Set and Forget

Week ending 02Mar19

Following on from the post above, I closed all trades again on Thursday when equity rose to over $21000, and we ended the month with equity at $21059, up 3.8% for the month, and 5.9% YTD after 2 months. Overall, with the AUDNZD down at 1.0422, ROE is at 4.3% YTD, which puts us on track towards our 30%p.a. target.

On Friday, I opened 3 trades, which remain open, so current drawdown is at 0.5% from our Equity HWM. I also added a little to the local NZD account, taking the percentage of funds in the local account to a little above 14% of total funds (target is 50%).

Target for March - 2.5%

A rookie mistake yesterday.....when placing my trades last night, I made a typo and added a extra zero on the lot size for an entry order on Silver/NZD. Not a common cross I trade, so I should have been more careful.

So, by the time I checked this morning to see what trades had been taken, this trade was already over $100 in the red although it was just a few pips down. A decision had to be made - either close it at that loss before it got any worse, or hang on to it as surely at some point it would come back those few pips and I could close it at BE (or better still make a few hundred dollars off my mistake!)

Well, I learnt many years ago not to hang on to a trade hoping it will come back, and for the sake of $100 I wasn't going to risk it going down to Dec levels and being $3000 worse off. So I closed it immediately. Yes, Murphys Law, it started going up and I could have made $250+, but it could have easily kept going down.

I also often recall something I read on these forums not long after I joined FF, and that was to PROTECT YOUR ACCOUNT. Yes, that one mistake has cost me a losing trade of approx 0.5% equity, but I still have my 99.5% remaining to trade with. And I feel fine about it. Its been years since I have felt that sinking feeling of being in a losing trade and watching it just get deeper into the red.....

Happy trading everyone!

Wise decision Steve! I for one would have left the trade on... only to watch my account get drained!

I doubt that Dave - you been in FX a fair while yourself, that in itself shows a certain amount of discipline I believe

Week ending 09Mar19

Well, certainly not the week I was hoping for! Actually, that was probably one of the worst (if not the worst) week yet, with a drop in equity of 5.9% on the overall account (Just checked, the worst to date has been 6.2%)

With AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP down across the board, as well as Corn and Soybeans , and USD up, I would have been much better off just tossing a coin before placing trades. 17 trades placed, 16 taken, and 3 TPs hit. Currently 16 trades still open, all in the red at the moment (although that in itself isn't unusual at all)

Drawdown from Equity HWM is 6.4% (from the high at the end of Feb), and the low AUDNZD doesn't help much either. Very mangeable drawdown though.

However, we know there will be ups and downs, and drawdown is still under 10%. We are in fact in a similar position to last year, where we had some big drops in March, and ended up with a negative first quarter.

YTD we are down 2.4% on Equity - better than this time last year - should I just stop trading in the 1st quarter?

Lets see what the rest of the month brings!

Week ending 16Mar19

Off the back of a big losing week last week, we bounced back and had a excellent winning week - up 6.5% on Equity on the AUD account, and up 5.4% on Equity overall (with the AUDNZD lower once more)

We only placed 4 orders last week, all taken, and we had 8 TPs hit (including the only 2 GBP trades I had left). That leaves us with 12 trades still open, predominately AUD and USD crosses. I note that swap costs have been quite high, and a large part of that has been because of Corn and Soybean trades, so will unlikely continue to trade these two commodities.

YTD we are up 3.0% on Equity overall, and drawdown from our HWM is 1.3%. So a little behind target, lets see what the rest of March brings.

On another note, a very sad day in NZ. The shooting yesterday has simply left everybody in shock - that such a thing like that would happen in this country seemed unfathomable.

Week ending 23Mar19

This week was going very well, until Thursday when we saw further drops in the AUD and CAD, which make up about 40% of my total exposure.

I had placed 9 trades this week, of which 8 were taken, and I also had 8 TPs hit, so that was pleasing.

All up, we were down 1.8% on the AUD account though, and 2.0% overall (with the AUDNZD finishing below 1.0300) That means we are currently up only 0.9% YTD. However, the AUDNZD is currently at levels that have only been seen twice before since the NZD was floated in 1985 - for a couple of weeks in Sep16, and Mar/Apr15 (when it almost reached parity). So although there is still downward pressure, I would be very wary of shorting it at these levels, and it is only a matter of time before it shoots back up again. While the Oz economy is having a few issues at the moment, the trade/travel dynamic between NZ and AUD means that it will eventually regress towards the "mean". This may be a good time to actually put money into the AUD account.

We currently have 12 trades open, with Margin Used about 29% of NAV. Total drawdown from HWM is 3.2%. Lets see what the last week of March brings!

Week ending 30Mar19

All up a positive week, although a little frustrating because equity in the AUD a/c has been bouncing up and down within the same range for a while now, and just can't seem to break through the $21,000 barrier. If I was a FX trader, I would probably draw a resistance line on my equity chart at that level

So, a 2.3% gain on equity for the week, which means we end the month down at -1.0%, however for the quarter (and YTD) we are up 4.6% on the AUD a/c and 3.2% overall, with the AUDNZD recovering a little this week to end up over 1.04 (I still feel this will reach 1.06 or even 1.08+ at some point this year)

Currently 14 trades open, the oldest being AUDNZD from 01March, and Margin Used is just over 30% of NAV.

I topped up the NZD account of Friday, now have over $4000 in it, and that takes the percentage of total funds in a NZ bank to about 15.6% (target is currently 50%).

Overall, still gaining, albeit slowly (target is 30%pa, currently on course for about 14%pa). Drawdown from the HWM (adjusted for deposits) is at 1.0%. The highest to date this year has been about 6.4%, so there is definitely some room for increasing the risk slightly. Therefore, I will increase the take-profit target on each trade to 0.2% of NAV.

Reset 03Apr19

The first few days of this month have been very good, with an overall increase in Equity of 2.4%, taking us to 5.8% YTD. Finally we seem to have taken that jump through the $21000 barrier in the AUD account, so I have taken the opportunity to "reset". As such, all trades closed, and then I have reopened them at the new levels.

Our new HWM is NZ$26320.

Week ending 06Apr19

Ok, so we are back under the $21000 equity line. I reset all trades on Wednesday, and re-entered with the increased profit targets I set. And the equity came back again...

On the positive. the AUDNZD made its way back up, closing in on the 1.06 mark - it was just a matter of time.

So while we ended up with no change to the AUD by the end of the week, we were up 1.1% in the overall account, and that takes us to 4.4% YTD.

We currently have 13 trades open, and are sitting at 1.3% drawdown from our HWM that we hit midweek. I have only placed 3 orders for this week.

Reset 11Apr19

As planned, this year there will be more "resets" as equity grows. So more trades closed out in losses, but more profits locked in.

Another good couple of days, and our AUD account was showing $21602 in Equity. There had been about 6 trades hit TP earlier in the week, and others in the green, so "reset" done and the remaining 9 trades closed. Equity for the month is up 4.7%, and that takes us to 8.2% YTD, with the increase in the AUDNZD helping there.

So a new HWM of $26914 in the overall NZD terms, and I have just opened another 17 trades. At this rate, ROE for the year would be over 30%, but lets not count our chickens yet.

Week ending 13Apr

Another reset done last night. Although one was done only a couple of days ago, after I reopened the trades, equity dropped back again, especially from AUD and USD trades. Late last night, as I was coming home from the casino, I happened to check my FX accounts, noted they had rebounded up past my previous HWM, so I decided to once more take the profits offered on the table (just like I do at the roulette wheel )

That means a 4.4% gain in Equity for the week, 5.5% for MTD, and 9.0% YTD. More importantly, I do not have any trades open. Our new HWM is NZ$27118 (with both gains and deposits, the target is NZ$50,000 by Xmas)

Excelent!!!
Well done, good work.
So far, this "reset" in your approach seems to help a lot to lower down the drawdown, and thus smooth the equity, and the balance.

All the best,
J-F

Thanks J-F, that's the idea (although not too worried about the Balance figures). I have increased the risk a little so I need to manage it a little tighter. Highest drawdown (from Equity HWM) so far this year has been 6.4%.

The plan is to continue building the overall account with gains in the AUD account, and deposits into the NZ bank account. I also want to make transfers from the AUD account (that is with the broker) to withdraw my initial deposit with them, leaving only profits sitting in the broker account. Ideally, I will have 50% with the broker, 50% in NZ. That way I would need a 50% drawdown on the total account to go into a margin call on the AUD account, at which point I would probably close it at a zero balance. I would still have 50% of my total funds safe in the NZ bank account (which would be more than all my deposits anyway), and it would be time to quit FX... or at least find another system.

But that is an absolute worse case scenario. At the moment it is going well, and since only use S&F trades in this account (from Feb17 onwards) it is achieving an average of 1.93% monthly. I think that is an acceptable return.

How is all going with you?

I really like the way you think with how to manage trading money between accounts (bank and broker).
It completely makes sense.

I agree, 1.93% monthly as an average is clearly a very decent return with your S&F approach.
With a nice size account, and the time involved, I would be more than happy with it!!!!
I can't see how anyone could think otherwise.

On my side, all good for me, nothing has changed really on the live accounts, always following the positive swap, for positive (so far at least) but very small return.

For the last couple of months, I have been working on a completely new approach on NQ on the e-mini futures, following an interesting group that trade the e-mini (NQ and YM principally) .
Everything is completely new and challenging to me, but clearly the conditions seem attractive: low commission less than 1 tick cost per contract, no spread, good volume and movement at the 9:30am opening. It moves a lot with low commission compared to the movement.

It is kind of the complete opposite of my positive swap approach on Forex, as I trade with very tight SL and high leverage (per contract: $5 a tick, for only $500 intraday margin).
So far, surprisingly, it is actually reasonably encouraging (SIM account obviously), but I am very careful as like a lot of "wannabe traders" I had that feeling before that at some point the finishing line seems not too far away, to discover after a while that it is actually not that close...

Anyway, in short all is good, no worries at all, even if I haven't achieved what I would seek to achieve in my trading :0)

I'll keep following your progress as I like that they are "real" and very interesting.
Thanks a lot for all the updates you regularly post, and I keep my fingers crossed that it carries on going the right direction for you.

All the best.
Cheers,
J-F

Week ending 20Apr19

An average week in the end, with a 0.6% gain in Equity. After the reset last Friday, I placed 18 trades on Sunday, and 17 were taken during the week. 8 TPs were hit, however the rise in USD against most currencies meant we were slightly down on the AUD account. The AUDNZD however rose to 1.07, and that means we are now 9.6% up on Equity for the year overall.

Our new HWM is NZ$27279. There are currently 9 trades open.

Week Ending 27Apr19 & Month Ending 30Apr19

Last week was one of the worst weeks I have had since the start of this system. Of course, I have increased the risk too, so a bad week was also going to be worse than previous bad weeks. An overall drop in equity of 7.2% for the week, although the start of this week (and the end of the month) has seen a rebound of 2.8%.

That means we are up only 1.2% for the month and 4.5% YTD. The AUD account crept down to the $20000 mark, although as I write this it is back up towards $21000. We saw a drawdown on the Equity HWM of 7.2%, the highest it has been for some time. DD is currently sitting at around 4.6%

There are 15 trades still open at the moment, and Margin Used is approx 35% of Equity. Most exposure (and running losses) are in the AUD crosses (and we saw the AUDNZD drop from 1.070 to 1.055 in the last week of April too, which hasn't helped)

On the positive, I have been offered a new position in my company, which I have accepted. This will provide slightly more income, and I intend to use some of this to put more funds into my FX account in NZ. I have started by adding another $500 on Monday. That means the NZ funds now make up just over 17% of my total (aim is to have 50% in a local bank account).

So at 3.4% YTD return in the first 4 months puts us on target for about a 14% ROE for the year. That is below our target range of 25%-30% but still much better than the banks, and for minimal time and effort made

Update 21 June 19

Thanks Dave for the message. In May, I had a huge health scare. Short version is that everything is fine. Basically, As part of a in-depth medical (I am doing my private pilot's licence, so a rigorous medical is a must), some very worrying results came out. I was referred to a specialist, and it turns out there is no concern whatsoever - my results are very atypical, and it is rare they show when there is no underlying issue, but not impossible apparently.

So with the hours I am now working in the new job, and the health scare (and that's all it was, a scare, and a costly one at that), trading was non existent. But in that time, the GBP dropped, as did the Aussie, and I didn't/couldn't take advantage to double down on a few positions. In summary, the account is basically back to the level it was at the start of the year (actually slightly below).

However, a new development has meant all trading is now on hold indefinitely. Oanda is going to close my account due to regulatory changes.

So not really in a good frame of mind to trade. And not sure how, or even if, I can continue trading in FX. I have tried a few other international brokers without luck. Will do more research later in the year.

Anyway, below are the screen shots of my current positions. I have closed my trades in my smaller account that I used for another trading system, and will soon close all trades in the S&F account. But I'll be back in a few months when the desire comes back, and I work out a way to trade again.

All the best,

Steve

Glad to see that health is OK at the end.
Obviously trading comes far far away behind that.

I have just had an email too, from IC Market (AUS) saying that they can't have foreigners anymore.
Quite annoying from a trading point of view (I was happy with them, as I felt they have good leverage, and low commission/spread for forex), but well it is what it is, and like a lot of people I guess I need to remove that account.

Steve, I wish you all the best for the future, and a very good health.

Green pips as icing on the cake!
Cheers,
J-F

The same to you my friend!

So all accounts closed and I have withdrawn all my funds from Oanda. Funds were in my account with 48 hours, so no problem with Oanda in that respect.

Options for trading FX here in NZ appear limited, but I'll keep looking.

Last two screenshots attached, showing closed account balance at Oanda and transfer to my NZ account. At least I've been able to make a little money and save some at the same time!

Hasta la proxima!