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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #58,121
  • Feb 17, 2019 1:55pm Feb 17, 2019 1:55pm
Quoting antmindset
Hi All, I just completed 200 pages of the thread. It took 2 months to do so. I am trying FTI approach in Demo account. Still long way to go. Once mindset, mo, mm are internalize i will start from page 201 to read more. I need to re-read those pages again. CookieMonsta, How your long sword doing? any luck with FTI, i read few pages where in you asked and he is not reveling it. I will take at least 1 year to reach at that point in this thread, but i am not in hurry. LEt me polish short sword,...
You read 200 pages of conversations? Now I know what the true patience is! How much time did you spend on it?
  • #58,122
  • Feb 17, 2019 1:56pm Feb 17, 2019 1:56pm
Quoting antmindset
Hi All, I just completed 200 pages of the thread. It took 2 months to do so. I am trying FTI approach in Demo account. Still long way to go. Once mindset, mo, mm are internalize i will start from page 201 to read more. I need to re-read those pages again. CookieMonsta, How your long sword doing? any luck with FTI, i read few pages where in you asked and he is not reveling it. I will take at least 1 year to reach at that point in this thread, but i am not in hurry. LEt me polish short sword,...
You read 200 pages of conversations? Now I know what the true patience is! How much time did you spend on it?
  • #58,123
  • Feb 17, 2019 2:44pm Feb 17, 2019 2:44pm
Quoting dispersion
{quote} You read 200 pages of conversations? Now I know what the true patience is! How much time did you spend on it?
2 months, he reads too much, you read nothing at all.
  • #58,124
  • Edited 8:28pm Feb 17, 2019 7:55pm | Edited 8:28pm
Quoting antmindset
Hi All, I just completed 200 pages of the thread. It took 2 months to do so. I am trying FTI approach in Demo account. Still long way to go. Once mindset, mo, mm are internalize i will start from page 201 to read more. I need to re-read those pages again. CookieMonsta, How your long sword doing? any luck with FTI, i read few pages where in you asked and he is not reveling it. I will take at least 1 year to reach at that point in this thread, but i am not in hurry. LEt me polish short sword,...

Well, I won't reveal anything indepth here, since many consider it out of topic and deviating from the thread, but if you do want to know more, I have written some of my findings in my journal, namely that adjustment cost is a huge factor for retail trading of options, so the more barebones the strategy the better, favouring adjustments mainly from spot so it's only going to be delta adjustments, for short vols strategy, it yields nothing much now since volatility premium (5~8%) currently is pretty low. Gamma scalping is viable but you must polish your short sword mo since gamma scalping relies on it, and you need find ways to assess implied vols is underpriced to realized vols. 1 way to go is to figure out how to do delta neutral trading, on long straddles, and understand the meaning of the black and scholes formulae and what happens if you misjudge the volatility. Also btw, selling naked options is usually a bad idea, especially since now since markets ebb and flow seems to point to that flash crash is not so uncommon these days, so try to do more trades with capped down side, or simply be trying to do gamma scalping.

Btw what I highlighted are only the basics, you still have to understand how to read terrain and dance terrain with respect to the Greeks. In spot trading, you are dealing with delta 1 so you only have delta and sigma(book speed and size), for the options you need deal with gamma, theta and Vega as well. Also for terrain, volatility and speed of market matters alot. (Imagine buying calls spreads at 50pips premium and selling for 75, when market moves 100pips, and you profit only 25pips)
  • #58,125
  • Feb 18, 2019 3:26am Feb 18, 2019 3:26am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Well, I won't reveal anything indepth here, since many consider it out of topic and deviating from the thread, but if you do want to know more, I have written some of my findings in my journal, namely that adjustment cost is a huge factor for retail trading of options, so the more barebones the strategy the better, favouring adjustments mainly from spot so it's only going to be delta adjustments, for short vols strategy, it yields nothing much now since volatility premium (5~8%) currently is pretty low. Gamma scalping is viable but you must...
Thank you CookieMonsta. that is intense. I will trouble you again for this, no not now, after a year or so. I know i am not ready for this understanding yet. I will focus on basic MO of FTI.

Many thanks.

Happy trading.

-Ant
  • #58,126
  • Feb 18, 2019 3:33am Feb 18, 2019 3:33am
Quoting antmindset
{quote} Thank you CookieMonsta. that is intense. I will trouble you again for this, no not now, after a year or so. I know i am not ready for this understanding yet. I will focus on basic MO of FTI. Many thanks. Happy trading. -Ant
No probs.

Well, to be honest, apart from the basic form and Greeks and volatility concepts, the basic mindset and lessons here still apply to trading options, just that maybe the move set may be abit different and some strategies we explicitly do not do, like naked shorts.
  • #58,127
  • Feb 18, 2019 8:45pm Feb 18, 2019 8:45pm
Golden book has arrived......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #58,128
  • Feb 19, 2019 1:21pm Feb 19, 2019 1:21pm
Quoting antmindset
Golden book has arrived...... {image}
not meant to be a replacement but picture speaks louder than words

Inserted Video
  • #58,129
  • Feb 19, 2019 1:29pm Feb 19, 2019 1:29pm
Quoting antmindset
{quote} Thank you CookieMonsta. that is intense. I will trouble you again for this, no not now, after a year or so. I know i am not ready for this understanding yet. I will focus on basic MO of FTI. Many thanks. Happy trading. -Ant
The first success ever in trading came from options. Basically i used to play with horizontals and diagonals. Actual money came from adding on to winning side (+ve or -ve delta). then i became social and was unable to maintain the winning ways.

now i have some success with CRUDE OIL trades, was dreaming of selling slightly / far OTM options while dancing successfully. To be precise, this should be done at the time of scaling out of attacks.

well this is all dream yet. will update after i start trading in real account.
  • #58,130
  • Feb 19, 2019 8:09pm Feb 19, 2019 8:09pm
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Arenysdemar, Very briefly - maybe because the graphics (charts) are depicting what the price has already done (in past - tic, minute ago, etc.), not otherwise. Almost each broker is drawing its own graph, especially on spikes, sudden moves - stop hunts. One may find even about 100 - 200 pips of difference in such occasions (I did notice it myself, e.g., along with the first Brexit down spikes). Later-on they were trying to make their graphs similar to a general picture and you won't see that difference on even Daily charts weeks aftermath....
Thank you for full explanation. It makes sense that graphs differ a lot and now I understand that reading them correctly takes a lot of skills and knowledge as well.
  • #58,131
  • Edited 12:57am Feb 20, 2019 12:36am | Edited 12:57am
Quoting arenysdemar
{quote} Thank you for full explanation. It makes sense that graphs differ a lot and now I understand that reading them correctly takes a lot of skills and knowledge as well.
Hello Arenysdemar,

Thank you for your kind feedback. I do agree with your conclusion.
Although it would be worth noting that my explanation wasn't absolutely full nor explicit.
For instance, some brokers draw also those European Sunday evening graphs as regards Australian - NZ (ANZ) session thus adding a Day bar (candle) and somehow correcting a weekly one, putting as well different count for Day or 4H candles. E.g., one of my chart depicts the ANZ but Day starts at GMT. I also used to have two different charts recording DAX 24 hours on one and only Frankfurt - London session on another, etc.
Please don't take me as too meticulous and reiterative in my comment since I should specify that the correct charts reading would satisfy a technical analyst but not make a professional trader (it's just one important pillar).

Trade safe,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,132
  • Feb 20, 2019 6:21am Feb 20, 2019 6:21am
Hi All,

Started reading first 200 pages for 2nd time. ( I have complied a word document for this which is 400 pages long thats why it took 2 months). Can someone help me in understanding what "Rubber band effect is" and "time Window" which FTI has mentioned. I have some understanding by reading it but still i am not able to grasp the structure of it.

Any help is appreciated.

-Ant
  • #58,133
  • Edited 8:06am Feb 20, 2019 6:26am | Edited 8:06am
Quoting antmindset
Hi All, Started reading first 200 pages for 2nd time. ( I have complied a word document for this which is 400 pages long thats why it took 2 months). Can someone help me in understanding what "Rubber band effect is" and "time Window" which FTI has mentioned. I have some understanding by reading it but still i am not able to grasp the structure of it. Any help is appreciated. -Ant

What do you think rubber band means ? Think pullback nature versus impulse resuming after the pullback back with trend. Think retailers shorting in uptrend pullback that makes the dealers long but they keep buying at discount then price hits big orders/ducks what do you think happens next (trend kicks in) - how would that feel?

Search thread for time window and rubber band - think you will find your answers in thread and lots of nice tips. This is an amazing book.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,134
  • Feb 20, 2019 10:39am Feb 20, 2019 10:39am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} What do you think rubber band means ? Think pullback nature versus impulse resuming after the pullback back with trend. Think retailers shorting in uptrend pullback that makes the dealers long but they keep buying at discount then price hits big orders/ducks what do you think happens next (trend kicks in) - how would that feel? Search thread for time window and rubber band - think you will find your answers in thread and lots of nice tips. This is an amazing book. Alex
awesome, thanks alot Alex. really appreciate it.
  • #58,135
  • Feb 21, 2019 5:40am Feb 21, 2019 5:40am
Quoting antmindset
{quote} awesome, thanks alot Alex. really appreciate it.

No probs if it helps.

Remember also you may be in a lower time frame trend when higher time frame trend kicks in (or not)......you will feel it.

Think trend + impulse... (and news Ro3k etc of course)

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,136
  • Edited 11:37am Feb 21, 2019 9:45am | Edited 11:37am
Hi All,

Wisdom from FTI

PART1
-------

---------------------------------------------------------...
  • #58,137
  • Feb 21, 2019 12:57pm Feb 21, 2019 12:57pm
another video on art of war

Inserted Video
  • #58,138
  • Feb 22, 2019 3:36am Feb 22, 2019 3:36am
Quoting dispersion
{quote} You read 200 pages of conversations? Now I know what the true patience is! How much time did you spend on it?
You will be better equipped to trade in the market once you learn how the markets work. You won't find it here. Coursera might be a good place to start. Too many newbies, come to the site in the hope of the holy grail. You have to realize that FF is a newbie swamp, less than 1% of the people here know what they are doing, and only a few people from that 1% fully share their findings.

If you want to be among the 1%, you have to realize that FF is a Forex broker backed website. They make their money when newbies come to their site and trade with brokers who are wolves what to pray on this forums sheep.

You won't ever learn anything of significant value here, go to the people who truly know what they are talking about - and have no problems sharing it. People who have significant assets under management and have no issues sharing what they know, rather than trying to decipher what some guru claims.
  • #58,139
  • Feb 22, 2019 3:41am Feb 22, 2019 3:41am
Quoting split_unit
{quote} You will be better equipped to trade in the market once you learn how the markets work. You won't find it here......

Then do not visit TAF.... peeps are free to take from here what they will and works for them or leave it......guru???


Peeps often come here to disrupt... if not for you then no need visit.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,140
  • Feb 22, 2019 3:56am Feb 22, 2019 3:56am
Quoting split_unit
{quote} You will be better equipped to trade in the market once you learn how the markets work. You won't find it here. Coursera might be a good place to start. Too many newbies, come to the site in the hope of the holy grail. You have to realize that FF is a newbie swamp, less than 1% of the people here know what they are doing, and only a few people from that 1% fully share their findings. If you want to be among the 1%, you have to realize that FF is a Forex broker backed website. They make their money when newbies come to their site and trade...

You obviously have not read anything here and of course it makes perfect sense to pay $15-25k for what you can get for free, good business model you have there.

Good luck, looks you are going to need it…
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
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