[quote=newhope;11840394]Hi All, Happy new year 2019 !!! May we all get green pips in this coming year ....
Hello Newhope,
first of all a happy new year 2019 I wish you this year a lot of success in the trade and that all your wishes come true.
The problem on the stock exchange or in the interbank market is that one unfortunately only smarter afterwards. Unfortunately, such things can not be calculated or predicted in advance. Many price movements are never dependent on news or market situations, but are based on opinions of individual traders or institutions. It is always interesting what explanations the press finds after such course jumps. That sounds logical, but to find out the true reason, you would have to ask all traders why they acted that way. Each dealer will probably have other reasons for doing so and many will not know it anymore.
For that reason even insider knowledge does not help much today because you never know how the market reacts to it. On the stock exchange, an unexpected earnings message can also cause a fall in price as investors do not believe that such a return can be repeated. Similarly, a profit warning can provide a rising price because investors believe in the company. Likewise, Fed or ECB actions have a positive or negative impact on currencies.
We work in a market that does not act logically. Because if everything was logical, most could understand it and thus the market would be predictable. And unfortunately he is not. Maybe one could also say, luckily it is not logical and therefore it is profitable for the traders who do not approach the market with logic.
The price was 70 pip down and 70 pip up today, was that the shutdown or was it due to other reasons? Although a shutdown weakens the dollar for a moment, it does not strengthen the euro. The US is one of the richest countries in the world, so you do not go bankrupt because of a shutdown. In the last 42 years there have been 20 shoutdowns in the US and they are still among the most powerful countries in the world. Of course, this has an impact on the EURUSD, but unfortunately we just do not know when and in which strength.
While supply and demand can not predict unexpected sharp downward price movements, it is possible to see where buyers can possibly re-enter the market. And this approach is worth a lot if you only move in the market for a short time. Why are the high frequency traders today so dangerous for all traders? Because they complete their trades within a few minutes. They are not predictable. Being Scalper is dangerous, but very effective in mastering this type of trade. I do not trade and wait as it develops, but I know in advance where to go in and get out. What happens after that I do not care. I'm not annoyed if I lose and I'm not angry because I'm out too early. My only goal is to be better at the end of the month than at the beginning of the month.
What would we do if we knew that we can not fail?
We can not prepare for this market or develop strategies that help us. Many go with a dinghy on the sea and see what happens. I also go out to sea, but mostly only in good weather. When a storm comes up, I'm waiting in the safe harbor for the next ray of sunshine. Certainly I will never be billionaire with this attitude, but I never go bankrupt.
No matter what happens in the market, the hardest job of a trader is to find his right way. Maybe supply and demand will help you a bit, but it takes a lot of time and nerves to find your way. Do not despair and believe in yourself, you come every day a little further. And just then, when you think you're moving backwards, you've really taken a huge step forward. The problem of us traders is, that nobody tell us.
I wish you a lot of success and stay on the ball.
best regards
Hello Newhope,
first of all a happy new year 2019 I wish you this year a lot of success in the trade and that all your wishes come true.
The problem on the stock exchange or in the interbank market is that one unfortunately only smarter afterwards. Unfortunately, such things can not be calculated or predicted in advance. Many price movements are never dependent on news or market situations, but are based on opinions of individual traders or institutions. It is always interesting what explanations the press finds after such course jumps. That sounds logical, but to find out the true reason, you would have to ask all traders why they acted that way. Each dealer will probably have other reasons for doing so and many will not know it anymore.
For that reason even insider knowledge does not help much today because you never know how the market reacts to it. On the stock exchange, an unexpected earnings message can also cause a fall in price as investors do not believe that such a return can be repeated. Similarly, a profit warning can provide a rising price because investors believe in the company. Likewise, Fed or ECB actions have a positive or negative impact on currencies.
We work in a market that does not act logically. Because if everything was logical, most could understand it and thus the market would be predictable. And unfortunately he is not. Maybe one could also say, luckily it is not logical and therefore it is profitable for the traders who do not approach the market with logic.
The price was 70 pip down and 70 pip up today, was that the shutdown or was it due to other reasons? Although a shutdown weakens the dollar for a moment, it does not strengthen the euro. The US is one of the richest countries in the world, so you do not go bankrupt because of a shutdown. In the last 42 years there have been 20 shoutdowns in the US and they are still among the most powerful countries in the world. Of course, this has an impact on the EURUSD, but unfortunately we just do not know when and in which strength.
While supply and demand can not predict unexpected sharp downward price movements, it is possible to see where buyers can possibly re-enter the market. And this approach is worth a lot if you only move in the market for a short time. Why are the high frequency traders today so dangerous for all traders? Because they complete their trades within a few minutes. They are not predictable. Being Scalper is dangerous, but very effective in mastering this type of trade. I do not trade and wait as it develops, but I know in advance where to go in and get out. What happens after that I do not care. I'm not annoyed if I lose and I'm not angry because I'm out too early. My only goal is to be better at the end of the month than at the beginning of the month.
What would we do if we knew that we can not fail?
We can not prepare for this market or develop strategies that help us. Many go with a dinghy on the sea and see what happens. I also go out to sea, but mostly only in good weather. When a storm comes up, I'm waiting in the safe harbor for the next ray of sunshine. Certainly I will never be billionaire with this attitude, but I never go bankrupt.
No matter what happens in the market, the hardest job of a trader is to find his right way. Maybe supply and demand will help you a bit, but it takes a lot of time and nerves to find your way. Do not despair and believe in yourself, you come every day a little further. And just then, when you think you're moving backwards, you've really taken a huge step forward. The problem of us traders is, that nobody tell us.
I wish you a lot of success and stay on the ball.
best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
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