading much into this.. atm eu may be at 1386. that could force a open above that week # 1376. if so my bearish week number closed, may prove wrong with open. {image}
its gap up by Bloomberg quote too ...glad I can dump my last long from Friday...

update: closed last Friday 1375 long at 1377..
  • #31,169
  • Mar 3, 2019 4:22pm Mar 3, 2019 4:22pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} its gap up by Bloomberg quote too ...glad I can dump my last long from Friday... update: closed last Friday 1375 long at 1377..
good.. u made a few$

pa is above my 5 min 15 min 30 min 1h 4 h 200 atm. Thats why i want to wait for 1354 and 1338..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,170
  • Mar 3, 2019 4:27pm Mar 3, 2019 4:27pm
Daily red doji are heavily leaning to make a new low today. It could bounce 1334 area. I saw 1384 but missed it. I will wait until tomorrow. Nothing broken to accelerate downside yet. Still waiting
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  • #31,171
  • Mar 3, 2019 4:28pm Mar 3, 2019 4:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} good.. u made a few$ pa is above my 5 min 15 min 30 min 1h 4 h 200 atm. Thats why i want to wait for 1354 and 1338..
Since H4 uptrend stop 1355 held, Euro may still go up early the week...
  • #31,172
  • Mar 3, 2019 4:30pm Mar 3, 2019 4:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} good.. u made a few$ pa is above my 5 min 15 min 30 min 1h 4 h 200 atm. Thats why i want to wait for 1354 and 1338..
I need to change day from 1338 to 1335. the week change 1376 to 1369/70.. the open above is scary. 4h 1376/77.. plus still above the others mentioned. another bull swing not so far fetched.. 1335/69 supportive now. need a day close below..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,173
  • Mar 3, 2019 4:33pm Mar 3, 2019 4:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I need to change day from 1338 to 1335. the week 1369/70.. the open above is scary
Gap up by Trump who said USD is too strong (again)

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/trump-...5-11fb479d51ae
  • #31,174
  • Mar 3, 2019 4:42pm Mar 3, 2019 4:42pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Gap up by Trump who said USD is too strong (again) https://www.fxstreet.com/news/trump-...5-11fb479d51ae
over the weekend news can cause a gap. we will see where it settles.. glad your long was green
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,175
  • Mar 3, 2019 6:44pm Mar 3, 2019 6:44pm
h closing under 1371 may set up that 1354 test
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,176
  • Mar 3, 2019 6:48pm Mar 3, 2019 6:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
h closing under 1371 may set up that 1354 test
just woke up from a nap.. scalp a short here 1368.9 to see
Attached Image
  • #31,177
  • Mar 3, 2019 6:52pm Mar 3, 2019 6:52pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} just woke up from a nap.. scalp a short here 1368.9 to see {image}
Trading Asia? That's usually not your thing.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,178
  • Mar 3, 2019 6:56pm Mar 3, 2019 6:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Trading Asia? That's usually not your thing.
M15 sell signal triggered.. I decided to give it a try...
  • #31,179
  • Mar 3, 2019 6:57pm Mar 3, 2019 6:57pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} M15 sell signal triggered.. I decided to give it a try...
yeah I see the 15.. 1h under 1370 close should help.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #31,180
  • Mar 3, 2019 7:22pm Mar 3, 2019 7:22pm
3/4/2019 Levels

RU R3 ----------1.1416
FP R2 ----------1.1409
WP R1 ----------1.1406
FP R1 ----------1.1396
RU R2 ----------1.1391
RU R1 ----------1.1376
FP PP ----------1.1375
WP PP ----------1.1371
MP PP ----------1.1364
FP S1 ----------1.1354
RU S1 ----------1.1345
FP S2 ----------1.1341
WP S1 ----------1.1336
RU S2 ----------1.1330
FP S3 ----------1.1320
WP S2 ----------1.1314
RU S3 ----------1.1305

Other Info ATM:
H1------DownTrend
H1 Runing Time-----7
H1 Trend Stop-----1.139
H4-----Uptrend
H4 Runing Time-----51
H4 Trend Stop-----1.1359
Day-----DownTrend
Day Runing Time-----26
Day Trend Stop-----1.1408
Weekly-----DownTrend
Week Runing Time-----41
Week Trend Stop-----1.1466
Trading Strategy: -----Range trade, short if 1359 can not hold at H4 close
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