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“ROLLING IN THE DEEP DEBT: HIGH HOPES AND FALSE CONFIDENCE”

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“Surveys show that all over the world people are losing faith in large institutions, so we’re paddling against the current in trying to sustain public faith in the Fed,”

Quote from Fed Chairman Jay Powell in a Washington town hall for teachers on 2/6/19 pointing to the potential of investors’ “false confidence” in global central banks. The public may be losing faith and confidence but it doesn’t seem like investors are at the moment.
“Jerome Powell is a prisoner of the institutions and the history he has inherited. Among this inheritance is a $4 trillion balance sheet under which the Fed has $39 billion of capital representing 100-1 leverage. That’s a symptom of the overstretched state of our debts and the dollar as an institution.”

Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, commenting on CNBC on 1/30/19 after Jay Powell’s press conference, pointing out just how “deep” the Fed’s “debt” actually is. It seems to me that Chairman Powell has inherited a very tough situation.

“The abruptness of Chair Powell's policy U-turn did not help the Fed's credibility (some have argued it's the largest shift in Fed policy intentions in history absent a market shock), and the Fed will have an uphill battle in communicating a hike if so intended. In this sense, Powell seems to have boxed himself into a corner, compared to either Yellen or Bernanke, whose high market sensitivity and complete policy flexibility (with inflation risks far in the distance) helped create the low vol bubble.”

Commentary from Bank of America included in a 2/5/19 Zero Hedge piece that supports my 2019 theme and thesis of central bankers and investors being “TRAPPED”; it also raises the issue of Fed credibility and the necessary “confidence” in the Fed and other central bankers to keep markets and economies from succumbing to fear and panic.

“The world has been like this many times before …. except not with trillions of dollars of debt and leverage.”
Quote from astute Raoul Pal, of the Global Macro Investor from a Real Vision interview with colleague Grant Williams, lending another supporting view of the “rolling in the deep debt” syndrome the world finds itself in.

“We could have had it all, rolling in the deep”
That of course is the punch line from pop superstar with the super voice Adele, from her monster breakout 2011 hit “Rolling in the Deep”; that with my addition of the word “debt” after “deep” sets the backdrop for the uncomfortable debt dilemma we find ourselves in today. Yes, “we could have had it all” if debt didn’t matter, but despite too much current belief in the “doesn’t matter” part of that statement, I believe “debt does matter” and we’re on the verge of it mattering in a big way. Showing you “why” will be one of main objectives in this Letter.

“High Hopes” is the current chart topping hit by Las Vegas-based American rock band Panic! at the Disco, that puts the current rally that very much looks, smells and feels like a “bear market rally” in its proper frame; a rally built on a lot of “high hopes”. No ‘panic” at the moment after the Q4 2018 “panic”, but the group’s name reminds me of the infamous 2007 Citigroup chairman and CEO Chuck Prince quote framed in a 7/10/2007 Business Times article:
‘When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing,” he said in an interview with the FT in Japan. Now the prospect of Chuck Prince dancing is in itself unsettling.”


Yes when the music stopped the “panic” known as the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 did ensue at the “disco”. “Dancers” need to again be aware of the mounting risks developing in today’s economic and investment “disco”.

Completing my Letter title is “False Confidence”, which is the catchy alternative hit by new up and coming 21 year old Vermont born singer-songwriter Noah Kahan. “Confidence” in central banker’s ability to sustain the 10 year asset rally, or should I say bubble, after all has been the key ingredient from an investor standpoint. “Confidence” though, can be broken and its’ rationale could certainly be proven to be “false”; to me it feels like we are in the process of testing that “confidence” as global economic growth continues to wilt..

This Investment Letter will be a little more quote-heavy than usual, but I think the quotes will be instructive, thought provoking and in some cases even a little humorous in making the case of why “debt” may matter again.


ROLLING IN THE DEEP DEBT
One of my favorite “reads” to ring in the New Year for a number of years is Dave Collum’s “Year in Review”. Collum is a Chemistry and Chemical Biology Professor at Cornell University; he brings a very libertarian point of view to the table and dissects some of the lunacy in place today in economics, investing and politics among other things. The report is an “opus” of ”not politically correct” observations and quotes that really illuminate some of our problems. I’ll share with you some of Collum’s observations on “debt” that hopefully will help me evidence my contention that “debt” may inevitably matter again.

I’ll start with a quote from English novelist George Elliot from his book “Silas Marner” that Collum used to effectively illustrate that the long length of this calm economic/credit/market cycle has lulled investors into a false complacency:
“The lapse of time during which a given event has not happened is . . . alleged as a reason why the event should never happen, even when the lapse of time is precisely the added condition which makes the event imminent.”

Precisely! The odds for an imminent bad “event” are increasing not decreasing because of the amount of time that has elapsed from the last event. Tack on all the mounting warning signs I’ve been writing about in previous Letters and the threat becomes even clearer.
Collum answers the root question of “what is debt” channeling his best “Popeye”?

“Debt is consumption pulled forward. The bill for that hamburger you eat today is coming due on Tuesday, Wimpy.”
Yes, “the bill is coming due” for all of us and it is a rapidly increasing bill all around the world. Collum posits on whether we could be in a “bubble”:
“All I care about are valuations. It has been said that "record-high equity valuations don't mean poor returns are imminent, only inevitable." The big risk is buying poor assets during good times. Although 2007–09 was painful, the 2007 market wasn’t even an equity bubble but rather a real estate and credit bubble caused by the Fed keeping rates too low for too long. The Mullahs of Macro's response to the collapse was to keep rates way lower for way longer. Paradoxically, it seems both moronic and, for now, effective, but is it? Or are we in another bubble?”


In pointing out the almost desperate attempt that global central bankers have embarked upon in the last 10 years with their unprecedented interventions, low and even negative interest rates and creation of market distortions, Collum quotes Tony Deden, the founder of Edelweiss Holdings:
“We have abolished the idea of failure—nature’s cleansing mechanism. As a consequence, we’ve lost real economic vitality. We’ve substituted finance for industry as the locomotive of economic growth. In GDP terms, it looks terrific. But it is neither enduring nor real.”


I’ve been writing much about the “financialization” of the economy in this cycle, best exemplified in my opinion by the gargantuan self-serving corporate stock buyback programs executed by Corporate America. It’s no coincidence that the last two market peaks (2000 and 2007) coincided with peaks in corporate stock buybacks. This cycle’s record buybacks in 2018, estimated to be approximately $1 trillion by CNBC, even in the face of a tougher stock market especially reek of desperation. Add in the fact that in this cycle, historically low interest rates incented even more debt-fueled purchases and it’s easy to see the simultaneous extreme market dependence and market risk that buybacks have created.

Other unintended consequences of QE like wealth and income inequality are well messaged in Collum’s use of investing legend Rudy Haverstein’s funny but sad quote:
“The greatest economic recovery the top 0.1% has ever seen.”

Collum channels my “false confidence” message in his quote:
“The storyline behind this particular bull run—central banks and their gargantuan interventions have our backs covered in perpetuity—is the most pathetic and insane bubble narrative in history, but it is now deeply ingrained in the market’s psyche.”

That faith in central banks’ ability to continue to ‘kick the can down the road” and support the elevated asset cycle “in perpetuity” (in perpetuity is a long time) is incredibly engrained in market psyche, in a very frightening way, and squarely backs up my Investment Letter title of “HIGH HOPES AND FALSE CONFIDENCE”.
Collum points to some of the 2018 lunacy that occurred at market “extremes”:
“Let’s look at some of the silly, idiosyncratic events that happen when investors lose their minds:
- As noted below, companies doubled their market caps by adding blockchain to their name or issuing a cryptocurrency.

- An 18-year-old launched a hedge fund from his bedroom in suburban New Jersey.

- Equities ran 300+% off the lows while the Gross Domestic Product tracked the Great Depression, compounding at 2% per year.

- Value investing strategies have performed in the bottom 1 percentile since 1990

- The S&P ran 14 months in a row without a monthly loss

- 60% of corporate debt issued by companies in the Russell 2000 is rated as “junk.”

Take a look at the third bullet point from above again; it is too meaningful and too provocative to gloss over. In Collum’s 2017 “Year In Review”, he shared this amazing statistical comparison that I included in my DECEMBER TWO 2017 Investment Letter titled “2017 REVIEW: UP & UP/2018 PREVIEW: WHERE THE STREETS HAVE NO NAME” that I really need to show you again:
GDP growth rates from 1930–39 and 2007–16 were as follows:
GDP growth in the 1930’s
1930: –8.5% 1935: 8.9%
1931: –6.4% 1936: 12.9%
1932: –12.9% 1937: 5.1%
1933: –1.3% 1938: –3.3%
1934: 10.8% 1939: 8.0%


GDP growth in the new millennium
2007: 1.8% 2012: 2.2%
2008: –0.3% 2013: 1.7%
2009: –2.8% 2014: 2.4%
2010: 2.5% 2015: 2.6%
2011: 1.6% 2016: 1.6%
(Collum, 2017)


Whether you use the arithmetic or geometric mean, both gave us 1.3 percent annualized growth. Let’s spell this out: during the recent era in which markets soared, the economy tracked the Great Depression. It is instructive to look at the economy with a little more granularity than the writers at The Economist-Lite.”

Incredibly both the 10 year periods 1930-1939 and 2007-2016 produced 1.3% annual growth rates! Especially incredible when you factor in the significant stock market returns we’ve seen since the March 2009 stock market bottom. The ups and downs were obviously more pronounced in the 1930s and today’s U.S. economy is obviously significantly larger but the comparison clearly illustrates how meager economic growth has been since the financial crisis. Investors exuding confidence in central banks’ ability to levitate stock markets is staggering.

Also interestingly, if you add two more years to the comparison (the balance.com), the differences become even starker and the low growth environment we’re currently in becomes even more apparent:
1940: 8.8% 1941: 17.7%
And
2017: 2.2% 2018: being generous estimate even 3.0%
(theBalance.com)

Certainly no one is rooting for a war to produce economic growth but stock markets have obviously had a very low bar to cross to create outsized returns; the term ‘financialization” againcomes to mind.

Collum ends his “Debt” section of his “2018 Year in Review” with a very introspective question:
“For the most part, the markets have made conservative investors—what we call Cassandras, Chicken Littles, Grumpy Old Men, and Nouveau impoverished—look like fools. Has the top reared its ugly head this year with the entertainment just beginning? If not, when?”

Dave Collum I feel your pain, but I sense that unfortunately for the unprepared, you’ll may be proven to be very right.

FALSE CONFIDENCE
Happy anniversary Japan! According to Barron’s, Japan introduced the world to ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and dropped interest rates to 0% in February 1999, where they continue to reside today. How have those low, or better said, no rates worked out?

I’ll share some recent annual GDP stats for Japan from Wikipedia after telling you that Q3 2018 GDP growth was -2.4% (yes negative) and a not so whopping 1.3% in Q4 2018:
2015: 1.4% 2016: 1.0% 2017: 1.7% 2018 1.0%

Going further back than 2015 gives you a lot more of the same. We also know how aggressive the BOJ (Bank of Japan), Japan’s central bank, has been in “supporting” Japanese asset markets. With all the recent debate about our Fed’s large balance sheet I found this commentary on Japan from Wolf Richter of Wolf Street from his 2/4/19 report to be very pertinent:
“The balance sheet is now 101.5% of Japan’s nominal GDP (¥549 trillion, not adjusted for inflation), which makes it over five times as large in terms of the economy as the Fed’s $4-trillion balance sheet, amounting to 19.6% of US nominal GDP ($20.6 trillion). This is how crazy the situation at the BOJ has become.”


The BOJ’s balance sheet is a shocking 5x larger than the Fed’s as a percentage of GDP. How aggressive have the BOJ’s asset purchases been? Again according to Wolf Street:
“The BOJ has been buying mostly Japanese government securities (JGBs and short-term bills). But it also buys some equity ETFs, Japanese REITs, and corporate bonds. Japanese government securities are the largest asset class on the balance sheet. The amount of these securities rose in January by ¥3.9 trillion from the prior month, to ¥471.5 trillion.


This amounts to nearly 50% of all outstanding Japanese government debt – up from about 14% in late 2012.”

The BOJ is certainly “rolling in the deep debt” owning nearly half of all Japanese government bonds. Before you get too excited about accepting this policy as “good” and “beneficial”, let’s look at the Japanese stock market as measured by the Nikkei. Getting back to that 20 year ZIRP anniversary, the Nikkei in February 1999 (Thomson) was trading around the 14,000 point mark and the ZIRP announcement caused a sharp rally that by February 2000 took the Nikkei to just under 20,000.

Pay attention; sadly, the Nikkei closed on 2/15/19 at 20,900, despite zero interest rates and massive government buying of Japanese government bonds and equity ETFs. That 900 or so Nikkei points gain, less than a cumulative 5% in the 19 years since February 2000 are a shocking and eerie reminder of what a deflationary debt trap looks like. For an even broader perspective on how stock markets really do require economic growth, go back to the 12/29/89 closing high of 38,915.
How active has the BOJ been in the Japanese stock market? Putting the BOJ ownership of Japanese ETFs in perspective reveals these mind boggling numbers from a 126/18 Reuters article titled: “Kuroda Defends Japan Central Bank’s ETF Buying, Sees No Near Term Exit”

“The BOJ now owns 77.5% of Japan’s ETF market, having bought nearly 23 trillion yen of the product since 2013.”
Imagine where the Nikkei would be without BOJ intervention? Japan is setting the distorted central bank policy pace chock full of unintended negative consequences. Japan is an example that the rest of the world seems intent on copying; Europe appears to be well on track.


Speaking of Europe and negative interest rates check out this LinkedIn post from Daniel Lacalle, Chief Economist and Investment officer at European investment firm Tressis Geston, where he details how far out in maturity, sovereign bonds in many European nations go out on the yield curve and still incredibly remain negative yielding:
2/13 Daniel Lacalle post Punish prudent savers, perpetuate imbalances, reward excessive risk... What can go wrong?
Negative Bond Yields:
10 yrs: Switzerland, Japan
9 yrs: Germany
8 yrs: Denmark
6 yrs: Netherlands, Finland
5 yrs: Belgium, Sweden, Austria, France, Slovakia
4 yrs: Ireland
3 yrs: Spain
2 yrs: Slovenia, Portugal
1 yr: Malta, Bulgaria


I don’t know about you, but it’s difficult for me to get my head around negative interest rates. 10 year bonds yielding negative? I don’t mean to pick on Bulgaria, but Rick Santelli of CNBC pointed out that Bulgaria has a BBB rating and still has negative yielding short term rates. Central bank induced distortion perhaps?
But those negative rates have surely helped the European economy you ask (much sarcasm intended)? The 2/14/19 CNBC headline read:
“Germany narrowly escapes recession after flat growth in the fourth quarter.”
•Germany has narrowly avoided a technical recession after it posted flat growth in the fourth quarter
•Preliminary data showed growth of 0.0 percent in the fourth quarter, below a Reuters forecast of 0.1 percent.
•The data raises concerns that Europe's largest economy is continuing to slow down.

At least it was better than Q3 2018’s -0.2% growth; talk about barely avoiding a recession.
Italy didn’t fare as well, according to this 1/31/19 BBC report:
“Italy in recession amid sluggish eurozone. Italy's economy tipped into recession at the end of last year, according to latest figures. In the final three months of 2018, the economy shrank by 0.2%, following a 0.1% decline in the third quarter, the Istat statistics office said.”
Low rates and “confidence” in central banks in the end may not necessarily mean the same thing, wouldn’t you say?

Speaking of recessions, Morgan Stanley equity strategist Mike Wilson whose “against consensus” bearish market calls were right on the mark last year, is again feeling queasy about markets after the sharp post-Christmas rally we’ve witnessed in the face of generally less-than-flattering economic news. Wilson is worried about a retest of the Christmas stock market lows and an earnings recession”( which is two negative year over year earnings declines). Here are a couple of recent Wilson warning quotes to heed:
From a 1/21/18 report, talking about the recent rally:
“we don’t think this will hold up because the things we, and the market, have been worrying about for the past six months are now taking shape and turning out to be worse than we expected in some cases.”


A couple of alarming highlights from Wilson’s 2/11 report:
"Earnings Revisions Have Been Some Of The Worst We’ve Ever Observed”

We are increasingly convinced that consensus earnings expectations for 2019 have further to fall and that the optimistic uptick currently baked into 4Q19 estimates is unlikely to happen. A modest further decline in earnings will deliver the earnings recession we called for.”
Did I mention ‘false confidence” in central banks? It seems investors have a severe case of…..

HIGH HOPES
“High hopes” indeed; with all the negative economic and earnings forecasts not showing any signs of slowing down or even flat-lining, there seems to be an excess of “high hopes” and “false confidence” out there.

I won’t repeat my last Letter’s commentary on the ridiculous day to day market reactions to the U.S./China trade talks (go back and read “BAD BAD NEWS FOR THE EMINENCE FRONT: WE WON’T GET FOOLED AGAIN”), but “high hopes” may be an understatement as far as investor expectations are concerned.

My advice remains to take advantage of the currently rally and reduce risk in equities. Slowing economic growth continues to bode well to being exposed to long dated U.S. treasury bonds and lastly keep and increase exposure to precious metals primarily through the miners (more on this a future Letter).

I hope I made a case for disavowing the view that “debt doesn’t really matter”; I hope I evidenced the fact that low rates alone don’t prevent weak economic growth and they won’t eliminate the ugly “other side” of the current monstrous global credit cycle. I’ll leave you with the parting words of a recent quote from the Barron’s Roundtable by Rupal Bhansali, Chief Investment Officer of International & Global Equities for Ariel Investments alluding to the changed perception and negative connotation of two four letter words:
“Cash will no longer be a four letter word. Debt will become a four letter word.”

…. and we are “ROLLING IN THE DEEP DEBT”.


David Janny
Senior Vice President
Senior Portfolio Manager
Financial Advisor
NMLS# 1279369
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
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https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/21/wh...the-qe-unwind/

What the Fed Actually Said About Ending the QE Unwind
by Wolf Richter • Feb 21, 2019 • 11 Comments

A plan is forming with a slow-motion component, and everyone wants to get rid of MBS
In the minutes of the January 29-30 FOMC meeting, published yesterday, the Fed added some tidbits about how it wants to deal with its “balance sheet normalization.” These minutes are always the most mind-numbing repetitive prose available in the English language. They’re clearly designed to not ever be read by a human. So I sorted it out. Here we go.

Not a word about rate cuts; it’s all about hikes:
The Fed put the world on notice that it might remove the newly beloved “patient” when it comes to rate hikes:
Many participants observed that if uncertainty abated, the Committee would need to reassess the characterization of monetary policy as “patient” and might then use different statement language.

And it also discussed rate hikes, when and if, while there was not a word about rate cuts: “Several of these participants argued that rate increases might prove necessary only if inflation outcomes were higher than in their baseline outlook.”

And those that are little more eager for a rate hike: “Several other participants indicated that, if the economy evolved as they expected, they would view it as appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate later this year.

The QE unwind is still on autopilot:
That the QE unwind would continue on autopilot at least until the next meeting was clear from the post-meeting Implementation Notes, released on January 30. And it was repeated in the minutes – same language as it has been since late 2017.

“The Committee directs the Desk to continue rolling over at auction….” Up to $30 billion in Treasury securities and up to $20 billion in mortgage-backed securities would be allowed to mature and roll off the balance sheet without replacement, same as before.

Fed is stunned the little-bitty QE Unwind got blamed for suddenly sinking the market.
For about a year, the markets totally brushed off the QE unwind. Suddenly, in late 2018 all heck broke loose in the markets. Wall Street blamed the QE unwind. This is still puzzling the Fed. They’d expected “some upward pressure” on yields of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) “over time,” but they didn’t expect a selloff in stocks, junk bonds, leveraged loans, and other risky assets:
Participants raised a number of questions about market reports that the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet runoff and associated “quantitative tightening” had been an important factor contributing to the selloff in equity markets in the closing months of last year. While respondents assessed that the reduction of securities held in the SOMA would put some modest upward pressure on Treasury yields and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) yields over time, they generally placed little weight on balance sheet reduction as a prime factor spurring the deterioration in risk sentiment over that period.

However, some other investors reportedly held firmly to the belief that the runoff of the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings was a factor putting significant downward pressure on risky asset prices, and the investment decisions of these investors, particularly in thin market conditions around the year-end, might have had an outsized effect on market prices for a time.


Paying Interest on “Excess Reserves” works in controlling short-term rates, but reserves have to be large enough, requiring a larger balance sheet than before:
By paying interest on required and excess reserves after the Financial Crisis, the Fed shifted its “operating regime” in how it implements its interest rate policy. Reserves are on the liability side of the balance sheet, along with “currency in circulation” (paper dollars used and hoarded globally). They must be balanced by assets on the asset side. In other words, a higher level of reserves and currency in circulation require a higher level of assets.

The “effectiveness and efficiency” of this operating regime determine what size the balance sheet should decline to. The goal is to whittle down the reserves, and therefore also the asset side of the balance sheet to “no more securities holdings than necessary to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively.”
The Fed notes, after looking at the evidence, that the “current regime was therefore effective both in providing control of the policy rate and in ensuring transmission of the policy stance to other rates and broader financial markets.”

The “staff” presents some options on how to handle the reserves:
These reserves have already dropped by $1.2 trillion from the peak and continue to drop. But how much lower should they be allowed to go?
Some recent survey information and other evidence suggested that reserves might begin to approach an efficient level later this year.

So “later this year” would be the earliest opportunity. In this respect, the “staff presented options for substantially slowing the decline in reserves by ending the reduction in asset holdings at some point over the latter half of this year…”

The Fed laments that “market commentary” blamed the selloff on the QE unwind.
Participants discussed market commentary that suggested that the process of balance sheet normalization might be influencing financial markets. Participants noted that the ongoing reduction in the Federal Reserve’s asset holdings had proceeded smoothly for more than a year, with no significant effects on financial markets.
The gradual reduction in securities holdings had been announced well in advance and, as intended, was proceeding largely in the background, with the federal funds rate remaining the Committee’s primary tool for adjusting the stance of policy.

Nonetheless, some investors might have interpreted previous communications as indicating that a very high threshold would have to be met before the Committee would be willing to adjust its balance sheet normalization plans.

So the Fed took a new approach: communicating its “flexibility” to halt the selloff.

Participants observed that, although the target range for the federal funds rate was the Committee’s primary means of adjusting the stance of policy, the balance sheet normalization process should proceed in a way that supports the achievement of the Federal Reserve’s dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices.

Consistent with this principle, participants agreed that it was important to be flexible in managing the process of balance sheet normalization, and that it would be appropriate to adjust the details of balance sheet normalization plans in light of economic and financial developments if necessary to achieve the Committee’s macroeconomic objectives.

When will the QE Unwind end? Wait… there’s a slow-motion component.
Pretty soon, the Fed is going to announce its new plan: “Almost all participants thought that it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing the Federal Reserve’s asset holdings later this year.”

But here is the slow-motion component. Historically, the biggest driver of the level of assets on the Fed’s balance sheet was “currency in circulation” on the liability side. Assets have always risen with the increase of currency in circulation, which is determined by global demand for paper dollars through the banking system. Since the Financial Crisis, currency in circulation has risen more sharply than before, as folks around the world began hoarding paper dollars, and so the assets on the balance sheet, even without QE, would have risen more sharply as well.

The Fed is now considering keeping assets flat after the QE unwind ends, even as currency in circulation continues to rise. This would by definition whittle down further excess reserves, but very gradually, and effectively continue the QE unwind on super-slow-motion:
A substantial majority expected that when asset redemptions ended, the level of reserves would likely be somewhat larger than necessary for efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy; if so, many suggested that some further very gradual decline in the average level of reserves, reflecting the trend growth of other liabilities such as Federal Reserve notes in circulation, could be appropriate.


In these participants’ view, this process would allow the Federal Reserve to arrive slowly at an efficient level of reserves while maintaining good control of short-term interest rates without needing to engage in more frequent open market operations.

Only “a few participants” disagreed with this strategy. Those few participants thought that after the QE unwind ends, rather than maintaining asset levels roughly flat for years to come, the Fed “should begin adding to its assets to offset growth in nonreserve liabilities [cash in circulation], so as to keep the average level of reserves relatively stable.”


Everyone wants to get rid of MBS
The Fed’s “longstanding plan” is to “hold primarily Treasury securities in the long run.” This seems to be the consensus. Participants commented that after the QE unwind ends, “most, if not all, principal payments received from agency MBS” should be invested in Treasury securities.
In fact, some participants thought it was “unnecessary” to retain the $20-billion-per-month cap for the MBS roll-offs; that all principal payments could be allowed to roll off, which could slightly speed up the process of shedding MBS, especially if a drop in mortgage rates causes borrowers to refinance their mortgages, which would speed up pass-through principal payments to the Fed.

My proprietary Fed Hawk-o-Meter quantifies and visualizes what the Fed wishes to communicate in the minutes. Read… My Fancy-Schmancy “Fed Hawk-o-Meter” Ticks Down, Still Red-Lines. In Passing, Fed Plants Seed for Removing “Patient”

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Homeless Encampments and Luxury Apartments: Our Long Strange Boom
February 21, 2019

The cold truth is homelessness and soaring rents are the only possible outputs of central bank policies that inflate asset bubbles.

It's been a long, strange economic boom since the nadir of the Global Financial Meltdown in 2009. A 10-year long boom that saw the S&P 500 rise from 666 in early 2009 to 2,780 and GDP rise by 43% has been slightly more uneven for most participants.


First and most importantly, household income hasn't risen by the same percentages as assets, GDP or costs of big-ticket expenses such as rent, healthcare and college tuition. The broadest measure of income, median household income, has registered a 23% increase in the past decade, roughly half of GDP gains and a mere fraction of stock market and housing gains.


It's well known income gains have skewed to the top, as revealed by Census Bureau data: Historical Income Tables: Household (US Census Bureau).

The bottom quintile (20%) registered income gains of 20% from 2009 to 2017, while the middle quintile (roughly speaking, the middle class) gained 25.5% and the top 5% enjoyed a 31.6% gain.

The raw numbers tell the story in a slightly more visceral fashion:
Upper limit of bottom quintile: $24,638 up 20% since 2009
Upper limit of middle quintile: $77,552 up 25.5% since 2009

Lower limit of top 5%: $237,034 up 31.6% since 2009
(the median household income is much higher--around $350,000 according to Household Income Quintiles the Tax Policy Center.)
So the top 5% earn at a minimum 10 times the lowest quintile income and around 4 or 5 times the middle quintile income.

Here in Northern California, this has manifested in rapidly expanding homeless encampments a stone's throw away from new luxury rental apartments charging $3,000 and up for one-bedroom flats and $4,000 and up for two-bedroom flats.

Meanwhile, the streets are filled with potholes and cracks. Maintaining streets--presumably one of the core missions of local government--is simply not being done in a timely manner. Major streets are in such disrepair that local businesses have taken to raising banners demanding "pave our street now."


Let's look at three charts of the long, strange boom from 2009: median household income (up 23%), national rents (up 31%) and rent in the San Francisco Bay Area (up 52.4%). Rents are double the gains in median household income in many cities.
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https://www.oftwominds.com/photos2019/rent2-19.png

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The tens of thousands of pricey rentals being built in the region assume an endless expansion of well-paid techie jobs filled by young techies who are happy to sacrifice all hope of ever owning a home in the region ($900,000 for a 100-year old bungalow on a 5,000 square foot lot) or having a family unless they cash in on an IPO or marry a techie who already cashed in.

Sadly, the affordable housing fees collected by cities (up to $10 million per project) are not enough to address the unprecedented need for affordable housing and low-cost housing solutions for the homeless and near-homeless.

What's behind the soaring cost of housing? It's really pretty simple: the extended near-zero interest rates and unlimited liquidity pushed by the Federal Reserve as the "solution" for recession have impoverished the bottom 80% and put ownership of capital out of reach for all but the top 5%.

Though the mainstream media punditry and the political class will deny this, the cold truth is homelessness and soaring rents are the only possible outputs of central bank policies that inflate asset bubbles that inevitably outpace the wages needed to pay the soaring cost of rent and housing.


Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 ebook, $12 print, $13.08 audiobook): Read the first section for free in PDF format.


My new mystery The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake is a ridiculously affordable $1.29 (Kindle) or $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

My book Money and Work Unchained is now $6.95 for the Kindle ebook and $15 for the print edition. Read the first section for free in PDF format.


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America teeters on the precipice: our government is now captive to special interests and big money, twin cancers that threaten our democracy. This accelerating crisis is exacerbated by a toxic social media-fueled tribalism that has replaced “what do you think?” with “which side are you on?”

Our crisis isn’t just political—it’s structural: as the pace of change explodes from gradual to non-linear, the organizations that dominate our economy—centralized corporations and government—become destined to fail. We see this failure in both the soaring inequality that has hollowed out the American Dream as well as in the rising tide of social and political disunity.

To prevent the fall of our democratic republic, we must transform our economy and society from the ground up. As we enter a new era of rapid, unprecedented tumult, it is we citizens who will need to save our democracy. For our political and financial elites will cling to their centralized power, doing more of what’s failed, even as civil society unravels.

All is not lost--yet. Our way forward starts with understanding the fatal flaws of our brittle, self-serving status quo and embracing this basic truth: better options are available if we’re willing to explore.

To pathfind our way to a better destiny, we must create new localized structures optimized for resilience and adaptability—a flexible, decentralized, sustainable, democratic, opportunity-for-all nation.

Read the first section for free in PDF format.
Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic (ebook $6.95, print $12)


Recent entries:
Homeless Encampments and Luxury Apartments: Our Long Strange BoomFebruary 21, 2019
Let's Face It: The U.S. Constitution Has Failed February 20, 2019
Which One Wins: Central Planning or Adaptive Networks? February 19, 2019
Credit Exhaustion Is Global February 18, 2019
Sometimes the Best Solution Is To Leave Things As They Are February 16, 2019
What Happens When More QE Fails to Reverse the Recession? February 15, 2019
What Caused the Recession of 2019-2021? February 14, 2019
The Corporate Lemmings Who Rushed into Mobile/Social Media Ads Are Running off the Cliff February 13, 2019
We're Overdue for a Sell-Everything/No-Fed-Rescue Recession February 12, 2019
2019: The Three Trends That Matter February 11, 2019
Telltale Signs of Recession February 8, 2019
Brace for Impact February 6, 2019
China's S-Curve of Expansion, Stagnation and Decline February 5, 2019
The Coming Global Financial Crisis: Debt Exhaustion February 4, 2019
The Alt-Media Has Way More Fun than the Mainstream Media February 1, 2019


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https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ops+to+zero%29

Israeli Prime Minister Bejamin Netanyahu's reelection bid has just hit its most formidable roadblock, making his political future look increasingly bleak. Two key centrist opponents of the Israeli PM have announced an unprecedented alliance in a bid to defeat him in the upcoming April 9 elections.

The groundbreaking move marks the first major threat to Netanyahu's rule in a decade, and comes further at a sensitive moment in which he's facing possible indictment and multiple corruption allegations. Retired military chief Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid, head of the Yesh Atid party, now plan to run on a combined ticket in a highly unusual agreement for the pair to rotate as Prime Minister. The plan would see Gantz serve for two-and-a-half years, and Lapid for the same time period following.
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Image source: Reuters
They are Netanyahu's two most significant competitors in the election, and the pair said in a joint statement they are "motivated by national responsibility" to combine their powers for the sake of ousting scandal-laden and "divisive" PM Netanyahu.

"The new ruling party will bring forth a cadre of security and social leaders to ensure Israel's security and to reconnect its people and heal the divide within Israeli society," the statement said.

Gantz already has huge visibility and public appeal as the former head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), while Lapid is a former popular television host turned politician. What's being dubbed a new "Blue and White alliance" party has the support of other major Israeli generals turned politicians as well.

“Today we are changing the face of Israel,” Gantz said in a speech carried live on national television, according to The Times of Israel. “In the past decade something has gone wrong,” he said.

Gantz continued, “Israel has lost its way. The government has incited division [in Israeli society], it’s a government that divides and rules. We’re here to say, ‘enough.’ Instead of division, we want unity. Instead of extremism, we want dignity. Instead of fraction, we propose national reconciliation.”
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...te%20party.jpg


Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid of the newly formed Blue and White party give a joint a statement to the press in Tel Aviv on February 21, 2019, via The Times of Israel.
And speaking of the launch of the new 'Blue and White' party while also referencing recent scandals embroiling Netanyahu, Yair Lapid described: “We are creating a ruling party. The Israeli public will go to the polls on the 9th of April to choose what kind of country they want, what sort of country their children will live in: a country of investigations, corruption and incitement or a country of hope, resilience and a promise for the future."


He further cast Netanyahu as appealing to the extreme right in Israeli society, saying, "Netanyahu chose [racist rabbi Meir] Kahane’s people as his partners. We choose each other, and more than that, we choose the citizens of Israel."

Netanyahu is currently at the center of three complex scandals, summarized as follows:
In the first of the three cases, Israeli police allege that for years, Netanyahu and his wife Sara received gifts in the form of hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of champagne, jewelry and cigars from wealthy individuals in the United States and Australia. In exchange, Netanyahu reportedly tried to extend tax exemption legislation that would have benefitted at least one of the men involved.

In the second case, one of Netanyahu’s aides recorded lengthy conversations between the prime minister and the head of Israel’s largest opposition paper, in which they discussed making a deal where the paper would be less critical of Netanyahu.

[Third] On December 2, Israeli police accused Netanyahu of trading regulatory favors for positive media coverage of himself and his family. Over a period of five years, the prime minister reportedly intervened in the day-to-day coverage and affairs of Walla!, a news website run by the country’s telecommunications company, Bezeq.

In return, Netanyahu — in his role as minister of communications, which is one of his titles — rewarded the company by using his political power to give them more favorable regulations, despite political opposition.

Vouching for the trustworthiness of his political partner, Lapid continued, “I wouldn’t be standing here today if I didn’t believe that Benny Gantz could lead us to victory and then lead the country. He’ll be an excellent Prime Minister. I believe in him.”


Prior to announcing the joint ticket, Gantz’s new Israel Resilience party had been polling strongest after Netanyahu’s Likud. Yet success at the ballots would still require gaining a parliamentary majority, and most analysis is still acknowledging the Gantz-Lapid ticket's changes of unseating Netanyahu "a long shot" — himself busy reaching out to powerful religious-nationalist parties in a move that many observers see as a desperate pact with the "extreme right".

The timing of any potential future indictment of Netanyahu, however, could ultimately sway momentum out of his favor, so the progress of the multiple ongoing corruption investigations could have the most impact.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...uing-more-debt

Illinois Hopes to Fix $134 Billion Pension Shortfall By Issuing More Debt
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=LY4e264-
by Tyler Durden

Thu, 02/21/2019 - 14:38

Back in December we noted that the lack of basic economic common sense by its politicians led the state of Illinois to a $134 pension shortfall. Now, the latest Democrat failing to understand simple math, and that the answer to fixing a debt problem is not more debt, is billionare Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker.

Pritzker is said to be preparing his first address on the state's budget for Wednesday, where he will address his desire to issue $2 billion in bonds in order to raise cash for the state's horrifically insolvent retirement system. This is the same tactic that the state tried in 2003 which, of course, failed miserably. All the while, in the years following 2003, Illinois' credit rating has moved closer and closer to junk with the state just one notch above the embarrassing level.

Pritzker's deputy governor, Dan Hynes, thinks that the bond sale might be a way for the government to shirk its annual contributions to the funds, which is what happened 16 years ago after Governor Rod Blagojevich’s $10 billion debt sale. After the 2003 debt sale, the state failed to make sufficient annual payments into pension funds from 2005 to 2008, which added nearly $12 billion to the state's obligations.
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The hilarious thing is that even while advocating for selling more debt, people involved are claiming to have "learned from their mistakes." Robert Martwick, a state representative who chairs the House’s pension committee told Bloomberg: "This time you have people who understand the devastating effects of doing what he did."

No, Bob. You don't.

The borrowing is part of a new plan that includes – you guessed it – raising taxes, and other clinically insane and brutally useless ideas for addressing a $134 billion shortfall, like handing government assets, including office buildings, over to the retirement system. Hynes said that the $2 billion debt sale would supplement Illinois' annual contribution and would be yet another wager on the stock market. He hopes that investment earnings will reduce the amount that the state owes.

Thus, the Ponzi-like house of cards continues to grow.
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In 2010, a $3.5 billion bond was sold and used to cover the state's pension contributions before a $3.7 billion bond issuance took place in 2011.

Thad Calabrese, a professor at New York University, tried to offer a reality check. "There’s going to have to be some actual sacrifice," he said. While Calabrese is dancing around the issue a little, the facts are clear: more debt is simply not going to fix the problem and Illinois simply doesn’t seem to understand that.
A Bloomberg article uses the word "luck" in describing what's necessary for Pritzker’s plan to work. This "luck" is nothing more than a gamble that the stock market is going to move higher, despite being near all-time highs right now.

Triet Nguyen, managing partner at Axios Advisors said: "All these gimmicks with the pension bonds and trying to transfer state assets into the pension funds -- it seems more like an accounting gimmick than a true funding mechanism."

Is it still any wonder the Fed bases monetary policy on day-to-day moves in the stock market, when all idiot politicians can do is kick the can and pray the Minsky moment won't come crashing down on their heads?

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...-242-years-old

Every great civilization throughout human history has eventually collapsed, and if we want to have any hope of escaping the same fate, we need to be willing to learn some lessons from the past. Because many of the same factors that caused the collapse of previous civilizations are weighing very heavily on the United States of America today. According to the BBC, the average lifespan of a great civilization is 336 years from beginning to end. But that doesn’t mean that America will make it that long. Our nation is currently 242 years old, and there are signs of advanced social decay all around us. If we remain on the road that we are currently on, there are many that believe that complete and utter collapse is not too far away.

Ultimately, what does a “society” consist of?

According to Luke Kemp of the University of Cambridge, societies are “just complex systems composed of people and technology”…
Societies of the past and present are just complex systems composed of people and technology. The theory of “normal accidents” suggests that complex technological systems regularly give way to failure. So collapse may be a normal phenomenon for civilisations, regardless of their size and stage.
We may be more technologically advanced now. But this gives little ground to believe that we are immune to the threats that undid our ancestors. Our newfound technological abilities even bring new, unprecedented challenges to the mix.

It is not easy to keep an extremely complex society running, and there have been so many factors that have played a role in collapsing previous civilizations. War, natural disasters, environmental shifts, social degradation, economic problems and disease are just a few examples.
And as Kemp has pointed out, sometimes societies simply collapse “under the weight of their own accumulated complexity and bureaucracy”…

Collapse expert and historian Joseph Tainter has proposed that societies eventually collapse under the weight of their own accumulated complexity and bureaucracy. Societies are problem-solving collectives that grow in complexity in order to overcome new issues. However, the returns from complexity eventually reach a point of diminishing returns. After this point, collapse will eventually ensue.

Even if America wasn’t deteriorating in so many other areas, would our nation eventually collapse under the weight of our own bureaucracy as well? We have the biggest government in the history of the world, and when you total up all levels of government we literally have millions of laws, rules and regulations governing our lives today. It is a horrible system, and it is definitely not what our founders intended. To me, it makes sense that someday it could ultimately collapse as people simply stop believing in it.

In order for a civilization to function smoothly, there must be something that bonds it together. When the United States was originally established, we were united by a common set of values, but that is no longer true.
Today, America is more divided than it has been in my entire lifetime, and one of the biggest reasons is because there is no agreement about what our values should be.

Personally, I am a strong advocate for returning to the values that our nation was founded upon, and Mac Slavo echoed this sentiment in one of his recent articles…
We now have the unique advantage of being able to learn from the wreckages of societies past, but instead of doing so and freeing mankind from government, many who are enslaved continue to push for shorter chains, more violence, control, domination, and theft by the ruling class – not just of themselves, but of all others too. Collapse is imminent in our opinion, as those in control will not willingly give up their stranglehold over the tax cattle slaves.

Unfortunately, many in our society want us to go in the exact opposite direction.

As a result, the fabric of our society is literally coming apart at the seams, and this is something that Jim Quinn commented on in one of his recent articles…
Our society is now infinitely more materialistic, narcissistic, and greedy than it was in the 1950s. Moral degeneration has reached new lows, unthinkable during the relatively innocent 1950s. But the common theme is human failings, foibles, and fallacies. Whatever a culture values you get more of. Our culture values achievement, wealth and power, at any cost.

To illustrate his point, Quinn lamented the growing power that “social media influencers” now have in our society…

Rather than make up our own minds about what we like, what we wear, where we eat, or what entertainment we enjoy, we need to be influenced into our decisions by famous people who are famous for being famous. These “influencers” generate their influential power through the number of social media followers they have accumulated by posting pictures of themselves in their underwear, leaked sex tapes, nude selfies, or generally being attractive.

Most of them are low IQ mouth breathers who can’t do basic math or write a comprehensible paragraph. But those 36DD breasts and pouty lips classify them as a grade A influencer. I can’t decide whether these narcissistic icons are more pathetic or the feeble-minded wretches who are actually influenced by these vacuous bimbos. Moral degeneration of society seems to have reached a new low.

We truly are becoming a real-life version of “Idiocracy”, and it is getting worse with each passing day.


But I can think of no better example of the decline of our society than Jussie Smollett.


Here is a guy that seemingly had everything. He was on a hit show, he had lots of money and he had hordes of devoted fans that loved him.

But he threw it all away because he believed that he was entitled to more, and he was willing to do anything to get it.
Apparently he was not happy that he was making just $65,000 an episode, and so he created one of the most despicable hoaxes in American history in a desperate attempt to get his salary raised.

Piers Morgan has described him as “the most hideous, reprehensible, disgusting, snivelling little liar in America”, and I think that is about right.
But you know what?

He represents the true state of our society better than anyone else that I know. Just like Smollett, we continue to insist that we are “the good guys”, but in reality our nation has become a cesspool of just about every sort of evil that you can possibly imagine.

If we will change our ways and return to the values that the first Americans embraced, we could turn things around.


But if we continue doing the things that we are currently doing, collapse is inevitable.

And it can happen very quickly. In 390 AD, the Roman Empire covered nearly 2 million square miles and it seemed unstoppable.
But by 476 AD it was gone.

As many have said, if we do not learn from history we are doomed to repeat it.
Please wake up America.
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About the author: Michael Snyder is a nationally-syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including Get Prepared Now, The Beginning Of The Endand Living A Life That Really Matters. His articles are originally published on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News. From there, his articles are republished on dozens of other prominent websites. If you would like to republish his articles, please feel free to do so. The more people that see this information the better, and we need to wake more people up while there is still time.

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WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT MEETS FYRE FESTIVAL




“When a condition or a problem becomes too great, humans have the protection of not thinking about it. But it goes inward and minces up with a lot of other things already there and what comes out is discontent and uneasiness, guilt and a compulsion to get something–anything–before it is all gone.” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
https://www.unchartedbooks.com/pictu...g?v=1523831872 https://fashionista.com/.image/t_sha...fyre_ka_us.jpg


Sometimes I wonder about strange coincidences. In an email exchange with Marc (Hardscrabble Farmer) in the Fall, he mentioned he had begun reading Steinbeck’s Winter of Our Discontent and planned to write an article about it. Coincidentally, I had just bought a used copy of the same novel at Hooked on Books in Wildwood. I didn’t plan on buying it, but I’ve read most of Steinbeck’s brilliant novels and felt compelled by the title and our national state of discontent to select it from among the thousands of books in the store.

Marc had posted his Steinbeck-esque article in December, but I didn’t read it until I had finished the novel. Marc’s perspective on the value of money and his diametrically opposite path from Ethan Hawley, the discontented anti-hero of Steinbeck’s final novel, was enlightening and thought provoking. I’m sure it impacted my consciousness as I wrote this article.

Steinbeck’s title was taken from Shakespeare to reflect the unhappiness of Ethan Hawley at the outset of the novel. The quote, “Now is the winter of our discontent / Made glorious summer by this sun of York”, is the first line of Shakespeare’s Richard III, written in 1594. Shakespeare was using the summer/winter weather as a metaphor for the fortunes of the English House of York and its rivalry with the Plantagenets for the English throne. The ‘sun of York’ was a comment on the ‘son of York’ Edward IV, a harbinger of better times ahead. This theme of discontent was true in 1594, in 1961 when Steinbeck published his final novel, and is true today, as discontent blows across the land like a deadly polar vortex. At this point, it is difficult to see better times ahead.

The reason Steinbeck’s Nobel Prize winning novel still resonates today is because humans do not change. The human condition, our frailties, foibles, moral shortcomings, greed, avarice, narcissism, ability to forgive and seek redemption has remained constant through the ages. Steinbeck wrote the novel to address the moral degeneration of American culture during the 1950s and 1960s. The game show scandals, nativism and plagiarism of the 1950’s was representative of the decay.

Twenty-two years before, in 1939, Steinbeck addressed man’s inhumanity to man and the greed of evil men creating the suffering of the common man during the Great Depression in his classic novel Grapes of Wrath. Steinbeck’s characters have biblical aspects, as the battle between good and evil is always a subplot. If Steinbeck thought American culture had degenerated in 1961, I wonder what he would think today.
The definition of discontent is dissatisfaction with the prevailing social or political situation. If ever a word defined the current state of our world, it would be discontent. And it so happens, we are also in the depths of a bleak tumultuous winter season. The social and political discontent is reflected in the epic struggle between far-left treasonous Deep State operatives and the deplorables supporting Trump’s battle to retain the presidency.

An open coup has been in progress for two years as the Obama/Clinton surveillance state cronies, fully supported by the left-wing fake news propaganda outlets, attempt to remove a democratically elected president. This is truly a dark moment in our history and could mark a turning point in the demise of our Republic.
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“It’s so much darker when a light goes out than it would have been if it had never shone.” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
Steinbeck’s story about the moral decline of Ethan Hawley was a parable about the human condition set in the 1950s, but applicable throughout human history, and as relevant today as it was then. Ethan was a war hero whose integrity and honesty were the noble standards he lived by every day. His father recklessly lost the family fortune and he was left as a lowly grocery store clerk working for a foreigner.
It is a story of how easy it is for a good man to be corrupted through societal expectations, the opinions of prominent people, and the disapproval of family for their status in the community. The love of money is the root of all evil, as presented by Steinbeck. Ethan Hawley’s fall from grace was self-imposed as he allowed his darker nature to control his actions in order to regain his once prominent station in the community. The opinions of others considering him a failure led to his fall from grace.

“Men don’t get knocked out, or I mean they can fight back against big things. What kills them is erosion; they get nudged into failure.” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
He sacrificed his self-respect, life long friendships, and the lives of two men, in order to climb the social ladder and regain the wealth and influence his father had squandered. Ethan’s ego and sense of self worth led him down a path paved with evil intentions. He had his boss deported, provided the means for his best friend to commit suicide, planned to rob a bank, and eventually came to the realization his own disregard for morality had been passed on to his son, who saw no problem with cheating to get what he wanted in life.

Ethan knew right from wrong. He was well read. He had killed Germans fighting for his country. He willfully chose to manipulate, lie and scheme in order to achieve his materialistic ambitions. The difference between Ethan and the materialistic, delusional, dishonest masses inhabiting our country today, is his sense of guilt impelled him to take his own life. But the unwavering love of his daughter convinced him to soldier on and redeem himself.

Our society is now infinitely more materialistic, narcissistic, and greedy than it was in the 1950s. Moral degeneration has reached new lows, unthinkable during the relatively innocent 1950s. But the common theme is human failings, foibles, and fallacies. Whatever a culture values you get more of. Our culture values achievement, wealth and power, at any cost.

Achieving success through hard work, intellectual accomplishment, or a superior product is antiquated and passé. Success is achieved through regulatory capture, bribing politicians, financial engineering schemes, monopolization of markets, and the power of propaganda. As Ethan cynically expounded, strength and success, even if achieved through criminal means, is all that matters in the end. The victors write the history books.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped..._June_1940.jpg


“To most of the world success is never bad. I remember how, when Hitler moved unchecked and triumphant, many honorable men sought and found virtues in him. And Mussolini made the trains run on time, and Vichy collaborated for the good of France, and whatever else Stalin was, he was strong. Strength and success—they are above morality, above criticism. It seems, then, that it is not what you do, but how you do it and what you call it. Is there a check in men, deep in them, that stops or punishes? There doesn’t seem to be. The only punishment is for failure. In effect no crime is committed unless a criminal is caught.” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent

A modern-day parable of moral degeneration presented itself to me shortly after finishing the Steinbeck novel. I happened to stumble across a documentary about the Fyre Festival fraud on Netflix. The protagonist of this illustration of discontent and delusion was Billy McFarland. He is representative of the modern-day Ethan Hawley, except with no redeeming qualities or conscience.






He conned investors, entertainers, super models, the media, employees, and gullible millennials. His ultimate purpose was no different than Ethan Hawley’s, to be wealthy and admired by his peers. His outrageously criminal exploits were detailed in the documentary as he lied, falsified, and conducted a ponzi scheme until it all blew up in a shocking display of hubristic folly. The story is a reflection of our shallow, narcissistic, gullible, low IQ society.
https://nyppagesix.files.wordpress.c...8&h=410&crop=1


What leaps off the screen is how businesses are created out of thin air delivering no value to society. It’s all smoke, mirrors, and superficial virtue signaling designed to lure intellectual lightweights to pretend they are a mover and shaker in their social media driven world. The entire festival was designed to promote some ridiculous music booking app. These frivolous social media-based companies are built upon false narratives, self-absorbed millennials, easy money, and celebrity worship. They have zero value.

After watching how easily young people could be lured into handing over tens of thousands of dollars to this shyster because he paid some super models to do a bikini video and tweet falsehoods about the fake festival, you realize how they can believe socialism can work. Alexandrea Ocasio-Cortez is a perfect role model for these dullards and sycophants. Young people appear incapable of thinking for themselves, critically assessing situations, or going against the crowd. They want to be told what to believe and what to do.

Of course, this sickness is not confined to only young people. Our entire society is permeated with greed, narcissism and lemming-like behavior. Keeping up with the Kardashians has replaced keeping up with the Joneses. Ethan Hawley’s desire for status and respect among his peers in small town America during the 1950s is no different than the social climbing happening in our high-tech social media crazed world of today. Human nature does not change.

The Netflix documentary brought a term to my attention I had not heard before – “influencers”. The shallowness and trivial nature of our culture is captured perfectly by the essence of the importance of “influencers” to marketing products and events. The Fyre Festival was promoted on Instagram by “social media influencers” including socialite and model Kendall Jenner, Bella Hadid, and model Emily Ratajkowski, who did not disclose they had been paid to do so.
https://media.thetab.com/blogs.dir/9...ng-940x480.jpg


“In business and in politics a man must carve and maul his way through men to get to be King of the Mountain. Once there, he can be great and kind–but he must get there first.” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent

Rather than make up our own minds about what we like, what we wear, where we eat, or what entertainment we enjoy, we need to be influenced into our decisions by famous people who are famous for being famous. These “influencers” generate their influential power through the number of social media followers they have accumulated by posting pictures of themselves in their underwear, leaked sex tapes, nude selfies, or generally being attractive.

Most of them are low IQ mouth breathers who can’t do basic math or write a comprehensible paragraph. But those 36DD breasts and pouty lips classify them as a grade A influencer. I can’t decide whether these narcissistic icons are more pathetic or the feeble-minded wretches who are actually influenced by these vacuous bimbos. Moral degeneration of society seems to have reached a new low.
Billy McFarland used any means necessary to maul his way to the top. He figured if he pulled off this spectacular social media extravaganza, his new music app demand would skyrocket and he would become a superstar music business mogul like Jay-Z. As his lies and debt continued to pile up, he double downed and used his dynamic personality to convince naïve rich women into “investing” millions into his doomed to failure venture.

Ultimately, thousands of suckers landed on a Caribbean island expecting luxurious accommodations and dozens of A list entertainers, but experienced mass confusion, flimsy tent accommodations with soaked mattresses, little to no food, and a canceled concert as unpaid bands pulled out. The disaster was reported in real time through the same social media that promoted this festival farce.
https://akns-images.eonline.com/eol_...put-quality=90


“In poverty she is envious. In riches she may be a snob. Money does not change the sickness, only the symptoms” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
In the case of Billy McFarland we know the consequences of his actions. Lawsuits totaling $100 million were filed against him. He was charged with the Federal crime of wire fraud and convicted. He is currently serving six years in a Federal prison and was ordered to forfeit $26 million. Based on the warped personality I witnessed in the documentary, he will resume scamming people the second he walks out of that prison, and more suckers will eagerly hand him their money. You can’t cure stupid.

The future of fictional character Ethan Hawley is left to your imagination. He had been a moral upstanding citizen who faced a crisis of conscience and fell prey to the darker side of his nature. His boss had been deported and his best friend was dead. At the end of the novel he was left with ill-gotten wealth, a loving wife, a son who felt no guilt in cheating, and a daughter who saved his life.
I want to believe Ethan spent the rest of his life redeeming himself through his actions by doing good for the town, helping his friends achieve success, teaching his son right from wrong, using his wealth to benefit humanity, and proving to his daughter his life was worth saving. Ethan’s struggle is the existential crisis we all face as human beings. The love of money is the root of all evil. Whether we are poor, middle class or rich, when our priorities become warped by greed, narcissism, envy, or worldly desires, it only leads to discontent.
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/i...bZfE6rv63Nryyg


We see the discontent revealed by the billionaire crowd who rig markets to pillage more of the nation’s wealth. We see it among corrupt politicians being bought off by crooked corporate CEOs. We see it when media pundits broadcast fake news to push their agenda. We see it exhibited by the blatant coup attempt against a duly elected president by arrogant treasonous men who consider themselves above the law. We see it play out in office politics all over America. We see it with cheating on our taxes or lying to our spouses. We see our youth plagiarizing and cheating on tests. It seems we are a society of scammers, liars, and dishonest discontents.

Steinbeck was not one for happy endings. He pondered morality and the human condition and found it wanting. A battle between the good and evil is fought within the conscience of every human being. An inner dialogue takes place regarding every moral decision we make. The continuation of a civilized society is dependent upon more human beings choosing the path of good versus the path of evil.
We can be the most technologically advanced civilization in history, but if we allow moral degeneration to dominate our culture, our civilization will be doomed. It feels as if our society is leaning towards the dark side and this realization is leading to an epic showdown between good and evil. We are truly experiencing a winter of discontent. The winner of this battle will determine the future course of our country.
https://niallogorman.files.wordpress...2fc_b-copy.jpg

“We can shoot rockets into space but we can’t cure anger or discontent.” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
-----------------------------------------------------
The corrupt establishment will do anything to suppress sites like the Burning Platform from revealing the truth. The corporate media does this by demonetizing sites like mine by blackballing the site from advertising revenue. If you get value from this site, please keep it running with a donation.




WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT MEETS FYRE FESTIVAL




“When a condition or a problem becomes too great, humans have the protection of not thinking about it. But it goes inward and minces up with a lot of other things already there and what comes out is discontent and uneasiness, guilt and a compulsion to get something–anything–before it is all gone.” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
https://www.unchartedbooks.com/pictu...g?v=1523831872 https://fashionista.com/.image/t_sha...fyre_ka_us.jpg
Sometimes I wonder about strange coincidences. In an email exchange with Marc (Hardscrabble Farmer) in the Fall, he mentioned he had begun reading Steinbeck’s Winter of Our Discontent and planned to write an article about it. Coincidentally, I had just bought a used copy of the same novel at Hooked on Books in Wildwood. I didn’t plan on buying it, but I’ve read most of Steinbeck’s brilliant novels and felt compelled by the title and our national state of discontent to select it from among the thousands of books in the store.
Marc had posted his Steinbeck-esque article in December, but I didn’t read it until I had finished the novel. Marc’s perspective on the value of money and his diametrically opposite path from Ethan Hawley, the discontented anti-hero of Steinbeck’s final novel, was enlightening and thought provoking. I’m sure it impacted my consciousness as I wrote this article.

Steinbeck’s title was taken from Shakespeare to reflect the unhappiness of Ethan Hawley at the outset of the novel. The quote, “Now is the winter of our discontent / Made glorious summer by this sun of York”, is the first line of Shakespeare’s Richard III, written in 1594. Shakespeare was using the summer/winter weather as a metaphor for the fortunes of the English House of York and its rivalry with the Plantagenets for the English throne. The ‘sun of York’ was a comment on the ‘son of York’ Edward IV, a harbinger of better times ahead. This theme of discontent was true in 1594, in 1961 when Steinbeck published his final novel, and is true today, as discontent blows across the land like a deadly polar vortex. At this point, it is difficult to see better times ahead.
The reason Steinbeck’s Nobel Prize winning novel still resonates today is because humans do not change. The human condition, our frailties, foibles, moral shortcomings, greed, avarice, narcissism, ability to forgive and seek redemption has remained constant through the ages. Steinbeck wrote the novel to address the moral degeneration of American culture during the 1950s and 1960s. The game show scandals, nativism and plagiarism of the 1950’s was representative of the decay.
Twenty-two years before, in 1939, Steinbeck addressed man’s inhumanity to man and the greed of evil men creating the suffering of the common man during the Great Depression in his classic novel Grapes of Wrath. Steinbeck’s characters have biblical aspects, as the battle between good and evil is always a subplot. If Steinbeck thought American culture had degenerated in 1961, I wonder what he would think today.
The definition of discontent is dissatisfaction with the prevailing social or political situation. If ever a word defined the current state of our world, it would be discontent. And it so happens, we are also in the depths of a bleak tumultuous winter season. The social and political discontent is reflected in the epic struggle between far-left treasonous Deep State operatives and the deplorables supporting Trump’s battle to retain the presidency.
An open coup has been in progress for two years as the Obama/Clinton surveillance state cronies, fully supported by the left-wing fake news propaganda outlets, attempt to remove a democratically elected president. This is truly a dark moment in our history and could mark a turning point in the demise of our Republic.
https://templeadasisrael.org/sites/d...ain_street.jpg
“It’s so much darker when a light goes out than it would have been if it had never shone.” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
Steinbeck’s story about the moral decline of Ethan Hawley was a parable about the human condition set in the 1950s, but applicable throughout human history, and as relevant today as it was then. Ethan was a war hero whose integrity and honesty were the noble standards he lived by every day. His father recklessly lost the family fortune and he was left as a lowly grocery store clerk working for a foreigner.
It is a story of how easy it is for a good man to be corrupted through societal expectations, the opinions of prominent people, and the disapproval of family for their status in the community. The love of money is the root of all evil, as presented by Steinbeck. Ethan Hawley’s fall from grace was self-imposed as he allowed his darker nature to control his actions in order to regain his once prominent station in the community. The opinions of others considering him a failure led to his fall from grace.
“Men don’t get knocked out, or I mean they can fight back against big things. What kills them is erosion; they get nudged into failure.” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
He sacrificed his self-respect, life long friendships, and the lives of two men, in order to climb the social ladder and regain the wealth and influence his father had squandered. Ethan’s ego and sense of self worth led him down a path paved with evil intentions. He had his boss deported, provided the means for his best friend to commit suicide, planned to rob a bank, and eventually came to the realization his own disregard for morality had been passed on to his son, who saw no problem with cheating to get what he wanted in life.
Ethan knew right from wrong. He was well read. He had killed Germans fighting for his country. He willfully chose to manipulate, lie and scheme in order to achieve his materialistic ambitions. The difference between Ethan and the materialistic, delusional, dishonest masses inhabiting our country today, is his sense of guilt impelled him to take his own life. But the unwavering love of his daughter convinced him to soldier on and redeem himself.
Our society is now infinitely more materialistic, narcissistic, and greedy than it was in the 1950s. Moral degeneration has reached new lows, unthinkable during the relatively innocent 1950s. But the common theme is human failings, foibles, and fallacies. Whatever a culture values you get more of. Our culture values achievement, wealth and power, at any cost.
Achieving success through hard work, intellectual accomplishment, or a superior product is antiquated and passé. Success is achieved through regulatory capture, bribing politicians, financial engineering schemes, monopolization of markets, and the power of propaganda. As Ethan cynically expounded, strength and success, even if achieved through criminal means, is all that matters in the end. The victors write the history books.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped..._June_1940.jpg
“To most of the world success is never bad. I remember how, when Hitler moved unchecked and triumphant, many honorable men sought and found virtues in him. And Mussolini made the trains run on time, and Vichy collaborated for the good of France, and whatever else Stalin was, he was strong. Strength and success—they are above morality, above criticism. It seems, then, that it is not what you do, but how you do it and what you call it. Is there a check in men, deep in them, that stops or punishes? There doesn’t seem to be. The only punishment is for failure. In effect no crime is committed unless a criminal is caught.” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
A modern-day parable of moral degeneration presented itself to me shortly after finishing the Steinbeck novel. I happened to stumble across a documentary about the Fyre Festival fraud on Netflix. The protagonist of this illustration of discontent and delusion was Billy McFarland. He is representative of the modern-day Ethan Hawley, except with no redeeming qualities or conscience.






He conned investors, entertainers, super models, the media, employees, and gullible millennials. His ultimate purpose was no different than Ethan Hawley’s, to be wealthy and admired by his peers. His outrageously criminal exploits were detailed in the documentary as he lied, falsified, and conducted a ponzi scheme until it all blew up in a shocking display of hubristic folly. The story is a reflection of our shallow, narcissistic, gullible, low IQ society.
https://nyppagesix.files.wordpress.c...8&h=410&crop=1
What leaps off the screen is how businesses are created out of thin air delivering no value to society. It’s all smoke, mirrors, and superficial virtue signaling designed to lure intellectual lightweights to pretend they are a mover and shaker in their social media driven world. The entire festival was designed to promote some ridiculous music booking app. These frivolous social media-based companies are built upon false narratives, self-absorbed millennials, easy money, and celebrity worship. They have zero value.
After watching how easily young people could be lured into handing over tens of thousands of dollars to this shyster because he paid some super models to do a bikini video and tweet falsehoods about the fake festival, you realize how they can believe socialism can work. Alexandrea Ocasio-Cortez is a perfect role model for these dullards and sycophants. Young people appear incapable of thinking for themselves, critically assessing situations, or going against the crowd. They want to be told what to believe and what to do.
Of course, this sickness is not confined to only young people. Our entire society is permeated with greed, narcissism and lemming-like behavior. Keeping up with the Kardashians has replaced keeping up with the Joneses. Ethan Hawley’s desire for status and respect among his peers in small town America during the 1950s is no different than the social climbing happening in our high-tech social media crazed world of today. Human nature does not change.
The Netflix documentary brought a term to my attention I had not heard before – “influencers”. The shallowness and trivial nature of our culture is captured perfectly by the essence of the importance of “influencers” to marketing products and events. The Fyre Festival was promoted on Instagram by “social media influencers” including socialite and model Kendall Jenner, Bella Hadid, and model Emily Ratajkowski, who did not disclose they had been paid to do so.
https://media.thetab.com/blogs.dir/9...ng-940x480.jpg
“In business and in politics a man must carve and maul his way through men to get to be King of the Mountain. Once there, he can be great and kind–but he must get there first.” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
Rather than make up our own minds about what we like, what we wear, where we eat, or what entertainment we enjoy, we need to be influenced into our decisions by famous people who are famous for being famous. These “influencers” generate their influential power through the number of social media followers they have accumulated by posting pictures of themselves in their underwear, leaked sex tapes, nude selfies, or generally being attractive.
Most of them are low IQ mouth breathers who can’t do basic math or write a comprehensible paragraph. But those 36DD breasts and pouty lips classify them as a grade A influencer. I can’t decide whether these narcissistic icons are more pathetic or the feeble-minded wretches who are actually influenced by these vacuous bimbos. Moral degeneration of society seems to have reached a new low.
Billy McFarland used any means necessary to maul his way to the top. He figured if he pulled off this spectacular social media extravaganza, his new music app demand would skyrocket and he would become a superstar music business mogul like Jay-Z. As his lies and debt continued to pile up, he double downed and used his dynamic personality to convince naïve rich women into “investing” millions into his doomed to failure venture.
Ultimately, thousands of suckers landed on a Caribbean island expecting luxurious accommodations and dozens of A list entertainers, but experienced mass confusion, flimsy tent accommodations with soaked mattresses, little to no food, and a canceled concert as unpaid bands pulled out. The disaster was reported in real time through the same social media that promoted this festival farce.
https://akns-images.eonline.com/eol_...put-quality=90
“In poverty she is envious. In riches she may be a snob. Money does not change the sickness, only the symptoms” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
In the case of Billy McFarland we know the consequences of his actions. Lawsuits totaling $100 million were filed against him. He was charged with the Federal crime of wire fraud and convicted. He is currently serving six years in a Federal prison and was ordered to forfeit $26 million. Based on the warped personality I witnessed in the documentary, he will resume scamming people the second he walks out of that prison, and more suckers will eagerly hand him their money. You can’t cure stupid.
The future of fictional character Ethan Hawley is left to your imagination. He had been a moral upstanding citizen who faced a crisis of conscience and fell prey to the darker side of his nature. His boss had been deported and his best friend was dead. At the end of the novel he was left with ill-gotten wealth, a loving wife, a son who felt no guilt in cheating, and a daughter who saved his life.
I want to believe Ethan spent the rest of his life redeeming himself through his actions by doing good for the town, helping his friends achieve success, teaching his son right from wrong, using his wealth to benefit humanity, and proving to his daughter his life was worth saving. Ethan’s struggle is the existential crisis we all face as human beings. The love of money is the root of all evil. Whether we are poor, middle class or rich, when our priorities become warped by greed, narcissism, envy, or worldly desires, it only leads to discontent.
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/i...bZfE6rv63Nryyg
We see the discontent revealed by the billionaire crowd who rig markets to pillage more of the nation’s wealth. We see it among corrupt politicians being bought off by crooked corporate CEOs. We see it when media pundits broadcast fake news to push their agenda. We see it exhibited by the blatant coup attempt against a duly elected president by arrogant treasonous men who consider themselves above the law. We see it play out in office politics all over America. We see it with cheating on our taxes or lying to our spouses. We see our youth plagiarizing and cheating on tests. It seems we are a society of scammers, liars, and dishonest discontents.
Steinbeck was not one for happy endings. He pondered morality and the human condition and found it wanting. A battle between the good and evil is fought within the conscience of every human being. An inner dialogue takes place regarding every moral decision we make. The continuation of a civilized society is dependent upon more human beings choosing the path of good versus the path of evil.
We can be the most technologically advanced civilization in history, but if we allow moral degeneration to dominate our culture, our civilization will be doomed. It feels as if our society is leaning towards the dark side and this realization is leading to an epic showdown between good and evil. We are truly experiencing a winter of discontent. The winner of this battle will determine the future course of our country.
https://niallogorman.files.wordpress...2fc_b-copy.jpg
“We can shoot rockets into space but we can’t cure anger or discontent.” ― John Steinbeck, The Winter of Our Discontent
-----------------------------------------------------
The corrupt establishment will do anything to suppress sites like the Burning Platform from revealing the truth. The corporate media does this by demonetizing sites like mine by blackballing the site from advertising revenue. If you get value from this site, please keep it running with a donation.

Good Morning Benjamin,

Wow, great return!!!! Is this your Real Account??

Good morning

My real account is my corporate account so I cannot make the results public. I can of course always share the results with my corporation shareholders. My demo account results and my real funds account is the same as I only use the demo to teach people so they learn the proper Forex trading methods.


Benjamin

Did you get any chance to set my account? I am very excited to learn my first lesson this weekend or next week probably.

sorry I meant Plateform.

Hello

I will do it shortly. Thank You


Benjamin

I have now done it for you. Have a nice weekend.


Benjamin